Why Iowa Making The College Football Playoff In 2024 Is Very Realistic

Introduction 22 days ago I released my updated college football playoff predictions video and the prediction of mine that received the harshest criticism the strongest push back and was by far the most unpopular was my projection that the Iowa Hawkeyes would reach the 12 team playoff in its inaugural season in 2024 now that's certainly a bold prediction and any sports book in America would back that fact up Iowa currently sits at plus 650 per fanuel to reach the playoff and there are 26 teams including three group of five teams that have the same or more favorable odds to reach the 12 team playoff many of you had a plethora of criticisms and rightly so of my prediction in my video that I released 22 days ago and I imagine you have those same criticisms today Iowa's offense was horrific and it will take more than a year for even marginal Improvement to occur and you can't keep winning a plethora of one- score games on defense and expect to not drop a game or two or three against an inferior or similar opponent and the Big 10 West is gone so there's going to be a scheduling wakeup call for Iowa Nebraska Minnesota Wisconsin Northwestern Illinois and Purdue right we'll get into all of these criticisms for which I think I have several effective rebuttal my opinions on this and in-depth analysis about why I think Iowa has a somewhat easy path to the college football playoff on this episode of college football with Sam welcome back fellow Football Fanatics before we resume this intriguing episode please hit that like button as it helps us get into the algorithm earn more attention which results in more subscribers an even stronger and more active community and just several wonderful benefits for the college football Community for the college football Sam community and yourself as well you have more college football fans to engage with whether they're of your fan base or a different fan base it's always better when there's more college football fans in any given space and also subscribe to the channel for your own benefit and click the notification Bell that way we can achieve 20,000 subscribers sooner rather than later just one subscription from you or several if you share this video around to other college footb fans that you know family or friends it helps us get closer to that Mark because at 20,000 subscribers I will be doing a giveaway and any video that reaches a th000 likes on this channel whether it's before or after I'll make make another giveaway for the college football 25 game and to hit the notification Bell you just click that little bell there and you'll get notified whenever I release new college football related content content whether it's for Iowa football any former Big 10 West team Big 10 East team the former Pack 12 teams we cover all 18 Big 10 teams here on college football with Sam and also comment your opinions whether it's criticisms or support of this idea of mine that Iowa will make the college football playoff or at least be in the running come November even after that Ohio State game which I think we can all say is going to be Requirements To Reach The CFP pretty much a guaranteed loss first what I want to do is talk about the benchmarks to reach the playoff and how they relate to Iowa football so in order to reach the college football playoff the committee wants to see these things they want to look at your strength of schedule they want to brush over your strength of record how you performed against your strength of schedule and also bias is natural in humanity it just is is it's possible to be extremely objective or close to totally objective but never objective in the Perfection sense you can never be 100% objective everyone is blind spots but some have larger or more severe blind spots than others the committee some days it seems like they barely have any blind spots or they have 2020 Vision other times it seems like they have 20 10,000 vision and they're blind spot just is their line of sight like all they they can't see anything they're just blind uh the eye test is kind of that sometimes they use the ey test in I think a good way other times it is in a faulty way at the end of the day strength of schedule and strength of record is typically the most important factors that the committee looks at Iowa has a weak strength of schedule it's 17th out of all 18 Big 10 teams per fpi and 15th per Phil steel and I include Phil Steel on here because I bought his preview Magazine on a recommendation from corn crazed and I think you all should buy his magazine too of course if you can afford it or if that's your thing and you plan to read through most or all of it certainly only if you're going to use that resource but we're going to talk about Phil steel a little bit more in this video but I just wanted to bring him up him fpi and myself are in agreement this strength of schedule is easy it's not going to be good for the college football playoff committee it won't because they like tougher schedules I think in order to make the playoff Iowa has to win 11 games or 12 games the margin for error is Razor thin in terms of strength of record there's only really one opportunity for Iowa to achieve a big win that's against Ohio State it's the only top 30 te per fpi that Iowa faces I think that Iowa's strength of schedule is probably tougher than what fpi says because I do have Wisconsin and Nebraska as top 25 teams and Iowa state will be pretty good too that'll be a good non-conference game as well but in terms of preseason power rankings and even in my own rankings you move the top 30 criteria to top 25 top 15 if you move it to top 10 there's only one top 10 team unanimously on the schedule that's Ohio State and Iowa will definitely be an underdog in that game double digit Underdog I'd pencil that in as almost a guaranteed loss unless something insane were to happen like several turnovers for Ohio State or Iowa's offense makes a massive leap under Tim Lester which is possible but I think extremely unlikely given some of the constraints they have on that side of the football roster wise however