Harry Enten identifies ‘never-seen-before' presidential race data point

This week, CNN released a slew of battleground polling. There was so much information inside. But one thing was missing. One big thing. CNN senior data reporter Harriette. And who is with us now? I'm not sure I've ever been happier to see you here. I'm not sure I've ever been happier to be with you, Mr. Berman. This race is close. Yes. Historically close. Historically close. You know, I just want to sort of zone out a little bit, go to 35,000ft and just point out how close this race has been. Consistently, consistently close are it campaigns where any candidate lead by at least five points in the polls? Look, most of the time there's at least some stretch where one of the candidates is ahead by at least five points at least three weeks, in which one candidate led by at least five points. That happened in every single campaign from 1964 to 2020. How many days have we had this campaign where one candidate was ahead by at least five points nationally? Look at this. Zero zero days, zero days. The fact is, this race has been consistently tight in a way that we have never seen before. Mr. Palmer is always versus never. Correct. That's the difference between this campaign and every other campaign we've seen for the last 75 years or so. All right. The battleground polls that we're looking at give us some perspective on how close they are. You know, sometimes we look at these seven close states and, you know, you see all these numbers that are up. There you go. I can't make heads or tails of it. So I just want to sort of combine them and look at the Democrat versus Donald Trump in those seven closest battleground states. Look at the 2020 final margin, an average across the seven states. It was Biden plus 9.0.9 points. You don't think that could get any closer? We can, in fact, get closer. Look right now Kamala Harris up. But this by just 0.6 points on average, only about half a point 6/10 of a point. My goodness gracious. That is how tight we are talking right now across the seven battleground states. It is a race, Mr. Berman, that is well within the margin of error. When you look across the seven key battleground states that will determine this election. You look at this, you go 0.3 percent, then you know that they're basically the same, but you're talking about actual vote margins that were so small. So show us the difference that a polling margin can make. All right. So let's just say the polls match up perfectly to what the results end up being. Kamala Harris would win this election with 292 electoral votes that Donald Trump's 246. But let's just say we move the current polls and let's say the result differs by them by a single percentage point, and Donald Trump is the beneficiary of it. Look at this. If Trump outperforms his current polls by just a single point, you take that Kamala Harris win. And look at this. Donald Trump gets 287 electoral votes. Because the bottom line is Pennsylvania would flip up here. And you would also get this flip out in Nevada over here. And that, my friends, is what we're talking about. We are talking about the closest campaign in a generation where a single point could make all the difference in the world. Jon, this is a truly exciting race right now where any slight movement can make all the difference in the world. And even more exciting because you are here with us. Thank you Joe. As we've been noting this morning, we're just two months out from the election, the first ballots set to be mailed out this afternoon. And this race is so incredibly close. CNN's latest polling shows an incredibly tight race across six battleground states. And it is closer this know it is so close in Pennsylvania. It is be closest of these contests. The Keystone State of course the biggest prize for both campaigns. Trump and Harris, both at 47% in our battleground poll. Pennsylvania, also one of the keys to the Senate, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, is polling, according to this, tied with Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Here was Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walsh, who was campaigning in Erie, PA, yesterday, taking a page from the state's popular Democratic governor. It's very clear that our opponents in this race see the world differently. Now, I'm going to quote which I think is a brilliant quote by your great governor, Josh Shapiro. He often says, and I hear him say this whenever Donald Trump's talking about America, he's talking America. He does not believe in the promise of America, and he continues to put this country down. Now, here's CNN political commentator Michael Smerconish. He is the host of CNN's Smerconish. Michael, wonderful to see you. Thank you so much for being here. let's talk about Pennsylvania. I mean, honestly, we could probably do every political segment from here until Election Day on Pennsylvania because at the end of the day, it might be the entire ballgame. What are you hearing? What are you seeing? what do you think it's going to come down to here? So to your point about the good to see you, by the way. Thank you, Casey, for having me. Back to your point about just how close the race is. Real clear politics as of this moment in time, says 47.2 to 47.2. In the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, it can't get much more close than that. Tim Walz, Governor Walz, why is he in Erie? Because Erie, as you well know, is one of those bellwethers. If you win Erie, Pennsylvania, you're going to win the Commonwealth. And if you win the Commonwealth, chances are you're going to win the presidency. Can I put on your radar the concern that I have about where this is all going, because the pre canvasing process doesn't begin until 7:00 Am on Election day. They can't touch those Mail-In ballots until that morning at 7 a.m.. This is one of the reasons why in 2020 you'll remember Wolf Blitzer called the race the Saturday after the election. And I'm really concerned that if it's in the end, as close as people envision and if it comes down to Pennsylvania, that we could have a process where there's a window of ballot counting, where a lot of disinformation, misinformation is spread not only by domestic forces, political parties, one perhaps more than the other. But look at what the Russians and the Iranians are up to. There's like this perfect storm that's brewing. And if I'm hoping for one thing, as we are nine weeks out, it's that there be a decisive outcome one way or the other, so that we're not having to pick up the pieces and figure out who's telling the truth. Yeah, Michael, I mean, what do you think the likelihood is of that at this point? I mean, candidly, with when Biden was at the top of the ticket, this race was increasingly becoming not a close one. It seemed clear that Trump was on track to win. That's not the case now. And we've heard Trump start to use some of the language that honestly, it has echoes to what we heard him saying back in 2020, as that week basically was unfolding between Election Day and that call on Saturday. And yeah, I barely slept that week, as I'm sure you did in two as we were all covering it. there are definitely some signposts that show that we may be facing a period where, again, there are it's not just people on the outside, but potentially one of the major candidates themselves. Totally. And I think that it becomes incumbent upon all of us in the media, those of us with platforms to educate the public about the fact that if there's not a decisive outcome that night, it doesn't mean that there's been shenanigans involved. We remember the red mirage and the blue wave, right? Because so many more Democrats were voting by absentee ballot in that 2020 cycle when many of us tried to educate people. Don't go looking at the initial returns as they come in that Tuesday night and think, that's the victor, because this thing is going to have to play itself out. I don't think there will be as much mail in voting in this cycle as that cycle, because that was the pandemic. I might be wrong because more Republicans are now receptive to voting by mail, but this is a really important issue, and I think that for the next several weeks, the media need to be talking about it so that people understand and are prepared to watch these events play out. Michael, since you are so focused on Pennsylvania, we could all be watching it on election night. You mentioned a red mirage. Are we going to see a red mirage? A blue mirage? Initially out of Pennsylvania, I think that we could see a red mirage, because more will probably be Democrats who are who are waiting and voting by mail, Republicans who are doing so old school showing up on Election day. So the initial burst, you know, there's going to come that moment, nine weeks, I guess, from this past Tuesday when we're watching CNN, and there will be the big board, and John King is going to be standing in front of that map. Just wait, hang in until the events play out. And by the way, one of the thing and it's Pennsylvania focused, what does this all mean? If it's really 47.2 to 47.2, it means that Tuesday night is damn important. And by the way, where's that debate taking place in Pennsylvania, obviously. And where is Kamala Harris parked? Pittsburgh while she prepares Michael Smerconish. So grateful to have you.