What the latest primary election results say about the state of the GOP in 2024

Amna: Virginia, Oklahoma, and Georgia held primary and runoff elections last night and the results in some key races could say a lot about the state of the Republican party this election cycle. Lisa Desjardins has been following it all closely and joins me now. Lisa, let's begin in Virginia now where the chair of the house freedom caucus is in danger of losing a seat to another Republican. Tell us about the race and the results so far. Lisa: This is one of them assist ordinary primary races we are probably going to see all year. We are talking about Republican Bob good, the chairman of the house freedom caucus. He had a Republican challenger. Both men, very conservative. Both men, big supporters of former president trump. Let's look at where this race is right now. If you look at the total, just barely within half a percentage point, and make -- my calculus and is 321 votes to separate these men right now but John Mcguire, he is a brand-new state senator, just at that office in January, winning over the incumbent congressman by 321 votes right now. What is the big difference between these two guys? Let's look at this. Former president trump endorsed Mcguire, a nonincumbent and opposed Bob good. Why is that? It happens that Bob good endorsed Ron Desantis in the primary. Both of these men have signs saying they support Donald Trump. This has been a real test of trump and whether he can convince people in a district to vote against an incumbent who has served them for almost two terms now. Amna: It is rare for an incumbent Toulouse in a primary like this. Why is it one to watch? Lisa: What is happening here is trump taking over the Republican party continually. The house freedom caucus does generally support former president trump. It's one of the few wildcards left in the house. We have covered the dysfunction and the kind of bucking that has gone on from the house freedom caucus. Bob good is someone who pushed for and led to the ouster of Kevin Mccarthy. This is a hard group to control. So it could be said that this is a group that perhaps someone coming into office as the president would like to make sure he can control. Bob good did not endorse him. That is something the former president did not like. When you talk to political experts like Larry Sabado at the university of Virginia, he says this is a highly unusual race. >> Incumbents almost never lose party primaries and the fact that one who is as entrenched as Bob good, who is also a major national figure, main chairman of the freedom caucus, should lose even by one vote is a headline. The message was very clear. Donald Trump was saying if you cross me personally and if you cross my agenda, this could happen to you. >> Conservative outside group supported $10 million in this Republican versus Republican race. That is extraordinary. Groups from everything from Marjorie Taylor Greene have been supporting John Mcguire. Kevin Mccarthy has gotten involved in this race. Right now, where it stands is Bob good is not saying that he's lost. He's going to wait because under Virginia law, ballots that were filed. Postmarked by election time. If they are received by Friday, they still count so we really don't know where this race is going to end up. Amna: You are tracking a number of other races as well. Tell us what you are watching and why they matter. Lisa: Tom Cole is a well-known Republican, now the chairman of the house appropriations committee. He also had a challenger from the right who said he is too friendly with Democrats. He easily won that election but it was something that people were watching very closely. He is sort of a voice of moderation in the house Republican conference. Another race in Georgia in the fifth congressional district. A candidate there was someone who was convicted on January 6. We are going to get to the deficit in just a second but there was a candidate in the Georgia fifth congressional district who was convicted of entering the capital with his wife on January 6. That is chuck right there, the Republican. He lost in that primary. It was a real test to see if there was support for someone like that who faced actual gentle -- jail time because of January 6. Those were two races we were watching as well. Amna: I want to turn to the congressional budget office. T's just focus on that story first. The cbo came out with a stunning conclusion about the deficit. Tell us what that was. Lisa: Let's get right to that graphic that popped up. The cbo has said their projection is now that we will have a $1.9 trillion deficit this year. That is much larger than they originally forecast and it is about 7% of our gross domestic product so right now, we are pushing about $1 trillion in interest payments in this country each year just on interest on our debt and why did things go up? Student loans. The forgiveness program's in the Biden administration, that cost more than they thought it would and medicaid costs also have been larger than expected. Amna: How is this connected to the races you were following, Lisa? Lisa: Let's connect it altogether. Bob good and the freedom caucus, their central raison d'etre has been about cutting spending and if former president trump or whoever becomes president, whoever winds this election, they will have to reckon with potentially a freedom caucus that will still try and say we are not going to support any bills that raise spending or that don't cut it more so the freedom caucus that has less power really does have an effect potential on the deficit and also on the functioning and potential shutdowns ahead. These issues are all very connected. Freedom caucus is one of the loudest voices on the deficit but a voice that some people say is too disruptive so that is why these matter quite a lot. Amna: Lisa Desjardins, thank you very much. Lisa: You are welcome.