they'll be favored in 11 other games Iowa will and Iowa has the returning production the roster the coaching the habit of winning close games the habit of creating turnovers which winning close games and creating turnovers are viewed as non-sustainable statistics but Iowa is a little bit of an exception to the rule in that regard especially when it comes to turnovers forced by the defense and also their elite special teams play year after year after year so being favored in 11 games out of the 12 that you play certainly helps and the eye test last but not least the committee loves dominant teams they do and Iowa is not a dominant team I I will if there's one thing that I am more confident on than Iowa reaching the playoff specifically in regards to Iowa football or more confident than anything in relationship to Iowa football even my own opinion that I think their defense this year will once again be elite it could be the best defense in the country is the fact that they will not be dominant by the box score they just won't it's not how they play but it will be impossible to keep an 11-1 Big 10 team out it will I that could not happen there is not a universe in which an 11-1 Big 10 team is out it's the same thing with the SEC an 11 in1 SEC team is a lock to get in they are unless they're one loss in an abysmal schedule is by 50 or 60 points which that could even happen to Iowa against Ohio State but Ohio state has also begun to play less dominant via the box score more complimentary football in fact I think Ohio State style of play in actuality is more dominant than it was in the past but not in the way that the playoff committee or most fans would think of dominance when most people think of dominance they think of high scoring Octane and just drilling through your Iowa's 2024 Schedule opponents fairly quickly that's not always what dominance is though but again that's a conversation I think for another day another video or maybe something we can talk about a little later in fact I know it's something we'll talk about later let's take a dive into Iowa's schedule now through the lens of that criteria the criteria of your strength of schedule and strength of record have to be in alignment as in you can't lose a ton of games it's obvious and if you have a weaker strength of schedule you need to win more games to be in consideration for a playoff spot and if you're not dominant um that that fact that you have to win more games if you don't have a good strength of schedule basically win as many games as you can and the urgency to win as many games as possible is maximized if you aren't dominant or don't have a good schedule I mean this is why group of five teams will used to have to go 13-0 to even have a shot to be in the college football playoff like Cincinnati or UCF for example or Houston and you had to typically build upon previously dominant Seasons to gain the respect in order to reach the playoff despite having a weaker strength of schedule or not playing the style of football that the committee likes ironically Iowa somewhat done that themselves reaching the Big 10 championship game in 2021 and 2022 but let's take a deep dive again into Iowa's schedule it's an easy schedule per fpi and Phil steel I think it's easier than most Big 10 schedules and it's the perfect schedule for Iowa to reach the playoff when I originally made my prediction that Iowa would reach the playoff I thought to myself yeah this will probably change come August or come the next time I think about these things because I review my predictions pretty consistently I want to make sure they're the most accurate and it's also fun to guess yourself and to check yourself but looking at this schedule outside of that road game against Ohio State who matches up well with Iowa on both sides of the football who does I I can't name any team I can tell you that Nebraska's Defense matches up well with Iowa's offense but I can't tell you that Nebraska's offense matches up well with an Iowa defense that's legendary year after year after year and especially this year when they're top five in returning production Wisconsin they have one of the few passing games in college football if Tyler van djk pans out that could maybe question Iowa secondary that could give them some problems more problems than what a Phil Parker defense is used to through the air but that doesn't mean they necessarily match up well with an Iowa secondary that's far more proven than Wisconsin's passing offense outside of Ohio State Iowa will be favored in all of their games which means that losing to any of those teams outside of the Buckeyes will their chances now I still think it's the perfect schedule to reach the playoff because Iowa knows how to win close games and their amount of returning production is insane they're top 10 factoring both offense def defense and special teams and Iowa's tougher non- Ohio State games are at home Iowa state is at home Wisconsin is at home Nebraska is at home Washington who is the second toughest team on Nebraska on Iowa's schedule pardon me per fbii they're at home and that is going to be a long flight the toughest Road opponent for Iowa football in 2024 this this will probably blow your mind I don't have Iowa's schedule memorized it'll either be Minnesota Michigan State or Maryland outside of Ohio State you take Ohio State off the board and I think it's appropriate because it's kind of an automatic L they don't have another tough road game they don't I mean Michigan State Minnesota could be tough Minnesota beat them last year Michigan State should improve under Jonathan Smith UCLA has talent and that's a long flight and Maryland has some talent but none of those teams are preseason top 25 and they've all had their struggles over the past several seasons they've been worse programs than Iowa has been and they return less production as well because Iowa leads the Big 10 in returning production Iowa's goal this year with their schedule with they with what they bring back should be to reach the playoff because of their High returning production and what is a very workable and easy schedule Iowa could once again like last