FIRST ALERT: Holiday weekend forecast & update in the tropics (08/31/24)

e good evening south Mississippi meteorologist Taylor Grim here I know we haven't had an early evening newscast tonight because of college football so uh if you want an update on the weather I've got one for you right here we're going to dive in into what to expect the rest of our holiday or Labor Day weekend and also uh giving a little bit of an update on what's going on in the tropics now today definitely was a rainy day not all bad though we did need the rain around the area and we certainly have seen plenty of it over the past 48 Hours some spots according to radar estimates picked up roughly two to three inches of rainfall some of those spots a little bit closer to the coast and up into Pearl River County it looks like George County hasn't seen as much rain it seems like over the past few days but many of us especially this morning got a good soaking of rain wasn't good for outdoor plans but was a nice excuse to maybe sleep in today and of course we did need some of that rainfall around here so taking taking a look at our month-to dat rainfall in gulport after today looks like it's a little bit less than seven Ines we hit 6.81 in normal month-to dat rainfall for the end of August is about 6 and a half inches and we are running now a little bit of a surplus for the month and also for the year now I will say specifically in Gulfport we did see some heavier rainfall uh fairly isolated at times earlier in the month so by no means has ever everyone been getting a surplus of rain this month and one great example of that is Moss Point now so far after today's rainfall they've picked up a little bit under 2 and a half inches of rain normal is actually about 7.8 to 7.9 so still running a deficit for the month of August however for the year we do have a little bit of a surplus but because we're still behind on rainfall over the past four weeks or so drought conditions May persist a little bit more but we do have more rainfall in the forecast not only tomorrow but also by the middle to end of this upcoming week and for tonight maybe a few little showers linger here or there this evening our rain chances will be going back up just before the sunrise tomorrow and if you live along the coast you have a better chance of seeing a few showers and thunderstorms waking up on Sunday it's not a guarantee that everyone's going to be seeing rain on Sunday but there's a decent chance by Labor Day itself we are looking at drier weather returning as of right now the time of this 7:44 7:45 not a lot of rain in the area we are left with just a few very light showers up into George County Northern Jackson County much different than where we were just about 12 hours ago with widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning but we do expect to see a few more showers and thunderstorms tomorrow in the morning and it's all thanks to a broad area of low pressure right along the Gulf Coast this is hanging around parts of Texas Lake Charles Louisiana and there is a small chance this could become a tropical depression maybe even a tropical storm over the next several days the overall chance of that is low and regardless of development heavy rainfall along parts of the Gulf Coast is still going to be the main impact especially in parts of Texas and Louisiana but for us this system is still going to be Meandering around a little bit by the middle to end of the upcoming week and that's going to keep our rain chances in the forecast so this is a look at our rainfall forecast over the next four to five days and we can see a kind of that Bullseye right over the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico where some areas in Texas coastal Louisiana could be picking up over four inches of rain for us over the next five days generally looking at about 1 to three inches the closer you are to the coast the higher chance you have of seeing some heavier rainfall especially by Wednesday and Thursday of this upcoming week take these suers with a little bit of a grain of salt but overall decent chances for rain are in the forecast over the next I would say four to five days now tomorrow in the morning that's going to be our best chance of seeing some showers and storms I don't expect the coverage of rainfall tomorrow to be as widespread as what we had earlier today still could see some heavy downpours here or there that may lead to some localized flood but they have not issued or reissued a flood watch tomorrow because the coverage of rainfall just doesn't look to be as widespread on Sunday and by the end of Sunday looks like things may be winding down a little bit more that same area of low pressure I was talking about in the Gulf that starts to move a little bit farther from us to the west by Monday for Labor Day so while there still is a chance for a couple of showers really looks like most of Labor day is going to be dry on the flip side that means it's going to be hotter with temperatures back into the low to mid90s you may have noticed today it felt much cooler outside with the rain and the cloud cover many of us only warmed up into the low 80s Monday we're going to be back into that summertime heat and of course it's going to be humid but if we get more rainfall by the middle to end of the week I'll show you shortly that's going to impact our temperatures at this time rain chances are expected to go back up by Tuesday and especially by Wednesday I've bumped up our chances a little bit higher on Wednesday to about 60% don't be surprised if those rain chances continue to increase if we continue to see uh model Trends showing more of that tropical moisture moving in from the Gulf of Mexico and we could even possibly see more rainfall by Thursday and Friday of this upcoming week so if you need more rain there's a good chance you're going to get it at least over the next week and with more raining cloud cover in the forecast that's going to keep our temperatures down a little bit more especially Wednesday and Thursday for now I have high temperatures peing in the mid 80s that could be a stretch if we see rain throughout the day on Wednesday and Thursday Monday and