The next megathrust earthquake, when?

Japan, 10 years ago. One of the most powerful earthquakes ever recorded. The worst earthquake in 140 years. An all-devastating tsunami and a nuclear disaster. In total, at least 18,000 people die. And it's the most expensive natural disaster of all time. Chaos takes over the ordered land. The tsunami is so strong, it's dragging entire houses with it! And ... ... we have to wait for the next mega earthquake, but where? In the US state of California, on top of the world famous San Andreas Fault ... ... they brace themselves. For the next 'Big One'. The likelihood of LA being hit by 'The Big One' in the next 30 years is inevitable. The so-called 'Big One' will eventually hit Southern California. It's not a matter of if, but when. When the big quake hits, it will begin its journey here, right beneath where I'm standing now. Hollywood is also sure. The earth will literally crack open. The next mega earthquake is in California. But don't be fooled. The real hit will be somewhere else. In this video we look back at the mega earthquake in Japan ... ... and look ahead to the next one, because the question is not if it will come ... ... but when. First a short refresher course on earthquakes. The earth's crust is divided into sections, earth plates. And there are cracks between those plates. Compare it to the seams of a ball. But because the interior of the earth is scalding hot, those plates move ... ... like a conveyor belt at the checkout. Very slowly, with a few centimeters per year. But if the pressure gets too high ... ... you get earthquakes. The amount of energy released during this process is expressed using the moment magnitude scale. That's the number that you always get. It looks like report marks, but it doesn't work that way. One whole point up on the scale means an increase of a factor of 30. So an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 is thirty times stronger than one of 6.0. And one of 8.0 so already 900 times. Example. Eastern Turkey, January 2020. An earthquake of 6.8. Dozens of people were killed and hundreds of buildings were destroyed. Compare that with the 2015 Nepal earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.8. There, thousands of people were killed and hundreds of thousands of houses were razed to the ground. A difference of one point on the scale. But it can be much harder. An earthquake of 9.0 or more, 27,000 times stronger than one of 6.0. Nepal even pales in this respect. I'm talking about mega earthquakes. Like in Japan 10 years ago. Magnitude? 9.0. A mega earthquake in the sea. So powerful they felt it in Beijing, Taiwan and Kamchatka. For comparison. Imagine if the epicenter, the site of the earthquake, was here ... ... then it would vibrate as far as Moscow, Reykjavik and Casablanca. Japan's largest island Honshu then shifted 2.5 meters to the east in one fell swoop. I really can't talk. Everything moves. Dangerous. Dangerous. -People run outside. It caused enormous damage to buildings, infrastructure, electricity ... ... there were leaks, fires, explosions, et cetera. And the quake wasn't even the biggest disaster. What followed was: He's coming, he's coming. The wave is coming. A wall of water between 10 and 20 meters high. A tsunami that raged on and destroyed everything in its path. Everything is flat. The houses are gone. I don't recognize anything anymore. Fukushima nuclear power plant was also destroyed, with a nuclear disaster as a result. Nuclear physicist warning of a nuclear reactor meltdown. It was kind of a 'perfect storm'. Not through air, but through earth, fire and mostly... water. And not only Japan was affected. The tsunami crossed the entire Pacific Ocean within 24 hours. Well .... silent? This was across the street, 5,000 miles away, the west coast of America. Keep this in mind. First back to Japan, because there was actually also 'good' news. Hundreds of billions of damage and thousands of deaths, but it could have been a lot worse ... ... if the Japanese weren't so well prepared. With earthquake-resistant buildings, alert systems, survival kits ... High-speed trains that were immediately brought to a stop by sensors ... Evacuation plans, disaster exercises, lessons in schools, et cetera. If there is a major earthquake, what is the first thing you do? You must evacuate to an open area immediately. If you are inside, you have to go outside immediately. Move to higher ground. Turn off the gas immediately. I always have a power bank with me. All we can do is be well prepared. Earthquakes are part of our life. And this gigantic underground drainage system in Tokyo. The Japanese have known for thousands of years that they are on a ticking time bomb. That is a piece of historical awareness. Tsunami is a Japanese word for a reason. Okay, but Japan has just been hit, where will be the next mega earthquake? In any case it will be in this area around the Pacific Ocean, the Ring of Fire. With the most troubled earth plates in the world and 90 percent of all earthquakes. Also on top of the Ring of Fire is the San Andreas Fault in California. But: what I said in the intro ... Forget Hollywood. A mega earthquake of 9 or more in Los Angeles or San Francisco is out of the question. How do we know? At the San Andreas Fault, two plates slide past each other in opposite directions. This is called a transverse movement. That causes severe earthquakes and they know that like no other. The best known is the one in San Francisco in 1906. 