Michigan Weather Forecast - Tuesday, August 27, 2024

hey good Tuesday morning my friends I'm live chief meteorologist Mark T grossa here with the m live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy and we are going to start this morning with a look at the sky from a big camera up in the sky this satellite imagery and what you get out of this is there's a lot going on around Michigan and especially just to our West with wiconsin Minnesota Iowa that's an upper air disturbance or two and you know if you factor that that area of disturbed weather should move over lower Michigan during the heat of the afternoon and evening it all spells a just a common sense forecast approach that thunderstorms will be developing later this afternoon and this evening and uh we look at the radar and you could see first batch of thunderstorms moved through the thumb sagov Valley area this morning diminishing now quite a potent thunderstorm individual thunderstorm out over Lake Michigan heading toward lington Bo I was just thinking what would the ride on the badger car Fair be like if they had to take that track from manit toak to lington or vice versa across through that isolated severe storm and then you see the storms in Wisconsin Northwest Wisconsin that's kind of what's time to produce thunderstorms in our area late this afternoon and this evening now we go to the Storm Prediction centers uh let's see we go to their Storm Prediction Center forecast for severe weather and basically what you see is the overall forecast for severe weather uh covers the yellow area covers all of lower Michigan I kind of have a logo over the tornado forecast hold on a second let me take that off there you go uh the green that's 2% chance of a tornado today Traver City to Alpena all the way down through Central lower Michigan down to kalamazo to about uh Oakland County so not really expected to be a tornado event but the severe thunderstorm damaging winds 15 to 29% chance is what that yellow means in lower Michigan for severe thunderstorm winds and for large hail but the storm prediction Center tells us that they can't really they believe there's areas in there that have a higher risk right now but they can't pinpoint where it is and I get that because uh we kind of have to see what happens back to our West before we could go with what's going to happen this afternoon but again in general terms we know that let me get the radar forecast fitting right here for you uh in general terms we know that if there are storms in Northwest Wisconsin in the morning they tend to be in lower Michigan in the late afternoon and evening so here's our high resolution rapid refresh model hey 287 strong this morning 292 thanks for joining me I'm chief meteorologist Mark Tor grossa on the M live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy so will say this no model I think right now is nailing exactly what's going to happen but we'll give you kind of a general scenario so this is our highresolution rapid refresh model and it takes late this evening and forms thunderstorms and then overnight into the southeast so remember that severe weather forecast is from 12: or I'm sorry 8:00 a.m. this morning to 8 a.m. Wednesday but what I would would say will happen is a line of thunderstorms will develop somewhere in lower Michigan and sweep Southeast it'll be late afternoon or early evening through the overnight hours here's another model we might go back to these models too and try to grab them hey good morning Pamela ham Hammond from Waterford dub Gasho thanks for watching good morning this morning and cool want sing good morning to you Chad ashr also thanks for watching so here's another model and we go into the afternoon this is 6 78 9 10 this is midnight it also does the same thing with at some point in the late evening a severe line of thunderstorms that shifts on through and tomorrow should be quieter could be an isolated shower but should be quieter tomorrow hey let me go back and see what the brand new high resolution rapid refresh good morning everyone 320 of us Manel molsby from paa Good Morning Kathy Callahan thanks for watching Patricia Marshall good morning and Dwayne lacking from Black River good morning to you all right so the highresolution rapid refresh finally latching onto that complex in Minnesota or in Wisconsin takes it into the up this evening diminishes is it and then we go to 8 9 10 11 midnight 1 two so keeps this fairly quiet let's see about this run here okay that's the run that shows it in the middle of the night and then I also want to try and grab another computer model that I like and this is in now this is the North America model and this is 8 tonight 9 10 11 so everything is pointing toward a timing of late afternoon through the overnight that is good news for severe weather because typically the storms weaken at that time at least weaken from what they would be in the late afternoon early evening now we're making our way through Wednesday and Thursday and it looks generally dry also I want to grab this I want to grab the the dupoint temperatures off of this newest run to see what the happens with the humidity uh Brenda Windsor nickel thank you so much for us coming here we don't have tornado sirens so I rely on you a lot appreciate you so much thank you very much no problem uh good morning Nicholson from South Haven and Rona Shane thanks for watching Brian Keith Howard also hello this is M live chief meteorologist Mark torr all right due points so what you need to know is when the