year win several close games and go 11- one or with what they bring back they could perhaps dominate this schedule outside of Ohio State losing to Ohio State on the road but winning most of their games in the regular season by double digits just because of how favorable this schedule is before we get further in the video I want to quickly shout out my patreon account and also my merchandise store you can find the links to both of those in the video description or down below in the pinned comment or reply to the pinned comment if you want to have your name featured at the be at the not the beginning that's how it used to be but at the middle and end of 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description or the pinned comment and finally if you want to see my specific predictions for Iowa including just a a brief roster breakdown brief but very analytical roster breakdown returning starter numbers returning production numbers specific predictions for the schedule and also who I have Iowa matching up with in the college football playoff that I'm projecting them to make click the link click the info card in the top right corner of your screen and watch my big 10 predictions video that's the most recent video I've published that has the greatest chance of getting to a thousand likes so I can do that college football 25 giveaway so head on over and do that if Iowa's Strengths you could I would appreciate that but let's dive right back into the deep end and talk about Iowa's strengths Iowa's strengths are as follows their defense their defense how about you have a side of defense the defense has been near Elite or Elite for most of Phil Parker's tenure they have not allowed their defense to allow more than 20 points scored on them per game since 2015 it's nearly been a decade since Iowa scoring defense has allowed close to three scoring touchdowns per game that's insane that that's how good of a defensive coordinator Phil Parker is he's the best defensive coordinator in all of college football and Iowa has one of the best if not the best defensive staffs in all of college football and Lavar Woods is the best special teams coach in all of college football it's defense and special teams for the Iowa Hawkeyes and this defense will be alltime elite and I'm going to dive into that in its own segment of this video but I want to keep on top of the specific strengths before talking about the defense as a whole and why I think it'll be generational Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson make up the best linebacker room in the nation they had 281 tackles six sacks five passes defended and three forced fumbles last year alone and that was with the worst offense under Kirk frence in the history of Iowa I I I do believe at least it was it was worse than the 2022 offense I know that the 23 offense dealt with more injuries but my goodness Brian fence now an offensive Analyst at Maryland good luck with that Mike lockley he was just so bad there's a reason why I gave him the the the name He Who Shall Not Be Named because he was a disgrace to this program to this offense straight up and Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson at the linebacker spot the quarterback of the defense commanded a defense that bent but really outside of the Tennessee game and the Penn State game late never broke I mean those are the only two games where Iowa's defense just totally imploded where they broke the Minnesota game was close but at the end of the day they held Minnesota to four field goals and against Michigan one of the better offenses in the country they held the Wolverines to 26 points stal warded Michigan's ground attack and if not for Michigan's generational defense that could have been an even closer game 26 to nothing uh Michigan always felt in the lead but really I mean I'm probably rambling at this point but that's how good this defense was and that's it's going to be the same way this year because of all that they return and then on the defensive line with deont Craig Yaya black Aaron Graves they're great there and Deshawn Lee Sebastian Castro gerani Harris Quinn Schult Xavier and WKA they're an elite group there those are the defensive line linebacker core the defensive back unit the linebackers and I think with the DBS just closely behind are the anchors the strong points of this defense the defensive line would be the weak point but I think it's still an elite unit in college football that's just how deep this defense is That's How Strong Iowa is on that side of the ball if we want to talk about offensive strengths I would say that the offensive line the tight end room maybe running backs if they can be help would be honorable mention strengths for this team same Iowa's Weaknesses with Drew Stevens at kicker some weaknesses of this team uh the offense it it's been so bad that its performance has been memeable since 2021 more specifically 2022 and ever since Nate Stanley left this quarterback room has been a mess I thought that Kate mamero would be serviceable last year he tore his quadricep in the preseason of 2023 in Fall camp and he wasn't the same player and he got injured against Michigan State before then he wasn't doing good and then Deacon Hill was just a disaster with Kate mcamera being healthy hopefully he's healthy for the entire preseason and better this year and then Brendan Sullivan transferring in from Northwestern this is going to be Iowa's best quarterback room easily since they had Nate Stanley in 2019 could be even better it could it could be Iowa's best back room since CJ bethard mamero was good at Michigan he was an above average player at the worst good player at the best not a high ceiling but a pretty high floor and Brennan Sullivan he has legs and was athletic and did not have a good Supporting Cast at Northwestern and still performed at a pretty serviceable level and I think now with Tim Lester as the offensive coordinator they'll be better coaching they'll be better schematics and Iowa's offense has just been so bad that it can't get any worse but it is still by a mile a weakness on this team and it will be one of the weaker offenses in