Putin's offensive slows as Russian push risks 'culminating before Pokrovsk' | Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan

yeah we've seen the Russians continue their slow Advance on multiple fronts particularly on the PO RS front but also in other areas around Chas of Y uh that has slowed down in the last few days but they are slowly still advancing the question is whether will the Russian Advance culminate before they reach po or will it culminate in the battle for pockros it's very unlikely the Russians can do much more than that before winter this year hello and welcome to front line for times radio with Me Kate jaabo and today we are joined by Major General Mick Ryan Mick served with the Australian Army for more than 30 years and commanded units from Platoon to Brigade level he's a junk fellow at the center for strategic and international studies in Washington DC and his new book is called the war for Ukraine Mick great to see you again welcome back to front line thank you can we start by getting your assessment of the movements on the battlefield starting K with reports from both Ukrainian and Russian Force sources that kei's troops have started losing some of the ground They seized in early August how serious is the situation at the moment well I'm not sure that we call it a serious situation yet the ukrainians May well just be adjusting to more defensible terrain to go into a a longer term uh defensive regime there it's clear that they've really stopped expanding their Bridge head inside Russia and given president solinsky's recent comments that we'll be holding on to curse for a little while yet yet clearly the ukrainians need to find terrain that's more easily defended with as few possible troops whilst also imposing as many casualties as they can on the Russians how important do you think the operation is in KK for the ukrainians well certainly the ukrainians think it's important for several reasons whilst it's been a battlefield success the reality is it won't be a success until it translate into political and strategic outcomes the big out comes I think the ukrainians were after weren't just about Russian redeployments from the donbass what they were really hoping for is that uh the West might relook at this war slightly differently Embrace a different approach not just defend Ukraine but to help it beat Russia and to speed up larger quantities of supplies that is yet to manifest so until we see those political changes uh it'll be hard to say whether K is a success or not and we we talking um on Thursday morning UK time and it does feel that we could be on the Eve or or within perhaps days or hours of restrictions being lifted on using longrange missiles to strike military targets deep into Russia I mean as as we're speaking that hasn't happened yet but it feels like we have been here before as well um what move is The Right Move well the right move is to let the ukrainians strike the airfields they need to strike deeper inside Russia to reduce the amount of missiles their Fighters and bombers launched to reduce the amount of Glide bombs they launch at Ukrainian Frontline troops this but has both military and domestic reasons I mean these Russian longrange missiles are killing Ukrainian civilians every day but you're right we have seen this uh debate before we saw it right from the start of the war where the toad artillery would be escalatory and we've seen at every single time any consequential piece of equipment uh is lo to be Prov ided to the ukrainians none of it has escalated the situation it's always the Russians who have been escalating the situation as they continue to do so with the ranged new missiles and if we could just get your thoughts your assessment of the movements of the front line the dbass yeah we've seen the Russians continue their slow Advance on multiple fronts particularly on the pokro front but also in other areas around chv y uh that has slowed down in the last few days but they are slowly still a ing the question is whether will the Russian Advance culminate before they reach poofs or will it culminate in the battle for pockros it's very unlikely the Russians can do much more than that before winter this year and on your new book which I mentioned at the start you explore the Biden administration's lack of clear strategy towards the war in Ukraine what is the problem what has been lacking well the the big lack is an explicit strategy by the United States in how it's going to help Ukraine win in fact it's very difficult to find a senior us leader to say we want Ukraine to win as we saw in the um Trump Harris debate yesterday both were asked do you want Ukraine to win and neither of them said categorically yes so that's a problem um they have a an implicit strategy that Embraces building a coalition to support Ukraine and providing military assistant but it also includes you know not starting World War II and not seeing the war spill beyond the borders Ukraine um it's not a real strategy and defending Ukraine for as long as it takes is a slogan Not a plan so hopefully the strategy apparently that the Biden Administration has just presented to Congress which is classified but I'm sure we'll leak in the coming weeks provides a better way ahead a clearer way ahead for us support to Ukraine so are you feeling in in the coming what couple of months before the actual us election that this there you could be optimistic about strategy uh I think I'll stay on the fence about being optimistic about us strategy changing between now and when a new president is inaugurated in January next year I think a lot of people are watching the US election for