Bijan Robinson's breakout season will lead Atlanta Falcons back to playoffs

bejon should be the biggest X Factor to why the Falcons make the postseason you are locked on Falcons your daily Atlanta Falcons podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day welcome back everyone to another illustrious episode of the lockon Falcons podcast your daily Atlanta Falcons podcast part of lockon sports Atlanta your team every day and today's episode is brought to you by prize piix the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to prize.com lockon NFL and use code in all lowercase locked on NFL to win $50 instantly when you play $5 you don't even need to win to receive the $50 bonus prize picks run your game and guys if you don't know me I'm your very humble host Aaron Freeman aka Mr Drew AKA serus black AKA Mister AKA and I've been cover to Atlanta Falcons for nearly two decades for at FAL fans.com R still going strong on this illustrious podcast and I thank each and every one of you that is in every dayer of this pod that goes strong with me each and every day that makes it your first listen each and every day and all you got to do to become an every dayer is to subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast to get the latest episode as soon as it is available each and every day so today's episode is going to be all about the Falcons Run game the changes that Zack Robinson is going to bring to the Run scheme whether or not this offensive line is going to step step up and debunking the narrative surrounding Bean's lack of usage but let's start talking about bejan's breakout potential and he is definitely poised for a breakout year and how big a breakout that is will depend on some of these factors like Zack Robinson's run scheme how good this offensive line is going to be but if bejon can have that type of big monster season from a production standpoint it's going to be huge for this offense because the Falcons goal is to be a balanced offense their identity is going to be blending a strong running game with a uh heavy dose of play action passing which is going to allow Kurt Cousins to do what he does best which is attack the middle of the field you know a lot of in breaking a lot of Crossing routes and whatnot and you know this offense is going to throw the ball more than they did under Arthur Smith but they're not going to be this pass first offense right they're still going to rely heavily on the running game right they're not really built to be this pass first offense right um you know we we we like our weapons but these aren't like the weapons that you're looking at and be like oh this is an offense that's going to throw the ball 40 50 times like the offense that Kirk Cousins is coming from Minnesota right that you know as good as we think Drake London is going to be and he's going to be good potentially catching 90 to 100 Balls this year he's not Justin Jefferson as good as Darnell Mooney should be he's not Jordan Addison as good as Kyle pittz can be H he's probably the closest one to the TJ hawson analog but that's really about it because like the next tier of weapons for the Falcons with Ray R McLoud and Charlie Warner and cadero hodj and and all that and stuff like that's not really built to be an offense that's going to drop back and throw the ball 40 50 times times and win that way they're they'll be better suited to win those types of games the the couple of times they need to than they have been in the past but that's not really how they're going to win you know 10 or 12 games doing that every single week and you know you couple that with Kirk com coming off of the injuries um it remains to kind of be seen if this offensive line can truly hold up in a straight dropback passing attack like that right you know where you have questions about McGary and berson and dolman can they hold up in that type of offensive line that type of offense again maybe but we have haven't seen it quite to this point and so that and I don't expect the Falcons passing game to be firing on all cylinders coming out of the gates this year and so I think the more burden that the running game especially early in the season can take on the better for this team and when it comes to Bean like we're hoping for this Todd Gurley esque type of season like we saw Todd Gurley at his peak in a very similar offense under Shawn McVey in LA and you know I will drop my stat projections for this upcoming season later this week probably Wednesday or Thursday when I'm done with those the range for where I'm projecting beon right now is somewhere between like 220 carries and 250 carries or something like that but I think it could be on the upper end of that uh spectrum and you know 240 plus is usually going to get you into top 10 among highest usage in terms of running backs each year and that should mean a, to 12200 maybe 1300 yards for beon and that's what we kind of saw with Ty Gurley at his Peak you know Seasons approaching 280 carries 1300 yards rushing in addition to all the value he brought as a pass catcher in some of those years and I expect bejan to bring similar value as a pass catcher for the Falcons this year particularly because I expect you know Kurt Cousins to check the ball down a bunch because he's not going to be making that many plays on the second reaction extending plays due to his limited Mobility coming off the Achilles and whatnot and so a lot of those times it's just going to be simply checking the ball down and if bejan can turn like five yard checkdowns into 15 yard