SF Giants Shakeup: Thairo Estrada, Taylor Rogers Placed on Irrevocable Waivers

Tyro Estrada and Taylor Rogers placed on irrevocable waivers why yes there is a cost cutting element to this but more so than anything this is a move a couple of moves by the Giants that indicate what their plans are for 2025 you are locked on Giants your daily San Francisco Giants podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello and welcome to locked on Giants part of the locked on podcast Network where it's your team every day my name is Ben kaspik and on the show we provide daily episodes Monday through Friday talking about the San Francisco Giants in a way that's datadriven and rational but also simple passionate and accessible to all I'm a former contributor for the baseball statistics and Analysis websites beyond the box score and rotographs I've been podcasting about the Giants since 2015 been hosting this show for 5 and a half years and I'm a lifelong Giants fan thank you for making lock on Giants your first listen every day we're free and available wherever you get your podcast including YouTube so check us out there if you have not already and please hit that subscribe button wherever it is that you're following the show today's episode is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase terms apply download game time today what time is it it's game time and coming up on today's show the Giants have placed uh Tyro Estrada and Taylor Rogers and Tyler mazik who you may not even be aware is on the team given that he's on a rehab assignment and they acquired him in the the Jorge cair deal and he's kind of a non-factor here but notably Tyro Estrada and Taylor Rogers placed on irrevocable waivers so what does that mean exactly we'll break that down and and why you know yes there is a like cost cutting element to this but more so than anything the most interesting part of this is what it says about their intentions for 2025 when it comes to building out the roster particularly in the case of Tyro Estrada I think for Taylor Rogers this move has more to do with cost cutting uh and reallocation of resources hopefully from the Giants perspective is there opinion here but anyway so irrevocable waivers basically means that these players are just out there exposed uh and every single team can make a any any team can make a claim on any one of these three players Estrada Rogers and mazik and the way it works is that you know it's in reverse order of winning current winning percentage so like say all the teams claimed somebody then the team with the worst record would be the white socks they would win the claim and they would get the player and irrevocable means the Giants can't like I heard Dave Fleming you know who's great uh say on the Giants broadcast today that the Giants could pull the player back but they cannot do that they these are irrevocable waivers so any team that makes a claim on any of these players um if any team makes a claim then they're gone and that player goes to the team with you know if multiple claims are made the team the team that's worse uh gets the player and so it's very interesting from a roster construction perspective because Tyro Estrada in particular is under team control through 2026 and so this just goes to show you how rough of a year it has been offensively for Estrada who his walk rate is 2.6% which is probably the lowest in the sport minimum he's had 380 plate appearances we will look and see where some of these numbers rank I mean the numbers have been abysmal offensively but he's maintained like excellent defense last year put up a three and a half fan graphs War season which is very good and the year before that 2.8 fan graphs wins above replacement and this year just half a fan graph win above replacement in like I said well this was 378 plate appearances coming into today's game so it's just been that bad of a year offensively his Chase rates have kind of trended in the wrong direction every year since joining the Giants in 52 games in 2021 he swung at 30% of pitches out of the Zone in the last couple of years he's strike he's swinging at 40% of pitches out of the zone so chasing has just become a big issue with Estrada but what's important to keep in mind here is that he is on an arbitration salary so those are kind of artificially low or not artificially but like those are just lower than market value salaries generally otherwise players get non-tendered um and so this clearly indicates that the Giants were planning on non- tendering Tyro Estrada um because they're willing to give him away for nothing which is a essentially what non- tendering a player does you're releasing them into free agency with no compensation and so if you are planning on doing that anyway it makes sense to place the player on waivers here if you're not in contention and so this is also a waving of the White Flag although it's again it's not like Estrada is providing much value at the present moment and this really could be a time when they give that spot to like Marco Luciano and just let him play every day at second base which I think a lot of people would say they