WE. ARE. BACK. | Week ZERO + Future Talk | NCAAF Top Bets & Predictions

INTRO YouTube what's happening we have made it football season is back tomorrow is Saturday August 24th as you can see we got four football games to talk about today in college oh it feels so good saying that out loud into a microphone oh it's been amazing can't wait so yeah the games aren't exactly the best but guess what it's real football it's not preseason NFL it's actual meaningful football on the field and we get to watch it tomorrow and we get to bet on it oh it's a new season the Recaps at the bottom we're reset to zero we're going to track every single game throughout the season just like we do on baseball every single day and there's going to be a lot of play you think I bet a lot in baseball you haven't seen nothing yet I will oh yeah there's going to be some plays I drop a lot of parlays I drop a lot of straight bets I do yeah I hell I do teasers in football I don't whatever I want to do football is my number I love yeah I love it so you you get it you get if you're watching this you know what I'm feeling so anyways we have four games to talk about today we're going to go through these games and since we don't have much information I'm typically statistics based and I look at like Trends and leans and things like that because if you've been watching from baseball you see how I do it every day football's a little different so what we're going to do is we're going to focus on with it being week zero or their first game of the season we're going to focus more so on the like the depth chart who came in who left we're going to look at that we're going to look at the stats from last year because I have it set up so we can see the 2023 St see what they did teams didn't change all that much so you know coaching staffs changed here and there but not too many changes really massively happen in some places so it should be pretty easy to interpret last year stats into the first game so basically with some of the players that came back so based on that we'll look at the lines we'll look at the totals we'll look and see if there's anything we can get value in with it being week one I tend to be a little more cautious cuz I kind of want to see what they do but still I'm going to be unloading some plays even though it's only four plays I will plays don't you worry they're coming today so after the plays are done we're going to bounce over to the Futures and we're going to look through those because there's only four games so let's do the four games we'll do the Futures and we'll call a day there one quick video uh drop a like And subscribe football's back baby let's jump into that first game right all right first Florida State/Ga Tech game up we got Florida state Georgia Tech Florida State 13-1 last year Georgia Tech 7-6 they got the gift of a win against Miami because Miami forgot to take a knee you know fun things like that are back finally Florida State's minus 450 on the money line you can see that they are only 10 and a half on the spread right now I started making this video they were 12 A2 that's how much this line has moved already so we're getting in some weird territory here so 56 and2 is what 55 A2 it's already going up people are betting the over people are excited the money's coming in so there we go let's head on over to the next page let's look at the stats these are 2023 stats this shows the rankings in the Middle with the advantage on who has the best ranking based on 2023 stats as we move throughout the season 2023 will go away and I'll slowly start putting like last one last three how they are away how they are home based on where they're at all that stuff this thing will adjust as the games go and I'll be using the same thing for the NFL as well so this is what we're using uh at the top you'll see last week that'll show what they did last week so we can see it on screen and then next week we'll show who they're playing like Florida State's next game is against Boston College on Labor Day Georgia Tech is playing Georgia state next week so we can see that pretty cool information right there so um basically you can see Georgia Tech was pretty good on the rushing and they were better they scored they had more yards per game on offense uh passing clearly went to Florida State because of Jordan Travis most of the year to me personally Florida State's defense is the key here because Florida State look at those numbers yeah they they had turnover every team has turnover we know that but Georgia Tech's defense just was not good let's just be honest they were not the best they gave up 31 points a game they gave up 450 yards a game Florida State's defense will lock you down and I think they're going to shut Georgia Tech down somewhat so uh for this one so let's look a little deeper shall we uh first thing we're going to do is go to some depth charts and I'm going to make a statement that's probably going to upset some people because I heard someone else say it and soon as I heard I went mhm yeah I agree this yeah it's not my original thought I cannot remember who said it I saw it yesterday I think it was on Tik Tok for all things so here we go this is Florida State's thing yellow this is from my rlbs yellow means they're new they came in or they're freshman the main thing everyone's going to look at is DJ I cannot say it I've been trying to say this man's name for five years ever since he was at Clemson and I cannot do it I struggle with names