dupoint is in the 70s very oppressive this is noon very oppressive I'm calling it New Orleans type of air look at the D points in Milwaukee and southeast Wisconsin in the low 80s I've seen the dupoint in Michigan at 80 degrees three times in 30 something years Lenora Dixon's dropping in from Louisiana so no difference for you this is tonight very very muggy I would call tonight the muggi of the whole period Then when thunderstorms come through they bring down cooler air a cooler pool Loft and they often drop the dupoint some it can often be temporary just for a couple of hours until the wind dies and the humidity kind of surges back but this is tomorrow noon so it would say Sagen you get some relief it would say Traver City you get some relief hotton Lake you get some relief uh the lady that has the cabin in central Michigan and dropping in from Louisiana you get some relief first relief you've probably had in a long long time and as we go in through the day on Wednesday to Wednesday night look a cooler pool of air drops Southward until the next storm system that will swing the humidity back now we got to talk about that oh I want to show you one more thing this is hey let's grab the latest too this is what we call Cape convective available potential energy when you see red it means the atmosphere is really unstable and we have the dynamite so to speak for thunderstorms so this is the uh Cape forecast for 5:00 this afternoon around uh 4,000 we call it Jewels per kilogram don't worry about the number just know that that's a lot of instability that means that if something can set off a thunderstorm boom ah Shannon Grahams quoting some uh Eddie Rabbit right yeah I Love a Rainy KN um so then as we go through the night this is midnight 1 2 in the morning the instability wains because the temperature cools and then of course with the lower due points tomorrow the energy for thunderstorms doesn't come back okay but now we move on to our next thing and there is a storm system I've been watching with you for several days now see it out in the Pacific nor Northwest on the map that's a strong upper air disturbance that will swing through on Friday Friday afternoon and evening a strong cold front with a lot of moisture hot and humid ahead of it that means we could have a widespread line of strong to severe thunderstorms probably a stronger setup than what we have right now because of the dynamic so this is Friday afternoon Friday evening yes the disturbance is centered to our North but we have enough of it h s sagging Southward that it picks up the upper level winds and can provide what we call the Dynamics for severe thunderstorms now we get into the weekend we're a little bit cooler in northwesterly flow and we get to Labor Day Labor Day what hey good morning Elliot hover thanks for joining us hit the share button if you can and so Labor Day we get a northwesterly flow but again summer nowhere near over in our warmer fall climate change Trend and uh next week looks gorgeous with some 70s and some 80s all right just a little bit closer of a look at Friday now so here we go Wednesday and Thursday probably dry Friday the south wind comes back here comes the humidity this is Friday morning into afternoon afternoon into evening look at where the cold front is located Friday afternoon and evening in the Heat and instability of the day it's located over lower Michigan more specifically over the southeast half of lower Michigan so we could have severe weather anywhere from Alpena to the thumb Saga Bay City Midland flint all the way down through Detroit and Arbor and all the way down to lanine kalamazo that sweeps through this is Saturday afternoon that's not too shabby temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s and this is Sunday a secondary coldfront comes through during the afternoon maybe sets off a shower and then this is Labor day and that is not too shabby it's not really summmer um but not hot uh and not wet all right so give you the specifics on that thanks for hanging with me folks uh let's see Matt Maher East Lancing drive by game time on Friday 700 p.m. we better go back we got an important weather question here folks okay so this would be up to 800 p.m. and then this would be 8:00 p.m. to midnight I would say you'll be very close to being uh dry by 7 p.m. low 90s today tomorrow remember that little bit of drier air comes in perhaps so anywhere you're in the 80s you're going still be hot and humid then it starts to sneak back northward back to Traverse City with the heat and humidity on Thursday and then on Friday ahead of the front a blistering and humid very humid for Anne Arbor and Detroit area Oakland County Flint saging on the thumb for Friday Saturday we'll take that upper 70s to low 80s Sunday still summery in the Southeast often times that warmth hangs on several days for you in an arbor and Detroit and Seline um Labor Day round 70 low humidity Tuesday 7s Wednesday 7s Thursday 70s to about 80s so we are getting into the time where we can have some fantastic weather my friends all right so thanks for joining me on the M live morning weather update brought to you by Consumers Energy Bonnie cook how's the ma Bridge Walk look like I think that's Labor Day and I would say it looks very nice probably 60s maybe a refreshing Breeze um and should be dry we'll keep you updated on this severe weather today and then also start to head toward Friday with severe weather and we'll watch the weekend weather you know it all now I'm live chief meteorologist mark torosa