CHAMPIONS LEAGUE DRAW REACTION! Liverpool, Real Madrid & Man City discover their opponents | ESPN FC

all we know so far is who everybody will be playing they'll be playing eight games four at home four away we don't know yet the order um or the schedules that's going to come later there's a bunch of restrictions on that for those wondering why can't they just p uh go and publish a fixure list they have to get advice from from local police they have to avoid certain situations two teams from the same City playing on the same night so it is actually a big cluster mess and it does take them some time to go and sort that out we'll know that Saturday the picture might change but right now we're dealing with the fact that we just know who's playing who and whether it's at home or away so Ryan one of the things is you know before there was a big advantage to being a top seat to being in po one going into the competition because obviously you wouldn't be playing other pot one teams um now everybody's playing two teams from pot one two teams from pot two two teams from pot three two teams from pot four so there's really no Edge in being being kind of good or highly seated going into it it should make on paper for a tighter competition yeah I think I think the interesting thing about this at least today as we're doing this in the aftermath of the draw is that I do think it should make a much more interesting competition and I think if you will get into this you look at the strength of schedule there's almost no correlation between how hard your schedule is and what pot you were in which I think is good but it doesn't really lend itself to like the pageantry of a draw and doesn't fit into the structur of like usually there's one team you want to avoid from potc right because it's some team that hadn't been in the Champions League for a while like Newcastle last year and that that just doesn't exist this year so I think it was interesting that I do think it'll make the competition way more uh compelling but also like doing a draw for it and then having to wait for the schedule it's just I understand people being pretty confused you know what we have Mark here to be the grumpy one that who's not who's old school and nonpaced with technology you don't need to fill that role too Ryan just be a little more Millennial a little bit just saying I understand Mark's feeling Mark was it really that painful they wrapped everything up in just over an hour and that's including the president's awards for uh for for G Buon and Christiano Ronaldo and including that that long film which I enjoyed which maybe not everybody enjoyed featuring all those former leg Legends uh and of course C by Satan Ibrahimovic listen I thought the film was the best part of the draw thought it was great I thought he gives ltin and Buon an honory Champions League medal you know and just just thank them for being that look the draw has given me a headache I think it was it was a bit it was too fast in many ways because I'm trying to keep up with what team schedule is and before you know they moved on to the next team so I don't know who Liverpool have got or Man City have got instantly because I'm looking to see who they've got got and it's gone so it was a little bit too quick so I'm not quite sure that the whole draw as Ry said it wasn't really made for TV I think it was something that probably just best to just press a button and do it all at once because it just felt a little bit hard to keep up with so you know all the teams got what they expect what what they they got eight eight teams sorry eight eight games and it's going to take a bit of working out we're doing this what half and half it finished I think it does need a little bit of digesting for ourselves for fans for the team for the managers I'm sure everyone looking at thinking H this is taking a bit of working out it probably does this is all new for all of us I agree with you on on the spectacle front I don't know if it's a tweak of maybe leaving the graphics up on screen longer so people can follow along or maybe repeat them in a crawl at the bottom I think these are all things that are going to be be figured out but right now as it stands um Ryan you told us that really nobody should have a big advantage in in terms of strength of schedule obviously somebody will because the way they they make the pots is they do it based on the UFA coefficients and you know teams that haven't been in in European competition in a while uh are going to have very low coefficients or or in fact zero in in many cases like like Jona or or bologa um that said taking that into account how how is the strength of schedule looking who's got the toughest what kind of teams have the toughest schedule and how tough is it really yeah I I think think it's interesting that uh the teams with the tough schedules the team with easy schedules it's like an array of teams I think among the big clubs it's sort of unquestionably PSG who has the hardest schedule Bayern Munich for those not following at home like Mark uh Paris sjer man schedule includes Bayern Munich Manchester City Atletico Madrid Arsenal PV oven salsburg Jona and star now Jona and star two examples of team that are what we talked about right two pop four teams who have very low coefficients right yes stmr as you pointed out to me before the show that's how you pronounce it STS yeah uh have a higher coefficient than either drona or stutgart and I you know if you look at the betting odds any other kind of modeling of the sport those teams are going to be stronger um even though they have lower points so in that regard yeah it doesn't quite match up I think fyord among mid-tier teams have a really difficult schedule which is kind of um I guess the downside of this format and then at the other side I think um like among all an interesting thing is among all the English teams I think Aston Villa actually has the easiest path of the four which previous setup astonvilla would have had a really difficult uh opport chance to get to the round of 16 because they would have been in pop four could have been with um three other big teams so I think Villa look at their schedule yeah want do you want me to read it out since I have it right here since I'm prepared go for it I'm schedule Bayern Munich leig Juventus Brugge uh young boys burn Celtic Monaco and and bolognia yeah so I think obviously bayern's tough I think leig is probably the easiest uh pot one team that anyone could have drawn uve is tough from pot two but Club bro is well below I think the average level of quality and then young boys and Celtic from pot three is those are just teams that astonvilla is going to be favored to be both home and away I think and then Monaco and bolognia I think