[Music] [Music] [Music] all right folks we got to do this one all over again which I mean it's good and bad it's fun to do these Steals and bus episode welcome to old man squad fantasy basketball I am Dan besas you can find me on social media at Dan bpis you can also follow Oldman squad on social that's the uh Network feed and it'll follow you back it'll follow you back so you'll get a free follow out of it at the very least please do like hit the like button it's big deal on YouTube gets us into that you know algorithm recommended stuff subscribe if you like what we've been doing on any channel no matter how you're taking in the content and if you have 45 seconds to hit that five star review button on Apple I know that takes a little bit longer Spotify if you've listened to an episode it takes all of about six seconds to do it that would really help us as well quick little preface before we get into it um we have indeed done a show like this before we got through I think the first four or five rounds and then Yahoo changed the the board about 6 hours later oh in the moment I was like well I could pull this episode down but it was still entertaining and also you could sort of trace the thread a bit of the players we talked about a week ago pre and post Yahoo Shuffle so the names will be different on today's episode A lot of them there might be a couple of repeats guys that either didn't move that much or be went from steel to bust if they mov too far or something like that but overall we're going to be looking at guys that I think are values in each round and we'll go for about 35ish minutes something like that and see how far we get so let's go ahead and Dive Right In we'll start in the first round not surprisingly and actually because of Yahoo's board Shuffle the first round got better they've done a better job of it kudos to you Yahoo you got a lot of these players closer to where they should be and for that reason there is only one in my opinion value play in the first round right now yes we all want to have wemi we all want to have joic it's great to get a top two pick and Luca and sha will be fine and you know guys like halberton will be will probably underperform by some amount but they're probably still going to be safe and embiid is going to be a per game Monster but he's very unsafe and Giannis is your punt guy if we eliminate and what I'm trying to do on this show as I pull up Anthony Davis's face because he's going to be the guy we talk about what I'm trying to do on this show is to highlight the guys that I think have a chance to beat their pre- rank both on a per game and a totals basis without something weird happening and so in the first round that's why my only steal is Anthony Davis ad is a terrific per game guy he showed basically that last season with a reasonable offseason to get himself rested coming into the year at good you know in good shape and the team frankly needing him to play because they were quite bad without him ad was number four on a per game basis he played in 76 out of 82 ball games which made him number three by totals and he opened up as the number seven guy on the Yahoo board and dropped two slots and that's what I love about this recent Redo for Anthony Davis he fell a little bit deeper such that and those that are watching with us you can see the other names around him embiid moved in front of ad as did well Anthony Davis was seven he and embiid flip-flopped they basically just traded places with Jason Tatum staying where he was at number eight so embiid moving up the board took the value out of embiid and put it on Anthony Davis who is probably a little bit less of an injury risk than MB I know that ad had those two and a half three years that were really rough after the bubble run but I don't think his body ever really fully recovered from that bubble run that was crazy because they won the title and then the season started a month and a half after that it was nuts there was no there was literally no time at all for these guys to get themselves back in working working order and so a guy like ad who's very very tall and you know a lot of legs and flies through the air there needs to be that recovery time and now he finally had it and he had a really good year but again the guys around him like Kevin Durant at number 10 that's fine you know embiid you could call him a steel because he's going to beat the seven pre- rank on a per game basis but also you know that requires me planting my flag in om beat is definitely going to play 64 games or more which I I really don't I don't know and I don't think that's the case so to in my eyes it's kind of impossible to call any of these other guys steals where they're going in this first 12 and The Only Name that I would consider calling a bust is actually Tyrese halberton who I think has a uh is going to have a really tough road to get to number five on a per game basis I think he's going to be around number 10 11 12 per game but if he's healthy he gets up near number five and again drafting someone in the middle of the first round who finishes towards the back end of the first round is not a bust that's a near miss and a near Miss doesn't really kill your fantasy team because the other guys you're choosing around halberton are probably all gonna finish pretty close to halberton too and Trey Young I have a tough time and same with Giannis calling a bust because if you're drafting those guys you're doing it with a specific build in mind Giannis you're likely punting free throws Trey young you're likely punting field goal now if you're shooting for full straight nine cat like a nine cat Roto League then your honorable mentions in this first round on the bust side