Why Corbin Burnes Is SCREWING Himself Over

when the Baltimore Orioles traded for Corbin Burns before this season the man who'd been the Ace in Milwaukee for the last few years there was a shift the tide truly started to be turning in Baltimore but mostly because of what happened just two days before this trade the official sale of the team happening being transferred to new owner David Rubenstein something that mirrored the Met sale it was basically Baltimore's version of getting Steve Cohen after so many frustrating years of the previous ownership group they had and I think this was just a coincidence I don't think the Rubenstein sale actually had any impact on the burn trade and yeah it makes sense I mean it was a trade it had nothing to do with spending money but it was still a good momentum shift for the franchise coincidence or not new owner a guy who really seems to care about investing into the team money's not really as important to him and the O's have a new ace it was a big move and it's proven to be a big move considering how the season has gone at least until kind of lately through the first two and a half months Burns was pretty comfortably the best starting pitcher in the American League and maybe even in all baseball through those first two and a half months he hadn't had any starts allow more than three runs he was everything you ask for from a starting pitcher above and beyond and even through the rest of June and all of July Burns was really good being named an All-Star for the fourth straight season but then has come August and things have just not been the same but to just say that wouldn't be enough it's changed a lot in such a way that's enhancing his overall declining Trends even more and because of this Corbin Burns may be screwing himself out of millions of dollars in the process but let's go to the origin of Corbin hey that kind of rhymed [Music] anyway in 2019 Burns was awful giving up 17 home runs in just 49 Innings just to give some context on how many home runs that is in that span of time Burns has averaged just about 20 homers the last three years and an average of about 180 Innings pitched his strikeout stuff was actually great but he gave up almost 20 homers in four times less innings in 2018 than it's been the last few years just straight up getting crushed out there but 2020 was when he started finding himself on the mount he appeared in 12 games nine of them being starts and was great his strikeout stuff was even better but more importantly in more than 10 Innings pitched than he did in 2019 throwing about 60 in 2020 Burns allowed just two home runs two 2020 was a very forgettable year for many reasons for a lot of teams and players but Burns obviously figured it out and this was a preview for what would end up being one of the greatest pitching seasons in history in 2021 when he had the lowest erra in the league and he had the lowest ER while getting unlucky because his fit which which is basically your erra if luck isn't factored in that's what that stat is was almost an entire run less than that he pitched 167 Innings allowed just seven home runs which is an average of4 home runs per nine innings also the lowest in baseball to go with a 12.6 strikeouts per n ratio the lowest in baseball winning the saong award and getting MVP votes there's no getting better and more dominant really than what burns did in 2021 so regression is always of course expected afterward but he hasn't stopped being good you can argue in ways he was even better in 2022 because he threw almost 30 more Innings that's always valuable he also struck out the most hitters in the National League and E was still under three there were a lot of great candidates for the award that year so he finished all the way in seventh in the sa young voting but was still awesome he was good again in 2023 but this was when some of the trends we see today happening started which we'll get into but he wasn't far off from 200 Innings again it was overall very solid year but one that didn't end well with the Dbacks tagging him for 30 home runs in the first wild card game the Brewers get swept out of October and that was it for his time in Milwaukee again his Orioles career started off hot this year it has mostly been great but August was not let's go through it the first game was kind of weird Burns started out all right nothing bad but then a couple of hits stolen bases and error of his own led to some runs for Cleveland Burns even got bailed out by the Umpire multiple times but it didn't help the final Blow from happening a three-run bomb off the bat of Josh Naylor after Burns tried to drop a two change up in the zone the Orioles won this game and burns was credited with the win but it of course was not a great start at all his next start was much better in terms of a statline he gave up three runs in six Innings on just four hits even taking a no- hitter into the fifth inning but that's when things started to unravel and you'll start to realize if you haven't already that the Rays like Cleveland had fun taking bases throughout Burns's start and like the Cleveland game the Rays scored runs from it but even more blatantly this time and although it was an overall good start for burns just looking at the box score there was some really good contact against him this game some that went for hits but also