6 Must-Avoid WRs Who Will Lose You Your Fantasy League

Intro just because wide receiver is a deep position doesn't mean you can't mess it up the wide receivers you take in rounds two through five will likely be the difference between beating your college buddies and taking home the ship in your home League or spending a couple hours in a tattoo parlor getting a last place ass tat for winning your League's toilet bowl and one of the biggest factors between winning and losing in fantasy football is avoiding wide receiver landmines in fantasy drafts so on today's episode of the regression of the meme podcast we have six wide receivers who we think are over valued and are losing bets against average draft position I'm your host Sean and I am joined by my co-host my good friends and fellow nor of ball Keegan and Aiden Keegan didn't mean to make you relive PTSD there in the opening but uh how you doing we'll talk offline but I've already submitted a report to HR so I'm not just for the listeners that's not a real story that's just fact or that's fiction not fact sorry it's fugazi it's fugazi it's not real yeah I'm doing all right I'm uh I'm sure that people will absolutely hate these takes it's been pretty consistent that the listeners are all over my Fades this year so it means I'm really right or really wrong no in between you're probably really right usually when you ball ball noers here either way you know comment get mad at us keep commenting it's it's good uh it's good for the program Aiden how you doing man doing good man I'm I'm excited to fade like my favorite fade ever um for me fade him once maybe twice maybe three times and I'm going to do it again because I I was so Vindicated last year that I'm doing it once again even at a cheaper cost so no I'm I'm ready to go you will not see me defend him this year not happening thank you um thank you I tried to I I tried to see there was a life raft in the water and and you just swallowed water instead it was crazy I'm afraid you know ball brother okay so the format of today's episode is simple we each have two wide receivers that we think are overvalued against ADP just because one of us is fading someone doesn't always mean the entire podcast is fading the the other player which you know allows us to hashtag embrace the debate all right so that that's where we're at um and we're going to go player by player in ADP order so just keep that in mind before we dive in though one thing we're a newer fantasy football Channel the three of us started this a Drake London year and a half ago it's been a ton of fun we're building our audience if this is the first time you found us YouTube suggested our video and you're you're enjoying the content we'd love it if you could subscribe to the regression of meem podcast we all have full-time jobs we do this as a passion project we one day hope we can turn this into something more but we can't do it without the support from all of you so hit the Subscribe button Keegan what what is it like comment subscribe what are the Gen like comment subscribe okay turn on the notifications hit that be nice to Keegan in the comments be nice to Keegan in the comments that's that's okay you can you could be mean it's all right I can take you sometimes all right so we're to kick things off I'm going to start things here with the wide receiver 12 the 24th player going off the board and that is Drake London I think Drake London is overvalued for two reasons one he's never done it before and he's being drafted like he has and two we don't actually know how good of a player he is not saying he's bad but we don't really know so taking a look at the fact that Dre Glen has never done it before in 2022 he finishes the wide receiver 43 in 2023 he finishes the wide receiver 44 he has failed to clear a, yards in both NFL seasons he has scored six total TDS in his NFL career for context Rashi rice scored seven TDS last year so rice has scored more touchdowns in one year than Drake London has in two years combined over the past few seasons the wide receiver 12 in fantasy has averaged around 16 fantasy points per game they've cleared 100 catches thousand yards and six plus TDS now I'm not saying it's impossible for lond to do that it's it's probably likely he clears a thousand yards it's probably likely he has a good season with Kurt Cousins and Zach Robinson but we don't know there there's a lot of ambiguity if that can happen and I'm not saying it won't but we're we're basically banking on his ceiling outcome in this instance and then in terms of how good of a player Drake London is I think London's a good player I thought he was a great Prospect you know some of the best wide receiver evaluators tend to agree like Matt Haron had him last year 68th percentile versus Man coverage 77th against Zone 81st against PR man all solid numbers however other indicators I like to look at don't always paint a really favorable light ESPN had him 74th overall in open score last season Open scores a pretty you know positively correlated metric to Fantasy success like ROV is has a player range of outcome Sim tool I like to use and he's favorably comped to courland Sutton and Mike Williams like his high is 17 his median is 11 his low is six he probably cashes out around 14 15 fantasy points per game ends up around like wide receiver 15 or 16 but drafting him at wide receiver 12 in front of Nico Collins dbo Sam Cooper cup Jaylen Waddles like Jaylen W they've all done it before like he's priced at his ceiling he basically has to score 16 plus fantasy points per game to hit home I'd rather just bet on someone who's done it before what are your guys's thoughts on Drake London I think you put it best it's like we're we're drafting him at his ceiling here um it's like three years in a row now we're just like ename by this like Prospect