Looking ahead to November | Facing South Florida

Published: Aug 24, 2024 Duration: 00:10:48 Category: News & Politics

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- Welcome back. I wanna dig a little deeper into Tuesday's election results, as well as look ahead to November. And I can't think of a better person to do that with than the author of Florida's Political Playbook, Kimberly Leonard. Kimberly, thank you for coming in. - Hi, thanks for having me. - So first time on the show and so very appreciative of you stopping by, but I wanna start with, we just wrapped up, we're taping this on Friday, we just wrapped up four days of the Democratic National Convention, all about the vibes. No Beyonce, but I think the speech generally that Kamala Harris gave was good, and I think she did what she needed to do. But the real question is, does Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket really change much in Florida? Does it put Florida at all in play? - So I don't think it puts it in play just because I won't believe that it's in play until I see the Harris campaign spend some real money in Florida. And then we have yet to see that, that we have yet to see any real changes in voter registration either. I do think it might narrow the victory that Trump will have in Florida and undoubtedly it's generating a lot of energy. I think they announced this week that there were 33,000 volunteers now who were just in Florida doing door knocking and phone banking and things like that. So I think it does change the way that the race is perceived and how involved people are getting. I also think that it could have an effect on some of the amendments, especially the abortion amendment. I've even had Republican women who identify as pro-abortion rights tell me that they hope that having Harris at the top of the ticket will help to move this issue forward. So they're gonna vote Trump, but then they're also gonna vote in favor of abortion rights. - Yeah, I think, I completely agree with what you just said. I think in some ways if Joe Biden had been at the top of the ticket, it would've been very reminiscent of the 22 Governors Race. Charlie Crist did not inspire Democrats to turn out and, you know, Ron DeSantis won by 19 points, but it wasn't so much that Ron DeSantis did so much better than his previous election, it's that Democrats just stayed home and the Democratic Party sort of collapsed in terms of turnout. And I think Biden, as you said, may have been headed that way as well in Florida, depressing turnout. And now Democrats are enthused. And I think the amendments, also marijuana may benefit as a result of it. So that's a big step forward. But some people still want to sort of talk to me about that it's gonna have an effect on the Senate race, so let's talk about that race. It's all about the money. - Again, spend money. It's an expensive place to campaign. - Well, you were at Debbie Mucarsel-Powell's victory party on Tuesday. What was the feeling like there? - Yeah, and the timing wasn't great because obviously a lot of Floridians, a lot of Florida Democrats were out in Chicago for the DNC. But yeah, there was a lot of energy around her candidacy. You know, if she were to be elected, she would be only the second Latina to join the Senate. So that idea energizes a lot of people, especially in a state where the Hispanic voting block is so influential. And so she got up on stage. I think it was pretty clear that she was leading the pack all along the way. You know, even President Biden had endorsed her in Tampa, or at least said we need to elect her, which I took as an endorsement. And you know, she's using a very similar playbook to what Vice President Harris is using against Trump. She's talking about the freedoms that we should be able to enjoy in our state. And when she says that, she means freedom, freedom for reproductive rights, freedom to have Social security and Medicare continue and things like that. And so we are seeing that very similar dynamic play out. And I think it'll be interesting to see if Harris herself comes to Florida to campaign and who is standing around her when she does that. - There's also a thing Democrats just have, they really wanna take Rick Scott out. There's just something about Rick Scott that gets the Democrats, and what I always say is, I don't think anybody loves Rick Scott. Maybe Mrs. Scott loves Rick Scott. - I don't know, - But generally, but I don't know that he's somebody who creates a lot of passion, but he wins. And at the bottom, at the end of the day, that's all that matters. They don't have to love you, they just have to vote for you. And Rick Scott is that guy who can you talk about money, you know, can write that check, if they come to him at the end and instead of say we need another $4 million to run ads across the I-4, he'll write that check for 4 million and he'll get his two or three point victory. He's never gonna win in a blowout, but he's always gonna try to win just by just enough. - Works really hard, shows up in all the right places. He was talking to the Venezuelan opposition leader last week right before I interviewed him. You know, he understands where to be at the right time. And so I do think that it's not just the money, it's also the work that he puts into it. And as far as, I mean, I think when you say nobody loves Rick Scott, I will say having interviewed people who've worked for him over the years, he might be the only politician where I haven't gotten a bad word or anything negative after people who work for him are very effusive about working for him. Which I realize might sound