are tougher but it's also teams that Villa should be favored against I I think especially given their relative strength to Man City Arsenal and Liverpool seeing that Villa go a have a much easier path I think than either either three was interesting to me can I jump in on that I I think I think got it tough in the sense that because they're they're not in the same level as Arsenal Liverpool or or Man City I think that I think I think they'll find it hard to get out of that that section because you know Bayern and UV for me will be will be too good for Villa I think Monaco way tough game I just think Villa going into this with a lot of an experience and yesterday got to the semi-finals of the conference League last year but I just think there's there's a danger for me by the headlights and even the Celtic game Celtic at home you know for for people outside the UK that will be a huge occasion because it's you know Celtic Scottish Champions anytime they play an English Team so-call Battle of Britain they call it and the Scottish teams will always overperform so I think I think for Villa I think it's a tough one I appreciate what you're saying right in terms of how it how it Stacks up you know maybe statistically but I think I think from an emotional side of it I think that's going to be tough for Villa so this is a good time to remind people that um in case you don't know the top eight teams they Advance automatically um teams rank the teams that finish between 9 and 24 go into a two-legged playoff and then teams between 25 and 36 are eliminated now obviously nobody wants to play two extra fixtures in in January so I think we can take it as red de I think that's going to be a pretty strong incentive um when you're talking about Villa advancing are you presumably Mark you're talking about Villa advancing and finishing in the top eight is that what you're talking about or is the top 24 no no no well top 24 isn't it I still think they got obviously got a chance of that because it's the bottom they're not gonna be in the bottom eight I don't think but I do think that it's going to be hard for them but list if I'm a villa fan I'm thinking it's great you've got two European heavyweights at home but he might be a bit greedy wan to play he want to play by Munich Munich I guess and go to Juventus but still I think it's a great draw for Villa from a fan perspective but I think it's a tough one for me Liverpool have got the best draw I think Liverpool have got you know the two sish games at home and the rest are a fairly straightforward yeah that that's another Factor actually the um Home and Away uh aspect of this right um or is it Ryan I mean is it a big deal is it something that we kind of overemphasize home record away record and stuff like that no I I uh in a book that just came out by Ian Graham uh former director of research at Liverpool he said that home field advantage is essentially worth having Messi on your team versus not having him you would think that this is a guy who plays who was who worked at anfield for for a decade if it' work somewhere else might that's the example but yeah it makes a huge difference so I think Mark's right playing Real Madrid uh they're the second favorites in the betting odds I think a lot of people would consider them the favorites playing them at the Bernay Liverpool would not be favored playing at anfield Liverpool are going to be more likely to win that game at least on the odds than Madrid will so it does it does make a sizable difference so that I think it looks hard for Liverpool on a pure just average quality of the teams because they got lusen and Madrid which are two of the tougher teams to draw but having them both at home sort of makes it a little more manageable than it looks I think at first glance so one big thing when we talk about uh qualifying and you we're looking at this everybody's going to go and play Eight Games is how many points points are you likely to need to advance and here there's a bit of a there's a bit of a disparity right so to advance to the playoffs in other words to get in the top 24 um the UEFA guys yesterday did a bunch of simulations and they said oh we think that six points is kind of the threshold to get to to be able to qualify um Dale Johnson uh who did a big simulation for us he puts that number closer to nine points based on the simulation and the testing that that he's done Ryan you're the tie breaker here who's right and who's wrong Dale or the Nerds at UEFA yeah given that we talked about the UEFA coefficient giving stutgart zero points I'm gonna side with Dale yeah the other estimates that I've seen have it at around 8 to 10 to get to sort of guarantee that you get into the playoff and 14 to 16 to finish top eight so Dale's right again so 14 to 16 to finish top eight that suggests to me that unlike a league nobody will have opened up a big lead at the top um because this is the other big talking point mark in the past obviously we've had dead rubbers um looking at this again the people have done the simulations they've come to us and they've said you know what going into match day eight the the final match day we think there's only going to be a couple teams that uh that are going to be sure of where they're going to finish that have nothing enough to play for a couple teams who maybe have already qualified top eight couple teams who might know that they're in that that middle pack and a couple teams uh that know that they're out of everything and won't be even dropping out in the Europa League because there is no drop down in the Europa League um are you does that I'm gonna ask I mean Ryan can give us a more reasoned answer um to me in an unreasoned way it doesn't feel that doesn't feel right doesn't feel likely how does it feel to you mark no like I guess it depends on the schedule of fixtures doesn't it it depends how the draw pans are if you know if um if some team have a loaded fix list where they get their the easiest Games first then they might be they might be clear by you know game six but some teams may have at the other way around and they may be kind of they may be maybe out of it early on so I don't think we can kind of say that until we see how the fixures have played out and what the schedule is but I do think we're going to get to a point where a couple of teams at least will be will be clearing through by by the time it's match day six or seven but it is even match day six wow that would be I think wor scenario well let's take Liverpool for example because you know if Liverpool played Real Madrid in their last game is that would have been I'm not sure please please play no right okay so let's say Liverpool play real mrid in the last game at Outfield and then they play you know AC Milan away