profile and like what could be but like I just can't do that in the second round um like I you know like you really want to start your draft with like you know things you feel a lot more confident in and not just like buying into this dream um don't get around like Kirk has been an amazing quarterback you know Justin Jefferson and London are you know different leagues but you know supported very highend uh wide receiver Play It's but it's hard for me to like squint and like buy into that and pick what call it 24 25 overall that's that's really expensive draft Capital it's like I'd rather buy into the alive dream you know it's pretty similar like this is a guy that produced in college this is a guy that was a more Elite Prospect so it's like it's just it's it's really risky um you know it's either going to like make or break your fantasy season like there's like like you don't miss on your second round pick and you know likely win unless you get pukan akua and Kieran Williams off of waivers you know it's like you're probably done so um I'm with you herey I'm really drafting I will play devil's advocate for the sake of the argument here and say we are drafting him again this High because we are projecting like the leap and Bounds Improvement their offensive environment will be with Kirk Cousins I mean even having like a steady quarterback like not even Kirk Cousins I'm trying to think of a good example you again if you plugged in Gardner Mitch into this offense that's still an improvement from sure what he had last year like the Baseline for quarterback Improvement for the Falcons is so low so anything is going to be better for Drake London but like we are drafting him again at a pretty high Mark like it's definitely down from last year and we're still doing this again though flirting with him as a top 24 draft pick top 25 but we're doing it because we're projecting the Improvement and the offensive environment for the Falcons Kirk Cousins should help him greatly um you would like to go back and see like he's done some blowup games before but there's not much there in his NFL career so far but yeah I can understand why people want to do it sometimes to win your leagues you have to go off projections and what you haven't seen yet in order to get an edge so that's the only Devil's Advocate thing that I'll say I think it's fair I'm not goingon to follow anyone that wants to take London and London definitely could be someone it's week one and he scores you know 30 fantasy points and I'm like damn I didn't draft enough Drake London like I'm willing to ad that can happen but at the same time I will happily take Tre lundon next year when he's had a great season it's kind of like the that's that's where I'm at but if he was going a little bit later I'd be scooping him up no problem we've got a mystery fade here Chris Olave for our second one um Keegan's been very mysterious but he he's gonna I have no idea this is so Keegan why don't you tell us uh who are fading here it's funny uh Aiden actually dropped his name when he said he would rather draft this player than Drake London but what if I told you that player that Aiden just mentioned that has played 31 career games has only eclipsed 20 fantasy points three times in PPR and has never eclipsed 20 points in a fantasy game and half PPR that wide receiver is Chris olve that's crazy The Man Behind the Mask oh no is Chris olve let's let's just talk about the Saints last year quietly eighth most touchdown scored in the NFL in 2023 eighth most touchdown scored in the NFL Chris was still the wide receiver 21 in points per game they were also fourth in plays last year and it still didn't amount to Chris ove having like this breakout wide receiver campaign this year their offensive line is made up of two run first offensive tackles with little to no experience that are going to start this year it looks like an absolute mess if you can't protect Derek Carr Al is never going to get the ball where specializes which on the downfield routes and if anything happens to Derek Carr their backup quarterback situation is abysmal and I'm not very confident that I want to watch the Saints games 17 times this year to Roo on Chris olve because it's going to be painful yeah and right now his current wide receiver ADP is wide receiver 11 last year's wide receiver 11 scored 17 fantasy points per game which would be three-point jump for a l like three points in fantasy points per game is a lot of fantasy points to beor scor last year coming off of eight touch eight the eighth most touchdown scored as a team they're going into this year projected by the betting markets to be the 24th highest scoring offense this year so in order for him to pay off his ADP you need them to be better than the eighth scoring offense in the NFL you need Derek Carr to have a clean pocket and you need Derek Carr to not be a checkdown Charlie to Alvin chra when said pocket breaks down the upside case for chrisv to me is like really hard to paint yeah I'd rather draft Drake London than Chris ol you know I can see a cleaner path for him because the offensive environment will be better but here are some of the players that are being drafted like after a lob Josh Allen hen leaport momes Herz Nico Collins dvo Samuel Cooper cup those are just the players that are being drafted like immediately after him another thing is his ad do is so insanely high and it's because he's really really good on those routes like he's fantastic deep threat he doesn't offer much as a yards after catch guy that's due to the type of routes he's typically running but if you're going to keep him at that insanely High a do like it doesn't give a lot of room for Yak it doesn't give you a like big opportunity for layup targets like they would need to have a massive offensive scheme change which they probably will