odd, but that has been something that I've noticed over the past like five years or so. - I just wanna touch on one congressional race up north in the panhandle of the Matt Gaetz race. This was the end of the Kevin McCarthy Vengeance Tour. He had tried to identify some of those Republican House members who had cost him the speakership, chief among them, Matt Gaetz. He spent probably three to $4 million through his super PAC with negative ads against Matt Gaetz. But yet, Matt Gaetz came and won by 75% of the vote. - Even more, yeah, yeah. I mean people love the Matt Gaetz story, love or hate him, you know, they just really wanna follow his career and what happens. We had a story that Gary Fineout from Politico that did extraordinarily well on our site. Gaetz seemed very confident about not just winning, but winning big from the very get go. Now I do get the impression from what I've heard, that McCarthy might've been workshopping some of this just in case Gaetz does decide to run for governor next time. And so some of the attack lines over some of the legal issues and things that he's faced, we might see how that resurface, should that happen, we might see McCarthy get involved again. I mean, he seems like he hasn't let it go, the ouster. - You just caused everyone to throw something at their television 'cause you're already talking about the 26th Governors Race. I've done the same thing. - I talk about it a lot, yes. - Because it's gonna be crazy on the Republican side. - And the Democratic side. - On the Democratic side too. - I feel like everyone wants to run for governor. It's the hottest ticket in town. - I wanna turn to another congressional race, the one down south. I think the only one that Democrats sort of talk about maybe they could flip is the Maria Elvira Salazar seat, District 27. - Oh yeah. - With Lucia Baez-Geller running against her. That's a R plus four district, you know, so it's still an uphill climb. When Donna Shalala held that seat a few cycles ago, I think it was a D plus one. So you know, that district lost Miami Beach and added Westchester, which is a Republican area down here. So it doesn't stack up well, but it goes to the idea of will Dade County vote for Trump? Will they turn out and the same way that Dade County won, Ron DeSantis won Dade County, will he win here? I don't know that he's gonna win Dade County, but I don't know if Harris wins Dade County, if it's enough to bring Lucia Baez-Geller across the finish line. - Right, exactly. And that's similar to kind of the Mucarsel-Powell dynamic, right? How much her candidate, he helps with some of the other races. I mean, some of the ways that the DCCC, which is the arm of the Democratic Party that works on these house races has started to attack Salazar, have given us an idea of the messaging on that. They say she goes around holding checks. - I think I remember something about that. - Yeah, I wasn't gonna bring it up, but now you have. (laughs) So I think that'll play prominently, they do wanna try to do something in Florida just to be, they have a couple of seats that they're trying to flip, including the one down here. I don't know how effective it'll be. You know, I also know that Trump is still very popular down here. I mean, I see Trump signs driving around, I see more Trump sign. I did see an Amendment 3 sign today, that was new. But generally speaking, it just seems like his support is really high here. I think going into it, the campaign maybe thought they could win Miami-Dade, but you know, now that Harris is at the top of the ticket, I don't know how much that changes things. - I can't let you go without bringing up an issue of there's this crazy idea of taking state parks and putting golf courses or pickleball courts in them. And I've never seen an idea get so universally condemned by so many people so quickly, what's going on here? - Yeah, yeah. And both Republicans and Democrats, and even you have Wilton Simpson urging people to show up and protest. So what happened was, it wasn't just the idea, which itself enraged a lot of people who care about the environment and conservation, but it also was the way that it was presented because it was essentially something that got leaked to the "Tampa Bay Times" and then the proposal was put out, which looked very similar to what the "Tampa Bay Times" had reported. And then they put out announcements saying, "Okay, in all these different nine state parks across the state, we're gonna be meaning to discuss these ideas" all at the same time, all at once, all very fast. And so that caused a lot of backlash. I mean, we heard it all over. - And you've got Republicans who are usually in lockstep with the DeSantis administration sort of coming out against him. You mentioned Wilton Simpson in the cabinet. I've seen members of Congress. Does that suggest that maybe this party, the grip that Ron DeSantis has had on the party is beginning to slip a little? - I mean, that's the thing. I haven't seen anything like this in the entire time that Governor DeSantis has been in office. He usually calls all the shots and people are completely in line with what he wants to do, even if he has to muscle things through the legislature. Look, he is entering his final couple of sessions and the attention very soon will turn to who is going to be the next governor of Florida. So that definitely has an impact as to his influence. - Kimberly Leonard, thank you. We'll have you back. We'll continue these conversations. - Thank you. - I really appreciate it. All right, we'll be right back after the break.

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