gains and we know he has a capability due to his ability to make guys miss in the open field that's going to be a huge multiplier for the Falcons where instead of you know going you know settling for a second and five from the 40 you know it's a first and 10 from the opposing team's 45 or something like that on those situ on their own 40 versus the opposing teams 45 like if you can get another 10 15 or more yards uh just you know just by bejan being a dude that's going to be a huge boost to this offense and so you know the potential is definitely there for ban to have this 1,800 2,000 yards from scrimmage type of season that the very best running backs in the NFL typically do on an annual basis and if Bean can approach that number that's going to be a huge X Factor a huge boost for the Falcons success this year if they can get that type of production from their rb1 this year especially early in the season I think that's going to be hugely valuable because again not expecting this passing game to come out of the gates firing on all cylinders that I think as the season wears on this passing Game with Kirk and the rapport that him and his receivers are going to have uh you know is going to grow you got a first year play call a first year quarterback all these guys are new and the expectation that like it's going to click immediately again we would love to see it absolutely we would love to see it but I think there's going to be some growing pains and later in the season when hopefully when they're they are sort of have built that Rapport and clicking and firing on all the cylinders you couple that with the Run game that we're hoping to get early in the season a high level running game one of the best rushing teams in the league then that's going to be huge for this offense moving forward because the one general rule of of thumb with football really doesn't matter what you're talking about whether you're all talking about pass rushers or or offense in this case you know being good at two things is better than being good at one so a team that can run the football and throw the football effectively is going to be better than any team that can just do one of those things effectively uh but we'll have to sort of see if Bean can reach those Heights you know part of the conversation on whether he will is be centered around him getting more usage this year and I want to continue today's episode kind of debunking the narrative that bean was misused last year right where did that narrative come from and why it's so misleading we'll break that down as we continue today's lock on Falcons so guys it is time to get back into stadium and especially you know next weekend for the Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh Steelers action in the best place to do so is game time we was taking the guesswork out of buying tickets you can shop their Flash Deals which are the exclusive inapp deals on select seats ahead of the game you know with uh game time what you see is what you get whether it's from the panoramic seat views before you buy or the all-in prices so you don't have to worry about hidden fees at checkout and whether you're into football baseball other sports comedy Music Theater whatever event is near your game time is going to help you with buying those tickets all you got to do is download the game time app create an account and use code locked on NFL and you'll get $20 off your first purchase 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the story we tell children you know they're basic they're often not true but you know there's a Kel of Truth to them but they tend to get a little bit exaggerated and you know I think with bejan a lot of that cam from people that weren't necessarily watching the games just watching the box scores watching the highlights and the highlights were clearly their early last season with bejan some highlight real plays against Carolina Green Bay you know Jacksonville uh Etc and when people see those highlights they're like this guy's incredible the Falcons just have to get him the ball and watch you know incredible things tend to happen whenever bejan gets the football and then the highlights kind of went quiet for a couple of weeks and then the next real chance we had to talk about Bean came on the heels of that week seven game against Tampa Bay where he didn't play due to the migraines and people understandably were upset that weekend because a lot of people lost money that weekend uh based off of bejan not playing and so people were very upset with Arthur Smith after that weekend and then you know he made a couple of questionable play calls in the ensuing weeks against Tennessee and and Minnesota especially near the goal line that caused people to lose their minds you know that Janu Smith passed to Michael pu which was wide open but Janu missed the throw and then he ran the Jet Sweep to jnu Smith against Minnesota and everybody was pissed because of two plays right and you know it was basically Arthur Smith has no clue how to use bejan Robinson the main reason why the Falcons lost the Tennessee in in Minnesota games was because Arthur Smith doesn't know how to use bejan Robinson and you know those weren't really true the next week against Arizona the Falcons forth fed bejan he had a very productive game but the Falcons still lost that game but again that doesn't matter because it doesn't fit the narrative right and you know if you really want to boil down the Tennessee loss to a a a factual narrative rather than a false one it basically because