what can I say um I call him dju or DJ ulele everyone knows who you're talking about this DJ you yeah so he is in there and everyone's focusing on him the thing I heard was I think or that person thinks that DJ is going to be a massive downgrade from Jordan Travis and the first thing I thought was yeah probably so yeah but the thing that no one's talking about is Roy Dell Williams is now in from Alabama and royell if we look at royale's history last year with 110 carries 5.1 average dude is going to be the star of the show now and DJ if you look at his stats 21 touchdown seven picks 22 and seven I mean that's okay I mean his completion percentage went down Five Points that's not good you were playing against different H just I'm not liking it so I think this is going to be more of a heavy heavy run offense DJ is going to do a lot of running himself royell is going to get a lot of touches like I've seen some tickets for royell over for the season and I like those I think I want to jump I don't like betting too many Futures but this is a future I like because I think he is going to Co The Rock a lot in this season for him so also let's bounce over to Georgia Tech you can see most of their team is back when it comes to like the first string so a few new faces but mainly like Hayes King is the main guy we're looking at Hayes King he went 26 and 15 last year 62% 2755 yards pretty good season especially for Georgia Tech it feels weird seeing Georgia Tech throw the ball so much seeing as how they were running so much forever it just feels weird whatever changes are changes we move on so good season can't complain I think Florida State should be able to hold him back a little bit this in this game so I think for the year he's going to do fine do I expect them to be like 10 and three 10 and two no no but maybe seven eight wins maybe maybe a little worse we'll see but for me personally in this one I am looking at uh Florida State's going to go the M line for sure I'm taking them I don't think Georgia Tech can get the win here I think Florida State's defense will make sure they get the win but when when it comes to the total I mean the spread or the total I don't like the spread it was 12 1/2 literally like 20 minutes ago now it's 10 and 1 half that's how fast it moved the total was 55 and a half now it's 56 and A2 I the under I'm just going to say I think Flor is going to run the ball they're going to run the clock I think the under Florida stes U Georgia Georgia Tech is going to struggle to get points as it is I think 56 and a half under should be a nice play maybe uh 287 2814 2810 317 you know none of those get close to 56 I know but that's what I'm thinking so I'm going to take the under 56 and a half now that we cross that key number 56 and Florida State will go on my Monday night parlay and if you're new for football um do a lot I do some really big parlays when it comes to money lines especially in football because HomeField is I know they're not at home I know they're in Ireland but still that matters you got the travel you got the jet lag first game of the season a whole bunch of things can add up here I mean look at last year uh was it last year I believe it was Northwestern went 1 and 11 but the only win was the Ireland game like come on things are weird in Ireland so I'll still say FL State the money line I'm going to take the under 56 and a half and let's move on to the next game SMU/Nevada all right next up SMU and Nevada and let me tell you just from looking at this this game is a total mismatch let's be honest here smu's minus 3,000 on money line they're 25 a half on the spread you can see over under 50 five okay that makes sense so let's bounce over here to the information we see this is all 2023 stats and what do you notice a whole bunch of little pony logos right there because they are favored in every category I have on here that's points per game passing yards rushing yards total yards third down offense percentage seconds per play basically how fast they are points against pass against Rush against total against third down defense turnover margin and penalty yards Nevada is terrible that's what they were last year you can see the rankings none of the rankings are even close SMU was great last year against the competition they had now the biggest question is okay they're going to ACC they're stepping up their competition sure Nevada ain't that competition right now so I don't think they got nothing to worry about so another thing you can see all the information there and it's some heavy heavy leaning towards SMU now if I pop over here we going to the first thing we're going to do is we're going to look at the depth charts real quick we can see for SMU we got Preston Stone back and brashard Smith's in from Miami now if we're looking at Preston Stone we look at his last year you can see he did pretty good 3200 yards 28 huies and six picks great season overall brashard Smith coming in he's Lista is a starter he didn't do too much at Miami but I mean he's a starter for a reason they they see something they like so I still think it's going to be the president Stone show I think he's going to throw it all over the field not a problem now if we look over here at Nevada we look at their history their depth chart you can see what's going on here there's a whole brand new receiving core came in same quarterbacks here though I don't care how good your receivers are if your quarterback's not that good how you going to give