Valuable buy? CEO’s shareholder statement and arbitrage opportunity now gone! In depth analysis!

hi everyone welcome back to the podcast this is a Sunday morning and I hope you're feeling better after your parties and revelries from last night and you're recovering well and I have Dana with me as always on these weekends to have a conversation with you and d i has something which has been bought in a lot of you and you've been chasing Dana about it and believe it or not it's still about IDs yes sir I'm still surprised after so many videos and multiple platforms and multiple ways we have done this and uh people still have a lot of confusion about this so yeah sir before into the adfc topic I have come with the market movements of this week sir past video also we have made this again the Indian stock market in a sharp rally with the both Benchmark indexes like Sinex and Nifty P fresh alltime High Sinex up 1.77% 83 ,16 last close was and then Nifty 1.89% up and then closed up to 2,433 so it also in near fresh what's your view about that sir this like talking about the weather today it was 3° in the afternoon then it became 28° sir but according to the humidity index you should have felt like it was 36° Sir it's it's hot it's hot last one month fresh a fresh fresh we are very happy yeah there's funds coming into the market and we can't do anything about it we have to wait and watch yeah sir the thing is what you must realize there are always pockets of value like I've been telling you and it's like walking into the vegetable Monday today Tomatoes might be expensive because Supply was bad onions are expensive because Supply was bad has been raining coed some truck strike trck strike yeah but then you find some local lady who's got kir Garden in her backyard she's got K kir and she's selling the kir for very cheap so you say okay today Baba we drink we drink yeah we take kir make K sambar and we have that for lunch as simple as that doesn't help us how does it help you or help me or help them knowing it's going to Fresh time alltime high all time high same being reverse also doesn't help let's say it's an alltime low all time low how it do help doesn't help you need have money to buy no yes we are happy no no you won't be happy you'll feel very angry you know why you'll feel very angry let's say the market is going alltime low all time low like sir my fate if I just had one 10 lakh sir I will just go buy unfortunately right at this moment I'm too young and I haven't earned the money as yet could have come 5 years later I would have come as that well to invest lot of us have these kind of Notions and all of us have gone through it don't worry when the co crash happened lot of people are thinking the same thing when the financial crash happened in 2007 2008 lot of us were thinking these kind of thoughts are always there and plaguing human beings don't worry about it all these fresh time I don't even know that's why when you're telling me fresh time I oh was it so okay that news only I pick up and the second one sir gold rate in America all time are also because of the expectation of interest rate cut by fed it around 2562 per round and the another thing is the reason that will not impact in India because of the import Duty that was reduces in India so that's why the impact was not reflect in the Indian market well the thing problem is the Fed interest rate we do not know when it's going to happen yes it's expected to happen how much will happen when it will happen What stages will happen we do not know so the market is moving in accordance to that in expectation of that then the next is what you said about the Indian market you can't say but gold is not an investment class I only want you to buy enough gold for your safety that emergency fund yeah so you buy a by little and once you bought that 100 G or 50 g of gold that's it you don't need to buy anymore and you're not going to sell that gold it meant for an emergency I'm not asking you to buy and sell gold in profit saying gold is going to go to 8,500 rupees by December I will put all my money and buy 5 lakhs worth of gold and hope it goes 8,500 and sell it boss you'll be paying tax capital gains on everything and GST on everything and why would you want to do all that my principle is you buy the 50 g or 100 g whatever gram which you have said is your safety safety yeah and you hold on to that and the rest of the money which you have look at buying stocks yeah okay sir okay so don't Fascinate fascination of gold should end at that point of time I know people talk gold will go gold go so if you have nothing else to buy only have 60 rupes 5 rupes in your hand okay buy gold that's the way I look at it but now last video we spoke about all the ETFs which are there Pharma ETF Bank ETF those are very cheap so definitely you can also look at those you don't always have to keep looking at Gold you can watch that video also I will put in the description so right now we are going to enter in the video video Yeah idfc First Bank sir H many of the many of them are very waiting for the Arbitrage movement and then they are still having the price ranges seeing around of 73 of the idfc first bank and 110 of idfc they are waiting waiting waiting I think what you should do is like this Excel sheet which I have created for you keep it like this okay idfc 100fc not isfc Bank idfc 100 of those shares will change into after merger into 155 shares of idfc bank idfc is selling today at 111 R idfc Bank is selling at 73.5 right so you can see in how much Arbitrage so 111 into 100 be 11,100 if you had to buy 155 shares of idfc today at this price it'll cost you 11,395 so you'll save 295 rupes around 2 to 3% you'll save that is the arit is only going to be saving that's all so now tomorrow let's say idfc Bank price doesn't change only idfc is changing so you can just enter the price new price let's say it's gone down to 100 while this is still remaining the same then you save 1,395 rupes it was like this when Anand was talking the first time perfect example of Arbitrage movement sir yeah at the time when he was talking it was like almost like this yes sir yes sir okay right before the conversion was mentioned the merger was mentioned it was trading like this as soon as the merger started mentioning idfc Bank prices started going towards this it slowly went here