in this video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map if the polls underestimate Trump again just like they did in 2020 I mean look at a state like Wisconsin for example the polls said Biden was going to win by 88.4% in the end he won the state by 0.63% and so today we want to take a look at the 2024 polling and adjust for the 2020 error to show where K Harris and Trump stand if the polls once again underestimate support for the former president we're going to begin on the west coast and move our way East starting off in Washington where polls overestimated Joe Biden by 3.8% in the last election today K Harris leads by 11.3% and adjusting for the 2020 error she'll be on track to winning the state by just 7 and a half percentage points Oregon is barely going to be a likely Blue State however things get even worse in Oregon where the vice president is ahead by just five points in the only poll conducted between her and Trump and in 2020 polling overestimated Joe Biden by 5.2% this means that if the polls are just as wrong this time again Trump would actually win Oregon by a 0.2% margin so it's going to be a tilt Red State and in California K Harris's home state the polls were spot on four years ago they were 100% correct. Joe Biden's predicted 290 Victory and so we're just going to take clay Harris's margin right now at 24.5 the Golden State will be the only solid blue state bordering the Pacific moving on to the first competitive State on the map we have Nevada a state that hasn't gone red since 2004 KL Harris currently leads by 0.6% but that's not going to be enough Donald Trump was underestimated by nearly three points in the last election and if we adjust for the error he'll be on track to win Nevada this time around by a 2.3% margin the silver state is barely going to be lean red but considering that this is a state that Republicans haven't won since 2004 a state that Trump lost in both of the last two elections by 2.4% this would be a pretty impressive Victory Nevada is a state that is becoming more and more favorable for Republicans it recently elected a republican governor in 2022 and we're probably going to see a lot more gopop victories here in the coming years in neighboring Colorado we recently got our very first poll from the state KL Harris leads by 15 points and Colorado is one of the few states on the map where Joe Biden was actually underestimated in the last election he was underestimated by just 1% Joe Biden was supposed to win Colorado by 12.5% in the end he won it by 13.5 percentage points and so today with KL Harris leading by 15 points in the only poll we have this is not a good poll morning consult is a left leaning poster and it was a pretty small sample too but based on the data that we have Colorado is going to be solid blue while down in New Mexico Republicans were overestimated by 0.1% but it's not going to do too much to the polling average as we only have one poll it shows Harris leading by 10% and she'll be on track to win by 10.1% as a result of the adjustment New Mexico is going to be likely blue although in the end I totally expect both of these states to be significantly more competitive down in Texas we have 40 crucial electoral votes for Donald Trump and basically every single Republican nominee needs Texas without Texas it gets a lot harder for the GOP in 2020 it seemed like Democrats might have had a chance at winning the state in fact polling said that Joe Biden was only going to lose the Lone Star State by 1.1% this would have been the most competitive election in Texas going all the way back to basically the last time that they lost the state which was 1976 every Republican has been able to win by two points or more over the last nearly 50 years and so today Donald Trump leads by 7.3% he was underestimated by 4.5% in the last election and this will bring his adjusted margin up to 11.8% Donald Trump is the clear favorite in Texas it is not going to be close the state will be likely in favor of the GOP while many of these states here in the middle of the country Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district which currently is going to be tilt blue along with Kansas and Oklahoma most of the states here in the middle of the country are all very easily going to go in favor of Donald Trump we also have Alaska which is going to be solid red while Hawaii will be safe for kamla Harris before I continue only 17.7% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates moving up to the Midwest this is going to be a critical region and this is the region where the polls get it wrong the most this is why Hillary Clinton only went to Wisconsin once in the last 6 months of the 2016 campaign nobody thought that the states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania which had gone blue reliably for three decades before Clinton's election were going to be even competitive but in the end Trump came out surprised everyone and won all three of these states and these states are the ones that won him the election in 2024 Donald Trump has to win just one out of these three and he basically locks KL Harris out so we're going to begin Up In Minnesota where the polling overestimated Democrats by 2.1% in the last election KL Harris today leads KL Harris currently leads by 5.5 in the polling average this is despite her running with the state's literal Governor Tim Walls who is a relatively popular governor and so with the adjusted margin she's only on track to winning the state by 3.4 Minnesota is barely going to be lean blue in Iowa the polls really underestimated Trump by a significant amount in 2020 by around 7 to eight points we don't have any 2024 polls from Iowa though but considering just how much Trump was underestimated in the last election we are going to place it in the solid red column while Illinois is going to be likely blue and Indiana solid red with an intense election upon us I highly recommend ground news just go to ground. news4 / elction time click the link in the description or scan the QR code using my link gets you 40% off the Vantage plan the same plan I use for unlimited access to all their features moving up to Wisconsin which criminally overestimated Joe Biden in the