Wake-Up Weather: Tuesday is the pick of the week before an AccuWeather Alert on Wednesday

hi everyone I'm WABC chief meteorologist Lee Goldberg and this is wake up weather on abc7ny and for Weather or Not sponsored by TD Bank well we have an up and down week to tell you about to make the transition from August into September and it turns out the Tuesday is going to be one of the better days certainly of the traditional Monday through Friday work week it's the best bet because it's warm it's not too humid and we can promise a dry day that's a little different story as we head into Wednesday we have an Acu weather alert that day for heat and a storm threat as well and not just in the afternoon they're going to be some showers and Thunders showers that come in toward sunrise on Wednesday as warm and humid air invades the area for a day and then with a cold front approaching late in the day in the evening hours another thread of some strong to isolated severe storms damaging winds and heavy downpour is the biggest threats the extended forecast after we get this front through on Wednesday we get a maritime air mass coming in meaning we've got a wind coming off the Atlantic it's going to keep a cap on temperatures it's also going to keep a fair amount of clouds in here on Thursday and Friday and unfortunately that unsettle weather will bleed into at least the start of the holiday weekend but the deeper we get into the weekend the better the weather will become in terms of the due points well the humidity is on its way up it's really pretty bearable on Tuesday not talking about oppressive air low in mid 80s the D points in the low 60s but those D points spiked in near 70 on Wednesday so there's pretty high heat in the 90s there's high humidity there's a front approaching so we've got all the ingredients for some thunder showers around again bookend storms to begin and end the day and then those due points take a nice dip into the comfy 50s both Thursday and Friday but it'll also feature a fair amount of clouds limited sunshine have a coolish feel and it might be a couple of showers around and then we get those D points to more seasonable levels closer to 60 or a little bit above Saturday into the rest of the holiday weekend but the air looks pretty dry for Sunday and into labor day as well one thing on your Tuesday day to keep in mind especially in areas that get a few Thunders showers Monday night into Tuesday or at least Monday night is that we'll have some patchy fog around uh it's more likely as we go through parts of Northern New Jersey and in the Hudson Valley remember the nights are getting longer they've got some humidity and they probably could be some patchy fog on parts of Long Island and down the Jersey Shore as well the good news is it's very short liveed but it is timed with your morning commute and by the tail end of that morning commute visibility should improve pretty rapidly overall in the future cast what a nice start to the day on Tuesday you've got some upper 50s in our coolest spots in northwest New Jersey and into the Catskills most of our suburbs should be in the low to mid-60s and it'll be in the upper 60s in New York City throughout the day it should be a partly to mostly sunny day a few clouds may form along the seab breeze front in the afternoon we're in the low and mid 80s and again the humidity is basically on the moderate side if you have Tuesday evening plans you're fine we're in good shape we have mainly clear AP partly cloudy skies in fact the first cloudiness will probably start getting into our western suburbs as we get into the middle part of the evening on Tuesday now that's the Leading Edge of higher humidity and a warmfront that's coming in so even toward let's say the 10:00 hour there may be a Thunders shower or at least a shower that gets into the Poconos and Catskills and those showers could be more widespread in the pre-dawn hours to around sunrise on Wednesday so there might be a strong Thunder shower at least a few downpours to greet the Wednesday morning commute with this warmfront lifting to our North the best chances for any heavier downpours would be in the Hudson Valley Northern New Jersey but a shower could certainly slide across New York City and Connecticut in the North Shore of the island as well so that will start with some cloud cover on Wednesday so it might be hazy a little Sunny break or two by the time we get to late morning and you know we're talking about that day being a hot day well it might be more of an afternoon surge of heat as that Sunshine comes out and temperatures start to spike so we can get to the upper 80s and lower 90s and then a cold front starts approaching now we'll have to see if the storms in the morning hours a little beefier where we have some heavy thunder showers the atmosphere has to reload and get its energy back together and maybe those afternoon or the morning storms begin to take a little starch out of the atmosphere I think we'll be able to reload a little bit if you're watching this the future cast may be underdoing some of the showers and storms that could develop in the afternoon hours which would most likely be to the North and then as we go into the evening hours maybe get down to the coastal plane so the storm prediction Center has us in a level two severe risk on Wednesday for damaging winds some hail and some downpours as well so there will be some scattered heavy thunderstorms borderline severe as we go through Wednesday again there's a chance to the north in the early morning hours and then in the afternoon is when the better chance of some severe storms would be but they'll probably be widely scattered so that's when the peak heat is with us on Wednesday out ahead of this front that front settles through high pressure is coming through Eastern Canada and our wind is out of the North but that frontal boundary is still probably sitting from about Harrisburg to Cap May and into the Del Marva so we'll still have a fair amount of clouds around there might be a stray shower and again cool temperatures I think we're talking limited Sunshine that day high pressure takes a position over let's say Nova Scotia on Friday we're still in more of an easterly northeasterly wind there'll probably be a few more breaks around but also a stray shower and continued cool we're only in the mid upper 70s that day then a cold front starts pushing toward us from the west and also an area of low pressure that may be toward let's say Philly or Baltimore on Saturday that's just kind of a messy looking weather map so we're looking at showers and some thunder showers at anytime during the day on Saturday a lot of clouds probably humid day temperatures getting probably in the upper 70s at best so Saturday probably looks like the worst of the three days of the holiday