Monday 10 AM Tropical Update: Tropical Storm Francine forms

You could see there are a fairly healthy burst of storms, hurricane hunters in there. They have found that we do have a close circulation. Now, it's not moving very fast and we don't think this is gonna move very quickly for the next day for today. And really tomorrow, now we do still think this is gonna become a hurricane. The National Hurricane Center's new track as of 10 a.m. Here we go. This is a brand new track that's just dropping in from them. You can see they're becoming a hurricane by tomorrow and then this is where we could see it strengthen even more as it nears the Louisiana coast. We haven't seen any major shifts in the track with this 10 a 10 AM update. If anything, it's slightly further east, that's a trend that we noted with the 4 a.m. track as well. And you can see they're coming in right at Vermilion Bay and Marsh Island Wednesday evening as a category one storm. Now, they have bumped up the intensity and they're saying, and we're noting that this could be stronger at landfall if the storm is able to grow stronger in here. So that's the main thing we're gonna be watching out for as this landfall. Notice that includes the cone includes New Orleans, the Bayou parishes, Baton Rouge. Still all the way back to Lake Charles. So we haven't seen any significant shifts in the track, but we are certainly still on the east side of a land falling hurricane once again making landfall around a category one or so. But there are some intensity discrepancies on exactly how strong this storm could go. So in our area, especially in our bayou parishes, the close you get to Lafayette, Morgan City. These places need to be preparing for at least a category two hurricane at this point. Let's get making landfall Wednesday evening. So conditions will go downhill as we head into Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night, especially. Luckily it's moving. It'll be on out of here by Thursday. A closer look at that track. You can see there just south of Lafayette. There it is Vermilion Bay and Marsh Island. That cone though extending all the way into New Orleans, extending all the way down into lower Lafoe. So if this storm decides to take more of an easterly track, we got bigger problems in Southeast Louisiana. Of course, for us, we'd wanna track further to the west, but models are really locking in on the idea just south of Lafayette for landfall of that hurricane. So preparations being done today being done tomorrow because by the time we get to Wednesday. I think conditions will be going uh downhill as we go through the day models are showing that this does have that potential to wrap up into a stronger storm. Perhaps if it can really tap into the right ingredients. Tomorrow, we could definitely have that stronger storm making landfall. This model is showing something very similar to what the hurricane center showing landfall Wednesday. This one's a little faster Wednesday afternoon as a hurricane right there near Marsh Island and the moving inland notice we're getting bans through New Orleans. Now this is gonna have some drier and wind shear wrapping into it as it makes landfall. So hopefully that limits its ability to stay strong all the way until landfall. But, uh, one thing we're certainly gonna watch out for is how this wind shear and in uh drier impact the storm. Now, once we get into Wednesday night, we may start to see some dry air work in which would be a good thing that could limit the flood risk overall. Now, winds depending on how strong the storm gets and where the core comes inland, the winds are gonna get worse. The further west you had, I do think Baton Rouge and Lafayette and Morgan City are probably gonna see worse winds than what we see in New Orleans. With that being said, if that core of that hurricane is intact and it moves inland and close enough to the metro, then we have stronger wind right now, thinking 40 to 50 mile an hour wind gusts across a big part of the area, but even stronger, the further west you get where you could start to see wind gusts topping 70 to 80. That'll be closer to where the center of the storm is. Rainfall totals. Widespread 3 to 6 inches. But I do think there will be a corridor somewhere in here near the core that pick up maybe 5 to 10 inches of rainfall. Our latest storm surge numbers are coming in as well and some of these are quite high. We have seen these bumped up. This is gonna be around anywhere from uh Morgan City down through Port Fouch on that includes Terrebonne Bay into Saint Mary Parish into Vermilion Bay. 5 to 10 ft of storm surge. That's a fairly decent amount of storm surge there that we're gonna be watching for. That will be moving in on the east side of the storm. Now, storm surge from Grand Isle to the mouth of the river. That's about 4 to 7 ft that backs up into Bear Bay. Remember 2 to 4 ft for eastern Saint Bernard, 2 to 4 ft for Lake Bourne and 2 to 4 ft for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Mar Pa. We do have storm surge watches up for the entire coastal areas and our lakes. So storm surge is gonna be higher. The closer you get to the center of the storm And right now that looks like Morgan City and down at the Terrebonne Parish or Saint Mary Parish is where we're probably gonna see our highest storm surge with this storm. Hurricane watches are up for the area as well. Those extend all the way across our area. Um, I haven't gotten quite those updated in our graphic system yet, but those hurricane watches have been issued for uh portions of inland areas. We will see parts of our area to added to this. I do believe once this does update. So preparations being done today and tomorrow, because by the time we get into your Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, we do think those conditions will start to go downhill quick recap. If you're just joining us, we now have newly formed tropical storm Francine. Francine has its eyes set on Louisiana. We do expect this storm to make landfall Wednesday, late afternoon, early evening, likely as a hurricane right now, the hurricane center has bumped it up just a little bit. They still have it as a cat one, but there is some guidance that suggests this could be stronger if the storm is able to intensify more tomorrow. So that's what we don't want to happen. But right now, certainly watching an impactful storm moving to our region as we head into Wednesday and Wednesday night and then by Thursday, it should be well to our north and moving on out. So luckily this is not gonna linger. By Thursday morning, it's up around Jackson and then by Friday, it's all the way up into parts of the Midwest. So we've got a moving storm here which hopefully limits our flood potential. Once again, there is still some uncertainty in this forecast. The storm is really just getting its act together at this time. We will have our next big update for you, of course, here in the noon broadcast, but we will also have the intermediate advisory where they update things like the intensity at 1 p.m. And then the next track update will be at four o'clock. We will have that live for you as well with any additional updates. But for now, we're gonna send you back to programming.