some that didn't that just go for outs but that's of course not ideal and sustainable to be successful and his next three starts have proven exactly that next up back home against the Red Sox and Boston just absolutely feasted on burns they didn't have to swipe any bags to get something going the first inning was a little unlucky there was only one truly well-hit baseball that led to an RBI double but the other runs scoring hit was a popup striking out two to end the inning he'd give up a rocket to ran for a double in the second and then comes the third when everything started to unravel a bit a rocket up the middle for a hit Des then gets another extra base H but there's no unluckiness to this one smoking it out for a two-run homer that's four runs off Burns it would only unravel even further in the fourth after a couple of walks Connor Wong just grounds it where they ain't before masaaki Yoshida smokes one out for yet another home run that's eight off of Burns and what would end up being just a four inning outing next up Houston Burns has a haircut since the last we saw him let's shake the up and this start not great actually a quick first standing another 1 two 3 second with a Punchy to end it a walk to start the third that's immediately followed by a double play then a strikeout looking three solid Innings to begin until a lead off walk to altu to begin the fourth and instead of a double play following Burns who tries to pick out tuve off at first ends up boing on the second attempt yordon then Rockets one in a right field to score him with two outs Ben gaml Rockets one in the center two to nothing after a scoreless fifth Alex bregman gets jammed but Lofts it for a hit to left Force out to Second for an out there's now two outs Runners on the corners and Ben gaml comes through again then a bunt drop that burns throws down the first Basel line and into right field another run scores before Shay witcom smokes one in the center for two more that's now six runs off Burns he's taken out and it was at this moment that he knew God damn it an I talk Studios video is coming and hey maybe there wouldn't have been if he came back to dominate the Dodgers his next start but that didn't happen even though he ended August off with just one earned run in LA he was much worse than that it's Otani and decoy Bobblehead Day at the Ballpark everyone is happy and unfortunately for burns Otani read the room hitting a home run in the first inning a couple of rockets including another by shohi would begin the third to set up a Muki bets RBI single mooki and Shi swipe a couple of bags teoscar Hernandez tries to kill Otani at third for some reason but then straightens it out for a three-run blast five runs off Birds they'd eventually get another to make it six after another Shi rocket for a fielder's Choice only for Otani to go from first to Third run another steel and also a wild pitch this time then home on a grounder six runs off Burns but only one of them the Otani first inning home run was earned that doesn't stop the reality that burns gave up more hard hit balls including a three-run bomb the Dodgers also racked up four stolen bases against Burns which as you can tell by this point is a trend and not a good one Corbin Burns now has the most stolen bases allowed in a single season in orel's history he's allowed 37 of them and is on Pace to allow 44 which would only be less than two pitch in MLB this Century he's allowing tons of stolen bags hard hit balls and although his ra is still good his FIP is higher just like it was last year his strikeout numbers are also continuing to decline This Time by a whole strikeout Less on average than last year year that was already down for him in strikeouts so none of this is promising for someone about to hit the free agent market and undoubtedly looking for a big payday Scott Boris is his agent and you got to think he'll have similar issues to the ones he had this last off season with other clients of his pitchers in general are less appealing than they once were to have longterm because of the insane Rising probability elbow issues will come up so that's number one but also Burns has been in decline in almost every aspect for a couple years now he's still a good pitcher but we seem to be far removed from his 2021 version someone who was more of a strikeout machine who didn't allow many base runners he seems to be getting more lucky now than ever and even with that luck he's not doing well lately the month of August saw burns with an RA over seven five homers allowed hitters hitting over 300 and again this is with things like the tasa Hernandez Homer not being counted toward his earn runs you could have made an argument that even with his declining strikeout ability Burns was still having a season that could warrant a$ 200 plus million do contract but now after this last month that's not at all a valid take and it's hard to see any team willing to give him what he and Boris will likely be looking for I can maybe see a high aav a high annual salary like maybe a three or fouryear deal worth 90 or $120 million so 30 a year just paying him good money in the short term but I most definitely cannot see any team willing to go a lot of years for burns for that amount it's just not smart when you see the way things are trended let me know your thoughts and thank you for watching