2024 Election Map If Polls Underestimate Trump AGAIN! (Trump Wins BIG)

in this video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map if the polls underestimate Trump again just like they did in 2020 I mean look at a state like Wisconsin for example the polls said Biden was going to win by 8.4% in the end he won the state by 0.63 and so today we're want to take a look at the 2024 polling and adjust for the 2020 eror to show where KL Harris and Trump stand if the polls once again underestimate support for the former president we're going to begin on the west coast and move our way East starting off in Washington where polls overestimated Joe Biden by 3.8% in the last election today K Harris leads by 11.3 and adjusting for the 2020 error she'll be on track to winning the state by just 7 and a half percentage points Oregon is barely going to be a likely Blue State however things get even worse in Oregon where the vice president is ahead by just five points in the only poll conducted between her and Trump and in 2020 polling overestimated Joe Biden by 5.2% this means that if the polls are just as wrong this time again Trump would actually win Oregon by 0.2% margin so it's going to be a tilt Red State and in California KLA Harris's home state the polls were spoton four years ago they were what 100% correct they accurately predicted Joe Biden's 29o Victory and so we're just going to take KLA Harris's margin right now 24.5 the Golden State will be the only solid blue state bordering the Pacific moving on to the first competitive State on the map we have Nevada a state that hasn't gone red since 2004 KL Harris currently leads by 0.6% but that's not going to be enough Donald Trump was underestimated by nearly three points in the last last election and if we adjust for the error he'll be on track to win Nevada this time around by a 2.3% margin the silver state is barely going to be lean red but considering that this is a state that Republicans haven't won since 2004 a state that Trump lost in both of the last two elections by 2.4% this would be a pretty impressive Victory and Nevada is a state that is becoming more and more favorable for Republicans it recently elected a republican governor in 2022 and we're probably going to see a lot more GOP victories here in the coming years Trump is doing even better in Arizona where he already leads in the polling average by 1.6% only one out of the eight most recent polls shows Harris in the lead and it was one conducted by Fox News Now polling in 2020 it overestimated Joe Biden by 2.3% and so adjusting for that error Trump will be on track to winning the state by 3.9 this time around Arizona very narrowly went to Joe Biden in 2020 but we're going to see Trump win the state for a second time by a similar margin to his margin in 2016 Arizona is going to be a much more comfortable lean Trump state in neighboring Colorado we recently got our very first poll from the state KL Harris leads by 15 points and Colorado is one of the few states on the map where Joe Biden was actually underestimated in the last election he was underestimated by just 1% Joe Biden was supposed to win Colorado by 12.5 in the end he won it by 13.5 percentage points and so today with k Harris leading by 15 points in the only poll we have this is not a good poll oneing consult is a left leaning poster and it was a pretty small sample too but based on the data that we have Colorado is going to be solid blue while down in New Mexico Republicans were overestimated by 0.1% is not going to do too much to the polling average as we only have one poll it shows Harris leading by 10 she'll be on track to win by 10.1 as a result of the adjustment and New Mexico is going to be likely blue although in the end I totally expect both of these states to be significantly more competitive down in Texas we have 40 crucial electoral votes for Donald Trump and basically every single Republican nominee without Texas it gets a lot harder for the GOP and in 2020 it seemed like Democrats might have had a chance at winning the state in fact polling said that Joe Biden was only going to lose the Lone Star State by 1.1% this would have been the most competitive election in Texas going all the way back to basically the last time that they lost the state which was 1976 every Republican has been able to win by two points or more over the last nearly 50 years and so today Donald Trump leads by 7.3% he was underestimated by 4.5 5% in the last election and this will bring his adjusted margin up to 11.8 Donald Trump is the clear favored in Texas it is not going to be close the state will be likely in favor of the GOP while many of these states here in the middle of the country Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district which currently is going to be tilt blue along with Kansas and Oklahoma most of the states here in the middle of the country all very easily going to go in favor of Donald Trump we also have Alaska which is going to be solid red while Hawaii will be safe for kamla Harris before I continue only 177% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates moving up to the Midwest this is going to be a critical region and this is the region where the hlls get it wrong the most this is why Hillary Clinton only went to Wisconsin once in the last 6 months of the 2016 campaign nobody thought that the states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania which had gone blue reliably for three decades before Clinton's election nobody thought that these three states were going to be even competitive but in the end Trump came out he surprised everyone he won all three of these states and these states are the ones that won him the election in 2024 Donald Trump has to win just one out of these three and he basically locks KL Harris out and so we're going to begin Up In Minnesota where the polling overestimated Democrats by 2.1% in the last election KL Harris today she leads by 5.5 in the polling average is despite her running with the state's literal Governor Tim Walls who is a relatively popular governor and so with the adjusted margin she's only on track to winning the state by 3.4 Minnesota is barely going to be lean blue in Iowa the polls really underestimated Trump by a significant amount in 2020 by around 7 to8 points we don't have any 2024 polls from Iowa though but considering just how much Trump was underestimated in the last election we are going to place it in the solid red column while Illinois is going to be likely blue and Indiana solid red if you watched the recent debate then you'll know that the bias from the moderators is yet another example of the media environment in contributing to division and making it hard for people to think for themselves that's why I use groud news a website and app that gathers news from 50,000 sources around the world so you can stay fully informed and see through media manipulation check it out for yourself at ground. newselection time we can see here that there are over 600 articles on a recent story