last election by around eight whole percentage points today KL Harris leads by 1.8% in the state she is boosted by the fact that Wisconsin does neighbor Minnesota the home state of her running mate however if you compare Harris to where Clinton was in 201 16 Clinton right now was leading by four points in September 8 years ago and she ended up losing the state in 2020 Joe Biden was leading by 6.5% and he barely came out with the victory just on10th of what the margin said in the last election at this point in September and so KLA Harris today her 1.8% lead is most certainly not enough for her to actually win the state if we adjust for the 2020 error Donald Trump is on track to win Wisconsin by a whopping six percentage points it's not not even going to be close in Michigan Democrats were overestimated by 5.1% and polling today shows Harris on track to win by 1.2% again compare this to where Clinton was in 2016 and Biden in 2020 this 1.2% margin simply isn't going to cut it Donald Trump is going to win by 3.9% if we adjust for the error another very comfortable State going in favor of Donald Trump falling in the lean red category polling in Ohio was basically just as inaccurate as it was in Wisconsin Joe Biden was overestimated by 7.2% Ohio was supposed to be a onepoint race according to the polls but in the end Trump won the Buckeye state by eight times that margin and considering that he leads in the polling today by 9% adjusting for the error in the last election he'll be on track to win by 16.2% Ohio is going to be solid red just like Iowa in Pennsylvania the polling right now actually shows a tie compare this to where Clinton was in 2016 she led by 6.2% in September Joe Biden was ahead by 4.3% and again Clinton lost Pennsylvania Joe Biden barely won and so with the polls having overestimated Biden by 3.5% in 2020 Donald Trump today is on track to flip the Keystone State and Win It by a 3.5% margin in the Northeast most of these states are going to be be solid or likely for the vice president Vermont Massachusetts Maryland the District of Columbia and the first district of Maine all solid blue while Connecticut Rhode Island New Jersey and Delaware are going to be slightly more competitive the second district of Maine is going to be likely read and so beginning with the Empire State of New York this is the first state we're going to take a closer look at in New England this is a state that Joe Biden was supposed to win by 30 points he eventually won it by by 23 and considering that KL Harris only leads by 14 points according to the only poll that we have so far her margin will go down to 7.7 Point Cent if we adjust for the last election's error the empire state will be likely blue just nearly over that 7po threshold in New Hampshire Democrats were overestimated by 3.7% KL Harris currently leads by five and so with the with the adjusted margin she'll win by just 1.3% New Hampshire is very competitive in 2016 we saw Donald Trump get within half a percentage point of winning the Granite State against Hillary Clinton and so once again New Hampshire is going to be a tilt Blue State and finally up in Maine the two votes that come from the atlarge results in 2020 Joe Biden was overestimated by 3.9% he was supposed to win by 14 points but he eventually won by nine the latest polling in Maine has Harris up by 13 and now now this is some pretty bad polling this University of New Hampshire poll has haris up by 17 there are so many things wrong with this but we're just going to roll with it for the purposes of this video with the adjusted margin she's going to win by 99.1% she would still do better than Joe Biden in the last election which is almost impossible considering Joe Biden won Maine by three times the margin that Clinton won it by in 2016 Clinton won it by 2.9 Joe Biden won it by 9.1 and so Hillary Clinton barely won it Joe Biden did better and kamla Harris is probably going to win Maine by somewhere in the middle definitely not by 9 and now to finish off the map in the Southeast most of these states are going to be solid red Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia and South Carolina are all easily going to go to Donald Trump meanwhile up in Virginia KL Harris leads by 5.3% but Joe Biden was overestimated by 1.7 and so this means that her lead will cut down to just 3.6% Virginia is definitely another key state for us to keep an eye on it can definitely get very very competitive in the next 8 weeks in North Carolina Donald Trump was underestimated by 3.3% according to the polls from the last election he was supposed to lose the Tar Heel state but in the end he won it for a second time and today he is on track to winning it for for a third he leads by 0.1% in the polling average and with the adjusted margin he's on track to win by 3.4% another comfortable lean Red State going in favor of the former president in neighboring Georgia this is one of the few states where the polling was actually relatively accurate in terms of all of the Swing States Joe Biden was only overestimated by 1% he was supposed to win by 1.2% but he eventually won the state by 0.2 % and so today with Donald Trump leading by 1.3% the adjusted margin will bring him up to a plus 1.3% and so the peach state is going to be the only tilt Red State on this map besides Oregon which in all honesty of course KL Harris is still the favorite there but just for the purposes of this map and proving the point that Donald Trump is severely underestimated every single time it is also going to be the other tilt red state for now and finally in Texas this is another state that Biden was supposed to weigh heavily on based on the polling just like North Carolina but he ended up coming up short in fact he did worse than Clinton from 2016 she only lost Florida by 1% Joe Biden lost it by nearly four and so Florida overestimated him by six points last time considering that Trump today leads by 6% in the state with the adjusted margin he'll carry it for a third time by 12 percentage points and so if the polling is as criminally incorrect as it was four years ago Donald Trump is on track to win 320 electoral votes to KL Harris's 218 thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below