Mysterious blue dots are popping up on lawns across key battleground state. Here’s what they mean

Given all the focus on Pennsylvania by candidates, campaign reporters, and certainly our panel members tonight, there's also the possibility that the road to the white House runs through deep red Nebraska. That's because Nebraska divides outfits, electoral votes between its deep red areas and one that's not only up for grabs, but could also break a potential Electoral College tie. Jeff Zeleny explains. These blue dots are popping up on lawns across Omaha, signs of a campaign. We're not only every vote counts, but were every electoral vote is critical. We debated back and forth and we went for it and said, well, I think the mystery is kind of cool. And it turned out to be a huge win because the starting conversation exactly. We had no idea the conversation. And then and that's the important part, because as soon as you start the conversation, you have a full conversation. Ruth Hebner Brown and her husband Jason, are suddenly having more conversations about the blue dot, symbolizing a democratic island in a sea of Nebraska red and the state's unique way of dividing elected votes. It's plausible that we could have a tie, and that whole notion of oh, my vote doesn't matter kind of gets really tossed out the window because this could be it. This could be the deciding factor for all of the pathways for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to reach the white House. The race for 270 electoral votes could come down to Nebraska's sprawling second district. And here's why. If Harris carries the three blue wall battleground states and Trump wins the swing states across the Sunbelt, a single electoral vote surrounding Omaha could keep the race from becoming a 269 269 tie decided by the House of Representatives. Well, hello, Nebraska. A not so secret weapon for Democrats could be Tim Walz, who was born and raised here before moving two states away to Minnesota. Tony Vargas believes the Harris Walz ticket will also help Democrats win control of Congress, starting with his race here, which is among the country's most competitive. We have suburban, we have rural, we have urban, we have all different walks of life, you know, all different races, ethnicities, socioeconomic. But really, this is a truly independent place. Republican Congressman Don bacon has thrived and survived politically because of that independent streak of the district Trump won here in 2016 but lost in 2020. Bacon said Trump runs the risk of losing again if he doesn't focus on inflation and immigration. When you talk about Di race, coming up with nicknames that doesn't play well in this district, they want to talk about the issues. This is an issue district. For months, Trump and his allies have sought to change Nebraska's election law and award all electoral votes to the statewide winner rather than by congressional district, a process shared only by Maine. You better get me on the hard. You understand that. For now, Republicans are working to defeat Harris here in a district that extends through Omaha's western suburbs to rural towns like Wahoo, where Stephen and Sonya Pete's are ready for change. I would like just to see, you know, some hope. I don't see it now, which of those candidates do you think, gets the closest to bringing you hope? I would say Trump. Absolutely. Trump. I have a feeling that he is a person who sticks to his word. He means what he says. They question what Harris stands for and are not sold on walls, no matter where he grew up. Back in the Dundee neighborhood of Omaha, the blue dots are in such high demand Jason Brown ran out of spray paint. Orders are stacking up, he said, and not only from Democrats, but from independents who may decide the election. Well, it doesn't mean, oh my God, I become a Democrat. no. You're voting for what you feel is right for the future. So in short, the blue wall needs the blue dot right here in Omaha. That's how the math works. Out, of course, both sides. The Harris campaign and the Trump campaign have many paths to victory. But for all the talk about Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin, those are the most likely paths. But again, that is one vote short of the 270 needed. That's why so much money, time and attention is being spent right here in Nebraska on that blue dot. Anderson. Nine weeks from tonight on election night. If our eyes are on Nebraska, we'll know this race is incredibly still tight. And that would be incredible. Just only thank you. John King has a closer look at this. John, how could the election play out in Nebraska? Incredibles two. Right word. Mythical is another word that gets used. Just look, let's put up Anderson. We have some technical issues here, so I can't do this with my hands tonight. But if you look at the map right there, that's what Jeff was just talking about. If Kamala Harris wins the blue wall states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin wins all the other states that we view as likely or solid. Democrat Donald Trump wins the Sunbelt states. In that scenario. You see Georgia, you see Arizona, and you see even Nevada, right? Then if if Nebraska is all red, you see that little white in the top corner there. That's that congressional district Nebraska two if Donald Trump won that and the map played out that year at 269 269, it gets thrown to the House of Representatives. We talk about this every four years. We've never had to deal with it. But in a close race like this, it's one of those possibilities. You have to study for it. It's why Jeff Zeleny gets a free stake in Omaha. We talked about the reporting earlier by the Trump campaign in New Hampshire. How much does New Hampshire matter? well, New Hampshire matters less now. Back. Remember, after the debate, the Trump campaign thought a lot more states were going to be in play of Joe Biden state as the candidate and so they were looking at making a run at New Hampshire. They were looking at make a run at Virginia. They thought New Mexico might be in play. Democrats were saying even Colorado might come back into play. It was the oh my God moment for the Democrats. But the truth is, this volunteer got told you're no longer welcome for speaking the truth because he told the truth. He's no longer welcome in the Trump campaign because they're not spending any money on television. They're. Yes, Donald Trump does have a hard core group of supporters in New Hampshire who work very hard, and they are very passionate. But New Hampshire has trended away. Hillary Clinton won it narrowly. Biden won it by more. Here's here's how you can tell. Is Donald Trump spending any money in the Boston TV markets to influence New Hampshire? The answer is no. We'll see if he does, I doubt it. So the election is now nine weeks away. What do you personally watching for nine weeks away from tonight? We count votes. You ready. Get your espresso machines ready everybody. So let's look at some different dynamics. One is where is Harris today compared to Biden. Let's look at the gender gap. Let's look among women voters. Female voters look right there Harris with a 13 point advantage over Trump right now. That's one poll the ABC Ipsos poll last week. Look at 2020. That's Joe Biden on the ballot. He had a slightly bigger advantage. If you're in the Harris campaign, you want to get to where that Biden number was. If you look to where Harris is right now, she's exactly the same as Hillary Clinton was. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College. So if you're Kamala Harris, you're looking at that number. You're saying you've made improvement, but you want to get to where Biden was in 2020. So that is a source of she's ahead. But she needs more there. And let's flip it now and look at male voters. This is where she's actually in a somewhat better shape. If you look at the numbers among male voters here, she's at 46%. Again, just one poll. So don't over invest in this. But that's pretty close to a five point split Trump advantage among men. Look at Biden in 2020 and look at Hillary Clinton even worse in 2016. So on gender issues, Harris is in good shape. She'd like to be in stronger shape with female voters