are Giannis because he basically has no chance to be a first rounder when you're trying to win free throws he's an honorable mentioned bust and Trey young is is an honorable mention bust because he pretty much has no chance to be a first-rounder if you're not punting one of his worst two categories also but again if you're drafting those guys you're likely doing it to build around what they're good and bad at it's typically more a head-to-head type of thing and that's I mean honestly why in the first round we kind of need to have a Steels bust show that's for Roto and one for head-to-head so quickly to recap the first round your only steel for all formats in my eyes right now at least before the board shuffles again in two weeks is Anthony Davis there are no busts in all formats there are a couple of busts if you're going nine cat Roto and it's Giannis and it's Trey young but that's again only if you're going nine cat Roto second round there's a little bit more to talk about I got two Steals and two busts in the second round we'll start with a steel and that is still a repeat offender James Harden at number 18 I love James Harden because last year in nine CAD he was number 26 as the third fiddle he took 11 and a half shots a game and only five free throws he averaged 16 and a half points and eight and a half assists with good steals blocks and rebound numbers good threes numbers High free throw percent Just Jack all this stuff up Harden going back on you know playing time and usage steroids this coming year he's going to get a lot of what Paul George leaves behind think about what Harden would have been like this last year if he was getting 17 shots and four free I mean he'll take more free throws than Paul George because that's just how his game handles but Harden 11 and a half shots five free throws eight and a half assists give him the Paul George level of usage maybe even a tiny bit more because again there's only two guys now to sort of split it with to Star level players and Harden's going to jump up the board so basically the end of the second round is the floor for James Harden right now and I don't think it's that crazy to think that he goes back to doing kind of what he did in his last year in Philly which was not this most recent season but the one before that where he took 14 and a half shots per game and had almost 11 assists a day that number is probably not that high because he won't have Maxi an upand cominging Tyrese Maxi and an established Joel emid near him but I I could definitely see assist going up to 10 instead instead of 11 points should jump quite a bit from 16 and a half I would think that he's back up around 20 and that year in in Philly James Harden was amazing the three and a half turnover is the only thing that was sagging him a little bit but he was terrific Big Time fantasy lines from Harden that year he was number 17 per game he only played in 58 ball games that was a weird season everybody kind of took the the game played Situation off like the whole first second round was in the 60s it was weird at any event I'm not that worried about health with harden when he wants to play he typically plays he was already getting mad in Philly he was about ready to ask out so you could weigh that in on everything so you know 17th for Harden feels very doable very doable especially when you consider the fact that a couple of guys that were in front of him that year like jiren Jackson probably doesn't belong ahead of him Jimmy Butler probably not ahead of him anymore Steph unfortunately probably not ahead of him per game these days porzingis isn't going to play the first half of the Season like there's four guys that might just clear out and make Harden number 12 13 14 something like that this coming season so I love James Harden I think he's a good steal in the second round and my other one is still Damen lard who again if you want a deeper analysis on this you can go to the last episode where we talked about the second round but he actually moved down two slots from 21 to 23 which is delightful cuz Dame uh this past season was number 25 uh again porzingis is just gone for the first half of the Year dearen Fox added Demar de rozan next to him Maxi added Paul George I'm just listing players that were in front of Dame this year where basically he doesn't have to do anything different and he'll move up three slots that gets him to 22 so already now he's one ahead of his Mark and that was shooting 42. 4% from the field which again like we don't know that it's going to come up but that's basically a low water mark for Dame so odds are if it goes anywhere it goes up if it doesn't and stays the same then you get him pretty close to his floor I love drafting Superstar level players at their floor and that's what you can do with both Harden I think and Dame in the second round and both these guys showed nice durability last year so I don't know that way you know we're coming into this season with any sort of concerns around them and people like oh the Clippers they're going to tank after they fall out they're going to be fighting for a playin spot the whole damn season I think that team's in a perfect spot to have their guys play down the stretch before we do the bus in the second round let's take a very brief stoppage for our first commercial break second round busts two repeat offenders on this one so we'll keep it somewhat brief Kyrie Irving at 14 he moved the right way to the to Kyrie's credit he went from 13 to 14 but this just isn't late enough and this is this is a math equation first of all Kyrie played 58 games again last year he pretty much hasn't cracked you know 75 to 80% games played since like the Cavaliers days and I