they've had the same offensive coordinator since like Shawn Payton was there so they're going to get some changes in the Saints but Clint kubak is not does not have the cleanest record like as an offensive coordinator either like he's not like going to to save the Saints and the betting markets don't think he's going to save them either at least from an offensive perspective so you combine all that together and I'm looking at the wide receiver 11th off the board and I'm supposed to draft a guy who's only scored who's never scored 20 points and half PPR in his entire career and has only done it three times in 31 games in full PPR it is an extremely rich price yeah it's it's bizarre his usage is bizarre like he has an 80% success rate in reception interceptions on Slants and he ran only 133% of his routes or Slants like that doesn't make sense that everything he's good at they did I actually had like when you pull this up I was like this is what I had up too because it's it's puzzling like's silly his ad out silly for how good he is like underneath I want I don't want it to feel like I'm like this uh non Crystal lob guy because I'm not but if I'm going to have to make a pick at this point of the draft and I'm looking at like all the players are around him like that's a really hard pill to swallow like I know what Josh Allen's going to be I'm excited by the upside of Anan like you know Anan Al debate like I would never take olve over Anan if I'm staring at those two on the board in the draft it's like if I'm picking before that I'm not going to reach for him either because there is people like Garrett Wilson around there there is Drake not Drake London and ADP but like there is Kiren Williams there is Marvin Harrison Jr there is Devonte Adams you know like there's just so many good players going around a and I do think a change in offensive environment will help him but that's almost too much projecting for me where I have to like Galaxy brain and think what that could look like for Chris olve on some different routy stuff being used in different ways but I mean the Saints are gonna suck this year there's no other way to put it my screen no remember remember those random four touchdowns that Jimmy Graham caught last year he caught the one less touchdown than Chris La did last year it makes it makes no sense but I think with the LA too like he has done it over London like you look at these finishes he's been you know wide receiver 25 wide receiver 16 average 80 yards and almost 1100 or 80 catches and 1100 yards through two years so I think one I totally agree they're going to suck I don't need them to be good though like I don't need the Saints to be good for this to work I think Clint kubak Works a ton like they just weren't using him correctly it just felt like super stagnant offense it was very boring to watch but like I want to repeat that again eight most touchdowns in the NFL as a team like very quietly the Saints if they regress as a team you have to take so many touchdowns off the table for them are they all gonna go to start with though he didn't have many to start with he's just so I think he's due for positive he's du for that's another player that you just pulled up he is due for positive aggression but that's another player you just pulled up rash that is a really good late value pick who I think might be able to benefit from some new offensive scheme changes but I just don't want to watch the Saints for 17 games this year and maybe that's a silly way to fade somebody but I don't want to pay a premium either for a player who is being drafted way above what his expected outcome is and we just talked about Drake London like the picks you make in this round are important yeah I mean you had at Perry scor four touchdowns randomly you had Jimmy Graham scor four touchdowns randomly Shahed had five like it's just kind of it's kind of crazy like that he reminds me of early career DJ Moore where DJ Moore would always go over like a thousand but just no touch that's a good comp just no touchdowns like I think that's definitely good fantasy comp super talent but his his I like his he done at least those my thing over London like he he's done it he's done it twice really hasn't done anything yet um so like I get this skepticism with both like I skeptical too about a but if I had to pick one like I'm gonna pick the guy that's done it um especially when they're right next to each other in the rankings personally I I think it's fair though Keegan like drafting someone high who probably won't have good quarterback play always sucks it's never unless it's fun it's never yeah you have to like I mean think of why we take Devonte Adams where we take him is because like he's one of the best receivers like at least of our NFL watching career it's like you have to bake that and and I'm not saying Chris alive is a bad wide receiver but like some people get nod because they are Elite at what they do and I mean Crystal lob is such a good deep threat but I know it can be so much more than that and I could easily be like so wrong on this if they just do some simple offensive changes but it's kind of like Drake London right like you said if I'm wrong this year on Chris ove that's okay because I don't think he has much more to go than where he's being drafted at which is kind of the whole basis of my take they're very similar profiles I think a has benefited from probably a better quarterback in situation but man like yeah I I get wanting to draft the guys who score touchdowns over the guys who don't I'm not gonna fault you for that one um I yeah it's just math that's that's analytics um moving on to our next guy here my second fade and again Stefon Diggs we're going by ADP here wide receiver 19 he's the 39th wide receiver I mean 39th player off the board that is none other than uh Stefan dicks