Bet Bryce Harper & Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros? MLB Picks 8/26 | Payoff Pitch

Subscribe to the New BBOC Channel! what's up college sports fans I'm Stucky I'm Colin Wilson I'm Mike calib I'm Maria Marino I'm Charlie dko and we're excited that the big bets on campus brand is launching its very own YouTube channel you'll be able to find every episode of the bboc podcast live shows and other college sports content on this new channel not only will the channel be dedicated to betting on college sports but you'll also be able to find exclusive interviews with former College athletes college football power range ings and updates on other topics like the brand new college football 25 video game series and the ins and outs of the recruiting Trail all the way down to the transfer portal whether you're into college football college basketball college baseball or any of the college sports we are the home for college sports and bboc is the channel for you make sure you subscribe so you don't miss any of the action I'll see you there welcome in payoff pitch action networks major league baseball betting Introduction podcast we are presented by bet MGM Brendon glashen on this Sunday night August 2th joined by Shan zerillo and Charlie dko we getting you set from Monday slate in Major League Baseball Monday slate August 26th 12 gamer so not quite everybody but a a good bunch of games here uh coming your way on Monday a couple of uh afternoon starts Royals and Guardians technically begin this slate at 1:10 Eastern and then the continuation of Blue Jay's Red Sox more on that and Buckle in for what is going to be be a fascinating circumstance and situation happening at Fenway Park uh in that game more on that and then we'll get to Underdogs and final bets first though we'll start with Best Bets Sean zerillo where are we landing on for Monday three totals I bet on the board MLB Best Bets the one likeliest to be available at the price Target I want in the morning is Braves and twins over 7 a half I projected this at 8.53 so over 8 up to minus 110 would be my price Target currently at 7 .5 - 115 to-18 is where I bet it going to be 91 degrees at first pitch in Minnesota tomorrow beautiful or Hot August temperatures in Minnesota the only time I've been in Minnesota was in mid August it was absolutely stunning there it made me want to move to Minnesota aside for my knowledge that it gets very cold there in the winters but it was beautiful baseball weather when I was able to go to a game there it seems like it's going to be particularly warm tomorrow we're going to talk about temperatures around the rest of the country up in Boston closer to 71 degrees so 20 degrees warmer in Minnesota compared to Boston and certainly even though the wind is blowing in about four miles an hour that does upgrade my Park Factor at Target Field by about 5% Target Field pretty much a neutral Park League average Park ta Factor 100 but tomorrow can boost It Up by about 5% um so as I said would make this closer to eight you know on a normal day I think it should be closer to 8.5 for Monday's game Max freed from 2020 to 2023 Max freed started 83 times he posted three walks or more in just 10 time 10 outings across those 83 starts okay 10 out of 83 he started 20 time 22 times this year he's had three or more walks and half of those starts 11 to the 22 he's been on the I his strikeout rate is down his walk rate is up the stuff plus the velocity now the velocity is actually fine but the stuff plus ratings are trending downward and since his last El stin 133% strike out minus walk rate 92 Stuff Plus 98 pitching plus he was closer to 18% and 100 on those marks beforehand so he's come back off the aisles shown reduced metrics walks have gone up strikeouts have gone down and overall in the year walks have been up strikeouts have been down so I think Max Reed evidently pitching through injury you know with the Spencer shrider injury and all the other injuries that the Braves have sustained Max freed wants to continue to go out there and pitch for them I'm not sure what his contract situation is actually because we brought up just Joe musk the other day and I immediately knew in the back of my mind Joe musk have been extended so if you could look up for me Brennan what Max Freed's current contract situation is that could partially be playing into it I don't remember if he ended up getting signed um but on the other end bayy obber has a home run issue it's going to be warm in the brave swing for the fences and try to hit fly balls that's all they do over career 1.4 home runs per nine so 8.5 my projection bet that's over to eight at minus 110 and uh you know hopefully Max free gets roughed up a little bit as he's continuing to show some shaky command he's on uh arbitration avoided uh 15 million and he's gonna be an unrestricted free agent going into 2025 there you go so he's he's trying to get to the end of the season because