Michigan Weather Forecast - Wednesday, September 4, 2024

hey good morning my friends M live chief meteorologist Mark toosa here with the mive morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy and one thing I want to emphasize is summer will live on for much of September modified summer not the heat of Fourth of July weekend but 70s SES will we touch 90 again in September possible I don't think so some 85s some 87s yes probably so you're probably looking at that you know dreaded phone app and saying wow this weekend really cold we're going to have an early winter it doesn't really have any bearing if we have a chilly couple of Mornings in early September it doesn't have any bearing we've found any correlation to what happens later on it doesn't but I am going to cover that on M live today the winter forecast I talked to the long range forecasters at Noah and I'll give you some insight it's going to be definitely it's going to be a different winter than last winter we're not going to stretch stick to no winter at all Winters together so let's get on into it we're starting off this morning with smoke I'd sing it for you Smoke on the Water just trying to remember who who's sing that song but can you see it the Arc of like a fuzzy white that stretches from Southeast Michigan so Detroit and Ann Arbor and Lancing and Flint you probably seen this kind of milky white sky that is the smoke stretches back to around Grand Rapids mosan and lington and Pentwater and the Travers City area so we're going to have smoke in our skies today in fact I've picked out a model that forecasts the smoke and where you see this the red is red and orange are visible smoke visible Thick Smoke uh the aqua color I guess I'd call it still kind of smoky Matthew Bley so it's not going to be a warm winter I don't remember I don't use the word warm because your warm is versus someone else's warm I use warmer than normal normal colder than normal I let you decide because uh you know a warm winter in the 30s can still be cold to a lot of people so I don't think it will be much warmer than normal it will probably be a degree either side of normal meaning a degree colder than normal to a degree warmer than normal all right so here here we go through the afternoon so we're with the smoke and then as we go through the night it may be thin some and as we go through tomorrow it's still around but thinner also tomorrow you get no smoke and full sunshine in the Southeast tomorrow is a Blazer tomorrow is a sumy day ooh Carrie Wilson says summer needs to go away I don't know about that Cony Ray Castle Car Show rain out in Frankie you know I thought we've been around the Frank andou area for a long time and I can't really remember a rain out on a Friday but it's it looks damp so this is surface weather today gorgeous this is tomorrow morning tomorrow morning into early afternoon early afternoon into evening so okay that's right Deep Purple thank you ver fondin okay Deep Purple um Ian Gillian lead singer then or they went through a bunch of lead singers um so here is Thursday afternoon and most of lower is dry maybe the shower is approaching Traverse City and Frankfurt and manast and pki and charoy toward evening 6 to 8 tomorrow so tomorrow is a good day and then and especially in the Southeast and then Thursday night this is night into Friday morning Friday morning into early afternoon the cold front is stretched from around the Detroit area through an arbor uh down to Indiana the cold fronts this one has a little bit easier a Time blasting through Michigan so this is Friday 2:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. somebody asked about the Frankie MTH car show you know it's we'll have to see how it plays out it could just mean drizzle or some patchy shower I wouldn't say rain out you know just yet because he's kind of frontal systems can be real patchy uh and sporadic on the rainfall then we go to Friday night we go to Saturday morning morning into afternoon then we've got the colder air Aloft yes I use the word colder so this should set up some fairly widespread spurts of Lake Effect showers and that's what you're seeing in the models this is Saturday afternoon into evening again not a rain out wash out southern part Southern half of the state you just just get a sporadic Lake Effect shower more dry than wet weather Northwest lower you could have a period where the lake effect showers can lock in more than dry weather Saturday night Sunday morning still the cold air aoft still the cyclonic curvature around a storm system making the Air Act showery versus drying then this is Sunday and then we go into next week back to work and guess what it looks beautiful and here comes summer again this is Monday and Tuesday dry and Wednesday mostly sunny and classic great September weather if you could take a vacation next week do it I might even do that myself I got a high school reunion back home toward the Chicago area I'm going to go visit my mom and sister family and see the high school buddies so that should be kind of fun but next week again looks fantastic if you got an outdoor project lined up got to do a roof before it gets cold next week is your week if you're not on it already so we're about 80 today in a lot of places tomorrow we're 85 in sagon Bay City in Midland we're summery we're 85 in Ann Arbor we're 85 in Detroit we're uh 83 in Grand Rapids Traverse City is 80 before the clouds sneak in late