so like Keegan Keegan when we just recorded this hurts me when we just recorded our rankings episode Keegan was like I have Dell over Diggs and I was like dude I I already have Diggs pretty low so I was like I'd have to really drop him to have Dell over him just based off of ADP but I I think Diggs is overvalued for for three reasons like his face plant down the stretch in 2023 I don't think that was an aberration but a sign of age decline from week 10 to the fantasy championship last year like take a look at this it it it was B like this is this is Bleak what what happened here um he was the wide receiver 67 for that stretch finishing just behind Noah Brown and Juan Dale Robinson and just in front of obj and Greg dorch and like what makes this worse is he did this on wide receiver 38 usage it's like the usage wasn't good but he was super inefficient and like Matt Harmon believes that a lot of this happened because of his inability to win downfield so he essentially Harmon's saying he's not very good at this point in his career running Corner routes nine routes and post routes but he's he's really good at running slant routes so I think what happens here is is Diggs at this point his career on a new team is going to be the go-to slot wide receiver for this offense but I think Nico Collins is going to operate at The X and I think tank Dell is going to operate as the flanker so I think that limits his upside I think it I think it creates a solid floor for him like he finished as the wide receiver 14 last year competing for targets against Shakir cancade and Gabe Davis he's competing against big boys now with with tank Dell and Nico Collins like it's hard to get targets away from those guys and like like he's the wide receiver 19 right right now in his ADP like he needs to finish with over 15 points per game to do that now I think that's definitely achievable but I don't know man I I feel like this is a guy that probably is a steady Edy pick but I I don't necessarily know if that translates to a big home run like his Sims have him right here right as the wide receiver like right wide receiver 19 finishing at 15 overall as PPR mid so like I I think he'll be a fine pick I just don't feel super excited and I'd rather about him and I'd rather draft guys like Jaylen Wadd DJ Moore Devonte Smith Mark Andrews and Trey McBride over him and he he's like an aging slot receiver and I I think he's similar to like Keenan Allen and you can get Keenan Allen three to four rounds later so that that's my take on Diggs like I think Diggs is a fine pick but I do think he's more name brand and that's why he's kind of being driven up the board but I know Keegan you said this one hurts you do you have do you have any opinions on Diggs at this point just how far the mighty have fallen you know I was just talking to Aiden about how I drafted Diggs in the first round of a draft last year before we all started recording today it's just like you know any other offense that he went to I think it could have been like an argument for him to still be fantasy relevant but he does land in a wonderful quarterback situation A Team on the up and up but if I want to piece the offense I didn't get Nico I'll I'll wait and take tank after digs and tank is usually going after Diggs in most drafting formats right now so it's tough yeah they're going to probably move him into a more slot rooll like you said and those really high value targets that could be big plays for touchdowns are no longer part of safon digs games which was made him so exciting too especially with the bills when Josh Allen kind of unlocked that but I think that part of his career is coming to a close so yeah yeah yeah I got nothing else here I'm gonna I'm going to stay clear most likely unless he takes a dive down the board but no I'm not really dying to draft him the The Vibes are really bad towards the end of last year I would not be shocked if he scored 15 fantasy points per game but I'm trying to swing for upside it's like I think Diggs is a safe pick I just think he's going a little too high that that's basically where I'm at with Diggs um if he fell in drafts I think he's actually a pretty solid like wide receiver three option I just don't think I'd really love him to be in my starting two at wide receiver' be pretty sick as a flex I'm not going to lie but fle that that's kind of where I'm at here moving on to our next guy here Aiden it's your time to shine tell us why you're Zay Flowers again you can't stop fading this guy you faded him in best ball now you're a fad him in redraft um so I said I wouldn't do it I said I wouldn't do it back then I was like this is just a beste ball fade boys but then the more I look into his ADP just like the more I can't do it um so going as a wide receiver 26 which is just about 50 overall right now just like looking at some of the other guys like again this just comes down to like who else is around you in this range and I I can't talk myself into it you've got guys like Malik neighbors Amari Cooper George Pickins got tank Dell Christian Kirk Scary Terry like I love a lot of those guys compared to Z flowers and it's not like he had a bad year by any means you know he was wide receiver 31 in his rookie season you know had 800 50 yards five touchdowns like very productive rookie season like this was nothing against what he did there's a couple of reasons why I'm not really in on him though um I don't see it getting much better for Z flowers in terms of his production if you look at Lamar Jackson historically how many wide receivers do you think have eclipsed a thousand yards for him Hollywood Hollywood did it one time in 2009 2019 and he did it by eight yards it's just is that the only one to go over a thousand it is the only time in Lamar Jackson's career that a wide receiver has eclipsed 10,000 yards