him the ball because look at last year for him not hating on Brendan Lewis at all but you threw 1300 yards two touchdowns six picks that was your season last year I mean 2021 was good, 1500 10 and three but where's those numbers because last year just wasn't good I don't see any world where Nevada keeps up with SMU in this one I just can't see it because of everything you look at the depth chart for SMU they got almost every their whole team still there yellow was the new transfers or freshman or additions that's just it so and you can see they got some pieces on defense uh pieces on special teams but their core offense is still there that offense as we saw was literally just dominating last year so for me I am going to one take SMU in the money line parlay of course you'll learn as the season goes on I put a lot of favorites in the money line parlay usually it's only for home teams unless there's just a such a big mismatch like this like this is one of those so I'm putting SMU in there they're going to join Florida state they're going to hang out together I'm going to take I'm going to take SMU minus 25 and a half this feels like a 493 halftime we saw that last year we seen the Plenty times that's that's what this feels like so I'm taking SMU on the spread and I'm also yeah I'm going to do it um no no no I was going to take the over I thought about taking the over I'm looking at it it's staring at me it's like uh I don't know if Nevada can get a touchdown just saying it I don't know if they do so I'm going I'm going to take SMU on the spread money line that's it in this game Let's head on to the next one all right Montana St/New Mexico next up the next two obviously going to have an FCS matchup with an FBS team so we got to take those in consideration because it's week one there's four games we're going to find a way to bet on them somehow aren't we yes we are so this one is the third game it's Montana State versus New Mexico now outlier doesn't have any odds or props or anything for it because it involves the FCS team now I they might have it come tomorrow for the game but as a Friday afternoon they do not have that so here we go we can look at it we can see the line it's Montana State is favored by two touchdowns over New Mexico and people will see that and like what no shot but then you have to look at how Montana state was last year you got to see that their whole schedule let me load this up real quick let me look at 2023 and show you how they did oh they were number one in the Big Sky and yeah they lost to North Dakota State in overtime on December 2nd win win win lots and lots of wins this should be this is one of those fun ones where the FCS team is probably going to win quite easily so that's what it is um yeah looking at the line 550 money line from mon Santa States holds 54 a half let's bounce over and look at some stats because we actually can a little bit New Mexico went 4 and8 last year they had a whole bunch of rosters turnover but we can still look you can see in Montana State uh they don't have the rankings but if I put if I went through the effort and put the FCS rankings in here I'm pretty sure they'll be ahead in most these categor so but we can see New Mexico how they did they're 75th 25 points a game only two 11 passing 183 rushing which actually rushing 28th was not bad for the whole that's out of everybody in the FBS uh third down percentage was 40% slower at a 104 rank at 28 seconds per Play points allowed was terrible they allowed 37.4 their defense was atrocious passing yards 83 rushing yards 109 they allowed 419 yards a game that's not going to get it done that's not good so turnover margin was minus 6 per game and and then penalties almost 90 yards a game see it's the small things like that that add up so yeah New Mexico just I mean hate to say it 4 and8 they're just not really a good team so you come back here and the one we want to look at is we want to look at the roster and there's a lot of yellow and this is RADS yellow means new addition transfer or freshman and you got a lot of new people starting that ain't good for your first game you're going to have a lot look at the whole o line is new everyone the whole old Line's new ex and the running backs to but Devon dampar is still the quarterback and if we look at his stats we can see last year 40 for 64 525 six touchdowns and five that's it that's what he did now he also runs a good bit too so uh rushing you can see what he did uh he he scrambled around a little bit so he played five games decentish numbers I would say not terrible 62% passings not great but it's not bad so but I think he's going to have a long day tomorrow against Montana State so for me personally I'm going to take Montana State minus 13 and a half because I don't think there's a shot New Mexico with all that new attrition and the brand new form fives brand new o Lan nah n I'm taking Montana State I'm putting them in the money line parlay to join SMU and Florida State they're all going to hang out together that's going to be a fun little parlay got those three Montana State on the spread because there's plenty of places you can get this line um total I'm not going to mess with I don't know exact what's going to happen with those with the points being scored I just think Montana State wins by two touchdowns that's just my thoughts um see the batch up predictor I laugh at that 68% see what analytics is ESPN using here what is this what is this I don't know so just I