Tropical Depression 1C Forms In Pacific And Tracks Toward Hawaii

AUGUST 22ND. THE PARADISE OF THE PACIFIC. IT'S OUR FOCUS AS THEY'RE PREPARING FOR SOME POSSIBLE TROPICAL TROUBLE. NOT ONE, BUT TWO AREAS IN HAWAII FOR MAYBE DIRECT IMPACTS. FORMERLY 91 E, NOW INVEST 90 C, SO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. IT'S NOW CROSSED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. AND IT'S MOVING TOWARD HAWAII. RIGHT NOW, A THOUSAND MILES EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AND MAJOR HURRICANE GILMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THIS MORNING. NOW, A BEAST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN ON THE ISLANDS, TRIGGERING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SO WE'RE FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVITY. AND WHEN WE LOOK AT 90, SEE THAT 90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THIS HAS BEEN INCREMENTALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. OR, I GUESS I SHOULD SAY, THROUGHOUT THE PAST 24 HOURS. AND CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS PRETTY HIGH. THE FOCUS THAT WE HAVE FOR HAWAII AND WHAT THIS MIGHT DO, WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES A NAME, I MEAN, YOU PREPARE FOR AT LEAST SOME RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS IN HAWAII. YEAH, WE TALK ABOUT THIS ALL THE TIME. RIGHT NOW WE'RE GETTING TO THAT POINT OF DESIGNATION. MAY NOT MATTER SO MUCH AS WE WATCH IT GET CLOSE TO HAWAII. I MEAN, GRANTED, THERE'S A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TROPICAL STORM AND MAYBE A STRONG HURRICANE, BUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE IMPACTS FOR HAWAII, IT WOULD BE RAIN AND WIND. AND WE NOW HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFFICIALLY. YEAH, I THINK THAT THAT'S WHAT MATTHEW'S TELLING U. OKAY. YEAH. THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. YEAH. OKAY. 31 AS LONG AS. YEAH. THAT FOR, FOR THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ONE. SEE. YEAH. THE UPDATES COME RIGHT AT 11:00, WHICH IS RIGHT WHEN WE'RE JOINING ALL OF YOU. SO THIS JUST COMING IN, BUT, YOU KNOW, A NOTABLE UPDATE AS WE GET THAT ON. YEAH SO WHAT DOES THAT DO? I MEAN ASIDE FROM IT BEING ONE SYSTEM THAT'S ORGANIZING, WE CAN NOW HAVE ADVISORIES THAT WILL BE ISSUED FOR HAWAII. WE'LL ALSO HAVE A CONE COMING OUT SHORTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT SINCE 2019. MARISSA 2019, FIVE YEARS. THE LAST TIME WAS OCTOBER OF 2019 THAT WE HAD A TROPICAL STORM IN THE BASIN. SO HAWAII, HONOLULU HAS BEEN WATCHING THIS VERY CLOSELY, NOT JUST TODAY BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AND THOSE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. SO TRACK IS GOING TO BE VERY IMPORTANT. MATTHEW BLUE UPDATING THE GRAPHIC ONE. SEE ONE SEE. AND AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN MAYBE THE NEXT DAY OR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT, AND ESPECIALLY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT WE'VE USED, THERE'S GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE. AND AS IT DOES, THIS IS A FIRST LOOK AT THE CONE. HERE WE GO. OKAY EXCUSE ME. YEAH. LOOKING LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. IT'S THE FIRST IT'S THE FIRST THINKING THAT WE HAVE NOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER, WHICH IS BASED OUT OF HONOLULU. NO LONGER IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN MIAMI IN CHARGE. IT'S NOW OUT OF HONOLULU. SO HANDING IT OFF AS IT CROSSES BASINS. INTERESTING TO NOTE WHEN YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT IMPACTS TO HAWAII, MAYBE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT IN THROUGH SATURDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. EXCUSE ME. I MEAN, MAYBE NOT EVEN FRIDAY NIGHT, MAYBE SATURDAY MORNING AT THE EARLIEST, BUT THAT WOULD BE RIGHT NOW. YOU HAVE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BIG ISLAND WITHIN THAT CONE. AND REMEMBERING THE CENTER COULD TRACK HERE, IT COULD TRACK HERE. GENERALLY, WE'RE LOOKING AT IF IT STAYS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONE. YEAH. THAT THAT CONE REPRESENTS THE, THE UNCERTAINTY HOW AND ONLY TWO THIRDS OF THE TIME DOES THE CENTER FALL WITHIN. NOW IF WE'RE LOOKING AT HOW GILMA HAS BEHAVED IN THE PACIFIC, IT'S A PRETTY COMPACT STORM. THERE'S THERE ARE QUESTIONS THAT REMAIN HOW THIS IS GOING TO EVOLVE. HURRICANE HUNTERS, THEY THEY ARE IN ROUTE. THERE WILL BE MORE FLIGHTS THAT WE HAVE SCHEDULED. BUT ALSO WITH THIS NEWEST UPDATE THAT WE'VE GOT NOW WITH TD ONE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER ONE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MARISSA, WE'VE GOT A POWERFUL GILMA. THIS IS ALREADY FROM THE LATEST ADVISORY TO CURRENT AND THE FORECASTS AND EVEN THE MEASUREMENT OF PRESSURE THE WINDS. ALL THIS IS BEING DERIVED BY SATELLITE. IF THERE ARE SOME BUOYS. BUT THIS IS A PART OF THE PACIFIC BASIN WHERE THERE ISN'T A TON OF DATA. SO LOOKING AT THIS FROM SATELLITE AND IT WAS CLEAR FROM THE STRUCTURE ITSELF, ESPECIALLY THE EYE, THIS THING WAS SO ORGANIZED. IT'S NOW ON A BORDERLINE CAT THREE, CAT FOUR HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR IT TO WEAKEN. BUT THAT'S A THAT'S A FEAT THAT WE'VE SEEN OUT OF GILMA AND OVER PERFORMER. I MEAN, YOU'RE JUST FIVE MILES PER HOUR AWAY FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE THERE OR EXCUSE ME, A CATEGORY FOUR, I SHOULD SAY IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE. NOW AND IT'S THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. BUT YEAH, YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT GILMA HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO IN THE BASIN. AND THE OTHER THING YOU POINTED OUT TOO IS THAT AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE CONE. NOTICE IT'S HEADING TOWARDS HAWAII, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO CALL ANY IMPACTS AT THIS POINT, EL NINO LAST YEAR AND I WAS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT BECAUSE IT IS WARM IN THE PACIFIC BASIN AND LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME, I PULLED UP SOMETHING FROM NOAA. TALKING ABOUT THE PACIFIC AND THE BASINS HAVING A FEVER. YEAH RIGHT. AND NOT SURPRISINGLY SO COMING OUT OF AN EL NINO, THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT FIVE AND A HALF DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE BASIN, AND IT'S STILL QUITE WARM AS WE ARE IN AN ENSO NEUTRAL. YEAH, WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN THE TRANSITION. WELL, WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE TRANSITION TO LA NINA YET. AND COMING OFF OF WHAT WHAT WAS A STRONG A SUPER EL NINO. IT'S REFLECTIVE. PERHAPS THERE'S STILL SOME LINGERING EFFECTS. YOU YOU GENERALLY WILL HAVE MORE STORMS THAT COULD POSSIBLY