the Falcons couldn't block Jeffrey Simmons and their defense got annihilated that game their entire game plan was geared around stopping Derrick Henry they didn't stop Derrick Henry and then they gave up you know four big explosive touchdown plays in that game um but you know of course none of those fit the narrative right the narrative is the fox FC have one of the best offensive lines of football so the fact that je Jeffrey Simmons single-handedly wrecked that game doesn't fit that narrative and then of course the Falcons defense is the main reason why they're competitive and even though they had a terrible game that week it doesn't fit that narrative and then the Minnesota loss was because Taylor HEI can't run the offense and they also can't tackle mobile quarterbacks like Josh dobs in that game uh in again neither one of those things fit the narrative and so really The Narrative was like everything has to deal with Arthur Smith or and or Desmond r being you know the reasons for all the Falcon problems and so we'll just ignore everything that doesn't really fit that narrative and that's just the nature of narratives right it's going to involve ignoring information and focusing only on the information that does fit right and you know the beon not being utilized narrative to me was and I commented it this after the Vikings game was one of the most overblown narratives I'd ever heard and it was basically because of two plays right as I mentioned two play calls that Arthur Smith didn't give the ball beon near the goal line and people were like this is the worst thing that's ever happened in the history of sports and you know we'll probably hear a narrative at at some point this year because the Falcons will be giving ban the ball in those instances and it'll be like hey the Falcons are successful because of Ban's you know getting the ball more when in reality it's going to be the Falcons are successful and bejan is getting the ball more that those two things aren't directly related in the degrees that people want to make it out but you know we're we're not unfamiliar with narratives here on the lockdown Falcons podcast you know we have the Parker hessie agenda uh that's a narrative right and for those of you that are unfamiliar basically that narrative is built on the idea that in 2022 when Parker hessi was served at the Falcons main blocking tight end they had one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and in 2023 when Parker hasse basically did not play the entire season outside of three games right uh they had one of the worst rushing offenses in the league and they literally went from a top five to a bottom five and of course is one player the cause of of that sort of mass of a shift no right he's not the Catalyst but he is a catalyst in that uh when it comes to those things and it's not a coincidence that the three games that Park he did play and then the Falcons had two of the more successful rushing or two of those games were some of their most successful on the day and then the second half of that Jets game the third game they were able to run the ball effectively which is one of the reasons why they were able to hold on and beat the Jets uh on that that particular Sunday but you know a big reason why that Parker has the agenda was pushed forth on this podcast and and why it makes sense again it's not the reason there a variety of factors but it was a big reason was because you know if you're going to run an outside Zone blocking scheme you need good perimeter blocking the Falcons were the most outside Zone scheme under Arthur Smith these last couple of years and they had good perimeter blocking in 2022 they did not have good perimeter blocking in 2023 and that was a big reason for the downfall not the only reason but one of the bigger reasons for that downfall and you know a lot of people will tell you that down fall that drop in production from 22 to 23 had little to do with you know the Falcons blocking not being up to par because again the narrative is the Falcons have a top five offensive line and any data any observation to the contrary of that will just completely get ignored uh even though it's staring you in the face um which is what happened last year uh and it has well it's clearly got to be Arthur Smith's fault right Arthur SM Smith scheme was very predictable which it was and he's the reason why that run game didn't work and so you know let's talk a little bit more about some of the changes to the scheme and ways that Zack Robinson scheme is going to be less predictable the ways that he's going to diversify this run scheme and how that should benefit this offense and we'll do that as we wrap up today's lock on [Music] fals prize picks is America's number one daily fantasy sports app with over five million active members because it's the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports unlike other 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heading into this season is what exactly is going to be Zack Robinson's tweak to this game right I still think outside zone is going to be a staple Run play for this offense but I think we're going to see you know differences there right Arthur Smith was just basically spamming the stretch play last year which is the bread and butter play of the outside Zone run scheme and I think we're probably not going to spam stretch plays to the degree that Arthur Smith did and we'll mix in some different looks inside Zone maybe a little bit more Duo some counter very different things right a lot of split