he's trying to get paid and this has been unfortunately for him the least healthy and worst year he's had of you know his Peak career so yeah wrong timing but that's why he's trying to stay on the field fair to bring up though at this point I mean we are as of next week when we're doing the same record time we're into September and these are the kinds of things you got to monitor um for daily slates okay Charles what's up best bet for Monday yeah I'm not not staying away from sides uh I've banned myself from that for a little bit uh after the Mets blew it and the Astros first five came to a close thanks to Ramone yurias so I have home runs that I'm gonna be playing in the market uh the first one and my favorite one is Bryce Harper uh home run against Rell Blanco props aren't really up right now um but I'll be playing this as long as it's not like plus 285 which I assume it's not given the fact that Bryce Harper hasn't hit a home run in over 15 days uh the first it's it's he's basically gone the entire month with just two home runs but I think this is a great match up to buy on Bryce and you look at his fang graphs rolling hard hit rate data they they've absolutely spiked the past week uh if you look at his like rolling 10 15 game you see a huge spike in hard hit rate uh but the the success really hasn't come Harper is hitting you know about 200 in the last week or so couple weeks uh and ronel Blanco I've been on this show plenty of time saying how he's due for some negative aggression it's been coming in the second half he's been a much worse pitcher uh and his expected ER Still Remains around four and his actual e has jumped up above the twos into the threes uh but there's still negative aggression to be had he gives up a near 10% Barrel rate and is a really high flyball pitcher about 44% of the time and then add another like 18 to 20% of line drives and that's ronal Blanco he doesn't put the ball on the ground he's been benefited from you know Fly ball outs just maybe dead ball or whatever it is he has a 208 batting average on balls in play I think all of that's going to come you know a negative aggression for Blanco and I think Bryce Harper is the perfect guy to do it given you know the recent track history on the under metrics for him you know the success hasn't been coming as much he's had a couple doubles the last couple games but I think this is a good time to buy on Bryce I'll probably be playing his total bases but uh definitely looking at him for a home run it'll be like in the 80s out in CBP the wins very little but blowing out four miles to right field so I think that Bryce can pull one uh and and get get get do some damage against Blanco here okay very good Bryce Harper seems do let's dive into our Fai the public public segment so to be very clear the Red Sox and blue jays are playing twice on Monday the game we are going to discuss in terms of the fade the public is going to be game two uh the game that's actually already on the schedule but the Red Sox and the Blue Jays are resuming a game that was suspended from earlier in the year and that does I think factor into the discussion of the handicap so for the uh the splits according to the action app 87% of the cash uh of the money and 99% of the bets are coming in on Boston over Toronto the pitching match up in game to Brios and Nick pavetta but Shan zero I think it is worth mentioning what's happening in this continuation of a suspended game to lead off the day yeah it impacts the handicap because I need to see how the bullpens play out to fully know where I project the total for game two uh that is absolutely part of the handicap and they're starting or they're resuming the second in uh with a 0 game so lots of pitchers could potentially get used depending on how long the starting pitchers go um I haven't uh looked into actually whether Rodriguez and cutter Crawford who had originally started those games for Boston and Toronto originally are going to start or continue pitching I should say tomorrow I would imagine those are the listed guys right now so yeah I would imagine they could continue to try to pitch them but the most baseball thing of all time is happening right at the start of this game uh so this game was suspended on June 26th uh Danny Jansen was at the plate at the time for the Toronto Blue Jays he was in an 01 count one two Rand Danny Jansen now on the Boston Red Sox ree Maguire who was catching the game at the time for the Red Sox no longer in the roster so Alex cor has said that Danny Jansen will catch the game or the resumption of the game for Boston the problem is he's still hitting for Toronto and needs to be pinch hit for so Danny Jansen not only is going to become the first player in MLB history to play on both sides of the same game he probably also will be the first and only player ever to catch the atat that he originally started what is unfortunate about this is he was in an 01 count not an 02 count