should have done a while ago but Estrada is making just $4.7 million this season and so he would cost a claiming team somewhere in the neighborhood of $110,000 for the remainder of the season because it's pro-rated the Giants have already paid basically 56 of the salary and so a claiming team would just have to pay $800,000 for uh Tyro Estrada they would you know the claim would be the the waiver process will be over by uh I think uh tomorrow the 30th of August and so that then if Rogers or Estrada or maik is claimed then the claiming team would be able to have that player on their postseason roster and so there is a solid chance that Tyro Estrada gets claimed and in which case like I said irrevocable he would be gone and would go to whatever team has the worst winning percentage among any claiming team and so four yeah $4.7 million salary equates to 810,000 roughly this season and that team could also non-tender him in the off season so it's a very lowrisk move to get a player who at the very least uh provides you with some speed and and some really good defense and has been a solid bat I mean in his Giants career not counting today's game he has been a little bit below average that's how bad this season has been cu the three years prior he was never once below average he was about 5% above average overall in his Giants career coming into this season and this season has been so bad that now he's been about 5% below average overall in his Giants career and so like like I said it means that they were planning to non-tender Estrada anyway and it also like there's also other ramifications like does this mean that they are planning to Tender a contract to Mike yky who's someone we've talked about as being a non-tender candidate because if they are um it could also mean that they don't have someone in the Outfield that they want to give that playing time to down the stretch whereas Marco Luciano is deserving of that opportunity so it it doesn't necessarily mean that about a Mike shmy but it does mean that about Tyro Estrada and so anyway I just want to quickly look minimum he's had 380 uh or coming into today 378 plate appearances so if we just set the minimum to 350 plate appearances and look at the worst weighted runs created Plus numbers in the league Estrada is second worst at 66 and in terms of on base percentage he is worst dead last this is coming into today and then today he went 0 for three uh so the numbers went down um worst on base percentage in baseball at 249 and the walk rate at 2.6 is the lowest in baseball so yeah I mean but for $810,000 there's definitely a chance he could be claimed based on past track record and based on how he's still been a good Defender at second base and can at the very least Prov some kind of a veteran presence for some playoff hopeful team that has a need at that spot so anyway we'll talk more about this get into Taylor Rogers and Tyler matsik and the what it means about 2025 because there is a big kind of underlying uh message being sent here that we have to interpret and we'll get into it in just a minute and before we do today's episode of Locked on Giants is brought to you in part by liquid IV uh liquid IV is my absolute favorite thing uh to drink right now get hydrated with electrolytes like me essential vitamins and clinically tested nutrients from the number one powdered hydration brand in America because baseball and summer go together like liquid IV and indulgent hydration if you're watching on YouTube you can see I've got two different flavors here right in front of me uh there are many benefits to drinking liquid IV like staying hydrated while traveling going to summer festivals or after a night out blast off with the iconic summer flavor of popsicle firecracker which is delicious I just 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roster construction element uh for 2025 that we haven't fully gotten into that I'm going to explain next thanks again for making locked on Giants your first listen every day for your second listen enjoy the lock on MLB podcast host Paul Sullivan AKA Sully is here daily to provide National expertise with his trademark humor to help you get ready for the MLB playoffs here in the dog days of summer prepare for the fall classic with Sully who has it all covered every single day on locked on MLB available on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day and so just one of the things I want to say here is that the other day we were doing a mail bag episode and there was a question about the Giants filling holes through free agency like which free agents out there should the Giants Target to fill holes and I made the point that they didn't really they don't they're not really a team that has quote unquote holes on their roster I don't like that term for the Giants right now I think that what you have is like and it's reflected in their record right their record is 500 which means average I I know they're one game under but currently it's imposs POs to be 500 because they've played an odd number of games and so they'll probably win against the Marlins and be back at 500 tomorrow um and so