Zone I think will probably be kind of our staple instead of the stretch play right and I think diversifying the scheme from Zack Robinson will benefit the Falcons Run game is that going to be the main reason for their success probably not because running the football still boils down to you know getting a hat on a hat it's football at its core which is just simply my guy is going to push your guy you know that's kind of what running the football is it gets down to it's why you know some Old School coaches are just you know hardcoree about running the football um so you know I think the scheme can definitely enhance the blocking if the blocking is there but you still got a block is basically what I'm getting at and I think that was what was missing last year the blocking took a major step back but again the narrative was that you know Arthur Smith scheme was predictable which it was it was very predictable but you know it was just as predictable in 2022 and that didn't really stop them from being being able to run the ball down everybody's throat simply because the blocking was there in 2022 you know it's not like defenses didn't know it was coming in 2022 they were like oh my God they got Marcus Mariota quarterback and they just ran for 200 yards last week against this other team I wonder what the Falcons are gonna do this week right it wasn't like defenses were surprised by that but they still couldn't stop it right and you know the fact was the defens has actually stacked the Box more in 2022 than they did in 2023 against the Atlanta Falcons yet the Run game took a step back um and you know I can show you clips from 2022 where you know Tyler out is running through these miles wide uh running Lanes you know Nick named it the autobond uh you know that year because of how big these lanes were and those lanes were just kind of non-existent throughout the 2023 season it was one of the reasons why we were so excited about what bejan could be in last year's offense because we just assume those running lanes are going to be the same and if Al's you know getting these 30 and 40 yard gains running through these wide open holes just you know what's bejon going to do get 60 80 yards he's going to take it to the house every single time that's what we were envisioning and obviously the Falcons didn't live up to that and they need to get back to that the offensive line is going to need to step up right and I think you know it starts with Zack Robinson diversifying the scheme uh but you know I think one of the bigger Mysteries when it comes to what Zack Robinson's offensive scheme overall is going to look like is how does he marry some of the Falcons do run schemes with their play action Concepts right the staple of Arthur Smith was that stretch play that outside Zone stretch play and often times you run sort of a bootle or a roll out off of that stretch play and I don't think given Kurt cousins' presence on this team that that's going to be as much of a staple uh and so that's why I kind of expect the split Zone to kind of be their staple Run play that's going to take better advantage of misdirection and motion from blockers and whatnot and and still get you the same angles that a stretch play would get it's just a slight variation of that zone Run play and so we'll see what that and I also think we'll probably see a a healthier mix of jet sweeps and end rounds you know utilizing Ray Ray McLoud as that third wide receiver in the slot and he'll be perfect for that and that will be other ways that the Falcons can still attack the perimeter in the outside Zone run scheme rather than just relying on the stretch play and spamming that play over and over and over again as they have done these last couple of years so I think that the Falcons can get better blocking you know you know that should boost things obviously as I said earlier in general if if you are good at two things it's better than being good at one thing and when you couple the Run game and the play action passing those are going to be the two things that you were expecting the Falcons offense to be good at this year and so this year is going to kind of be discovering which season between 22 and 23 is the outlier right meaning that you know was the good blocking in 2022 the outlier and this year is going to more resist resemble what we saw last year which was subpar blocking or was 2023 the outlier and this year is going to be more resembling of 20122 where you had very very good blocking that year and you know I think there's every reason to think that last year was the outlier and that this year you're going to see this run game and this offense bounce back and look more like the 2022 version of the Falcons you have the continuity of running it back with the same starting five you have the diversifying of the Run game from Robinson and so you know defenses will the Falcons will be less predictable and so therefore keep defenses on their toes and then of course you have beon being that sort of X Factor you know breakout featured weapon and being able to you know turn those three yard gains into five yard gains or turn those five yard gains into 10 or 15 yard gains because of his ability to make guys miss on the second reason so I think again there's every reason to believe that the Falcons Run game should bounce back this year I just typically happen to be a guy that tends to believe it when I see it right and I need to see it against Pittsburgh against Philadelphia against Kansas City right because we know that those are very good defensive