the outcome even depending on who's voted in I don't think we're going to see any change in strategy at least till early January next year and we could well see a new administration of either color call for a review into US support of Ukraine so I don't perceive any change in US policy and therefore no change in NATO policy at least until early next year for the ukrainians that's a problem so on the subject o of the use of storm Shadows the US defense secretary Lloyd Austin when asked about permissions to use those missiles to Street strike deep into Russia at the end of the 24th Ukraine contact group meeting in Ramstein said it wouldn't be just one capability that will be decisive in this campaign I suppose he had to kind of fudge his response didn't he what else though would be needed to make things decisive as it were well all the capabilities together used at their full capacity is what will be decisive and at the moment that is not the case because the Americans are um limiting how the ukrainians use some of their weapon systems you know homar where they fire them into Russia long range strike systems whether it's British or or American um they came up with this excuse that the Russian bombers had been moved well it's not just bombers that fire these long-range missiles and blide bombs lots of Russian tactical aircraft use them and all of them are based pretty well within range of the weapons ukrainians can't use to strike airfields that's why they've developed all their own long range strike systems Iran now stands accused of supplying short range ballistic missiles to Russia which the US Secretary of State Anthony blinkin said could be used against Ukraine within weeks following ear reports a growing Alliance which threatens European SEC security is how he kind of sees it is there a danger of a dramatic escalation in the war in this way well I'd suggest that it's already escalated because of China's support North Korea's support and Iran's support all three are strong supporters of Russia indeed the NATO communic this year called China the key enabler of Russia's war against Ukraine so we're already facing this authoritarian quad um that is seeking to degrade the influence and the security of Europe and the United stat and we'll continue to see a range of efforts in Europe and in the Pacific for them to do so can you tell me a little bit more about these short range Iranian missiles and what it would enable Russia to do yeah these uh Iranian ballistic missiles have a range out to about 120 130 kilm so they're not Long Range Systems but what it will allow the Russians to do is to conduct strikes against uh Ukrainian military formations along the front line as well as Ukrainian infrastructure within about 100 km of the border and do that uh in cooperation with things like the Iranian drones that the Russians have been using as well as some cruise missiles um the Russians don't use these things in exclusion they generally use cruise missiles ballistic missiles and drones all together to confuse air defenses and make sure at least some get through and if these shorter range ballistic missiles were to be used um quite widely how would that uh what kind of capability would that give uh the Russians to strike deeper with its more longrange missiles what would it Target so what it does is allows Russia to continue at a more sustained rate its strikes with cruise missiles um but traditionally over the last year or so it's kind of pulsed for a little bit and then waited for a couple of months then pulsed a whole lot more what it will allow the Russians to do is free up of those cruise missiles for deeper strikes and to have more continuous strikes on Russian infrastructure particularly their power infrastructure in the lead up to winter so that is a serious concern then absolutely um if you're a Ukrainian you're already facing a pretty uh dim cold winter the Russians will be Keen to ensure they make it dimmer uh and colder for the ukrainians as we've seen in the last 48 hours they've sought to strike new uh Power Generation and transmission sites in Ukraine and I think we can expect to continue to see that you you said um that um in terms of the US strategy which is at the moment not public and we know very little about it but you you think it may leak out um what will you be looking for what will you be hoping that it actually details I think there's a few important things firstly I would hope that it's aligned somewhat with the victory plan that uh president I is briefing to uh American officials and probably to Nato officials in due course you'd hope there's some alignment they may not be exactly the same but they'd have to be aligned that's I think a really important part of the US strategy uh a second part is and I think importantly is it should provide a compelling Vision or purpose of the US support to Ukraine Beyond just defend Ukraine um it should provide a compelling purpose that can be exped to the American people and to other people around the world why it's important to support Ukraine and why it's important to defeat Russia in Ukraine they're two important things there'll be lots of other bits but they're the two key things I'll be looking for and you point out in your latest substack that the Biden Administration has shifted its focus in the war from a vision of total Victory to one where Ukraine is better postured for negotiations do you have an idea of where it lies at the moment yeah I think it's probably still there unfortunately and I think this was one of the Strategic objectives of K I mean that uh aspiration or lack of aspiration by the Biden Administration was based