has Mark even done it Mark's done it Mark did it that year as well I think he's done it three times maybe it was two okay okay um well I was looking Mark Andrews is still there Rashad baitman getting a ton of Buzz they just drafted a big you know Red Zone Target in TZ Walker like Z flowers is not a jump ball guy by any means and then you look at the rushing attack too you know in the king this was already a top three rushing offense in football I just you know we've talked about it two in previous episodes their defense probably won't be as good but still a very strong unit you know at all three levels they've got guys I just don't see a change in a whole lot for Z flowers I think he's a good player um but at his ADP like I just see so much more upset like Malik neighbors and Z flowers right next to we like um next to each other in the rankings like I think Malik neighbors could like legitimately have like 40 more targets than Z hours you know Terry mclen he's done it you know he's been around that wide receiver 20 you know he's still the number one read in his offense you guys know I love Christian Kirk it's just if he was closer to like wide receiver 30 35 I think I'm feeling better about him but again it's just like historically Lamar Jackson doesn't support wide receivers you know we're drafting him as you know a wide receiver to a fringe wide receiver two here and I think you know he's just firmly a wide receiver 3 and that's fine but I'm not going to pay up for it um I'm fine missing on this one like I don't see a world whatsoever where this guy cracks like top 18 top 15 wide receivers um you know what he maybe you know goes up to wide receiver 20 you know maybe um I'm good off that I'm I'm just not very interested D yeah I get it I mean like if you look at the Sims here he's got better Sims than Drake London but um I I would say his high is 17.3 his mid's around 11 he probably ends up scoring 12 13 fantasy points PPR fantasy points per game probably yeah way more upside around him I do think though he he showed some pretty promising stuff in his reception perception profile he's really good against Zone 90th good against Zone he's really handsome press not so much but he's tiny that's encouraging Keegan do you have a lean on on Z at all in drafts I don't know I don't think he has value is terrible like I'll flirt with some Z flower stuff I think what makes him the most exciting is is the ability to win in broken down plays like he's so Shifty like with when the play breaks down and Lamar Jackson as the legs to extend plays like Z flowers is a really you know good person to have on your team when it comes to that so could be some busted play potential but those are not things you want to bank on I just think he's really good with the ball in his hands um maybe some more growth as a wide receiver could lead them to manufacturing a couple extra touches here and there and he still is the number two option um with Lamar Jackson was Is Not a Bad Thing uh but I think he's probably right around where he should be going um I think Lamar and Andrew should go off the board before him but I'm happy to draft Z flowers with where he's at but I think the uh the boom potential is not much there but I think his floor should rise this year now that he's not a rookie another year in the offense more trust with Lamar Jackson I think I think it's an R right pick yeah he killed me this week against the Jaguars in the first I think that was the second week of the fantasy playoffs or the first oh that was that was brutal that was that was brutal that that was a rough one um yeah I don't I don't think I'm going to give you too much push back I think if Z is on the on the board I think I wouldn't hesitate to take him I like Z flowers but I agree like what is the ceiling especially when you on his game log there Sean yeah pretty close I was going to say Z flowers only needs one more 20po game under his belt to have the same out of 20 point games is Chris no no generational hater bro oh I mean he's not that wrong though he's not that wrong um yeah he's he's really not okay Keenan Allen moving on to the next guy here Keegan your mystery fade number two I think you kind of spoiled it yeah yeah I think you guys are on to me a little bit here um and I I teased it when we're talking about the wide receiver tiers and we were discussing Roma dun but yeah I just think Keenan Allen is is getting a little old I think it uh you know might be time to go to bed Grandma for for Keenan Allen um I there's people are gonna I'll address the good stuff first because I know people are like this is so stupid but in the beginning of the season I think Ian Allen will be great I think he will be a blanket for Caleb Williams like he is going to be a fantastic outlet for a rookie quarterback who is still very very good on short and intermediate routes and he was a Target hog last year and that was very evident at him winning in these short and intermediate routes like he was very his open rate was insane last year insane s success against man is still good but it's falling off a little bit over the years especially in 2023 and he's going to graduate into a role and we've talked a little bit about how Stefan dig is getting put in this role but like he's going to like the retirement home of like electric wide receivers aka the power slot position and an offense that will be very potent this year but it's hard there's a lot of decisions to make when you're drafting fantasy wide receivers especially in a crowded room and sometimes you have to make a difficult one that doesn't seem right at the time but I can't like all the wide receivers in the Bears rooms I flag planted Caleb Williams I've talked about I I like DJ Moore this year I've talked about how much I've drafted C Herbert for crying out loud like I'm all in on