lines and if this offensive line is going to be any good they need to prove it against formidable fronts which is something that they did not do last year that pretty much anytime they faced any you know blue or red chip D lineman D tackle Edge rusher or whatever those guys tended to take over those games and basically what I'm sitting here telling you if that continues to be the trend this year like we saw with Jeffrey Simmons last year in the Titans game like we saw with you know Derek Brown and Brian Burns in that week one game against Carolina uh and Kenny Clark in week two Etc right like if that continues to be a trend this year that's going to be a problem because pretty much every week they're going to be facing some Blue Chip or red chip you know defensive lineman or defensive tackle defensive end outside linebacker Etc and so if we continue to see those the offensive line struggle to block those guys it's going to create problems for this uh front not only in in the Run game but also in in the passing game so that's going to be a big question but I again I still think outside zone is going to be the staple of this offense um or you know yeah it's still going to be the staple of this offense they'll just diversify the types of outside Zone runs that they run a healthier dose of split Zone they'll incorporate more Duo more counter all those various things rather than just going spamming hardcore on outside Zone scheme but this offensive line is still built to be an outside Zone Zone scheme Jake Matthews is not a guy that you're going to be asking to just bully guys off the line of scrimmage that's not really his game he's an outside Zone guy Chris lindström You know despite his reputation according PFF as the best guard in football he's not the best guard in football he's one of the best guards in football but if you were going to make the argument why Chris lindström is the best guard in football is because he's one of if not the best outside Zone blockings guard right when we've talked in the past about what you're looking for in an outside Zone blocking scheme from your interior guys your guards your centers it's being that heat seeking missile in the second level to take out linebackers that's going to in uh open up creases for your running back to hit those second level and make those cut backs and whatnot and turning those five yard gains into 10 yard gains Chris Lindstrom is extremely good at that that's the thing that he's best at and so if you want to build your offense around this offensive line and that's a big part of why the Rams made that switch away from the outside Zone ac across thehan mcvey's time there and Zack Robinson's time there is because their personnel no longer fit really playing that style of offense um you know I think you're going to still lean heavily on the outside Zone runs game now you know there may be a time in the future where the Falcons blockers and and again buron and McGary are probably the two that you would say those guys fit well in could could fit well in a scheme that isn't heavily predicated on the outside Zone scheme but we'll have to sort of see like we've seen we've seen McGary do the stuff we need to see berson sort of make that step so we'll see see what the Falcons do but again I think the Run game there's every reason to believe that the Run game should be good this year that bejan's going to have this breakout year again I don't think it's going to be because hey they just utilize bejan more it's going to be like hey this offense is healthier in general and part of the reason of that again probably not the biggest reason for that is that bejan is is being utilized more and as long as the blocking is there they will be justified in using bejan more that's the other part that was missing from last year is like beon was the team's least efficient running back behind Bon I mean not berson Tyler air why did I say berson Tyler air in cord Patterson um and so like that was part of it where it was like yeah like the running game's a little bit better when they're not giving when they're not force feeding bejon but I don't think that's going to be the case this year so expecting a big year for Bon I should start calling him ban rather than Bean it's gonna be a hard habit to break but uh we'll work on it we'll work on it so today I I'll just go hard on the beon and moving forward I will try to call him Bon uh I just don't like it beon just sound somewhat better but um you know I can't even I can't even use the mama called him this I'm gonna call him this because that's not what his mama calls him so um you know anyway so we'll see what the Falcons Run game looks like this year guys uh we'll have more content coming your way talking about this run game as the week unfolds gives you some projections on this season my official uh you know preseason uh predictions will be coming later this week we'll have several guests on later this week um so you're in store for a lot of content this week so continue to make lockdown Falcons your first listen all you got to do is subscribe or follow for free on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast check out lockon NFL for your second listen check out lockon Sports Atlanta you know if you're feeling frisky about what the dogs did on Saturday check out lock on Bulldogs feeling frisky about what the Hawks and Braves are going to continue to do later this year then check out lock on Braves locked on Hawks it's all part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day [Music]