if he was in an 02 count and the pinch hitter struck out strike out would get credited to Dan Janson so there could have been a possibility my God already an 02 count that he could have struck out in an aat that he was actually catching unfortunately the the batter who pinch hits will be responsible for the result of the atat no matter what because the count was only on one but yes this is the most baseball scorekeeping thing of all time I remember there was a a player I can't remember who who ended up having a home run before his major league debut because of a suspended game if you guys recall that one I believe from last year uh because he he came up then they resumed a game from earlier in the year and he homered in that but his major league debut was technically after that game had originally started so he homered after who was that Soto right yeah f you know in my mind it was much more recently the only thing I see about it you know on the internet Googling it quickly is Juan sto was Soo because you know what it was I was I was interning for NBC Sports in DC at the time and I wrote an article on that I'm pretty sure if you I'm pretty sure if you Google that I might be the article writer for NBC Sports I actually remember I was at the game and that it happened funny enough no kidding okay I think this is all so but so we get back back on track the point being here Sean is you you got to see what would be your play as of right now seeing where the line is for game two that's all happening in game one and then 705 we have a second game Red Sox chase at Fenway yeah you want to watch that first at batch just for the the amusement of the start of that game and all the commentary surrounding it I'm sure we'll get some uh little baseball historical anecdotes as well I'm sure they'll have ready to go for that but I did bet the under nine and a half as of Sunday night the total has moved down I believe from 9.5 to 9 assuming the bullpens are not overused in game one assuming you know average rest for the relievers or like the average of the bullpens is available for game two I'd make this 8.57 so I'd bet the under nine to minus 105 if more relievers get used I'd probably knock it down to nine and even money you know and so forth depending on how much usage there is but would not go past nine and minus 105 for now May shorten that up a little bit probably will not extend it out Beyond minus 105 I think that's the the the uh juiciest number that I would take now here's why so as I mentioned drastic temperature difference right Minneapolis versus Boston Boston it's going to be 71 degrees at first pitch for the evening game tomorrow bit cooler um but Jose buros who's a guy who is always better at home than on the road I don't necessarily care about his home road splits he sort of neutralized them in the past couple years but he's pitched much better of late and he's a guy bet on or bet against a lot this season 3.8 ER 4.97 expected ra 92 Stuff Plus uh 99 pitching plus both career lows but over the past 30 days The Stuff Plus is up the pitching plus rating is up his bot ER has gone from 411 to 3.5 his strikeout minus walk rate has gone from 10.44% to 18.6% and the like across the board you know better results uh three I think three out of his past four games he's gotten a quality start the strikeouts are up the walks are down the bot erra and all the pitch modeling metrics are trending in the right direction so I I think Jose Brios is pitching the best that he has pitched all season I don't really know what's going on with the Blue Jays considering he's pitching well bow and Francis almost threw a no hitter the other day and I've been on bow and Francis and multiple starts now he's having a a very odd age 28 breakout so the the Jays have had a miserable season they seem like they're getting decent starting pitching here from some of their guys at the end uh Nick Peta by the way still retains the highest Stuff Plus figure amongst starting pitchers of baseball at 135 he hasn't pitched to it you know he's pitched to an expected ra of about 4 395 the past two years I think that's where I put Nick Peta but yeah the the weather a little bit cooler uh should knock this should knock this total B down by about 10% you know Boston plays about 15 177% above the Major League average um we'll talk about another total in a little bit I said Target fi is about a League average Park Target Field should be playing similarly to Fenway tomorrow actually I think they should both be about four or 5% above above a League average Park but that's bumping up Minnesota by 5% and downgrading Boston by 10 to 12 per. so should be playing about the same but for different reasons okay there you go uh Charlie sticking with your theme of home runs uh you got a target a player Target in this game game two Red Sox and blue jays yeah Rafael ever I think uh is the guy that I'm targeting here and you know Sean mentions the you know the