the team but somebody's got to be the odd man out and for me it's Keenan year 12 of his NFL career data historically tells us that there's a pretty steep drop off off in the back half of their careers especially year 9 to 11 last year I think was a anomaly because when you look at expected fantasy points per game look at this and what he did last year yeah I mean oh my that is it was absolutely insane but no wide receiver had more expected fantasy points per game than Keenan Allen and yet he scored 21 he he scored a little like less than half a point per game than he was expected to score the highest rate like he was basically dead on his expected usage it's because of the type of targets they were like he's not going to break loose for big plays he's not going to be somebody who's going to win downfield on the sidelines anymore like this point of his career he's getting put into a more slot role like I talked about on top of that the Bears give DJ Moore a huge extension welld deserved I think DJ Moore is like a Cornerstone for the Bears next coming years and build around Caleb Williams Keenan Allen's the only one that's playing on a one-year deal here like he's the only one who does not have long-term plans with the Bears he's been brought in and I think it makes their wide receiver room great they also draft rad dun with a ninth pick in the draft whose ADP is wide receiver 44 and right now Keenan Allen is wide receiver 30 and PPR and if I'm trying to win a fantasy league and I'm looking at the board and I want something that's going to win me at the end of the year when I'm picking this range like I don't know if I can pick the year 12 wide receiver who's going to be playing primarily slot or if I want to pick the top 10 draft pick that's going like a full 14 wide receivers later than Keenan Allen like I think I've either gonna draft DJ Moore I'm gonna wait and draft romad dun I think their price is all very Justified but for Keenan Allen like there's a couple people in this range that I might rather like pivot towards I think Calvin Ridley's good in this range there's also two good quarterbacks I like in this range with Zach Prescott and Kyler Murray Christian Kirk is also in this range who's like a deao number one wide receiver being drafted the same spot as Keen Allen who like I said at the beginning of this I think is going to have a really strong start to the year if he leads the team in targets for the first couple weeks I wouldn't be shocked but at the end of the year Rome comes on DJ Moore is a big factor like I want to bet on the late season surge of the rookie and I think I'm just gonna step away from Kean Allen we have a bears you're fading two bears now back toback episodes um but you did flag planted bear you did flag planted bear uh yeah what how do you think this is going to shake out as someone you you've been following this team really closely all offseason what what how should we approach this in your opinion do you think Keegan on to something here it's hard to say um I think one part of your argument that like I could debunk right away is like that like he's falling off at all he like this is a guy that hasn't been outside of the top 14 wide receivers aside from one since what is this 20 how year is that I can't scroll far enough what the last eight season Seasons um like this is a guy that's been doing it at the highest level for almost a decade straight now um they're going to pass a ton you know this could to be a very pass happy offense I think you know really good safety blanket for Caleb and like who's to say that they're going to you know take him off the field as the year goes on you know it's like this is a guy that is like a professional separator um but in terms of like I think it kind of comes back to the Z flowers case these guys are you know only five wide receivers apart like what's the bull case for ke and Allen you know if you're really high on DJ Moore um you know that's really hard you know like if if we think DJ Moore has another you know top 10 top 15 season in him like Keenan can't pop too like it's you know it's very rare that you know two wide receivers can support that level of production so you know I kind of understand your argument around that like you know more upside in this range um you know I still like Kean Allen I think he's gonna be an awesome football player for the Chicago Bears but like you know I think you're probably getting him right around where he'll be you know maybe he overperforms ADP a little bit but you know he was wide receiver eight last year like there's no shot that happens next year unless for whatever reason DJ Mo gets hurt um you know DJ Moore is the one there and that's you know that that's been very clear since you know camp and everything the thing is is like the Sims love him because he just had such a huge statistical outlier season before he got hurt so like his average is coming in at 16.7 that's a really good number for where he's being drafted open Score loved him ESPN's open Score had him as the best receiver at getting open last season he a separator man he's so good and then you look at Keenan Allen's reception perception it's pretty good I mean like it it's just crushing on curls and Slants flats and comebacks like all these middle of the field slant routes that he that he does really well at I do think Keegan like two things can be true here one Keenan Allen really benefited from probably the best runout imaginable last year with the Chargers literally everyone got hurt like and and their defense sucked so they just ran a [ __ ] ton of plays and the offense just went through Keenan Allen at and at the same time like that's why he benefited from it but I also don't know if he's like fallen off so like that that's the hard thing for me I was super high on Jackson Smith and jiga last