then it went to here then it's now sitting it here eventually it will go somewhere to here then it'll go here arbitr finish yes then it'll go and settle somewhere like it evaporate correct sir no arbit yes it will happen this is what will finally happen this is the same to tat Motors DVR so keep this in mind the second out you'll have is this yes that IDC me ratio correct so the ratio if you divide one by the other the ratio is 1.55 that is the ratio so doesn't matter how many idcs you have so you I've put it again in another column idfc so there's amount of shares which you have let's say you only have 20 shares so 20 into 1.55 is 31 there's nothing left over okay now let's say it is 19 now it's left over yeah so you have 29 shares you'll get 045 is there right 4.45 will be multiplied into the price of idfc Bank idfc First Bank and you'll get 33 rupes in your account out of the 3 rupes they'll catch tax and everything so finally you get a couple of rupees that's it and this 29 sh Will C come so yeah so you can keep on changing it once you know whatever your numbers let's say you have 123 shares you'll get 190 shares and 65 65 into whatever idfc First Bank price is that will come into your account so you can put any number you want okay so if you're planning to buy also you already have 123 shares you want to buy five more shares you want to know you can say Okay 123 + 5 is 128 you can put that and immediately you know it's as simple as that when Excel sheet you open you enter the data and it tells yeah and now critical question all of you have is when when date when is it going to rain in December in Chennai tell me the date and the time no caned it it will rain sometime in month of December one day it will rain sir it will rain during night or day but when how what I do not know it'll come from the skyp so same way this will happen it's been announced it's been voted it's been approved so it's paperwork is going on approvals are going on so all that grossing the tees and dotting the eyes as they say is happening because in your mind you're thinking one so here one Chu here and putting it together and making one idly what is the big deal but it's not as simple there are assets physical assets there are account books people working payrolls everything has to be combined yeah so it takes time we are waiting for the one year long Gap what have you got to lose it's a good bank now more than the Arbitrage what you should focus now if you're buying this either one is that you're investing into the bank bank and if the bank is at correct price and a value buy then it's something to consider other than that fixating on this Arbitrage time I feel is over I don't think 2% 3% is a great Arbitrage to consider unless you're going to put something in the range of 1 CR if I'm putting one CR let me put some fancy ass numbers here so you can see let's make it both 73 73 so now they have a 56% Arbitrage good arbit yeah so if you're dropping the price drops idfc drops at 73 and idfc bank still says at 73 you'll have but Market will not allow this corre nobody's an idiot everybody will be able to see this me and you with little knowledge like H so you can imagine people with great knowledge okay who are looking at all these charts every second and every minute they're all looking at it that's why the Arbitrage is evaporates as soon as it spreads more than 3% people start buying it and either this can also correct we're only looking at this price going up and down so if this price changes here also 73 becomes let's say 80 80 80 the Arbitrage is arbitrage in minus yeah minus meaning you're paying more money yes sir see actually it's cheaper to buy the bank itself when it goes minus that means you're buying it's cheaper to buy so if idfc price Bank goes cheaper and cheaper where idfc stays at the same level they're actually losing money so you have to constantly now keep calculating so that's a very painful thing to do yes sir and what's happened to a lot of people is theyve bought maybe idfc uh let's say idfc Bank was at much at 72 and they've bought it at let's say 120 they bought because instead buying tiffen coffee they saw the Arbitrage and they went and put 1 black and now the Arbitrage is in minus so they're feeling the pain that's why they're asking when when tell me when how should I sell it you know because the Arbitrage keeps becoming negative like this for me because I've invested at 120 okay if you pull up the chart you can see okay if you see the 52 week high and low it was at 137 so imagine if someone has bought it at 137 how much pain he's feeling because at 137 let's say he's 135 let just say it he's looking at a loss of 177% if the mer happens right now so he's scared let's say from 72 it goes down to to maybe 65 by the time the merger happens his loss can be huge because he's locked in this price so everyone wants to know should I sell this now because I bought it at such an expensive price and take the loss and that is a complicated calculation because you have to take this minus today's price at 11 and see the difference of the loss but then have Capital loss instead of capital gains you have a capital loss so you can file the capital loss and cut your tax burden down because you made a loss so it gets really complicated comp yeah so if you have bought it for the Arbitrage you can't take the pain like I said 25% loss sell it if you can't take it but if you of the nature like me or like my brother or shashwat or even you now you can say it doesn't matter I'm getting idfc bank and idfc Bank in 10 years time will be at 2,000 rupes 3,000 rupes all this will be in the history yes but you have to hold your nerves like this as you watch the price go like this and it's hard I get that okay and people who bought it at 18 rupees I know because I one of those people who bought it at 18 rupees S as many of the SEC so that's what I'm trying to say I have lost also there have been companies which I bought who have disappeared that's not our fault sir this is the and there are companies where I didn't believe myself where I only bought one share I bought a share for 200 rupes now that company is trading at 4,000 I only bought one share M I didn't believe myself because like you I was you know like you I was learning investing at the time 2014 2013 it was I don't want to mention these company