on the failure of the 2023 counter offensive they just assume the ukrainians were no longer capable of conducting offensive operations to liberate their territory K was you know it's highly risky and it's a big swing but it's also about showing the world that Ukraine can go on the offensive and that it is capable of liberating its territory and therefore we should retain the Strategic objective of returning Ukraine to its 991 borders just fascinating to know Mick and when you when you leared about that KK operation what your initial reaction was well you know initially like most people I thought it might be something similar to belgorod but within an hour of two once we I started seeing reports of conventional Ukrainian brigades it was very clear this was something quite different from what the ukrainians have undertaken before I think uh just about everyone was surprised because most of us thought the ukrainians would undertake large scale offensive operations next year not this year so yes it's risky but it was very audacious and it just shows that surprise is still possible in Modern Warfare US Secretary of State um Anthony blinkin and the British foreign secretary David Lamy they've been in ke uh this week to ask president zalinsky for his goals in the war and what the US can do to achieve them I mean it's kind of quite interesting the way this has all been done extremely publicly and you'd have thought maybe this had happened would have happened before yes I mean president zinsky has been talking about his victory plan you know since August so it's hard to credit that the Americans and the British haven't seen some version of this behind the scenes um but it is good to see both the British and American foreign ministers in Kev talking to their counterparts they'll be wanting to establish a relation a ship with the new Ukrainian foreign minister who's just been appointed as well as the advisers and others that are associated with the new foreign minister so I'd say the Ukrainian Victory plan they're talking about is just one of many topics that they'll discuss during their important visit uh you've written um that to have any impact the US must make defeating Russia in Ukraine a key objective um what does it need to do to make that happen well firstly it has to actually say it one Ukraine to win um and that seems to be hard for American politicians to say at the moment they need to say that and then what they need is a strategy that supports that that includes more Aid more quickly uh as well as NATO and other partners like Japan and Australia doing exactly the same more Aid more quickly with an explicit goal of defeating Russia in Ukraine not only is this good for Ukraine there's a strategic and moral imperative to do this but it's good for the west of Eastern Europe as well if we can defeat Russia and Ukraine they'll think twice about taking on NATO partners and China will also think twice about its aggression in the Pacific just you mentioned earlier that the debates between Donald Trump and Cala Harris notable on Ukraine and that Donald Trump when asked he avoided explicitly saying he wanted victory for Ukraine uh how I mean I suppose that's not that surprising is it but what do you think needs to happen between now and the US Presidential election to secure the best future for Ukraine yeah it was a pretty simple question which both candidates turned into very complex uh answers that avoided a yes or no which I think would have been appreciated one way or the other so what's required between now and then I think consistency at a minimum with what the US has already been doing for Ukraine uh additional Aid packages of the $60 billion that was approved by Congress only about quarter or less than that has been committed so far I think the Americans should speed that up uh but hopefully this strategy that the Biden Administration has presented to Congress does provide that compelling vision for ongoing us support and does provide some consistency in the US support for Ukraine as well as its leadership of the Ramstein group and and NATO's efforts overall in writing this book that you brought out that's been published in August I mean what other conclusions have you drawn from your research well what I really looked at was the the strategies that both sides have used for the war um and I think that both you know both Russia and Ukraine have adapted their strategy throughout the war based on how events have transpired but also looked at NATO and US strategies I think you know when we look at the big lessons about strategy and the war um firstly it's good to have one uh the fact that the US doesn't have one I think doesn't speak very well of the national sec security uh environment in Washington it's more crisis management at the moment on this it needs to shift away from that um but also I think many others are learning about how NATO and the United States make these kind of big decisions uh and they're learning both good and bad lessons China in particular is watching very closely and is learning a lot of lessons about how the West perceives red lines how it perceives escalation management and how it perceives nuclear weapons and their role in detering the West in intervening MC Ryan it's been great to speak to you thank you so much for your time you've been watching front line for times radio with Me Kate chabo my thanks to our producers today Lis syes and Morgan berdick and for you for watching if you'd like to support us you can subscribe now or you can listen to times radio for the latest news and in-depth analysis or go to the times.co.uk for now though thanks for watching bye-bye