the Big 10 just because it will take so much time to undo the damage that Brian fence did the wide receiver room is a perfect example of this uh it's their second crippling weakness and I think it will actually be weaker than the quarterback room this year but that's just my personal opinion the evidence probably says quarterback still has more questions than wide receiver they do not have a returning wide receiver with 250 yards receiving from last year they don't Nico regini was their leading receiver and he's gone so this this receiver room has a ton of questions the tight end room is going to have to step up there's a similar theme with many big 10 schools whether it's Michigan or Penn State with much better receiver rooms than Iowa but where the tight end rooms are much stronger in the big 10 than the wide receiver rooms are and it's ironic because it's really the inverse of every former Pack 12 school outside of UCLA where USC Oregon and Washington are going to have good receiver rooms USC's and Oregon will be elite but the tight end rooms for all of those schools outside of Oregon and definitely UCLA are actually weak spots so I I do find that interesting it shows how the the Big 10 is built versus other conference especially one like the Pack 12 that's been more offensively focused rest in peace to the Pack 12 the Hawkeyes don't have many weaknesses because tight end is strong the offensive line with how much they return is going to be strong and running back I wouldn't classify as weak I wouldn't it could be a weak link but I think that's probably the most neutral position on this team it all depends on whether they can all stay healthy and take steps forward with the amount of collective experience that they have now let's Circle back to the defense one Iowa's All-Time Defense Somehow Will Improve! last time the Iowa Hawkeyes on defense return 86% of their 20123 production and they only allowed 14.8 points per game last year and in 2022 they only allowed 13.3 points per game and they played Michigan and Ohio State two college football playoff teams and top three teams in the country with Georgia being number one that year in my opinion they played two of the top three teams an elite offense the best in the country in Ohio State and a top 10 offense in Michigan and yeah even so they allowed less than a than two touchdowns per game in 2022 and last year their offense was even worse they played Penn State in the regular season had a ton of fluke turnovers awful special teams performance and even worse offensive performance than one could typically imagine got shut out there shut out by Michigan Shut Out by Tennessee and they still only allowed 14.8 points per game and last year's defense was per Bill connell's S&P plus more efficient than the 2022 Iowa defense and to a certain degree I could buy that because the special teams for Iowa last year and the offense was worse than in 2022 and yet the defense performed admirably you also have to remember that Iowa's Bowl opponent in 2023 in Tennessee was much more competent and put together than their bowl opponent in 2022 Kentucky who they shut out 21 to nothing uh and since 2016 no Iowa defense and by 16 I mean the beginning of 2016 no Iowa defense has allowed more than 19.9 points per game in total this defense returns 807 tackles 20 a half sacks 7 forced fumbles 38 passes defended and eight interceptions and eight of the 11 projected starters are seniors or graduates so this unit is experienced this is the year I am telling you right now for Iowa's defense to be generational all-time great it could be and I think will be the best defense this is even with losing Cooper deine the best defense of Phil Parker's time at Iowa and that combined with an offense that also returns a lot of production has a better quarterback room will have a better offensive line Can The Hawkeyes Reach The College Football Playoff? because of added depth and better experience and still having an easy schedule on top of all of these things Iowa's defense will lead this team to the playoff because The defense's Supporting Cast improves it's more likely than you think that Iowa can make the playoff plus 650 odds I think is amazing value I have never placed a bet yet I'm not telling you to even bet your own money on this but I think there is value there and it is usually unsustainable to win several close games but Iowa is 11 and five in ones score game since 2021 and if you extend that all the way back to 2016 they're above 500 and more recently they've had a better Knack at winning those one- score games because their defense has been so good and so clutch same with their special teams and I imagine that with the defense bringing back so much and probably improving and with the offense likely improving they'll probably not have as many one- score games to play in they'll be more dominant and when they do play in ones score games they'll have better options and more diverse ways of attacking and therefore winning those games their probability of winning those games will increase on top of their recent history of winning close games uh the offense will improve and so will the defense the only area where I would expect a drop off is special teams because Tory Taylor was just that good but not to worry I think rice dhen will be good at that position Drew Stevens come back comes back Kaden weton returns as the kick and punt returner this team is not necessarily better than you think in terms of Power Rankings but in terms of on the- field results in terms of the capacity to win they are better and they are infinitely more efficient than you and even myself likely think thank you all so much for watching this video I want to shout out my patreon members thanks to crash 2488 and Brasa Rascal for being Heisman members and sponsoring this video and channel thanks to Chris Lane Conor little oh and ismar for sponsoring this video and channel is All American members and thanks to John Lynn roaming gnome Matthew S Austin Christmas and Janai shakro for sponsoring this video and channel as all conference members have a great day guys and I will see you all soon bye-bye