the recent Red Sox vs Blue Jays Picks success of Jose Brios he still is giving up home runs outside of the last game against the Reds and especially on the road he's giving out uh giving up a lot of home runs so that's where I'm targeting it I don't like I I think that Des is is the best option in the Home Run Market when it comes to that um like for me I still look at it and I look at baros on the road I'm still a bit concerned about like a fiveyear ray on the road and the kick here is that he's given up 19 homers in 73 and a third Innings on the road versus at home it's only eight across 83 and a third so um you know maybe it's it's solo shots that come through and maybe it's maybe de dies on the on the warning track but the hard hit rate um being over 42% and still around where he was two years ago is a bit concerning for me uh DES in general just absolutely crushes right he's the 320 average and Ops that's near one 1100 so uh I'm looking toward de's in the market in that one um he's been playing you know better of late hit a home run uh today and I like to Target guys especially in the total bases Market off um like another home run or off an extra base hit where they're seeing the ball well and they're hitting the ball hard and and so that's where I'm looking at DES and even in the game against the Dbacks before that he had a really hard ground out a single and two walks so maybe he's pitched around but if he's not I think he's live to do do some damage in the Home Run market so I want to qualify the the mention that I made about BOS like improving his home road splits you look at the actual results they have not improved you I mean you cited it the eight eight on home uh 19 on the road I mean that's absurd but the expected ra or the expected FIP in the strikeout minus walk rate are virtually identical uh 1.1% the strikeout minus walk rate different his expected fit is uh I'm sorry the I was looking at left your right splits stra minus Walker TR is basically identical home in Road 19.1% 19% expected fit at home 4.33 on the road 4.54 so it could be like a mental thing where like he's getting into the similar situations but on the road like he just kind of melts down and leaves a meatball over the plate but what I will say and is why I wanted to say that if you look at his career home road splits and the expected fit he's uh 710 of a run better at home than on the road 3.8 versus 4.5 when I said like the the splits have improved on the road it's actually not that he's gotten better on the road I think he's just gotten worse at home and they've sort of like pushed together but yeah the the expected fit the past two years I believe is like very very identical the strikeout minus walk rate very identical but if you if you look at his longer career sample the strikeout minus walk rate at home is 5% better the the expected FIP is S10 of a run better but I don't I've never put like personally a ton of stock into Home Run splits for guys I think do sort of even out over time obviously guys playing at cores or guys playing in like particularly offensive advantageous or suppressing environments they are going to have noticeable splits but if a guy is playing at a league neutral Park guys playing in Minnesota they should have pretty comparable home road splits Brio played in Minnesota for most of his career so even uh even Rogers Center you know was 96% 100% of The League average run environment pretty pretty League average park depending if the RO is open or close but yeah I would expect him to be a guy who whose performance is the same home and road but like you know I could quantify it with the expected stats but then like I said you may get in situations or jams where he's a little bit less comfortable on the road a little bit less comfortable on that mound and just serves up a meatball and is getting worse results that's that's something that I can't quantify but something that I think intuitively makes sense okay very good there you go um enjoy that if you have a chance to throw on Red Sox and blue jays uh twice one ESPN Plus for the uh continuation of the first game and uh they're on MLB Network for the second game underdogs Charlie's gonna pass on the dogs as you heard is spiel from the top zerillo does and zerillo's got a uh targeting a particular particular team I'm curious to hear this yeah I haven't bet the White Sox really at all this season which has been to my benefit the white socks are probably the 2024 White Sox White Sox vs Tigers Picks probably the worst team to bet on that I can ever remember uh obviously 31 and 100 this season they're pacing for an MLB worst 123 losses worst of all time but also worst winning percentage of all time and if you consistently bet $100 on the white socks across all 131 of those games this season you'd be down five grand nearly $5,100 with a minus 39% Roi astounding usually the worst teams in a season the ROI is like minus 8 to 12% % not minus 40% they've