California Weather: Thunderstorms, Cool-Down and Extended Look!

hey everybody Michael Snider California weather watch today is September 8th and right now we're looking at the visible satellite imagery I'm focused on Southern California right now because we're going to play through what happened yesterday had hundreds of lightning strikes out there we're going to go through that we talked about that the previous day here and we're going to have additional thunderstorm activity most likely as we go through the day today and we'll take a look at the extended forecast as we always do as we go through the video so let's go aad and play this through and you see we had that mid-level moisture out there and as we got going through the afternoon heating you can see those Center storms first pop up across some of the Peninsular range all the way up into California but then watch what happens as we go through the afternoon the Transverse Range getting a few storms some storms across the desert areas lightning just continuing thunderstorm activity continuing across the higher terrain out over some of the desert areas hundreds of lightning strikes as you can see very active day there yesterday and you can see Northwest Arizona getting in the action as well so we scroll on in through the nighttime hours and you'll see some of these Center storms went all the way on in through the night time here when we got the convective system out there that just was whipped us right on the California Arizona border all the way on into early this morning we start to emerge out to where we are right now and you'll see the lightning strikes continuing you see the sunrise here in this convective system just going to Contin to rotate across the border this Monsoon moisture associated with it and this is where we are right now here's the salt and se you can see that lightning just continuing so heads up for that and again we're going to go through this today across the higher terrain especially outside of Sandy aggo there is a slight chance some of those storms could drift out over some of the lower elevations as well so more on that here in a moment so we have rain possible coming up here there is a system that's going to be swinging mainly through the Pacific Northwest but it could be bringing some precipitation and clipping Northern portions of California that is for Tuesday morning September 10th through Thursday evening September 12th so this is the chances of getting greater than a tenth of an inch you know we're starting that seasonal change here starting to getting a little bit of a mid latitude cyclone down here it's always nice to see here we got the scattered storms Inland today this is San Diego National Weather Service you can see San Diego would be right about here you cannot rule out of thunderstorm out towards the coastal area San Clemente is right there there's San Diego and look at Big Bear Lake and Idol wild there 54% Palm Springs under the gun here as well thermal Joshua Tree National Park heads up the 40 15 the 10 the 8 watch out today thunderstorm activity is quite likely I also wanted to point this out up towards Reno and some of the Eastern slopes of this here in Nevada there is Red Flag Warning all the way 3 8 p.m. tonight some Gusty winds little relative humidities out there so be careful with that if you're out in Bat you can see Lake Tahoe would be here and this is where the Red Flag Warning areas are does include to Topaz Lake so looking at today's thunderstorm Outlook from Las Vegas National Weather Service it does cover portions of California and again there is that thunderstorm Chance Las Vegas about 22% better chances across Northwest Arizona and across the higher terrain of Southern California and you could run into some of that isolated flash flooding and Gusty erratic winds that we'll take a look at at here in a moment but you can see that General thunderstorm risk here it does include portions of Southern California and Nevada here up into the Pacific Northwest a lot of Arizona and Utah as well taking a look at what's coming tomorrow so this activity starts to eventually push off to the east as you can see you can't reel out a couple more thunderstorms here but the activity should be on the way and this would be day three we're looking all the way out towards Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning so lightning flash density potential today here's the high resolution rapid refresh put that into motion and you can clearly see the favor area here for the higher TR in Southern California out towards Las Vegas again cannot roll thorm activity here and then as we go through the nighttime hours it doesn't look like we're going to have one of those convective mesoscale convective systems as we go through the night tonight into tomorrow morning but then we look up into Monday and you can see that Thunder a threat mainly kicking off to the east but you still can't roll out a couple lightning strikes here across Bop so taking a closer look composite reflectivity on the high resolution rapid refresh I'll put put this into motion and you can see these storms develop as we go through the day today Los Angeles metro is right here there's San Diego getting pretty close some of the foothill areas there as well there's Palm Springs right here and you can see Las Vegas would be up to the top of this map there's the California Arizona border there and in fact since I forgot let me turn on the green circle there so it's easy for you to follow along but again yeah here we go through this afternoon those thunderstorms are going to develop again almost certainly across the higher terrain of Southern California and finally Wayne as we go through the evening hours looking at composite reflectivity on the North American model same map here put that into motion for this afternoon and you can clearly see good agreement there for that Thunder STM activity developing as we go through the day today so let's take a wider view of things here at 18,000 ft or 500 mil bar so this map gives a nice idea of what's going on and where the general trough en rid positions are we've had some heat and we've had this Ridge in place but as we put this into motion you'll notice a change coming here as this system down out of the north and west across Pacific Northwest you got the European artificial intelligence model on the left versus the GFS on the right that's the American model pretty good model agreement as you can see on the track of that initial system trough hangs out for a bit and then we get development of another one here you can see the European keeping that a little bit more off the shoreline here and that would bring a little bit better chances of precipitation here this is more of an inside slider look here on the GFS the track of that system will have big implications on what kind of weather we're going to get here across the state of California and then we scroll off into the future there looks like that gets reinforced a bit but I also noticed this the models are showing as we look way off into Fantasy Land way out there as we start to get toward September 19th and 20th we may even get some more ridging here across some of the western portions of the USA it's still September after all you know technically we're still in summertime here and and we could easily get another warmup as we go through the end of the month so keep that in the back of your mind as well now taking a look at the European artificial intelligence let's want to scroll ahead here and you'll see we have that