NFL Week 1: BETTING STRATEGY & MUST PLAYS

[Music] welcome back to going live my name is Felix Castro I am a millionaire in beste ball I've won uh I've won $1.3 million in earnings over my DFS and basetball career uh betting is a new to my state so I am you guys are riding along with me learning how to learning out some player pop bets learning what's successful for me what I should be trying to attack what I should be looking at um uh I wrote down a list of plays that I you know that are going to be be the popular they're good plays they're gonna stuff you should kind of be thinking about when playing uh DFS on DraftKings and I have a well I had three bets oh I think I just undid one of them let's see here nope I didn't one second make sure it's still there yeah still there all right starting off with uh draftking DFS the best bet a quarterback and currently listed very inaccurately at 3% owned Justin Fields oh oh what happened here uh start cab well don't know what that was uh just all came right back uh we did have a power outage I don't know if that has anything to do with it but as I was saying the best play at quarterback versus even my sign got okay uh the best player quarterback is Justin Fields uh he comes with a price of I think somewhere in the five 5K range so his price is not easily the best PR quarterback he rides the most upside with his ability as we've all come to find out with Justin Fields um what else yeah like he he's he's currently listed at 3% own come by tomorrow I have a feeling he's going to be in the 20ish percent range 20 to 30 and he it is it is a smash play it could easily fail as he does have a fumbling problem takes a lot of sacks get thr a lot of interceptions but for the price you're paying for that you could easily make things work with it I do think that the best three quarterbacks that have a high the highest ceiling to take down a mil maker are go go in order we go Fields Jaden Daniels a rich I think those three quarterbacks had the best potential to have the highest output at the quarterback position week one when they're healthiest when the defenses don't know how to strategize against them the best that is the best time to attack the uh the quarterback position of the running back type the the running quarterback type obviously okay following that we go to the running backs we have Kenneth Walker priced at 6,100 going against this defense that's has lost a couple linebackers in the off season and uh this offense we don't know a lot about it we know that it came from the Washington brand right this is NFL they still have their you know their core and with Kenneth Walker being 6100 I think he has the easiest path against this team and uh to take advantage of these rookie quarterbacks they're going to just put a lot of pressure on him to to make a play and I think they're the coach on the other side you know Michigan guy you know comes from that that offense combined with grubs as offense I think it's going to be a good mesh of like let's run it down their throat let's throw it deep so I think they like Kenneth Walker a lot I think it could be a lot of Kenneth Walker early and often I don't see how the Denver broncco stop him 6,100 he can easily hit that three yard bonus and that guy's electric could easily see a 50-yard touchdown you know what I'm saying like those kind of plays are in his repertoire um obviously I am biased with this next DFS selection it is not a Harris uh he did win me a million dollars so preice like I I it could be completely I have shaders on right but I say na Harris because Jay Warren is coming off that injury Justin Fields is projected to be the quarterback there could be a lot more handoffs you know could be running the ball a lot more than passing if this weekend CTO Patterson could get some work I guess but if I had to put money on who they're going to rely 20 to 30 touches on it's GNA be Naji Harris this week last time he faced uh p uh the Atlanta he wrecked them um he put one of their players into the ground he kind of owns them so and he loves playing in in in the Atlanta Dome with the Georgia Dome so I just uh yeah he's a smash play uh 5600 too like super cheap he could easily be one of these guys that goes to 60 300 next week he dominates again goes to 7100 and that's where he levels out all right at the wide receiver position we have Devonte Adams 7600 so kind of pricey right but he's a good play because not only does he kill the Chargers every time he plays them he's 5% owned so he's a leverage play off of uh Tyreek hill and in DFS it's like you get two guys yeah pek Hill's projections a little bit higher but the price is a little bit the you know about the same and they have both the same ceiling you want to take the lower own guy just on the off chance that he goes off and you have a lower owned Tyreek uh Damonte Adams versus a high Tyreek is supposed to be like 30% owned highest projected player makes complete sense I don't know how anybody stops him I agree but I think this is uh I think this is a chance to leverage that position of Tyreek hill by getting D Adams at a similar price at 5% ownership currently next uh we have have down his neighbors at 5900 uh as we saw like the couple preseason games that they played he has a gonna have a huge Target share and that Target share can lead to a lot of work End Zone shots um big play ability he has all the potentials to be the next