Portland Weather / Historic Heat Wave For Sept. Heat

hi everybody um hope you had a great weekend it is Monday evening on this Labor Day and I can't believe that after hitting 99 degrees this past Saturday and then cooling down so dramatically today that just like that not only starting Wednesday are we going to get into another run of three to four days consecutively of 90 Dee temperatures but there's even a better chance of hitting 100 this week than the fact that we just missed it back on Saturday so for so late in the season good grief here's a look at the um upper level model on Thursday notice the 591 contour line arcing well north of Washington the 594 upper level high or the heat Dome there it is and the ridging really impressive extends all the way up through BC up in Canada so this is hot weather pushing well well to the north now here's what I think you'll find interesting I found it interesting enough to look it up so the latest that PDX those records go back to 1940 the latest PDX the airport in Portland has hit 100 degrees in any calendar year is September 5th well that's this Thursday we could do it this Thursday Portland could also do it on Friday which will be the 6th and if so this would become an historic Heat way because we would break the all-time record for the latest in the season to see a 100° temperature 2024 so far the number of 90 degree days or hotter we've been up into the 100s those three days in July is 24 so if we hit 90 degrees or better on Wednesday which I think we will we do it every day into Saturday all of a sudden just like that we'll be up to 28 well the most we've ever had you may recall it was 31 days back in the summer of 20 8 so if we hit 28th this Saturday and then if there's another little Spurt of hot weather which there could be into mid-september then all of a sudden we're knocking on that door here's what I really find interesting and I hope you do too so the average number of 90 degree days is a stat that's been kept forever going all the way back to downtown Portland and PDX going back to 1940 so if you just look remember we are I'm not talking about what's causing it but it is absolutely factual talking site specific for Portland this is not even something you can argue our summers are getting warmer maybe it's a cycle maybe it's a fairly short-term cycle but for the time being our summers are getting warmer I take these records myself I compute them myself this is not something you can argue it's fact so for the last 10 years 2014 to 2023 this is just a 10-year cycle we're now averaging 22 days of 90 degrees or more and the Span in those 10 years as little as only 11 90 degree days that was not that long ago the summer of 2019 of course the most the summer of 2018 the year before when we hit 31 here's what's interesting so the weather service keeps historic 30-year averages that are reset every 10 years if that makes sense so the climate average in 1981 to 2010 was 11 days now I realize I'm not exactly talking apples to apples here's a 30-year data set and it was 11 days but if you accept the fact that the records show that we are dramatically warming our summers right now overall and you just take a snap shot of the last 10 years it gives you an idea of how much 22 days again I realize it's not apples to Apples 30 years to 10 years but the records that we continue to break for summer heat are just absolutely astounding let's hope it's not a long-term cycle of course a lot of people arguing that it is um we we'll find out I guess um all right so that's all very interesting quick word to the momentus wealth podcast you can listen on Apple podcast you can also listen on Spotify again this is a podcast that has a whole library for you to choose from a different invest M topics brought to you by the local investment firm that I trust that does my mutual funds and my retirement planning momentous wealth management licensed in both Oregon and Washington search their podcast and search their firm uh really really support typark uh and his firm that he founded in fact it's pretty cool all right uh let's get you into some hot weather this is the European model this is Wednesday so today and I'll talk about today in a moment only 70 in Portland tomorrow 80 Wednesday here we go this supports mid90s in parts of the Portland metro area 94 94 down in Salem 93 91 down into Elane County 96 degrees out into Pelon low 90s in Central Oregon this is Wednesday day one we know Thursday is going to be hotter let's check it out here's Thursday afternoon look at the weather models anywhere from 97 to 100 to 101 in the Portland metro area and the same down through Marian County 97 down in Eugene 100 out in Pendleton mid 90s in Central Oregon again Thursday's date the 5th is the latest in the season we've ever hit 100 degrees could we do it on Friday the 6th and set the all-time record this shows maybe Metro tips 97 96 maybe 100 that would be a record to 101 to 101 to 99 down through Maran County to 96 Eugene to 103 out in Pelon right about 100 over over here in dutes county in Central Oregon 99.99 now everything supports how hot we get Thursday and Friday we will not be as hot on Saturday this shows Saturday 80s to maybe low 90s if you look at the numbers 86 8990 here in the valley still 104 degrees out in Pendleton and then that cool off continues into Sunday so all the models are pretty much in agreement with what I'm talking about and the numbers that I'm giving you this just happens to be the European model but again pretty much all the models are in fact in agreement so why are we getting hot why are we at least on this 10 to 20 year cycle going