in the day and you can see the cooler air up to the north then Friday you can go all the way from quite warm 70ish in ant Arbor and Detroit area to 7ish Sagen Bas City to Grand Rapids to maybe 60s in Northern lower Michigan and I'm still doubtful of these 50s the models have this and the national weather service has this um you know in highs in the 50s but here's my thing the Great Lakes have tremendous warming or cooling powder Power at certain times because of the water temperature right now they have tremendous warming power when we get C so the the surface of Northern Lake Michigan is still in the 60s the surface of Lake Superior is still in the 50s and 60s so to have a high in northern Michigan only in the 50s with the northwest wind you're going to have continual 60 Dee air blowing on Shore so 50s sound a little bit you know cool to me for a high temperature now when you get underneath one of those rain showers it drags that cold air down to the surface and then you cool down in 50s don't get me wrong it's going to be very fall-like on Saturday and Sunday but you know I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible and I don't know I would say 60 would it' be hard to not crack 60 on a wind off of Lake Michigan at this time of the year so that's Saturday 60s in the South 50s in the north this is Sunday this model brings the 50s down to the South again I don't know and that by the way means the morning if it clears out in the South uh well we'll check that in a second here see what the mornings go down to we got to start thinking about Frost time of the year not just yet but we got to start thinking about it uh so then Monday back to the low 70s then Tuesday back to near 80 then Wednesday in the low 80s Thursday upper 70s low 80s Friday upper 70s to low 80s at least uh let me grab let me grab the low temperature forecast just so we can see what we're going to do on those days when it's real chilly so this would be Saturday morning okay this is M live chief meteorologist Mark to grosser with the m live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy so Saturday morning you know you got some upper 40s Inland Northern Gaylord hoton Lake you got low 50s in the South and then Sunday morning we all have temperatures in the 40s maybe mid 40s even to the South I would agree with that uh but no Frost temperatures and then as we get into next week our morning temperatures come back to you know 55 to 60-ish and now the extended forecast okay so here's the extended forecast 6 to 10 day forecast is cooler than normal but dry and that's because of this weekend's weather then the 8 to 14 day starts to show you that warming off to the West heading our way and dry and the 3 to four week forecast that's only made once a week for us last Friday but it goes out to September 27th and it indicates a strong chance that we'll be warmer than normal in September and drier than normal and guess what that is the long-term climate Trend so I would totally agree with that summer lives folks I know some of you are saying I want summer to be done this is a different summer September summer is different you can get a you know you could get a six or 12 hour period where it's somewhat humid and sticky but September summer if you get to 80 to 82 it is primo type weather so enjoy it start making that list and getting the projects done I got them too and I'm got pretty confident I'm when to get them done it's going to be a different winter this winter versus last last we had two things that uh signaled to us it would be warmer than normal and less snow than normal those two things last winter were um the obviously the 800lb gorilla in the room that is the warmer oceans and the current global warming Trend and then the second thing was a strong very strong El Nino which on its own without even a warming Globe a strong El Nino gives us about a 70% chance of a warmer and drier than normal winter in Michigan so we had those two things combined and that's why it was the winter that wasn't this year of course we still have the 800lb gorilla the warmer oceans the warmer polar regions less ability to be extremely cold but we also more than likely 70% chance have a linia forming that doesn't really give us a good temperature signal in Michigan and that's why Noah is saying probably about normal so will it be a cold winter yes it will especially if you've adjusted to uh thinking last winter was the kind of weather we're going to have every winter now we still put the 800 lb gorilla in there so we take the linia that is colder than normal from Montana through the dtas to Minnesota to its kind of grip on the cold phase a little bit as you go into Wisconsin and really no signal in Michigan and then you put that 800 PB gorilla of global warming uh less cold in the winter on that and it lifts you to possibly being slightly warmer than normal but the interesting thing is the linia storm track puts us almost smack dab in a higher than normal precipitation amount for the winter I.E Snow Yeah I.E mess so it'll be a different one and we know it we know that every other winter is different here in Michigan you have you can have a mild winter then a harsh winter and so we'll get into it in the uh post on M live and there you have it but until then you better keep those tropical shirts out cuz you are going to need them summer is not done exclamation point take care I'm live chief meteorologist Mark tor grosa