year and I think romad dun is a better player than Jackson Smith and jig is at the same time I think Keenan Allen's a way better player than Tyler Tyler Lockett is and this is the same offensive coordinator that didn't really play J jsn and I just think it might be hard for Odun to jump or leap Keenan Allen and that's nothing on Odun OD dun's reception perception is absurd and I I would I'm gonna bet on Odun and fantasy drafts I do just think though that Keenan Allen's still really good um so I struggle with it like and he's very similar to Diggs he's very similar to Diggs so if you want that profile I'd rather just take Keenan Allen way later but at the same time if you want to draft someone who isn't you know going to get their a RP card I'm not going to fault you for it either you know he's old yeah doing it a while I know I made a joke about him like old and like we're sending him to the retirement home for power slot receivers that just like can't win on the outside anymore but he's he hasn't dropped off that much like he's still like wildly successful in these short and intermediate routes I mean the chart speaks for itself and like who Kean Allen is today is I think exactly what the Bears or are going to have him do which is totally fine but like for Fantasy what does that look like like Keenan Allen is also benefited from a lot of injuries to wide receiver rooms in the careers that he's been and the Chargers and has been the deao healthy guy which means uptick and targets more offensive output funneling straight through him I mean there's been so many times where Mike Williams missed games and ke Allen benefits from it so he's had a very pure runout being a number one option but if you if you just try and think of it like and a non PPR perspective like if you're looking at half PPR I think the argument to be made for me is a little bit easier and PPR formats it's it's a tricky fade because like yeah he might catch the first couple weeks Aiden correct me if I'm wrong but like he might get targeted 10 11 times in the first couple weeks like oh for sure on a lot of easy catches Tennesse Houston Indie yeah I mean he could have like the beginning of his schedule is very very promising but the other thing I want to call I'm glad you pull it up is like week seven by is pretty early uh for a football team to have a buy and we all know how those post rookie those post buy rookie bumps go yeah so that's kind of what my thought process is I'm not like hating on Keenan Allen like he's still really good at what he does but that's what he'll be doing is is everything that he's good at and like his role role will be no more no less they have a very good Elite winner on the outside in DJ Moore I'm just really high on Rome it might be more of a Rome adun take than it is a Keenan Allen take it's fair Odun is an amazing Prospect and he's the cheapest one you can get by far so it's like there really wasn't that big of a difference between Neighbors mhj Odun all fantastic prospects but I do think neighbors and and mhj really benefit from zero competition at least in the wide receiver department at to start um but yeah I mean I'm I can get behind it like I I don't know if Keenan Allen's gonna win leagues where you draft them so I I respect it I respect it last guy here um Christian Watson this is a two for one this is a BOGO because you you faded him last year and um we're going back in back he juston die old man he just it just won't happen yet so Aiden's uh gonna kind of keep going here he's going to fade the wide receiver 42 the 99th player off the board in uh in Christian Watson I'm not doing it yeah I like you can't make me draft this guy redraft it is like the profile is just like redraft nightmare with this guy um so like Sean mentioned what was he going last year like wide Sher probably like mid like 20s where was he last year yeah he was he was sixth round fifth round guy last year yeah so you know cheaper this year so it's like why why are you so out on this he's watch receiv for 42 you know relatively low cost um I'd rather just take a swing on someone else at this point like I would rather have Jameson Williams and Chris Watson by far this year you've got old people like Hopkins you know you've got Rome over there you've got lad you got jsn um I literally just have zero interest in Christian Watson in any redraft format whatsoever the guy's 25 years old but like we know he's notorious for missing time um 11 games so far through two seasons you know we've heard about his hamstrings all off season it's you know the imbalance of muscle yada y y um the dude just can't keep his body right and is just kind of a nightmare there at this point I find it hard to believe that he's better than like the third best wide best wide receiver on that team um you know Romeo dos very secure there Jaden Reed has the probably the most unique skill set out of all those guys and then I love Davian wicks um I think keeg mentioned it in our tier episode like people have kind of been Wix pilled um and I absolutely have and I'm going to keep doing it um because I think he's awesome I think like he's the best route runner on that team in my opinion and then you're not even looking at Josh Jacobs you got both of their young tight ends like there's so many mouths to feed that plus like his inability to stay on the field I just I find it hard to believe that if you're going to take a swing on one of the Packers wide receivers like why is this the one you're swinging on Dante tavan Wix is significantly cheaper Romeo dobs significantly cheaper you know Jaden Reed's not you know as cheap but you know he's done it like Jaden Reed did a full season last year in his rookie year so I'm just not doing it it's just like it's it's so hard to get excited about this guy it feels like we're like one year away from