back to 2000 of Summers doing this I did a climate report some time ago and it showed that since 2000 month to month to month including winter months in Portland we've warmed anywhere from I think it was about one to two and a half degrees just off my memory bank I I don't have the exact numbers memorized but it was somewhere in that ballpark so what going on for the Summers see this this is Wednesday here's what you can call a heat Dome if you like it's the center of hot weather nothing new about these upper level highs being the center of hot weather but heat doome has become a very popular term for this here it is the 594 Contour over Nevada California New Mexico the ridging itself up into the BC of Canada so these ridges are getting stronger more often and I'm going to say the same thing again but we're seeing these more often and that's why we the fact that these are getting stronger and the fact that we're seeing these upper level highs in general set up and park themselves more often during the months June July August and September than we used to is why we're getting these increased spurts of 90 degree weather and it's why instead of hitting a 90 degree temperature here or there we're doing it now three days in a row four days in a row 5 days in a row we did it seven days in a row back in July when we had 100 temperatures three days in a row so that's what's going on these heat domes are just forming more often and when they do form they're often stronger than they used to be so look at this thing remember the hottest weather is going to be Thursday and Friday here's Friday still ridging up into Canada the 594 High migrates a little bit over the four corners but we're still definitely in the hot weather and this time around looks like we get a bit of an East Wind which is a a hot heating wind for us on Thursday and Friday as well now if you keep playing this here is Sunday see this big upper level trough starting to swing in other models I just going to go to right there other models hold this trough off until as late as Tuesday but I think we definitely get some cooling on Sunday and for right now we have either a chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday of next week maybe both days as this cooler air starts to come in so that would end of course the chance of the hot weather that we've been dealing with I want to show you this this is currency of kgwtv the visible site picture I showed on TV um let me uh this is 8:00 in the morning let me see if I can just going no that's yeah the clock is not right I think this is actually this was going on the noon hour so forgive me the imagery clock was not correct I remember that but this is right about the noon hour today look how just solid the low Cloud deck is you can see it hitting the gaps of the Cascades and then it clears as you go out through the gorge it was clear up at Timberline but boy there was that low pressure center that came inland today remember we talked about this we talked about a chance of rain we talked about I I didn't really have a good handle on who was going to get rain and who wouldn't but we would definitely see scattered showers in the region we had thunderstorms today scattered out east well it turns out what happened was that low helped pull in solid low marine deck that just produced light rain or really it was drizzle for hours and hours this morning into the afternoon and PDX put 3100s of an inch of mostly drizzle in the record book so all things consider did the forecast nail what was going to happen today my forecast absolutely not we only hit 70 degrees but if you watched me you will remember me saying this low and I was positive we were going to have some precipitation in the state but I wasn't really sure how it was going to sit up set up sit up but this is what happened this is the way the whole thing set up today we had the hours of drizzle hope I didn't mess with your day too much okay real quick let's run through some forecast the numbers uh this goes in Metford 102 Wednesday 104 Thursday 104 Friday chance of a thunderstorm 99 on Saturday still 90s on Sunday wow hot weather there's Ben 83 tomorrow here comes the warm-up 90s on Wednesday 95 97 on Friday still 90 or better into Sunday wow oh hot Seattle gonna get 73 tomorrow gradual clearing 78 Wednesday Sunny mid 80s Thursday Friday and then cooling down going into the weekend okay all right how about Newport there is a bit of an East wind flow I think there could be or there will be I think 80° temperatures at the beach Thursday and Friday with a lot of sun those are the two warmest days this show is actually 78 Wednesday SE 81 Thursday 77 Friday wonder what that story is shows yeah look at that 86 degrees on Thursday that's very believable 81 Wednesday and not as warm Friday but boy that 86 on Thursday is very believable could even be close to 90 on Thursday along the coast so it looks like Thursday is the best bet if you love summer warm clear days at the beach it looks like Thursday this week is your best chance uh to go do that and here's Portland 7day I'm going 80 tomorrow morning clouds maybe some patchy drizzle but absolutely clearing out tomorrow during the day all Sunny 95 Wednesday 99 maybe 100 on Thursday I am going 100 on Friday that would set the alltime record if we make it for the latest in the season still 90s on Saturday but not nearly as hot cooling down on Sunday to 87 and then shower chance on Monday and Tuesday to start next week I'm meteorologist Rod Hill thanks for subscribing if you haven't please do so it helps me out uh we'll watch this Heatwave together and for now I'll wish you a good night