been they've been particularly bad but here's the kicker first five innings the white socks 4765 and 19 minus 220 for a consistent $100 better minus 1.7% Roi okay I think we found out to about the White Sox if you're going to bet them first five or pass obviously not betting them first five every game but I do think the DraStic difference in Roi between the first five and the full game shows you how crappy they're buen is and how also just like the will to win is not there in the late Innings twtw the will to win it's just not there in the late innings for them they've no motivation to win but early in the game when they're starting pitchers on the mound and you know all things are equal yeah they they seem to be like a 5050 team on the first five money lineer they're winning at 42% but in relative to the odds they're like a coin flip and they performed about as the betting Market would expect them to they've drastically underperformed the full game market now I give them a slight starting pitching Edge for Monday's matchup Davis Martin has a 414 expected ra a 436 body ra 102 Stuff Plus 97 pitching plus because the command is wonky but the guy he's facing Tai Madden I believe making his major league debut and Triple A Madden had an 11% walk rate Major League average is about uh I think 8% 10% so it's it's well above the Major League average uh 95 pitching plus 94 location plus 99 Stuff Plus and I always said those goes backwards but he's very comparable in terms of pitch modeling metrics to Martin except he's slightly below him Stuff Plus is down three points location plus is down three points and the pitching plus is down two points so the the pitch modeling metrics are there to tell us like how guys compare once they jump into the big leagues it's it's supposed to be a good predictor of what these guys are even though they're not pitching in the major leagues pitch modeling metrics say they're comparable at best if not slight Advantage for Martin who also has the major league experience and a bit more Comfort um I made this about even money for the first five and minus 105 for uh or I should say White Sox plus 105 for the full game so plus 115 or better would technically be a bet for me on Chicago I think I'm just going to stick with the first five line though I saw plus 120 out there at a very popular book I saw plus 108s to plus 110s out there at two other books so plus 108 for better plus 108 or better for me on the Chicago White Socks just in the first five innings if we bet them the rest of the season I think it's only going to be first five not full game because that that Roi is uh astounding for the White Sox this year Ty Madden is a first round pick out of Texas first round pick in 2021 so um something arm Talent good stuff but the the walk seemed like a concern I mean maybe he's you know improved the command more recently which is why they're bringing him up but also the Tigers have just been throwing Bullpen games like every single day you know starting bro brisy or Alex Foo and then throwing a different guy behind them so at some point they did need to bring guys up to actually give them Innings because they couldn't Bullpen it forever the rest of the way well and see and maybe by keeping scoble at the deadline see if you're building something rotation wise for the going forward right um I think right for former the Oriol wish they had sco now with effin going down and Grayson being down and Corbin burn struggling a little bit Trevor Rogers sucks well we all we knew that was gonna happen but there is a well go go ahead I was just going to mention that there's a there is a path on the Orioles under to still maybe come through you think it's possible yeah given the pitching they have uh certainly there's their series with the Astros uh where they they came back each of the past two days and then also again tonight we'll see we'll see how this game ends up finishing out if they come back one more time in the ninth inning but yeah I think there's still a path for the Orioles to not obviously finished with the second seed in the AL but to potentially go over or go under 92 and a half 91 and a half um it it's unlikely but they they slowed down from where they were earlier in the year they were they were projecting for like 96 to 99 wins early now they're pacing for like 93 to 94 they have to play 500 ball the rest of the season if if they lose today it's 500 ball is under 91 and a half yeah not happening and that's that's the thing once you get to the end of the season is you start miscounting like or you see like okay they have to play at this pace but then you're like yeah but there's only 30 games left like so what does that entail and as as Charlie dis Quantified it entails going 500 which is not happening yeah 15 and 15 the your best case scenario is that they get to like the last series needing a win and they just absolutely sit everybody because they're like screw it we