can't I can't so all right so we're taking Montana state two touchdowns to win money line parlay nothing else in this one let's move on to that last game Delaware St/Hawaii all right first up last up whatever you want to call it we have Delaware state in Hawaii I mean it starts at midnight Eastern so it be the first game of Sunday I mean yeah is this is a matchup that is hilarious because for once the analytics makes sense but who is giving Delaware State a 1% chance to win this game somebody has been drinking heavily when they did this because if you look at Del War States record from last year you will see a whole lot of L's out there and nothing's there's a couple games with a seven but it really wasn't even that close let's be honest they beat Virginia Lynchberg which is below the next level down I think so it's just they don't have a logo it's just not that good so Delaware State not good at all henceforth wi the spread is 40 and a half if you had all Hawaii winning a game being favored by almost six touchdowns on your bingo card for the start of the Year congratulations you win because 40 and a half for Hawaii at home is crazy against anybody anyone now Delaware state is not anybody they are just quite terrible yes but I just don't know like you can't even get a money line here that's cra crazy so let's look at Hawaii a little closer we can see their depth chart they pretty much have their whole offense coming back pretty good that's what you want to see mainly their quarterback I like to look at the most you can see what he's done in his three years at Hawaii 332 525 3500 yards 26 touchdowns 14 picks last year pretty good season overall can't complain great season so uh let's you can see the defense itself is only springing in one new one a lot of nudy if you will they're going to be a they're jeal they're there but are they 40 points better I don't know let's dig a little let's look at the stats a little bit so they do have UCLA next week uh delare say I'm not putting your stats up sorry sorry no you're FCS I can't do it you're barely FCS so Hawaii uh they were 20.6 points per game last year 277 passing only 73 rushing that's not that good you went five and eight for a reason because you got to be able to run the ball a little bit too 350 total is 90th out of all the teams third down percentage was middle of the road seconds per play 52 for 52 defense is where it fell apart 33.3 points allowed they allowed fourth down percent was 46% that's not good that's not going to win you games guys you got to do better than that turnover margin was almost last at minus8 per game and then penalty yards middle the yard so Hawaii they're going to they're going to win this game easily do they win by 40 I have no clue I don't am I degenerate enough to put actual money on this game probably yes probably am so but what do I want to do I have no clue this is going to be one of those ones where I kind of want to watch the a little bit of it like I'm going to be up it's it's e it's Saturday football I'm going to watch it so I might live bet this then again I might pass out before it even starts who knows so because it starts at midnight my time so I am not going to do a play beforehand I can't even take a money line if I wanted to so uh for this one this will be a live play see what happens see what the flow is maybe live bet it there'll be live betting throughout the other games too don't don't worry they're there so I I bet a lot in football so um yeah we'll just sit back watch this one I don't like anything I don't want to take a total and 40 is crazy I just I don't because this could be a easily 77 nothing game it it could be let's be honest Delaware states that bad so we'll pass on everything call a day right Future Talk there all right so that's the four games they' bro all broken down fun day football's back we love love it amazing now before we jump into the Futures let's do a little recap we got Florida state Georgia Tech I'm taking the under 55 or 56 and a half I'm sorry 56 and a half let me update my sheet real quick since it changed on me like that um and I'm going to take SMU 272 I'm going to take Montana State 13 and A2 all nice lines all pretty good around the numbers that need to be on the right side of them also I'm taking Florida State SMU Montana State and a parlay now this is my first season doing football on video but this is how I do parlays uh money line parlays you got to be a home team you got to be a home team I don't home field advantage means so much in college sports because these are 18 to 22 hell 27 year old kids out there so depending on how old you are out there but you got to think some of these environments like I mean everyone jokes about the the game the college football game about Penn State on a white out it's it's it's wild so you've all been to games you've seen it sometime he like how do they even you can't even hear your buddy next to you how you supposed to hear somebody in a huddle on the field it's so got to be at home we don't do no Road teams I don't care now typically it works out well to point where I have 15 20 leg now it's stupid I know I shouldn't have legs that long of money line parlays but I throw a unit on it and more two or was it like two I think it was two times last year it actually hit one unit turns to like 17 units it happens it's great we love that now you have games where like Flor not Florida um Washington State ruined it like three or four times in the last handful of