7,8. And for example, two years ago, a lot further: 7.1. A lot of power, and yet it has been calculated that The Big One awaiting California ... ... can have a magnitude of up to 8.2. But make no mistake ... California will shake like never before and the damage is incalculable. But in a mega earthquake, two plates sliding past each other like San Andreas are not enough. A quake of 9 or more can only be released if one plate dives under the other. This is called subduction, it releases a lot more energy. Back to the Ring of Fire. Since the measurements began in 1900 ... ... there have been only five such mega-earthquakes, magnitude 9 or more. They were all in such a subduction zone. Such as in Japan, 2011. But also in Sumatra in 2004. And in the last century: Kamchatka, Alaska and the heaviest earthquake ever measured: Chile in 1960. New Zealand and Mexico are also regularly hit hard, with magnitude 8 or more. Do you notice anything? There is only one zone where it has been painfully quiet for centuries. In that area we are waiting for... The Cascadia Subduction Zone is 1100 kilometers long and is located here ... ... just north of the San Andreas fault. Cities like Seattle, Portland and Vancouver are on an even bigger time bomb ... ... than LA and San Francisco. But they haven't known that for very long. Since Europeans arrived here some 250 years ago ... ... there have never been any earthquakes worth mentioning. But before there were cities here... ... people already lived there. Stories circulated among the original indigenous inhabitants of a shaking earth and a huge tidal wave. Sometime around the year 1700. But those were dismissed as ... just Indian jive. It was not until the 1980s that scientific pieces of the puzzle begin to come together. Like here in this haunted forest. The annual rings showed that these trees died en masse at the same time ... ... somewhere around the year 1700. Death by saltwater poisoning. But more importantly ... ... geologists have started digging to analyze the soil layers. They discovered the same strange, aberrant layer of sand all along the US northwest coast. A layer of 10 centimeters of fine-grained sand. What is that sand doing here? It's a tsunami deposit. A series of waves from the great earthquake generating a tsunami... And that could be traced back to the year ... ... 1700. But the last missing puzzle piece came ... ... from Japan. With their historical awareness. Since the year 600, the Japanese have been keeping track of all earthquakes and tsunamis, down to the day, and even the time accurately. But: in more than 1400 years of history, there was one mysterious ghost tsunami ... ... that the Japanese could not explain. There was no earthquake, but there was a huge tidal wave. On January 26, at 9 p.m. in ... ... 1700. Remember when that tsunami crossed the entire ocean ten years ago? That was exactly what happened then, only the other way around. With that knowledge, geologists dived deeper into the American soil. Up to 10,000 years ago. And they found 41 of those layers of sand. Let's do some calculations. Dividing 10,000 by 41 is ... ... a mega earthquake every 243 years on average. But the last time was ... ... 321 years ago. Imagine living there. The mega earthquake, which could in principle come at any time, can have a magnitude of up to 9.2. That is 30 times as heavy as the worst possible earthquake above the San Andreas Fault. And in the sea. So they can count on a tsunami of Japanese proportions there. Or bigger. But the Americans are not as good prepared as the Japanese. 75% of the buildings, including schools and hospitals, will collapse. Bridges, tracks, airports will be destroyed. Fires, explosions, floods, dam fractures, oil spills, chemicals. No drinking water, electricity, et cetera. Seven million people are in immediate danger. But when exactly that will happen, nobody knows. Science is not that far yet. Professor of seismology Arwen Deuss explains this at the University of the Netherlands. She explains it with a ... You've all played with a ruler at some point, I guess. ...ruler. Check the link in the description. Long story short ... ... that's also the name of our new podcast ... ... while Japan is still recovering from the previous one, the next 'really big one' is lurking. Somewhere on this ring, in these zones. Especially here ... ... under high voltage. The question remains .... ... when.