BREAKING: Kamala Takes LEAD in NEW FOX NEWS POLL —Trump in Panic Mode!

hey guys it's Tim Miller from the polework we've got new polls out from Fox News uh that show huge progress for KLA Harris as compared to how Joe Biden was polling in four key Sun Belt states Arizona Nevada Georgia and North Carolina she is ahead of the former president in three of our four new Battleground State polls let's look at the numbers uh and kind of break down what we've learned here Topline numbers Harris is winning by two in Georgia and Nevada uh winning by one in Arizona and down by one in North Carolina so combined in all the four states she's up by one pretty close all within the margin of air but outside of the margin of air is the movement uh from the last Fox polls uh which were tested when Biden was at the top of the ticket in those polls Trump was winning by five in North Carolina Arizona and Nevada and by six in Georgia so the biggest swing has been in Georgia from down six to plus two an eight-point swing for Harris uh this is notable because it's I mean all of these states are important uh but you don't need to win all of them um and uh Georgia you would be the most important because it has the most electoral votes and winning Georgia would block Trump's easiest path to Victory which is uh winning all the states that he won in 20120 and then just adding Georgia and Pennsylvania if you look at his ads clearly that is his had spending that is um clearly that's what the Trump team has in mind they're trying to do uh you know kind of this inside straight where they they rewin all the ones they won in 2020 add Georgia and and Pennsylvania so if Harris could win Georgia that blocks that and makes Trump's path much much more complicated uh requires him to win some of those uh Rust Belt states so couple other things uh that are interesting in this poll uh the big thing I to wait for is what is happening down ballot with the Democrats down ballot but but before we get to that I just want to focus here on you know some other things that we learned in this poll um the the best news for Harris is that uh she has basically already matched the Biden number um among white voters uh in these states so I think there was some concern that there's going to be a group of older white voters that maybe was less comfortable with her maybe some latent racism misogyny maybe just Biden like was more their cup of tea more their style of politics not a lot of evidence of that in this poll the other good news is she has a big lead among Hispanics about 14 points um there had been concern that Trump was gaining ground in this demo no evidence of that in these four polls uh she she still has lost some altitude with black voters um she's doing better than Biden was doing in those polls she's gained um a lot of the vote back from from black voters right now she's about 79% which is a huge number but you're really trying to be up closer to 90% if you're a Democrat so that's something to monitor that could just be noisy uh when you look at these cross tabs like there's a much bigger margin for error for each of these demos uh but I guess that would be the one demographic group that you'd want to flag and I think it kind of explains um what's happening in North Carolina uh where she's still losing where you have to run up much bigger numbers with black voters in North Carolina and then and then much bigger numbers with college educated whites um since since there's fewer of them in that state than there are in the other states there's more Trump voters more non-oled whites so uh that that's kind of the demographic breakdown uh one thing uh to look at that would be the flag the concern if you will for Harris uh that is the poll number when it comes to who do you trust in the economy right now Trump 53 Harris 45 across the four states um the more concerning thing when you look at that is when you ask people what their top issue is economy is number one by far so that explains um the ad um you know we we did an ad review of the the most recent Harris ad coming out of the convention which was laser focused on the economy uh dealing with the people's concerns about costs talking about how we need to uh build more housing and address housing and contrasting ourselves with Donald Trump whose agenda is focused on helping the richest people in the country um we assumed this when we saw the ad but uh more evidence now that they're seeing in the polls you know some of their weakness some of the slack um among voters who are just really concerned about the economy and have this nostalgic positive memory for the pre-co economy and give credit to Trump for that that's BS it's not fair but that's some Turf that KLA is going to have to fight on make the case um and make this contrast about caring about the middle class strengthening the middle class versus Donald Trump who wants to care about the wealth so uh I think I expect you'll see more of that from the Harris walls campaign so across a bunch of other issues Harris has the advantage healthare of course abortion on some of these character issues who's more likely to unite the country who's fighting for people like you who wants to bring needed change uh Harris winning on all of those all right now the most interesting element of these polls for me uh what is happening in the down ballot races in Arizona where remember Harris is winning by one point only 50 to 49 Ruben gyo the Democrat rank for Senator against Carrie lake is up by 15 the B on the ballot gigo only has one point more than Harris uh it this is really a lot of these voters that are in Trump's camp that aren't going along with the other Republicans you're seeing this across the board but in these other states that the differential is even bigger in Nevada you got Jackie Rosen a democratic incumbent Senator winning 55-41 against a pretty weak Republican candidate in that state um but that said again you look at you look at Harris she's at 50 to 48 for Trump that's interesting rosen's at 55 Harris is at 50 that tells me there's room to grow for Harris there are people that responded to this poll saying that they are for Trump and for Rosen obviously those seem like very getable voters that is an illogical combo I mean I I'm not one of these people doesn't think that they're split ticking vote split ticket voting a lot of times there's logical split ticket voting um you know you you see it uh we talked a lot about Georgia about the camp waro voters Hershel Walker was just too crazy made sense um in a weird way kind of like a Federman Trump crossover voter makes sense like you can kind of Imagine who that person is Jackie Rosen is just a generic Democrat who is the Jackie Rosen Trump voter I don't see that so that's encouraging I think they see her at 55 U then in North Carolina you have Josh Stein the Democrat running for governor he's at 54 against Mark Robinson the absolute lunatic running that the Republicans nominated in that state who's maybe even crazier than Trump if that's possible um he's now down 11 uh that makes a little bit more sense you can imagine some Stein Trump voters because these people are just Republicans who look at Mark Robinson and say like we can't have a governor that that is like this person he just believes too much crazy stuff and he's too far right on social issues you know we talk about this how there's some voters who have a misperception of trump is not being that extreme on cultural issues um whereas Robinson isn't even hiding the ball on that so even still though to see Stein at 54 kamla down one Stein plus 11 again room to grow so to me the most encouraging thing about these these polls is how the Democrats are doing down ballot which shows that you know kamla um has more voters that are getable for her so if you put that together with positive momentum from Biden to kamla notable particularly in Georgia eight-point swing in the fox pole and then you see that there's still potential room to run uh because other Democrats have even better ballot numbers than she does um that is all in all pretty encouraging I mean don't don't you know don't get it wrong I'm still wearing my diapers over here uh you know only being up by one point in Arizona and and two points in Georgia I'm not sleeping easy yet but uh it is it is positive it's positive uh Direction and um you know we'll keep looking it'll be interesting Wednesday I always said that Wednesday the 28th was really the first day that we'd see polls that gave you a full picture of the race post convention um you know just to be a good pollster takes three days you don't want to pull in the weekends so so this fox poll is really the first poll that shows us that gives us a good look at where things stand right now and where they stand right now is a narrow lead for kamla Harris all right subscribe to the feed thanks for uh sticking with us all week uh we'll be back if there's new updates new news new polls New ads you order to find us right here on 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