know there's been an assortment of reasons for it but assortment or not he doesn't play a full season and you're like well Dan why didn't you clown on Joel embiid in the first round well the difference there is that embiid you're able to get sometimes still at 78 n somewhere in that neck of the woods and you could be getting the number one player in fantasy so for embiid if he plays 62 games this year he easily beats his ADP Kyrie is going to need to get farther than 62 games because you're draft him at 14 and he's probably going to be like number nine or 10 per game that just isn't a big enough jump and I know what you're saying I know what you're thinking you're thinking Dan the jump for ID from 8 to one is seven slots and the jump for Kyrie from 14 to 10 is four slots why is that so different well because the guys at the top of the board are separated by larger chunks even once you get to the second round the players are a lot closer together in value than the top of the first round so embiid in 62 is games beats his ADP in two 62 games Kyrie doesn't Kyrie was number 27 last year in 58 games you can do the math a little bit 62 games would get him probably to the early 20s meaning he still needs to cover another six seven eight slots so you're looking at Irving probably getting to about 67 66 67 games to beat his ADP uh 65 66 might get it done that's tough there's no room for gravy because he ain't getting better than that you're not getting 68 out of Irving this year I don't think my other bust in the second round is not an injury related one and that's Jaylen Brunson who's just going too early and I know he had an incredible season last year I would never downplay that and we just did a Nicks review episode over the weekend uh so if you want you know like the 8 Minute version of what I'm about to say in 90 seconds Brunson took 21 shots a game last year when Randall was healthy he was at 18 shots per game now they have Randall healthy ogan and noobi starting the Year healthy and they brought in male Bridges there's just no reason at all that Brunson should have to do as much as he did last year 21 shots got him on a per game Mark very close to where he's being drafted right now which again is at where is he now 21 Yeah so basically right on the mark Mar by totals he was very good he was number 16 by totals he played in 77 games last year uh but we're talking about a guy that was number 29 while taking 21 and a half shots per ball game I don't think that number's going up if anything that number is going down and so Brunson to me if the Knicks are even reasonably healthy this year 25 is the absolute ceiling I don't like drafting players in the second round that are above or near their ceiling and that's what you'd have to do with Brun right now there is an outside shot that he ends up as even money but I don't think there's almost any chance per game that he comes close to beating this and then by totals you're going to need Max Health to get there again third round uh is relatively quiet in terms of steals and busts I have a very risky steel and I have a very points leagy bust wait a minute I skipped over a name nope not a points leagy bust that's the fourth round sorry guys I got ahead of myself uh and they are right next to each other in the middle of the third round the steel is still kaai Leonard who is much less of a steel because he was ranked 45th and as he was the fourth round steel of the century on the last Yahoo board he's now a third round mediumsized steel because and you guys know this my hot take this year is that Kawhi Leonard is a top four per game guy it's not that nuts he was number six this past season behind embiid Shay joic ad and Luca and I think there's a decent chance that he passes two of those players although Victor wanyama is going to come storming in uh top four is going to be tough top five would be a much easier thing to say about kawhai but I needed to make it a h hot ti so we went top four uh I think kawh Leonard and Victor wanyama each pass Shay and Luca in this coming board and maybe Anthony Davis who by the way I still like a lot even if I think a couple people pass him I just think Kawai is going to go from 17 shots and four free throws to more like 19 or 20 shots and five free throws and if you just power boost his efficiency he's an absolute Goliath because right now he was about 0.1 assists away from being a positive fantasy player in all nine categories it's possible I would nay probable that turnovers becomes a small negative because he's not going to be at 1.8 having to do more but I don't care and we talked about this over the weekend when the ball is in your hands there are six categories at play six out of the nine the three that aren't are rebound Steals and blocks those are the three things that are not impacted by you holding the basketball points threes assists both percentages and turnovers are impacted by a player holding the basketball Kawai has great percentages both both of them very very good so not only is he a boost in points threes and assists if he's holding the ball more he gets another big positive boost in the other two so every little bit of usage for Kawai is a large jump forward and for turnovers a very small jump back so that's why I think Kawai could actually be number four this year I don't think it's totally insane uh I know the health stuff is a mess and if we get into training camp and he's not playing I reserve the right to retract but he's a situation that's even more intense like embiid I thought was close to like kind of being scales of Justice equal on risk versus reward Kawai to me still the reward is higher than the risk because a guy that's being drafted in the 