system moving down through the Northwest just clipping Northern portions here not a big precipitation maker and then we start to look off into the future and that troughing starts to set up here you can see the Europeans starting to bring some precipitation down across portions of California here you don't want to get too excited just yet we're still looking quite a ways off in the future but that's not a bad look here so we'll just kind of take that and run with it and check back on it on a daily basis there as we go over the next few days and looking at 2 meter temperature anomaly this is where we are currently and you can clearly see that we are going to be going through a cool down coming up and it's going to be quite nice there's that initial system swinging through and then the Redevelopment of the trough let's see what it looks like look at that would be very interesting as we go through the mid portion of September start to go out towards the 18th and 19th that would be quite nice getting a break from the heat but then a caution here because Summer is not over yet folks or at least at least temperature wise as you can see that serves to return as we go to the later portion of September still pretty warm out there we'll see how that Trends I also got want to show you this this is about 2500 ft off the surface this is the thunderstorm activities we go through the day today watch these erratic Gusty outflow winds across the peninsula range and maybe some of the Transverse Range some of the desert areas up into Nevada across the SI Nevada you got the strong southwesterly coming across as well that's why there are some red flag warnings that I mentioned earlier but yeah Gusty erratic outflow so watch out if you're traveling back and forth across the highways in the desert going back towards Arizona or Las Vegas back down towards Southern California watch out for those winds especially with thunder storm activity as we go through this afternoon and evening now taking a look at total precipitation and niches I'm just going to run through this really quick because you can see kind of that scattered nature of the storms coming up here over the next day and then as we go off into the extended some trying around the Europeans showed a little bit of precipitation this is more like a fun forecast here just kind of a fantasy but just looking that we do have some chance of precipitation here coming up with that troughing through the extended forecast now this is looking at Mexico there there's Baja and there's California to the very top left here there's Southern California there's Arizona here so what we're looking at here is for any kind of tropical system development as we grow go on into the future here you can see this system spinning up here continues to show on the models we're about 120 hours out this would be about Thursday night and you can see this slug of moisture kind of moving up towards the Southwest portion of the USA some of that tries to make its way into portions of California but then if that next trough does come it is going to quickly eject that off to the East and that won't be that of a deal but we will watch this because you can see that's a pretty interesting look as that tropical system tries to bring a slug of moisture up into the Southwest USA of course we've breaken that down day by day so if we look at the European here this is mean SE level pressure map you got the Hawaii islands to the bottom left you got California right there let's put this into motion and we'll take a look at the extended forecast there goes that system moving through midweek coming up but what we're looking for here is generally any TR tropical system moving up or any kind of high pressure setting up over the interior areas in the great base and driving an offshore wind event so we scr into the future and you can kind of see that start to emerge here as we go through hour 264 this would be about September 18th at night time about 7 11: p.m. but you can see that this uh high pressure there that would be driving some offshore winds so we'll watch this time frame that has been showing up in the models you can see that kind of centered right over the Great Basin here that would be not a bad offshore wind event here not a bad pressure gradient setting up so we'll watch that closely as we go through the extended forecast and perhaps lasting for a couple days there as well but no promises just yet just taking a Peak at the crystal ball now looking at the national blend of models uh this is today Sunday September 8th and you can see this is Monday and you can see not too big of a drop there for Monday Tuesday you start to feel a little bit of a cool down and there's Wednesday especially Northern portions here might feel a little brisk across some of the higher terrain clamo range Cascade some of the SI Nevada and then we go through Thursday and we kind of keep things a little bit suppressed here and then maybe keeping them suppressed as we go through the extended four cast as that troughing could be hanging around some of the West Coast here so at least we'd be dropping off from the excessive heat we have been dealing with even some of the deserts in Arizona will'll be getting some relief and this is the average temperature for the last 30 days you can see kind of a mixed bag here that once you get to the yellow you're above average and then of course you take the steps up but you can see some of Northern California and Oregon and Nevada have actually been below average in the last 30 days however if you go about 60 days you can see virtually all of California has been above average for this time of year since July 10th and 90 days pretty Stark signal there very warm meteorological summer some places their record warmest meteorological summer which is June July and August so yeah lot of the West really baking this year and this is uh I'll zoom in on that this is total precipitation anomaly this can be deceiving a little bit here because you can see a lot of California just did not get any rain but you don't get that much rain at this time of year nice graphic here from uh the Oregon State University climate group uh so uh taking a look at normal precipitation here in September and again this is kind of showing you what I just what point I just made on the last slide but you can see we don't get a lot of precipitation across the state of California especially from many of the valley areas so when you're off by a little bit you know you you you the percentages can get skewed quite easily but now looking towards October you can see we start to pick up the precipitation here along the west coast especially the Pacific Northwest then we go on in through November this is monthly average precipitation see the here Nevada starting to get in the action of course uh Northwest California and some of the coastal areas then we go to December as well so yeah that's when storm season starts picking up here's the 6 to 10 day you can see the below average signal across the West Coast there's the 6 to 10 day precipitation Outlook take out with the grain is out you know we'll see how these systems go check back daily and I'll keep you updated but anyway yeah hope you guys are having a good day otherwise um click like And subscribe channel is doing great can't wait things for things to pick up and again watch out for that thunderstorm activity here today and yeah hopefully you guys can check back in tomorrow um otherwise have a good day we'll do this again tomorrow and I will talk to you guys then