want to play in the postseason um yeah Ray is over 84 and a half is still possible they need to play some good baseball the rest of the way and they have a very tough schedule the rest of the way so that that also seems unlikely but I think of the two that's far likelier interesting yeah the ray blowing two games against the Dodgers too was not helpful okay good deal I mean you got to factor this stuff in though coming up now with the uh you know clinchers and hangover games all that good Astros Futures even the Astros like having this opportunity against Baltimore they could have had a four- game sweep in Baltimore potentially they won the first game they blew leads in the second and third games and they're winning again on Sunday after blowing a three run lead in the fifth inning of course but they they had their chance to like make a real move for the number two seed the Guardians swept and now the Guardians host the Royals in a hugely important series this week over the next few days so that's going to be massive for the AL Central but also now the Guardians are six games in front of the Astros you know it's seemed like a few days ago maybe the Astros Clos them down while the Guardians are closer to the one seed than they are to the Astros at this point so it might be the Yankees who have to fall off for the Astros to get the number two seed and yon's hurt and I don't know what to make of that so yeah I haven't fired on Red Sox or Astros Futures yet we're still in a holding pattern but I want to see uh if yordon comes back tomorrow or if they do stick him on the a okay let's head into our final round uh zerillo's got one more totally wants to discuss and Charlie has another Home Run play we will get out of here go ahead Sean Yankees Nationals over nine I would bet this up to minus 112 beted at Yankess vs Nationals even money tonight it moved up uh closer to minus 110 but projected this at 9.6 warm weather in Washington 86 degrees wind blowing out to right field 45 miles hour Nationals Park typically about 5 to 6% above Major League average should be closer to 10% tomorrow so slight Park upgrade um now nestar Cortez has been really sharp his last two starts I think back toback seven shutout innings in each of those outings and Mitchell Parker coming off a really good start against the Rockies seven seven Innings one run the Yankees are also in their ler split like there's you know not a good argument I'm making for the points of this game that it's a numbers play um the the Yankees I just want to point out though they've been about first on the entire I think first or second all year against right-handed pitching opposite since the All-Star break either first or second um but against lefties they're closer to 10th so just something to keep an eye on going forward the Yankees do hit righties better than lefties and if you're going to attack them on the money line generally you want a left-handed starter facing them um the Nationals though the Nationals are frisky they put the ball play a lot they score runs like I I was betting against them earlier in the year I had their win total under they've been pacing for like 74 75 wins the entire season they just brought up uh their top prospect right yeah Cruz y yeah and James has been up the entire year I'm not sure if James Wood has pulled the Fly ball yet there was there was a yes he did he he pulled his R yeah yeah a three I think it was a three 0 or a 3-1 he crushed it into Right Center yeah James Wood had had had an Ops over 800 and like four home runs and 15 extra base hits in like 150 plate appearances and he hadn't even pulled the five Bowl yet year yeah so when James Wood starts pulling the tolling the ball in the air he's going to be an absolute freak Show um I mean legit like not hyperbolic to say if he figures it out he's 21 years old I think he could be an MVP candidate next year legitimately like he's he's a freak Show um and he's he already is an a820 Ops as a rookie if he figures it out this guy's GNA be a monster like 40 home runs th Ops I think the Nationals are very serious next year um and looking around the AL East you know the Braves a lot of injuries and Max freed we just talked about is going to be a free agent they're going to have to figure out that pitching staff for next year especially Strider you know in his health um the Mets May finally spend their money right the Marlins obviously won't be doing anything but the the Phillies window feels like it's closing a little bit you know this team is all in its 30s early 30s mid-30s and I don't think this Phillies window lasts more than another couple years they they built this team to win now they've been in the mix the past couple years I think it's this year next year the Phillies are still around but after that I think it's the Nationals turn I literally don't know how the Padres lose the NL at this point just to put this out there like don't say that I I after this met