30 range that could be top four per game like here's the thing a good example of this is joeel embiid last year he played in 39 games as the number one player in Fantasy by totals in 39 games he missed 43 games he was still a fifth rounder by totals so we're talking about Kawhi Leonard really only needing to get into the 50s in games played to break through that 30 barrier he was able to break through the 45 barrier in the 40s in games played this coming year so 30s it's going to take a little bit more but if you think Kawai has any chance of approaching 60 games he blasts through this if he gets into the mid 60s he's probably a first rounder totals not per game totals that's why I'm still in favor of doing it and dejonte Murray went down the board as he should but he didn't go far enough he fell from 24 to 29 he's still one of my possible busts here instead of a late second round bust he's now a mid third round bust the thing with dejonte is he has a shot to beat this by totals which is what he did last year he was number 38 on a per game basis last season as the number two guy in Atlanta he was number 23 by totals but that took him playing 78 out of 82 ball games okay if you want him to beat this number by totals he's got a decent shot to get there but he goes to a place where the usage vacuum is harder to fill because with Atlanta it was like okay well Trey young can't play every minute of ball game and then whenever he's off the floor Deonte you just get to go totally crazy and even when they're on the floor together you're going to get to do some stuff with the Pelicans there's a lot of guys there's Zion who's going to be the max usage dude then there's Ingram there's McCollum who's still going to be doing stuff and you've got dejon and there's going to be a ball sharing thing going on maybe the steals come back a little bit but I don't like betting on a May Deon is not a positive in percentages so it's not like that can float him he's a pretty good rebounder for a guard but he's going to a place that like is that going to be a a big part of it could assists go up I actually don't think so because they're going to run a lot of offense through Zion and they'll run some offense through Ingram and they'll run some offense through dejonte and so again you're talking about a guy that was late 30s per game last year that like the odds of him going up the only way he goes up is if his steals go from 1.4 to two and then it sort of doesn't matter what the other stuff was but then he becomes a little bit more of a specialist which is probably not what you were hunting for with him anyway good steals yes but specialist steals H I think Deonte finishes this year in the 40s on a per game basis and so again what I talking about here like the Steels guys that I expect to be worse than their pre- rank or better than their pre- ranking both Buster guys that I expect to be worse in both and for Deonte like if he misses seven or eight ball games he doesn't break that Mark let's keep shuffling along here we're only at 20 some odd minutes so I think we got time for a few more rounds fourth round steals and bust this is players are starting to move a little bit more now so you're going to get some fresh names in the mix fourth round steals and bus uh your steals in the fourth round and there are three of them so we're gonna have to hustle in this one Freddy van Ved is the first one he moved down in the latest board adjustment from 30 34 to 38 this is a guy who's a second rounder per game I have no idea why he's this late and I have no idea why he's moving later this is an obvious one Freddy van vet easy peasy uh Jaylen Williams at 43 in my eyes is another obvious one he's a 30s something ranked guy even if he doesn't do more than last year because again I know you're like Dan he wasn't a 30 he was 41 last season yeah that's because he had a month and a half to start the year where he was around 50 and then he was like 33 the rest of the season he could get into the 20s per game this year and it would not be that crazy or surprising I love Jaylen Williams I expect his role to continue to increase on that team because Caruso comes in as a lower usage guy Jaylen Williams and Chad hren are the number twos behind Shay who would like to I think do less night toight so expect Jaylen to take at least the 14 shots he got last year maybe a tiny bit more the steals could come up you never know the threes could come up he's just an amazing well-rounded player I love Jaylen Williams in the fourth round and the other fourth round steal is again a math question and that's Jimmy Butler at 46 this one could burn us and frankly I don't think you should take Kawai in the third and Butler in the fourth if you're not in a games cap format that's kind of maybe potentially too much risk but the thing is Jimmy Butler are going to miss about 20 ball games and last year he was number 26 per game because his Steel heals were about as low as they've been in recent memory he's starting to add a little bit more at the three-point line I wouldn't count on it but you saw a little bit of an uptick there especially come postseason time but if Butler Steels come up from 1.3 back to 1.5 or 1.6 that's how he jumps up the board we've seen him as a mid-second rounder many many times I just I wouldn't be that surprised to see guys move around near Butler and Jimmy maybe just do the tiniest bit extra and jump up to you know 20ish but the fact that he's getting drafted in the late 40s gives this massive injury buffer again I don't want to rely too much on the fact that he is now playing with a bit of a chip on his shoulder Miami hasn't extended him I call it a contract year but I'm sure he's looking