weekend and after that that front should push offshore and give us some drying maybe there's some leftover cloudiness on Sunday but we should see at least some increasing Sunshine lowering humidity and the temperature should get back into the 80s that day when we look at our overall steering winds what's happening is we've got an upper level area of low pressure as we go through Tuesday that's again sitting over the Canadian maritimes and all this heat that's building off to the West so that clash between that cool air mass to our north and east and the heat trying to get in here from the South and West is what's going to Bubble Up our storm threat on Wednesday again that could be a bookend threat but by the time we get into Thursday and Friday we've got that Marine air mass coming in and in fact a simple look at the steering winds in the jet stream and you might think that we've got a nice Ridge in the East that we're going to start heating up but it's the surface flow that's the problem off the Atlantic keeping us rather cool so now we need a kicker that's going to change this weather pattern for the holiday weekend that's not going to arrive until that front on Saturday you can see this trough or dip in the jet string coming in so that will send that front offshore it'll switch our winds around at the surface we dry out Sunday will be our improving day we should do pretty well on Labor Day as well little concerned about some high clouds in advance of the next system but overall Sunday and Labor Day look dry seasonably warm certainly not hot but Pleasant weather two out of three ain't bad for the holiday weekend then it looks like we're getting into a pronounced Northwest flow out of Canada and our weather looks quite cool as we go into the middle part of next week so that first week of September a lot of kids that haven't gone back to school wait until after Labor Day they go back and the classrooms won't be too hot which is great news there the climate Prediction Center as you look at the trend beyond the 7 days for below normal temperatures a really strong signal in the Great Lakes and in the Northeast above normal temperatures in the west and in the Southeast but if you look at our area it's near to below normal here as we go through the first week of September and just looking at the 10-day Trend one little Spike of Summer on Wednesday into the 70s into the start of the weekend we do well Sunday and Labor Day and well below average only in the mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday of next week in terms of precipitation it looks like an above normal pattern as we go into the first week of September as well rain chances in the short term we have our Wednesday threat Thursday and Friday there's just some passing showers around each day it's about a 20 30% shot Saturday is our best chance for seeing seeing showers and storms and then that rain threat tails off nicely into Sunday and into labor day checking out the tropics boy the Pacific has been unbelievably busy while the Atlantic has been in hyber so of course we had H which gave up to 20 in of rain on the big island uh you have Gilma which is moving off to the west and then you have Hector as well so those are all lining up the good news is the next two storms in line the g&h storm they kind of fizzle before they approach the Hawaiian Islands so going over to more depression bringing some rain showers but nothing like H you go to the Atlantic and there are still some storms here along the main development region and waves coming off the African Coast but whether it's sheer in the Atlantic or dust or actually a little dropping of some of the Tropical Atlantic temperatures as of late development has been slow to happen but one thing we'll be watching is there are multiple waves coming off the African coast and I think the next date that we want to start looking at is around the 1st of September so leading in the Labor Day and there are very few Labor Days where you don't have some ducks on the pond or some storms on the Atlantic so there may be a tropical system that's approaching the leeward Islands as we go into next Tuesday the 3rd and then into the Caribbean so we'll see how that plays out remember that pattern of very cool temperatures next week in the Northeast means that we've got nice westerlies coming in and nice protection here in the Northeast from many tropical systems so it would favor any tropical systems taking more of a Southern route as we go into next week we'll watch it very closely speaking of the waters on Tuesday it's a Northeast wind early fairly light going to Southeast waves mostly 1 to 2 feet couple of three Footers water temperatures around 70 and the rip cut risk is low turns out it's a really nice Beach day and really probably the best of the rest of the week even though Wednesday is hot and you get out there on the beach we just have to watch out for that storm threat especially in the afternoon hours Tuesday weather Wellness air quality is moderate the pawn count will be high Ragweed season in full year and the UV index will be at a seven maybe even closer to an eight 7 in the morning on your Tuesday it's 69° there are partly cloudy skies and watch out for that patchy fog early that will lift as we go through the middle of the morning yielding to a partly to mostly sunny day nice and warm and not too humid 86 is our high forecast and again the humidity on moderate levels a North Northeast wind going to South during the afternoon hours tomorrow night down to 72 it is clear and nice for your evening plans but then clouds will tend to increase there could be a late night shower or Thunders shower a better chance north of New York City and acate weather alert on Wednesday it's steam heat and humidity feels like upper 90s to around 100 remember I have it listed in afternoon thunderstorm those are the ones that likely could be severe after the daytime heating but there also could be a a heavy Thunders shower in the morning hours as the Leading Edge of that very sticky air comes in on Thursday and Friday clouds dominate limited Sunshine only in the 70s and a passing shower showers and thunderstorms a couple of these could be Heavy we may very well need an Acu weather alert on Saturday for a heavier Thunder shower but that clears us out for the last two-thirds of the holiday weekend maybe there are some lingering clouds we have to get rid of on Sunday some of the newer information would suggest we doing pretty well first thing on Sunday but call it clouds giving way to Sun nice and warm lowering humidity and Labor Day looks good just concerned about a little high cloudiness there that's your ACU weather forecast you can always get your forecast on abc7ny and thanks for listening to weather or not we'll see you next time rain or shine