they're not a team that's full of holes they're a team that's in need of upgrades at spots where they have like competent yet not impactful players and Tyro Estrada is one of those guys and so I mentioned him I mentioned Lamont Wade uh at first I mentioned Mike yky and right just possible spots where they could afford to to upgrade and this placing of Estrada on waivers indicates that that is a position where they intend to upgrade in the off season and when I look at the free agent class we went through it and you know it was apparent that there's really one true impact player in Juan sto and we all know it's very unlikely very very unlikely that Wan SoDo is going to end up on the Giants like many of you don't even want me to mention his name and I understand it um but when we look at okay so who you know the Giants are very active typically in the off season they do make a lot of free agent signings typically they spent they committed more money than any team but the Dodgers this past off season and you know the motivation should be very high to get to the playoffs and I I understand the frustration I'm very frustrated myself as I said a lifelong fan I mean I'm not having fun watching them miss the playoffs every year either and so I get all that I get the frustration trust me um but when I look at who's out there in free agency and we look at where could they possibly upgrade I look at someone like a Hung Kim and I look at basically middle infield and I'm looking at middle infield now especially because of of this move to place Estrada on waivers because even if he doesn't get claimed and again I think there's a pretty good chance he does given the low low cost but the performance offensively has been so bad there's definitely a chance he doesn't get claimed in which case he would just stay on the Giants they could designate him for assignment like they could do that um and maybe they would if he doesn't get claimed but um the point is the free agent class has some interesting middle infielders is what I'm trying to say and that includes glaber Torres that includes Willie adamus and it includes Hung Kim and I think those are kind of the quote unquote prizes of the middle infield class and importantly significantly none of those players are like Superstar players not that that's a good thing that oh I'm saying you're not going to get a superstar player but what I think they are are players who are attainable because you know these guys who command $300 million deals it's just hard to you know basically they have their choice of teams when it comes down to it whereas when you've got first of all Hung Kim is best friends with Jung Huli he's played for Bob Melvin and loved playing for Bob Melvin I know there's a a significant amount of people out there who don't want Bob Melvin managing the Giants anymore but assuming he is you know I think what's important what I'm the point I'm trying to make is these players seem attainable to me I think Hung Kim is attainable I think that will adamus is potentially attainable um and so it gives the Giants options outside of Juan sto and the long shot that he represents uh to come to to to to land these free agents and so you look at a guy like Kim and he's just exceptionally selective I mean we talked about Estrada's Chase rate being about 40% Kim is consistently in the low 20s and so you know they really the Giants really emphasize and want their team to be about you know Grinders and players who don't chase and Estrada as good as he was and it wasn't like great like I've said it's not impact production but it's like solid Major League caliber production until this year um the chasing is like is not what you're looking for and so Kim is like the antithesis of that and is excellent defensively and so could you play I mean Kim has played a little bit of second base uh he's played primarily shortstop but you know we've talked about Tyler Fitzgerald and so could you slide Tyler Fitzgerald over to second base in this scenario I think of course you could uh Tyler Fitzgerald has played I'm assuming I'm trying to uh remember but I should just pull it up uh of course I write Tyler Fitz and it's not showing up on fan graphs I have to write the whole name before it shows up uh he has played six games at second base this year 47 at shorts stop coming into today so uh not a ton of Major League Innings at second base and in the minor leagues uh I'm not quickly able to see but the the the returns in a small sample where that he was effective at second base and so I don't know it just opens up a whole other segment of the market that if you're committed to Estrada and Fitzgerald or something that you're kind of closed off from and so what this means is they opening up themselves to this new free agent segment of the market that in my opinion contains three attainable players I I would say most likely Hung Kim or Willie adamus and part of What's significant about these three players glaber Torres Hassan Kim and Willie adamus is their age Hung Kim is just 28 he's going to turn 29 in October and that is relatively young for a player who's going to be a free AG