around going you guys are going to insult me Jimmy Butler he seems like just the kind of player that would play Angry so maybe you get it extra three or four games out of him or maybe you just get angry Jimmy for the same old 62 63 64 games a year but either way this late with that giant per game leap I think you've got enough of a buffer that I mean you know last year a good example he played in 60 games which is not very good admittedly at late 20s per game rank he was number 54 by totals so like in what felt like kind of a bad case scenario he still only missed his 46 pre- Rank by half a round so you're getting a guy again at his floor couple of Buss in this round I you know as many times as I go in circles around it I can't get on board the Poo Bon Caro thing you know he could continue to get better but his free throw showed no signs of getting better season over season in fact it went down by one and a half% field goal went up from 42 a half to 45 A2 and maybe that improves a little more or maybe it stays exactly the same either way he's a high turnovers he was at 3.1 last year low percentages guy who doesn't go crazy in defensive stats and by the way I don't expect that to change all that much you know it's not like Pala banero is magically about to become a new player he's not a huge Steals and blocks guy that's like that's okay that's who he is those things don't usually flip if you're drafting Paulo you're doing it here in a points league and the numbers bear this out because if you're punting turnovers last year so eight cat he jumps to number 98 not horrible but obviously nowhere near number 37 if you're punting turnovers and free throw percent he jumps to number 57 last year which again fine but still not in the fourth round if you are however punting field goal free throw and turnover he was number 42 last year and he finally gets to the fourth round so this is truly a points League only spot that's Paulo bonero you just like as I mentioned I you know I'm I'm leaving out the guys that are build specific like Giannis like Trey young in the early in the first round those guys are not busts cuz you're building them with ignoring most likely their worst category but with Paulo you've got to ignore three and that's just too many like Kate Cunningham or Alber shenon these are other good examples does Shang get to number 32 per game in nine cat not probably not if his free throw number still stinks but you're Drafting shenon and you're probably not worried about free throw Cade might be a similar thing you know Cade Cunningham you're probably not worried about turnovers or field goal or both if you're not worried about both Cade was what 35 last year field goal turnover Punt and the second half of the season when he actually got his game together punting both those things was he 20s something like that pretty good in any event those guys were're not talking about because that it's not fair it's just not fair fifth round uh only one of each in this one so that'll save us a little bit of time your fifth round steal is I'm saving time while I scroll down the board to collect him Emanuel quickly at number 55 uh shout out to Red bower for kind of talking me into quickly being a good pick at this spot um last year once he moved to Toronto and we did a Toronto preview over the weekend so again if you want the like six seven minute version of this that's where you can go down the stretch quickly was number 26 it's not going to be that good because Scotty Barnes and RJ Barrett will be back to actually do stuff for the Raptors but even when everybody was together quickley was still hovering around number 50 I don't know that he's going to go too far beyond that when the team is healthy so a healthy Raptors team it quickly probably ends up what I've referred to on recent shows as like a very very small win baseball analogy like just an opposite field single or a walk or something very quiet that helps but if anyone misses a moment around him that's what we saw the extra shots the extra stuff the extra assists every time a player's out quickly will roll top 40 top 35 every time two players are out he rolls top 25 so it's that's the buil-in for quickly that basically the floor is very close to where you're getting him floor is probably 60 5 65 70 which is very close at this range and the ceiling is does anyone miss a minute does anybody take a game off if not he probably finishes right around where you got him if so he ends up as a pretty big win My bust of the fifth round fifth round is Brandon Ingram who I just I cannot like he just keeps going at this spot over and over and over again and in addition to being a massive injury risk that for some reason gets a pass consistently he's just not the guy that for one season was a top 50 fantasy play remember that one year I think it was his first season with the Pelicans after the ad trade he had like 1.3 Steals and we were all looking at it like what the hell his free throw his three-pointers his steals all went up none of it made sense other than free throws that's a thing that players adjust year-over-year and sometimes guys extend their range a little bit but the steel profile he's back down where he has always been in his career over the last couple of seasons and so basically Ingram is number 90 75 to 100 range year over year over year his percentages are good his points are good his assists are good out of a power forward small forward spot his rebounds are fine his threes are low his Steals and blocks are low his turnovers are a little bit high in eight cat he has an outside shot at this rank sure sure why not you know at caddy was number 60 last year so you know if you're punching turnovers this