years somehow they lose at home to a team when they're the 28 point favorite what how are they doing that I don't know but they do Washington state was good at it so yeah you know what I'm talking about you saw it so I will have one of those every single week because why not they're fun it's a unit who cares let's do that let's have fun so I do those they got to be at home can't be a rivalry game because you know weird things happen in roer games so um on top of that lots of plays for other games there will be live bets going on as well yester tomorrow I mean throughout tomorrow uh on top of that so let's jump into Futures I don't do too much in Futures how let go in and throw that out there now I did find this on FanDuel I thought it was cool because one I can't use FanDuel I'm in Florida I'm stuck with hard rock thanks but I did see this I looked at the other big slices to see what they do DraftKings don't let you do this but FanDuel will you can parlay up to nine different teams to actually make the playoff wow that's cool that's fun because you can take three or four from the Big 10 three or four from the SEC which you know is going to happen you know these two conferences the big boy conferences are going to get three or four teams in there you can take the ACC champ which is going to be one of three teams probably either Clemson Florida State or Miami and you can take the Big 12 champ which is probably going to be like Utah or some Arizona somewh one of those teams Oklahoma State and you could have fun put them together and I if you can get eight or nine teams in there you could probably get some really nice shoes for a half a unit one unit why not now it's football who cares it's fun you're going to tie unit the whole year for this sure it also gives you something to root for all the way until January that's fun too so uh when it comes to like fullon like betting on a certain team to like win the championship I don't like doing that because that's only one team's going to win and who knows what's it going to be so I personally like to to Heisman and I like to look at all the names and I like to see how they do in a game now that sounds weird that sounds wrong but that's what I like to do because you can often times get good value on somebody you watch the game you're like woo that dude's good you can go grab his odds before they move a lot of times the casuals haven't jumped in yet until the media starts blasting that person a lot of times you can watch that oh he's good did you know he's that good I didn't know he was that good well let me go check the odd oh it's plus 2500 I could throw a little money on him great and all a that 2500 become, 1500 then plus 1,000 hell you could even cash out get you a nice profit there's nothing wrong with cashing out don't let them fool you there's nothing wrong with it so you can get value on these things so there's ways out there different books different rules obviously I know but you can look at some of these and then also it's like fantasy football you can just pick somebody like if I want to follow Jaylen milro all season I could throw him for Heisman and watch him just have fun in washing his offense why not we can do that so just you little things like that but I like to wait until I see them play a game because I want to see how they do because a lot of times we got new lineman we got new receivers we got new coaching we got new offensive coordinators there a whole slew of things watch one game see how it works because you can still get the value now when you get you know maybe DJ comes out and just balls out tomorrow is he going to be plus 4,000 he might bump a little bit he might be 3500 but look at the different lines every site you got different numbers 5,000 here 2,000 here that is a crazy difference because every book is different you just got to be able to shop your lines the biggest thing is if you're doing one book you're doing it wrong you got to have multiple books to do this and so so next week's video I will definitely have more of a Heisman future look but I got to see uh well maybe two weeks I got to see the first games first so I keep forgetting week zero is a thing this four games then we get the big week next week so all this is there I don't do tooo much Futures but that's how I like to do it and I just want to talk about a little bit because everyone does it differently so I like to I don't want to blindly bet on people I haven't seen play in six seven months and also in their new systems like okay like for milro for example how's it going to look in theer system we don't know how is Cam war going to look in Miami we don't know we got to see how is nus meer going to look there's all these things that okay they're getting odds we need to see a play I want to see how you play first give me one game hell give me a half and I'll bet at halftime if you're looking great you know small things like that so that's what I do there uh I think that's all I'm going to do on Futures we talked a good bit I've been rambling uh we got baseball still going on baseball will continue to go on football will go on NFL will come out this weekend the next the first NFL video is going to probably be Sunday and is going to be focused again on Futures but we're going to look at bit a little bit the lines and go for that so on top of that I appreciate you watching drop a like subscribe um I appreciate you being here it's going to be a fun fun season so we'll see you then peace