series bro watching watching [ __ ] um Jason Adams J Jason Bobby Witt Jr. Adam Jeremiah strata Tanner Scott Rob Suarez it is a nightmare from hell I like I I I like this team is incredible and they don't even have tatis yet lineup though I have to say now that Monty's back in there it's so much deeper and scarier once you put m in there yeah because Lux has actually been hitting Lux has Lux has had like a 950 Ops since the All-Star break he's been great I have him in both fantasy leagues I man he's been a dominant contributor he really has figured it out and he's really broken out obviously you have mookie back in there with Otani and Freeman then adding Muny in there too with Lux hitting now they have like seven hitters where it felt like for a month a month and a half they had like two scary hitters now they have like seven scary guys again so get getting through that lineup is ferocious uh but glas now on the IL Yamamoto apparently rehabbing coming back soon but we'll we'll see how that goes Walker ber looks shot Bobby Miller looks shot um flarity had injury concerns which is why the Yankees didn't trade for him so yeah I think they they have still have significant pitching concerns um the scariest lineup but yeah hopefully the Padre's bullpan can neutralize them in October and don't sleep on the Diamond Backs either the diamond packs are playing great ball too the months he homered in his he homered in the game he came back in his first game the next day too the minute that happened I said uh oh like this yeah it's just obvious easy to say that now hindsight 2020 but like we we Sean's point we're we're stuck in this kind of everlasting cycle of trying to figure it out between five and nine and that that is just that's gone um yeah Dave Roberts doesn't really have to manage just that's the lineup and uh yeah all right yeah they got rid of uh Jason Hayward um Tommy I mean Tommy edman even like taking shots on guys like Tommy adman instead of just like continuing to trot Kik out there they've done everything they can basically to upgrade the roster aside from like the days where they have to play Miguel Rojas but he's been fine you know Miguel roas has a 750 Ops so they they did everything they needed to do I'm sure if he wasn't hitting as well as he is they they would have tried to upgrade him too but yeah I think this daughter's team is probably fine in the divion again you know they're they're up three games in Arizona I think they'll probably hold on um but the pitching is always going to be a question in October it will be every year because they can't keep him healthy uh but I will say copc looks like the scariest relief pitcher in baseball now talk about Aura I'm I'm terrified of Michael copek I think he finally gave up a run the other day for them but he looks frightening as their closer potential closer I would assume future closer all right Charlie why don't you take us home what do you got for your uh yeah last home run pick yeah I will say also just to keep going back I the fact that Otani like is going to screw me out of another out of the Lindor MVP ticket I'm like so upset after this weekend because when Lindor hit the two home runs and then the next day show went 4040 with a grand slam walkoff I was like like you gotta be [ __ ] me like the second time I was like oh man maybe Lindor can make a run at it no um but anyway uh the this this this Sunday night record you know we're doing these night records now as opposed to like 10:00 a.m. Monday or 10: a.m. Tuesday I I the case study here is we we're using these night shows as like group therapy sessions I need it Brandon I need it I'm here for it it's just something I've know 200 to one it was 200 to one I'm now he's down 5 to one 5 to one I think yeah five to one and then know Tony curb stomped me like Lindor and Lindor and Bobby Witter having arguably two of the best shortstop seasons ever and neither one is going to win the MVP speaking of Bobby wit that's my home run pick my last home run pick for tomorrow I like the the tear that he's on right now but I guess the whole season but right now too in particular and then he gets the Guardians who they're either starting Logan Allen or Joey cantio and Allen one of them's going to start after um like a bullpen start for the Guardians in the first game of they have a double header tomorrow yeah in game two I'm gonna I'm assuming that cantio gets the start but if Allen does I don't care which one of them both of them suck and I am gonna bet Bobby Wht against a lefty here Allen has a 56 expected EA and a 46% hard hit rate in the majors went down to the minors he had a two home run for nine in the majors this year not Jen SS and misses like Barrel right up to 11% went down to the minor leagues and in Triple A in six starts has a two home run for so he absolutely can't figure it out this season and it must be an offseason adjustment that needs to be made for him because he's atrocious