is okay but again that's not an upside play and he's not a guy you're building around foundationally so why would you take a guy that you have to be ignoring one category to get him to his spot on top of the fact that the pels brought in deante Murray so if I'm fading deante Murray on the notion that he's gonna do less you kind of have to fade Ingram on the same notion and so I will and I forgot to put his face up on this screen sorry YouTubers whoops clicked on the wrong guy Brandon Ingram is my bust of the fifth round I just I don't see how he gets back even to where he was last year which is funny too because normally I like the percentages guys um and Ingram is one but he's constantly overdrafted because because he scores and people just assume he's something he's not on top of the fact that like dude hasn't played a season of games in a while forever he had like a 70 something with the Lakers I think one time and that was it so nay no pass get out of here let's keep going sixth round and now we're starting to you split hairs a little bit because what do you call a bust you'll notice that I almost don't have any busts on my board the rest there's like four the rest of the draft because like what's a bust if you draft them in the 80s you drop them who gives a crap uh so in the sixth round my steel is Tobias Harris still at 64 I think he's a steel he was an unbelievable steel where he was before which was 81 at 64 I still think he's one because Tobias has one of the most fantasy friendly stat sets out there he's a low turnovers guy who's basically a positive in everything he is not in real not in real life what I'm about to say would sound insane if I was talking about it in real life in fantasy he's Leonard without the right number of shots if Tobias Harris got to take 18 shots a game like kawii Leonard does they'd pretty much have the same fantasy lines I know you guys think I'm crazy but extrapolate it Tobias SES took 13 and a half shots a game last year he averaged 17 points six and a half boards three assists a steel point7 blocks on 4988 splits with 1.33 pointers kawh Leonard last year took 17 shots a game he was at 23 whatever points per game two threes six boards three and a half assists 1.6 steals .9 blocks okay so Tobias is not going to get to 1.6 steals 5289 splits not that far apart what's the difference debias is going to rebound more Kawai is going to get more defensive stats there's your difference it's not going to happen I'm not saying debias Harris is about to get 17 shots a game this year but he's probably going to get more than 13 and and a half because he's in Detroit with a bunch of guys who's sorry Detroit kind of suck at basketball or at least at scoring other than Cade so Tobias can go out there and be like great I could go take 15 shots a game this year so he'll be better so 13 and a half shots becomes 15 shots how much does that really matter well for someone who's efficient a good amount because the other stuff will stay somewhat constant so bump 17 points and 1.3 threp pointers up to 19 points and one 6 thre pointers and you get a better positive in both percentages out of him that's how you jump around I don't think it's crazy at all to think that Tobias Harris is Tobias Harris finishes this year inside the top 40 I don't think that's crazy I really don't and like he's done it before not in the last two seasons because he was competing with multiple other superstars but he did did it in Philly 2020 2021 he was numbered 28 while taking 15 shots a game T My bust uh I kind of wanted to make it Julius Randle but I'm not I'm gonna go Yousef nerkish at 69 and I get it there's a little bit of a punt element going on here with nurkic and I said I wasn't going to do the punt thing but nerk was also number one 112 last year in a particularly healthy season that's nine cat if you were punting free throws he jumped up to number 62 which is basically where he's being drafted but again you're talking about ceiling 60s is the ceiling for a punt free throw nage in my eyes he also has a much more capable backup this year nerk only played 27 and change minutes a game last year and he didn't have a particular L capable backup they got Mason plumbley out there now it's a deeper team in every respect Phoenix is deeper so they need less out of nurkic does that mean it's gonna he's going to do less not necessarily but odds of him doing more is extremely low so I would say nerk either replicates last year or gets a tiny bit worse which again if you're not punting free throws this is a hell no if you are punting free throws you can you can do better like you can get guys that are punt free throw nerkish types one two three rounds later you can get yaka purle later who's a punt free throw guy you can take some swings later on with guys like Walker Kesler or Derek Lively or Mitchell Robinson or Trace Jackson Davis you don't have to spend a nerkish pick on it you can Shore up your other non bigs categories in this range so I just don't see that much of a reason to to go down that path seventh uh oh yes see is in the seventh round I almost messed up the mat seventh round bust is Clint capella I don't know what the hell he's doing at 74 this is a recent this was a move that I don't understand he was number 91 on the first yaho board which felt like kind of fine for capella uh he's number 59 if you were punting free throws last year and he's another guy whose job is going to get smaller so capella played 25 almost 26 minutes a game last season he was also relatively healthy played in 73 out of 82 games and he's just going to do less and less we've heard rumors that Ona oku might start we know Atlanta wants to Trend younger capella is very