Jamar chase the the the next guy you know he has the chance to be the the next year's first round type player it's that's what I drafted him like I I of course liked him better than mhj personally so I drafted a lot of Neighbors in baseball this year I think that uh I think I think neighbors is in line to to have a have a a breakout games I'm not scared of any of these giant uh quarterbacks for to go against them the their defense has been not great so it could easily be a huge game for Neighbors at that price to save a little bit and then to get a low owned cheap wide receiver the ultimate Spike week type guy in a in one of the highest uh projected total games is Gabe Davis at 4,500 um the dude is either 20 points plus or zero so Andy's very low owned he's like 2% owned and uh so yes he could they have the median projection for like eight points he ain't doing eight points he's either getting two touchdowns 120 yards or he's getting shot out and because they're using Brian Thomas Jor more we don't know exactly what the usage is going to be but when they he they were all on the field Not only was he targeted the most he was on the field for all the snaps that same that was uh Trevor Lawrence so we do know that there was a rise to Brian Thomas Jr towards the end of the preseason but Gabe Davis was a steady constant in that offense in the preseason I was watching that because he is my highest own wide receiver in my best wall tournament in my basketball exposures at 50% I was just keeping an eye maybe it's like maybe I was wrong side just kept an eye on it constantly talked about constantly getting praised nothing really negative um obviously Brian Thomas J was you know getting more and more play so unless unless the uh Target share is not there if he has a 20% Target share that's great you know get him six targets he can convert three of those for touchdowns you know like he has that ability um and at the price of 4500 it's a smash like if you're trying to get something trying to get a ceiling play I think it's a smash play and then at tight end I personally like all three the elite tight ends well two of the elite tight ends and then I'm okay with you know whoever you guys considered the third one uh Trey McBride at 6100 is my favorite uh but 5800 Dy ke is a smash all the defenses there are great so or are not great so I I don't mind paying up for those that's why like i' I'll find myself taking a treay McBride to get to uh to get to Gabe d or I'll take Gabe Davis so I can get to Tre McBride Andor dolin conade so that's it I didn't do any defensive looks uh honestly if my my best advice is to unless you have a lean one way or the other just to um take just if you can find projections on defenses take the lowest own with the highest projection that's what I've been doing for a long time it usually works out or I'm personally going to be picking on B Knicks I don't think he's as accurate as it is p perceived he I did bet some season long prop bets against him uh he might be the league League winner of of interceptions uh I think this is going to be sha McVey last year here in in Denver and uh they'll have realized their mistake there as well okay so in player prop bets uh to go along with our thought process with our DFS play I took a plus 190 for Naji Harris um anytime touchdown anytime TouchDown for niji Harris I think if they score it's gonna be through nii uh at least to get to get it going I thought about betting at first touchdown it was plus 10,000 but to start off this uh this channel I thought we' go a little bit safer with a A plus 190 there plus 25 receiving yards for Chase Brown plus 200 um with t Higgins already being listed out uh Jamar Chase being limited you're already looking at like where the ball's going to go well I think one of the balls is gonna go straight to J uh Chase Brown and and for 25 yards he can get that in one play no problem and then for my last bet to make it a plus 1800 you know parlay over 4.5 receptions for Alvin CRA so he hits five receptions which is not out of the norm for that guy you know like he can hit five receptions real quick he can get two on the first drive probably two or three so I think it's not out of the world like the realm that he gets at pretty easily yeah I mean you never know he may not maybe he gets injured those are things you know we're betting so yeah those things happen for uh I currently have it as a parlay for 1814 so if you put 10 bucks down I think that's like 200 bucks $191 you can put 10 bucks down on that I think that could be a nice little a little three bet that you can put down we'll keep track to see what we how we turn out so I'll go ahead and put a $10 bet right there see how that one turns out place my bet and I and uh yeah so either Fridays or Saturdays we will be doing this show going live um currently it's the football show but well yeah you know here at the fantasy football Plus network obviously it's gonna be a football show but I just wanted to preface there might be a bet or two that you could tag along with this here and there but yes the show will be on Fridays or Saturdays depending on my family schedule we have a couple trips coming up so we're gonna do our best to to to go live and get this accomplished every week for you guys and keep it uh keep keep track of it all right this is a big going live this is Felix and it's been fun it's been real it's real fun there you guys