asking who won the Harris Trump presidential debate if we look at the coverage details and bias distribution we can see which news sources cover the story along with the breakdown of the political leaning of the outlets reporting 41% of them lean left while 22% lean right if we want to compare headlines we can see an outlet on the left reporting Harris won the debate and it wasn't even close while this headline from an outlet that leans right calls out the biased moderators from ABC with an intense election upon us I highly recommend groud news just go to ground. newselection time click the link in the description or scan the QR code using my link gets you 40% off the Vantage plan the same plan I use for unlimited access to all their features moving up to Wisconsin which criminally over estimated Joe Biden in the last election by around eight whole percentage points today KL Harris leads by 1.8% in the state she is boosted by the fact that Wisconsin does neighbor Minnesota the home state of her running mate however if you compare Harris to where Clinton was in 2016 Clinton right now was leading by four points in September eight years ago and she ended up losing the state in 2020 Joe Biden was leading by 6.5% and he barely came out with the vi Victory just on10th of what the margin said in the last election at this point in September and so kamla Harris today her 1.8% lead is most certainly not enough for her to actually win the state if we adjust for the 2020 error Donald Trump is on track to win Wisconsin by whopping six percentage points it's not even going to be close while in Michigan Democrats were overestimated by 5.1% and polling today shows Harris on track to win by 1.2 again compare this to where Clinton was in 2016 and Biden in 2020 this 1.2% margin simply isn't going to cut it Donald Trump is going to win by 3.9% if we adjust for the air another very comfortable State going in favor of Donald Trump falling in the lean red category polling in Ohio was basically just as inaccurate as it was in Wisconsin Joe Biden was overestimated by 7.2% Ohio was supposed to be a onepoint race according to the polls but in the end Trump won the Buckeye state by eight times that margin and considering that he leads in the polling today by 9% adjusting for the era in the last election he'll be on track to win by 16.2 Ohio is going to be solid red just like Iowa and in Pennsylvania the polling right now actually shows a tie compare this to where Clinton was in 2016 she led by 6.2% in September Joe Biden was ahead by 4.3 and again Clinton lost Pennsylvania Joe Biden B barely won and so with the polls having overestimated Biden by 3.5% in 2020 Donald Trump today is on track to flipping the Keystone State and winning it by a 3.5% margin in the Northeast most of these states are going to be solid or likely for the vice president Vermont Massachusetts Maryland the District of Columbia and the first district of Maine all solid blue while Connecticut Rhode Island New Jersey and Delaware are going to be slightly more competitive and the second district of Maine is going to be likely red and so beginning with the Empire State of New York this is the first state we're going to take a closer look at in New England this is a state that Joe Biden was supposed to win by 30 points he eventually won it by 23 and to considering that KL Harris only leads by 14 points according to the only poll that we have so far her margin will go down to 7.7 if we adjust for the last elections error the empire state will be likely blue and just nearly over that 7po threshold in New Hampshire Democrats were overestimated by 3.7% Kel Harris currently leads by five and so with the adjusted margin she'll win by just 1.3 New Hampshire is very competitive in 2016 we saw Donald Trump get within half a percentage point of winning the Granite State against Hillary Clinton and so once again New Hampshire is going to be a tilt Blue State and finally up in Maine the two votes that come from the the atlarge results in 2020 Joe Biden was overestimated by 3.9% he was supposed to win by 14 points he eventually won by nine and the latest polling in Maine has Harris up by 13 and now this is some pretty bad polling this University of New Hampshire poll the chair was Harris up by 17 there are so many things wrong with this but we're just going to roll with it for the purposes of this video with the adjusted margin she's going to win by 9.1 she would still do better than Joe Biden in the last election which is almost impossible concering Joe Biden won main by three times the margin that Clinton won it by in 2016 Clinton won it by 2.9 Joe Biden won it by 9.1 and so Hillary Clinton barely won it Joe Biden did better combo Harris is probably going to win Maine by somewhere in the middle definitely not by nine and now to finish off the map in the Southeast most of these states are going to be solid red Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia and South Carolina all easily going to go to Donald Trump while up in Virginia KL Harris leads by 5.3% but Joe Biden was overestimated by 1.7 and so this means that her lead will cut down to just 3.6 Virginia is definitely another key state for us to keep an eye on it can definitely get very very competitive in the next eight weeks while in North Carolina Donald Trump was underestimated by 3.3% according to the polls from the last election he was supposed to lose the Tar Hill State but in the end he he won it for a second time and today he is on track to winning it for a third he leads by 0.1% in the polling average and with the adjusted margin he's on track to win by 3.4 another comfortable lean Red State going in favor of the former president while in neighboring Georgia this is one of the few states where the polling was actually relatively accurate in terms of all of the Swing States Joe Biden was only overestimated by 1% he was supposed to win by 1.2 he eventually won the state by 0.2 and so today with Donald Trump leading by 1.3% the adjusted margin will bring him up to a plus 1.3 and so the peach state is going to be the only tilt Red State on this map besides Oregon which in all honesty of course kir is still the favorite there but just for the purposes of this map and proving the point that Donald Trump is severely underestimated every single time it is also going to be the other tilled red state for now and finally in Texas this is another state that Biden was supposed to weigh a base on the polling just like North Carolina but he ended up coming up short in fact he did worse than Clinton from 2016 she only lost Florida by 1% Joe Biden lost it by nearly four and so Florida overestimated him by six points last time and considering that Trump today leads by 6% in the state with the adjusted margin he'll carry it for a third time by 12 percentage points and so if the polling is as criminally incorrect as it was four years ago Donald Trump is on track to win 320 electoral votes to KLA Harris's 218 thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below