much still for the third year in a row on the trade block there's just absolutely no reason at all to spend a seventh round pick on Clint capella who again is going to do the exact same stuff this coming year as the players we just talked about Walker wrer and Trace Jackson Davis and Mitchell Robinson and Derrik Lively II don't spend a seventh rounder on him even if you're punting free throw take care of the other categories because there are punt free throw bigs available after a 100 in droves this year and if you're not punting free throws well then he's a clear two rounds ahead of where he should be anyway so fart sound effect let's keep going uh I went capella first because he was first I actually think and this one this might be the one that you guys can argue with me the most on I think Bradley Beal is a steal in the seventh round he's finally in my eyes going as late as he should go he was not healthy at all last season which is a big Downer and I'm sure a reason that everybody's going to be freaking out about Beal but he's number 72 per game on the season after a truly awful start to the year but the second half of the Season Beal only missed like four games and he was number 56 per game and if you want to go even tighter to the end of the year the last two months I believe Beal only missed three games and he was number 29 over that stretch he is a terrific Roto player in his role in Phoenix steals blocks assists threes points field goal free throw like he does it all the question of course is Health but again if we're talking about a guy that could legitimately be a top 40 and much more easily top 50 per game guy we create another buffer where 62 63 games or more he probably beats his ADP and then hell maybe we get a half decent Health season out of be maybe we get like 67 games out of Bradley and he blows his ADP out of the water so that's why I think the math Now tips in his favor I liked him more at 85 which is where he was on the last board than I do at 77 but I still think you got something there and he's one of the rare guys in that range in n on nine cat boards that I think could actually beat his number by a good amount honorable mention this round by the way was D'Angelo Russell who uh was you know like 55 to 70 range most of last year with minimal fluctuating uh I don't think there's a ton of room for grow on DLo and there is the possibility that he gets traded so that's why I left him off but he's kind of the honorable mention in this group we are now at 40 minutes so we're going to just squeeze in some lightning round action towards the end of the show uh your eighth we're to the eighth round now right yeah 75 to 86 your eighth round there are bust none your eighth round steel Jonas Valen chunis your ninth round steals and bus this runs from 87 to 98 Jeremy Grant is the bust in there at 94 uh there is no steel for whatever reason oh wait a minute did I screw that up was there no steel or bust in the oh there was no Steeler no no that's right I screwed this up the eighth round the eighth round steel was yonus valentus the eighth round bust was Jeremy Grant okay I messed up the numbers on that one so JV was your Steel in the eth uh Grant was your bust in the eth the ninth goes from 97 to 108 busts I still don't believe fully in RJ Barrett or Jaylen green your steals in this group I think herb Jones beats that pre- rank as does Alex Caruso mostly on steals IIT zubats is my favorite Steel in the ninth round bogdon bogdanovich is my second favorite Steel in the ninth round steals in the 10th round there are three of them ogan anobi Mike connley Colin seon I have no busts in in the 10th round and then of course you've got oku Kesler Lively Mitchell Robinson all of those centers that have certain upside and downside I don't think either one is a steel or a bust because I think you're building different things and there's that sort of upside downside situation and 10th round is where we will pause if you guys want more than that you can go watch my sleeper show I did that on Friday which is all the guys I like after pick 100 and explanations on it like I think so uh Mitchell Robinson got an explanation there I like him after pick 100 but I also realize that there is an like an exceptionally low floor and that's why he's not on the steals Department because what if he only plays 45 games what if the Knicks bringing his Center there's a lot of things that could derail what if he shoots 39% at the free throw line too much thing too many things that could derail him so that's why he's not a steel but he is in my eyes a guy that you take a shot on in that later range I would rather have as I just second said a second ago an anobi Conley Colin sexton in that range these are guys that I think beat that Mark per game and totals and I don't feel as confident in some of those centers and that's why that to me is the the difference between calling it kind of like a sleepers Show versus Steals and busts kind of show pH that was a load wasn't it ladies and gentlemen I'm Dan basis please make sure to like please like I did a lot of work on this one please subscribe as well if you've been enjoying what we've been putting together on this thing my voice is going this morning that's weird need a sip of water got to have some water to close this thing out Dan besp on Twitter at old man squad please again subscribe rate review all that good stuff thank you to everybody that continues to do it we saw some unbelievable growth in the month of August let's make September September you know what this month is called let's make it even bigger see you guys on the next show I don't know when it's going to be and have a good Labor Day too okay byebye [Music]