Tuesday though it is going to be hot I do expect to see a little bit more Sunshine even with the chance of rain we'll see more breaks in the cloud cover it looks like and that will warm us up into the low 90s but beyond that it's not going to be as hot it looks like throughout the first week of September so still humid a little cooler I think we'll take anything that we can get other than the rainfall forecast locally we have a lot to talk about in the tropics two areas that we're watching at this time now earlier today you may have remembered that we had a tropical wave moving just off the coast of Africa that had a chance of development National Hurricane Center no longer highlighting that that's why I'm not showing you that conditions just don't look favorable at this time for that to develop so we have that area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that we're watching right off the coast of Texas low chance of development that looks to be more of a rain maker than anything then we're watching a tropical wave that's going to be approaching the Lesser and Tilles over the next few days currently it's in the central Atlantic it is expected to move into the Caribbean and it has a decent chance of development once it moves into the Caribbean so zooming here a little bit we can see uh some clouds some thunderstorms on satellite associated with that tropical wave at this time it's given a medium chance to develop and the reason why we're watching this one a little bit more is because we have had several forecast models hent that this could move into the Gulf of Mexico next weekend and maybe even the following Monday or Tuesday that being said we have plenty of time to watch this and because it doesn't have a center of circulation models are still going to be all over the place as far as how intense it could get and where exactly it's going to go but as it moves into the Caribbean conditions are looking a little more favorable for tropical development and one thing that I've noticed today is that there's not much wind shear over the Caribbean tropical systems need low wind shear in order to organize themselves better and so it looks like as it moves into the Caribbean that lack of wind shear could help it develop of course sea surface temperatures well into the 80s at this time of the year so we do see some of those ingredients coming together for this a tropical wave to become a little bit more organized I do want to show some forecast models but take these with a huge grain of salt because we don't have a center yet forecast models and different runs are going to be all over the place but I'm showing this to show you that they do hint that something could move into the Gulf by next weekend and the following Monday or Tuesday so this is a European model keeps it fairly disorganized this latest run does and then it does move into the southern Gulf by the end of next weekend and that following Monday the latest run of the GFS model a bit more aggressive with development and it does also show it maybe moving into the southern Gulf by the end of next weekend and also that following Monday but like I said take these exact rounds with a big grain of salt they are going to be all over the place the next few days we have plenty of time to watch this but now that we are getting into the heart or peak of hurricane season now is a good time to review your hurricane plan make sure you have enough supplies in your kit just in case we do see something else a spin up in the Gulf it's always best to be prepared ahead of it uh rather than waiting until the last minute so to wrap up what we're watching in the tropics really too early to predict many details with this tropical wave can we have plenty of time to monitor it may not even be until the end of this upcoming week that something starts to approach the Gulf of Mexico uh even then it may not even develop into anything so again just a lot of unknowns at this time I know I've been seeing a lot of talk on Facebook Twitter uh maybe some other weather blogs that you keep up with all in all it's just really too early to know many details but again that being said we are entering the peak of hurricane season so regardless of if it develops or not now is still a really good time to go over your hurricane preparedness plan uh maybe your evacuation routes if you have to evacuate or if you live in a flood zone and also just keep check on your supply kit at this point once we get into the end of September and October we typically have more tropical activity that we're going to be tracking out in the Atlantic Caribbean or possibly even the Gulf of Mexico so still a ways to go before the end of hurricane season but at this time no immediate threats I know we have that area of low pressure uh that's in the Gulf right now that's really going to be more of a rain maker than anything and that's why our rain chances are going to be higher by Wednesday and Thursday this system is still going to be hanging around the Gulf Coast it looks like at that point but if you need to get anything done outside Monday is going to be your best bet it is going to be hotter on Labor Day temperatures back into the low 90s likely going to be in the 90s Again by Tuesday but if you have to maybe do some yard work outside uh do something around the house Monday is going to be your best bet as far as avoiding any rain wouldn't be surprised if we have to increase his rain chances by Thursday and Friday of this upcoming week and that's also the reason why our temperatures are a little bit lower at that point in the mid 80s so at least it's not going to be as hot it looks like at this time by the middle to end of the week that being said we will continue to keep an eye on the tropics over the next several days uh thanks for joining me this evening we will have a newscast hopefully beginning at 10 o'clock tonight depends on how long some of those college football games go but we will be having a broadcast tonight uh later this evening at 10:00 I will have the latest forecast then another update on the tropics so for now I hope everyone enjoys the rest of your Saturday evening and hopefully we'll see you at 10