agent there is a mutual option I don't think it gets picked up it's a uh I I need to see but Mutual options almost never get picked up and I I really doubt that he picks that up it's an $8 million Mutual option yeah there's no chance that that like hasson Kim is going to reject his end of that Mutual option and hit the free agent market and for willia damas he's 28 and turns 29 uh in a few days on September 2nd and for Gaber Torres who's also not having himself a great season by the way he is 27 and doesn't turn 28 until December and so we're talking about two uh 29y olds and a 28-year-old and that's young for free agency and so I think adamus and Kim in particular stand out as now potential players who could end up on the Giants in my opinion and the putting of Tyler of Tyro Estrada on irrevocable waivers here is what indicates that to me so coming up in just a minute we'll get into the other players Taylor Rogers and Tyler matsik the odds of them getting claimed why the Giants put them on waivers what it means and if it has 2025 implications as well we'll get into all of that in just a minute and before we do today's episode of Locked on Giants is brought to you in part by prize pick prize pick is America's number one daily fantasy sports app with over five million active members myself included prize pick is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports unlike other apps on prize picks it's just you against the 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the $50 bonus it's guaranteed prize picks run your game all right here we go we're going to get into the other players placed on waivers by the Giants Taylor Rogers and Tyler mazik and so when we talked about some of the incentive here was about money this is where this is more of what we're talking about when it comes to Taylor Rogers thanks again for making lockdown Giants your first listen every day every dayers tomorrow I'm going to hope to wait until uh until these claims have been processed I do believe it doesn't seem to me that anyone has written about when exactly these claims are going to get processed or you know claims not necessarily claims but these players are these waiver whatever moves are going to get processed but I do believe it is the 30th of August because players placed on waivers today are going to be processed on the 3st and so the Giants put these players on waivers on the 30 or on the 28th yesterday per sources per Ken Rosenthal and Grant brisbee of the athletic uh and so I do believe that gets processed tomorrow so we'll have that info and I have a bunch of mailbag questions left over and we'll talk about the giant season crashing and burning so all of that good stuff coming up tomorrow but Taylor Rogers um this is yet another like there's there's this unfortunate little history now of the Giants signing players to contracts and then trying to get rid of those contracts and they've been successful in doing so they traded Mitch Han's threeyear deal after one year they traded away Jorge cair in his three-year deal after after half a season and now they're not trying to trade Taylor Rogers but they're trying to give him away but the the catch is the team that claims him would be on the hook yes for just a pro-rated portion of his $12 million salary this year and Taylor Rogers I mean he's been good and so I can see the Temptation if you're a playoff team this is a guy who's got a 245 ER he's got a 315 expected ra 344 Fielding independent pitching I don't understand why he hasn't been used in more High leverage situations his career erra is 336 Fielding independent pitching is 319 he's been a closer in this league he's got 83 career saves 98 career holds uh and like I said 336 ER in his career strikeout rate this year 28.2% not walking people uh there's really just not much to dislike about Taylor Rogers here here and he is available for the low low price of16 of $12 million which comes out to uh one 16th of 12 million I can't do math while recording a podcast but it's not very much I think um yeah they they probably write it somewhere in this write up on MLB trade rumors you cannot do math while doing a podcast but the catch is he's also under contract for next year and so it's it would not surprise me one bit to see Taylor Rogers go unclaimed because a team doesn't want to make that $12 million commitment to him for 2025 I think the fact is because these are irrevocable waivers there the Giants hope that all three players get claimed like you wouldn't place these players on waivers unless you were hoping that they would get claimed and so in the case of Rogers it has everything to do with just clearing hoping to clear 12 million for next year that they've committed to him and it's not about saving money per se it's hopefully about reallocating it to another area and that makes sense especially the way they're using him $12 million for Rogers feels kind of like a waste because they're not using him in any kind of important situations not that this is a fair comparison but Logan web is going to earn $12 million next year he's also going to earn 23 million the following year and that's