being out of the NFL if he can't stay healthy um no so no it's just but like I get the upside though you know he's 12 touchdowns and you know two very short Seasons a thousand yards like can absolutely CH Claypool he's literally Chase Claypool uh what was his name Martavis Bryant like it's like like the flashes are there which is why I think people like keep coming back in for more it's just like he kind of teases it and then it's like ah just kidding I'm out for another month H just kidding you know it's I think you have way better swings to take at the end of the draft like I'll take Jameson Williams over Christian Watson and I have been mean to Jameson Williams and my evaluation of him going into this year he's like the exact opposite of Chris where all he does is score either four points or like 20 points it's kind of nuts how many 20 point games he's put up in like the short amount of games he's played I don't know you guys got to see The Sims here it's it's crazy it's it's literally like the most it's the most Christian Watson list ever mvs DJ chart Kenny Stills um Mike Williams Sammy wat Sammy Watkins what a good one what a good one there it's give you one good week yeah no no no you got Chris the Chris Godwin year three breakout is is showing up here that's interesting you got Amari Cooper like there there's some names hate him there's enough names like CU look even like his PPR high is still relatively High because of his upside and what he's done so far but like this wide range of outcomes five nine and 16 in terms of low mid and high and then his PBR average is around 10 that sounds about right like that honestly does and Matt Haron we we you know we talk about reception perception a lot he he does not think he's a good route Runner 26 percentile against man 27th against press eighth against Zone he thinks he's a role player just like go run nines all he can do is take the top all he does is take the top off and that player and screens yeah I mean that that player is like interesting but I don't I don't just don't know how like super talented he is and I think there's just more talented guys in that room and like I was big backer that was a big backer last year I loved the upside you you were Watson pilled last year let's not put it lightly big backer would be an understatement I I was a big backer because I just bought in on that any of year performance he had and you know I'm a big year two guy so I was excited and then you know you look at what he did in his last two games before injury 20 points 27 and then you know hurts his hamstrings again so it's like but look at before I'd argue like everyone keeps saying he ran the most routes their offense was terrible when he was out here running all these routes like their offense got so much better the more Jaden Reed played so I I don't know like I get the idea of wanting to draft somebody tied to Jordan love big play Upside but I'd rather take d uh dobs straight up over Watson at this point 100% he's going to be on the field significantly more and Jordan love trusts him dude that like dos is Jordan Love's favorite watch receiver and in that room like no sounds like it sounds like it Keegan are you you like gonna buy the post postype sleeper with Christian Watson or are you out no I I it's really tough because he's super exciting when he does hit and like that's what you want in fantasy that's what wins you matchups but you guys said it I think dos is going to be on the field the most out of any Packers wide receiver and then you gotta find time for Jaden Reed because he's honestly so good I mean look 10 touchdowns on 75 touches last year is an absurd rate like Jaden Reed will definitely regress that it's just way too efficient but he's very good I think Wix is good Josh Jacobs is very good they have two very viable tight ends like trying to pencil in a week for Christian Watson is going to be agonizing like even if he could get you a really high ceiling outcome in a week like it's going to be so painful like he might just be a Gabe Davis type could be you know like I don't know if I want to that's a really frustrating type of fantasy wide receiver to have on your roster so I'm probably not clicking him in a redraft I've got my fair share of him and and best ball for sure like I'm I'm pretty in on the Packers offense this year but yeah redraft that would be a tough pill to swallow you'll bench him one week and he'll go off for 27 if he's healthy and the week you start him it's it's a TW burger and you lose your matchup so yeah I I think he's a fine pick because the upside but I I've seen people online that are like he's the one that you're going to want and I'm like I don't know I don't know if I'm buying that I don't know if I'm buying that that's it six guys six guys that we're fading here Christian Watson you got Z flowers you got Stefon Diggs Keenan Allen who else do we got Chris alve we' got some some big names here uh we got Drake London and um who else I missing that's six that's that's a list that's a list guys a list who who we putting on the thumbnail it's got right It's gotta be a or Drake London yeah no like people are obsessed with it's got to be D I don't know we'll piss people off with either one so it's got to be one of these two man the London stands they don't want to give up they they really don't I get it he I have him in Dynasty I'm kind I'm really excited for him in Dynasty this year I just in redraft would love to see him do it like that that's my whole thing before I draft already PA for it years ago like like You' got it but this year you're paying up handsomely all right that's six guys that we are uh fading at Cost we're going to be talking through our targets a little bit later in the week stay tuned for that thank you Aiden Keegan is joining as always and um till next time everybody