in the second last game then you could argue that the two of the hardest games that are right at the end of the competition so they could be three they could be clear by match day six so I don't know I do need to lie down at the moment but I don't think it's going to be as strong as you ever say Ryan help us out here are we gonna get a bunch of dead rubbers meaningful games teams saying like all right we'll definitely be in the playoffs we'll definitely be top eight um and is that gonna and I'm assuming that's gonna impact things because if I literally have nothing to play for mean UFA say that oh but there's going to be I think every place that you're above the other one is going to give you 275,000 pounds which or Euros which is a pittance to many of these teams it's a lot to some of them but that's not really an incentive um is that a risk I I think it's possible but one thing that's happening with this new setup is that you're seated the entire tournament based on where you finish so if you finish first or second you're guaranteed to play the the lower seated teams that advance from uh the preliminary knockout round and then you're also going to be matched up against the eighth place or seventh place team that advances so you do there is seating that's on um that's like up for grabs the entire time and I don't like I guess guess we'll see but like it's hard to picture anyone just like going on a massive run and like winning every game and being so far ahead of everyone else um just because of I don't know just looking at the schedule and kind of weighing things up it just it doesn't really feel like we're in a atmosphere where that's likely to happen and then you have the multiple sort of you have the top eight fighting for seating you have the teams around eight fighting to get into the top eight then you have you know 11 through 15 fighting for their own seating in the first preliminary stage then the next glut of teens fighting to get in so it feels like there's enough different levels of incentives to potentially avoid that but we've never seen it before so who knows I'm not big on the seeding at all in fact I argued this and in fact the theodorus the uh the General Secretary of uh of UEA agrees with me although I think he's the only one you make the seed if you you should make the seeds meaningful you finish your top seed you get to pick your opponent finish second you get to then select an opponent out of that that would make it exciting you could have it on television you have it on clock that would make it meaningful you're you're with me right Ryan it's me you and Theo right I think they should do that in every sport like you if you're the one seed you should get to pick who you play not just like absolutely like in the NBA Playoffs the Knicks played the Sixers uh and the Sixers were just injured for a lot of the year the Sixers were not the seventh uh we don't need to get into that anyway yeah no it makes so much more sense if you want to actually make it meaningful that's just my view anyway um our producer Tom is uh asking me to ask you guys what games you're most looking forward to because viewers really care to know what games get Mark Ogden excited no just kidding it is a standard question mark I'm going to give you a few more minutes so you can collect your thoughts because I know this is really difficult for you to answer so I'm going to go to you first Ryan uh since your head might be a little bit clearer than it is with us old folk yeah it's hard not to look forward to Madrid going to anfield um the weird things always happen whenever those teams play It's the orange slot era it's Liverpool back in the Champions League after missing out and the last time those teams played at anfield it was one of the the craziest games I can remember where Liverpool briefly looked like they were going to win seven nothing and were winning uh by two goals and then got absolutely annihilated by the end of the game so I think uh I think like that's the if I had to pick one game that's the one that I think is gonna be the most sort of hey no question that's a Showbiz game and I'm gonna I'm gonna give this idea now to Liverpool to to to Michael Edwards and Billy Hogan invite Jurgen claw back for that game have him be like the stadium announcer announcing the guys get the crowd GED up you you have to do this uh that would be Chas uh Arie what about you listen like again you know you're right Liverpool Madrid but it depends when it is if it's match day eight then it probably wouldn't be as interesting as if come you don't have to suck the fun out of everything for the I tell you what the game looking forward to is Aston Villa V Celtic because I just I just think it' be a mad house it'll just be one it' be the Champions League can be quite sterile at times and it's it's the best competition around but it can be quite sterile to get the wrong games you got two clubs that know they're going to go through I think astonvilla V Celtic will be crazy I think it'll be a great game and a great occasion two teams aren't going to win the champions league but I think in terms of a occasion and atmosphere and a game that's probably got real Jeopardy I think that' be a really good game to watch I I final thought on this because uh I just want to he from you Ryan because you've also looked at like the bookie side of things I'm kind of like the fact that we get to see some teams that we literally have never seen in the Champions League before like slova Bratislava like bologa Jona whatever um you know star I think they well they must have been there before because they won the league but hasn't been a while um any can any of these newcomers do anything and I'm not including Aston Villa in that list because Aston Villa actually won the Champions League or the European Cup so no you don't get put you don't get lumped in with the Bas and slov and brlas of this Ro yeah I mean I think I do I mean in some ways this format fights back against Randomness because it evens everyone's schedules out but also I think it does give the lower seated teams a better shot of making it to knockout rounds because one they there are more teams that make The Knockout rounds 24 teams and then once you're there it's two games anything can happen so I think like the structure itself gives them a shot I just think the thing that's like a little bit of bummer with stutgart bolognia Jona is like just the thing that always happens where these teams would be super exciting if they were the exact same teams from last year but they' all lost either key players or their coach or both so yeah I'm not I wish I could be more positive on one of them making a Deep Run I think someone will make a Deep Run Like Dortmund did last year [Music]