and then cantio he comes up and they've been using him he has an 11% Barrel rate a near 50% hard hit rate allowed a 6.4 strikeout minus walk rate a seven expected eay and has allowed two home runs in three of his four starts so both of them given up a lot of fly balls a lot of hard hit and barreled balls put into play and what better than to get a guy like Bobby Wht who will probably around three to one in both games but uh I'll probably Target the second one just because the the opener gives a righty on righty to start and then I'd rather have that extra at bat against the Lefty um so I'm gonna Target in the second game but I don't care who's starting cantio or Allen both of them give up a lot of five balls a lot of hard hit balls and Bobby Wht is gonna continue to mash the the baseball but unfortunately he's not GNA win MVP either because Aaron judge will not stop hitting home runs he's plus 145 tomorrow judge by the way it's at a home run absurd okay uh it is it is Allen confirmed for the Guardians for game two uh Nick sandin is opening in game one I'm not sure if cantio is the plan to use behind him or I haven't figured out the Guardians pitching approach for game one yet they haven't really said he was called up he was called up for the 27th man so I'm assuming he'll get bulk unless he pitches after Allen which in that case like I would love that like i' get Allen and kti they may yeah they may just go all out with the bullpen to try to win game one I really have not figured out what they're doing in game one they may just like actually Bullpen the whole game uh they they didn't use their Bullpen is relatively well rested going into tomorrow they use key relievers today but not nobody was like multiple times in multiple days it their both pen should be fine uh so they can if they want in game one because it's a very important series against the Royals they could just try to Bullpen it for all nine innings and then in game two just throw as you said Allen and cantio stack them on top of each other and just get through the game and see what happens but but yeah they they have a lot of flexibility tomorrow with how they can handle it but I I agree with you if you're betting the whip prop I would save it for game two I would not bet it in game one he may just get a bunch of righties yeah yeah I'll take I I'll gladly take Whit I might even lad the total bases with him because he's absolutely automatic right now even sometimes it's only like minus 140 I'll see what it is whenever they announce they have to announce they have to it has a show up on the prop board and then and all that and it's n it's 9:40 on a on a Sunday night so nothing's really up right now mid 80s uh mid 80s temperatures wi pretty neutral as well so good hitting weather uh probably close to the league average Park Guardians Park Progressive Field out to left field is normally you know 6% below League average this year out to right field it's been like 30% above the Major League average but Bobby Wht generally pulling it and they do have that big big wall at Progressive Field right it's tough to pull it over that sometimes so definitely uh definitely have some total bases Charlie in addition to the Home Run prop you don't want to get robbed when a double scrapes off the top of the wall That's yeah that's what that that would be on for how this week has gone for me so yeah we just calmed him down and he he hits liners too he's not a guy who like hits them high no yeah I know cman Kaufman he'd hit if he didn't hitting Kaufman all the time he'd have so many more home runs too yeah what Brenton you good you want my text at 9:30 pm tomorrow night Jesus Bobby Whit just nailed one off the wall no zerillo's getting ahead of that text message he doesn't want it to come I you know I'm just thinking about the wall and I was like oh no this is how he loses the BET let's make sure let's make sure we have some total bases as well the problem is he's gonna hit it so hard it's GNA Ricochet off the wall to the left fielder and he's gonna get held up between first and second n his his speed it's gonna he's gonna get that double if it was if it was like me out there on the bases I'd be a single all right the host and me has to end this little party uh find zerillo and Charlie in the action app should they add anything else tomorrow we'll have another episode coming your way on Tuesday keep your eyes peeled Le your five star ratings and reviews are greatly appreciated wherever you listen to payoff pitch also be sure to check out the Action Network Discord there's a link in the episode description of the podcast to the Discord Channel very important uh if you want to get involved with uh some of our football contributors over in the Discord coming very soon and uh we'll be back on Tuesday payoff pitch is action Network's MLB podcast presented by bmgm best of luck thanks for listening to us in our group therapy session we'll see you again tomorrow