names because then everyone be like s has bought so I'll also buy so I bought like one share and I went and checked in my account I bought like it for 200 300 rupees now it's trading at 4,000 rupes that will also happen in the scenario yeah and there are companies which I bought for 500 600 rupes which today are trading at 30 40 rupes that also one scenario correct but both only about one one share but the mind will not look at the loss and be like damn it I bought more of that how do I know at that time both were equal that's why I bought one share of each so years later one has become like this other has become but the thing is if I put one lakh one lakh okay yeah and I'd forgotten about it the profit I would have made in this one would have outweighed the loss I made so that's what Anan says if you pick 10 stocks and out of those 10 stocks four turn into multibagger it will write off the loss you suffer in the other six yes sir I'm also looking at that out of 10 only 6 yeah so we will talk about that kind of a calculation next week next Sunday when people are sobering up in the morning we will do an analysis like that we'll take 10 companies ABC will mention these company names not put actual company names then people will get attached to them and I'll show you if you do that kind of a strategy what happens in 10 years 10 years and 20 years yes taking lump sums and dumping it and seeing what happens but the problem is you need to have stomach of Steel and Heart of Stone like courage yes because the reason why I know this is because it was in a demat account with a trading account where the company has gone so that cdsl account is still mine so I went and dug that cdsl and I went and logged on and checked and I found out I have one one shares in this company then I went and checked what is the market price of these companies then I like oh wow already we are B yeah it wasn't like I was sitting and thinking a it's there and I forgot you know I'll still watch it every day and not worry about it it's just that I forgot about like we buy you know your mother will buy something put it in the bank Locker some gift someone has gave some for your birthday you you were born and they put it in the family Locker then when you're 18 years old you'll go with your mother one day to the bank Locker she'll open then you like Mommy what is this oh yeah this Gold Cup when you were born your grandfather gave it like he gave this why no one told me mother like no need keep it back inside when you get married when you have child they give it to you like what's a point so much of life is like that okay we'll talk about that in Greater detail last one sir I have come with the financials and the results of the idfc so this is the last Point idfc First Bank and financial year 2025 net interest incomes are paid and ear difference was greater than 25% and gross non-performing asset was declining 1.9% all good yes sir and hear the problem net non-performing assets increased. 51% happens year on year and the deposits also increased 35% year on year sir that's good news if the only thing like I said the NPA I mean nonperforming going up slightly yes but it happens that also some reason I have been mentioned and the deposit is also increased 35% year on year if you have the exact number 2023 it was around 150,000 CR right now 2H 2 lakh super and then net interest margin it was declining 6.33% to 6.22% and then the CEO badan he was tell about he was have the three reasons that why this company has been strong ability to R the deposits it was every single bank is suffering HDFC is suffering that's why they're doing some jard taking their own loans and refurbishing the loans and selling it as bonds so everyone's suffering suffering yeah so this is great to hear that he's able to retain deposit and only retain and grow it yes sir we are strong in it clearly the at mon we are strong in it on the racing deposits and the C also sustained in 46% and the customer deposit is increasing 38% sir and he also mentioned that last point we are focusing on the top quality services we are providing like mobile app Services they are providing and then corporate govern also well being a customer of idfc as and a shareholder of IDC I can see both sides of it as a customer they have a lot of improving room for improvement as a investor I'm very happy with what the numbers are but as a customer of adfc boss you have to improve a lot they need to customer service they have great people working for them I'm not blaming them but their IT services they need to find a better it part so that's why he was mentioning we are focusing on that and the Cooper governance also good customer relationship also we are main customer relationship is great service is excellent only problem is I wish um their IT services were better and the last point that you are mentioning that net NP decreases for the reason you was claiming that the proficient increases for simple we can explain because of the join liability group portfolio that was created and then that portfolio was not rained because of the flood in Tamil Nadu yes so that's why they are not rainning and then idfc also raised some amount of 3,200 cres of equity he was selling to the insurance company and then he was Raising that money so that is the over view sir I think this is great and this Tamil Nadu flood was a problem let's hope this year we don't have any floods let's pray because I don't think yes I don't think not many people this year can afford to have a flood so let's be kind to those people who are in the vulnerable areas in Tamil Nadu let's pray that we don't have FRS anyway thanks son this is very interesting I'm glad you're doing your homework so well doing much better than I expected even much better than me so very soon you'll be able to do videos by yourself and you won't need me to cling on to you and play support for you great so thanks for watching the videos guys and me and Dan will see you next weekend do have a wonderful week ahead and uh anything else no sir okay see you in the next one and do like it share it and go follow Dana on Instagram and support him there and ask him your questions because these questions are actually from your Instagram questions we've been chasing him on and he's brought it to me thank you for watching the video and we'll see you next weekend bye