and Taylor Rogers will be a free agent um that's more to do with web's contract increasing in salary by year based on the fact that he would have been an arbitration eligible player at that time so anyway there it also kind of raises the question why wasn't Michael conforto placed on waivers maybe they just knew he wouldn't be claimed given that it's an $18 million Pro rate you know pro-rated $18 million salary Tyler maik by the way is making just $1.9 million I suppose I could pull up my calculator app and just do so 56 or I should say 1 16 is like 16.7% times for Taylor Rogers uh $12 million that comes out to about $2 million that a team would have to pay Rogers to be on the regular season roster and postseason roster for the low low catch of you got to pay him 12 million next year so I would not be surprised if he doesn't get claimed for that reason and um .67 times tyler maik's salary of 1.9 million comes out to $377,000 and then there's a club option with no buyout for next year so you could basically have Tyler manic for very little sou 3177 to a major league team it's like nothing and so if you believe he can be halfway decent for you he could get claimed and that's just simply a cost cutting and roster saving move you could designate him for assignment if he doesn't get claimed he probably will if he doesn't get claimed just to clear a roster spot because that's clearly the indication here and the Giants they are essentially like waving the White Flag here with these moves significantly these moves happened also before uh they lost the next two games in Milwaukee so the the two they Lo they won game one and then they lost the next two and their current playoff odds according to Fan crafts are 1.1% seems a little optimistic in my opinion I mean it's just going to it would take an absolute Miracle to make the playoffs at this point which is almost certainly not going to happen 99% chance it doesn't happen uh per fan graphs but anyway the these are interesting moves and I think the the part that should Intrigue you the most most is about like if Estrada gets CLA whether or not Estrada gets claimed this indicates they intend to make an effort to upgrade at that position or or it's opening a path for a Marco Luciano and you get to see what he can do in the final month and maybe he plays well and you start to think about him as you know your second baseman for 2025 they got to upgrade somewhere though like they just need to make an impact move whether it's Willie adamus or you know I I definitely could be talked into Pete Alonzo making sense Christian Walker making sense and of course Juan sto making a ton of sense but what are the chances Juan stto ends up here maybe less than the Giants playoff odds of 1% I don't know I don't know I think they'll try but do I think they'll be successful I'll let you be the judge of that so and then in in the case of Rogers if he gets claimed this is this is one where it matters if he gets claimed or not if he gets claimed that's a big win in that that's $12 million that's committed to next year's team already that you can reallocate to something else and hopefully not just pocket the money but instead reall reallocate it to something else I think they're highly motivated to make the playoffs and they've just failed and so you know it's not been for lack of trying especially last offseason they did do a lot of things um so yeah it's going to be very interesting to see how these claims or you know these I keep calling them claims they won't necessarily be claimed in which case they just stay on the team they could be designated for assignment but um then the Giants would be on the hook for the remainder of their salary which doesn't matter as much in the case of players only under control or only under a guaranteed contract for one year like a Estrada and maik and I'm talking guaranteed salary Estrada still has two more years of arbitration eligibility but you don't want to DFA a Taylor Rogers because you'd simply have to pay him the money anyway uh you might as well just keep him around even if he's a low-leverage guy um try to trade him in the offseason DFA him wouldn't make sense anyway that is all the time we have for today thanks again for making locked on Giants your first listen today now go check out the locked on MLB podcast prepare for the fall classic with Sully who has it all covered every single day you can find the link to locked on MLB in the description so you don't have to search part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day a reminder too that you can catch every pitch of the Giants Hometown broadcast with Sirius XM just download the sxm app and search the word Giants once again my name is Ben caspit check me out on xben caspit K pic if you like this show please consider rating it or leaving a review helps me out a lot so thank you in advance and thanks to everyone who's done so already I can't wait to be with you again tomorrow fascinating things going on right now uh with Estrada and Rogers and kind of with maic so we'll break it down for you tomorrow thanks again for listening you are now locked on Giants