Severe Weather Update 12 July 2024: Heavy rain, damaging winds to impact parts of Tasmania, Victoria

Published: Jul 11, 2024 Duration: 00:03:49 Category: Science & Technology

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Intro Heavy rain and damaging winds to impact parts of Tasmania and possibly Victoria on Sunday and Monday. And while Severe Weather Warnings aren't current right now, we expect them to be issued later on Saturday, especially around the eastern and south-eastern parts of Tasmania, for damaging winds and possibly heavy rainfall. And talking about rainfall, Flood Watchers we already have Flood Watches current for large parts of Tasmania, including the populated areas of south-eastern Tasmania. That means if you live in this highlighted area, the forecast rainfall could lead to flash and riverine flooding, and possibly into minor flooding as well. So, make sure you pay attention to areas around here with that heavy rainfall on the way. But what's driving all of this weather? Low Pressure System Well, if we zoom out a little bit, you can see a low pressure system developing off the coast of New South Wales on Saturday, and it's going to rapidly intensify as we move through the day on Saturday and Saturday night and it's going to take an unusual direction. Generally, lows here will go to the south-east, but this one is actually going to go to the south-west and that means the weather is going to shift into eastern parts of Tasmania and southern parts of Victoria. So, as we get into the afternoon on Sunday, notice the really strong winds and rainfall wrapping around this low pressure system starting to impact eastern and south-eastern parts of Tasmania and some of that energy and weather also getting up into parts of South Australia and southern Victoria. Then as we move into the latter part of Sunday, you'll see the low of getting pretty close to Tasmania, with widespread heavy rain and gusty winds, some possibly damaging. Now, I must stress this is just one scenario. Some of our guidance has a low further north, some further east, and some further south. So, that's why it's important if you live in this area or know someone that does, to continue to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings across the weekend in Tasmania and southern Victoria. Then as we move into later Monday and Tuesday, continuing to see that heavy rain and strong and possibly damaging winds impacting parts of Tasmania and southern Victoria. Rainfall Now, when we start talking about rainfall, pretty dry across Saturday but note the rainfall starting to pick up as that rain shifts westward, which is highly dependent on the exact track and intensity of this low pressure system. But by the time we get into Monday morning, we could see widespread falls of 50-80 mm through southern and south-eastern parts of Tasmania, with isolated falls even higher than that. And that's what could cause our flash and riverine flooding issues. But not only are we going to have rainfall and wind issues, Snow this cold air is going to spread across much of south-eastern Australia. So, we could see widespread areas of snow. So, that's going to start in Tasmania on Saturday shown here by these pink areas through here, but also note some elevated areas of alpine areas of Victoria and New South Wales snow starting to develop there as we move through Sunday. But note as that air gets further north, with some moisture, we could also start seeing snow developing around the Central and even Northern Tablelands of New South Wales on Monday and that will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday as well. Finally, the other impact of this weather system will also be huge seas and swell. So, this is a very large low pressure system. and that's going to lead to some very big seas and swell off the coast of New South Wales, where we're likely to see Hazardous Surf Warnings there across the weekend and into early next week. But also note towards parts of Tasmania and even into western parts of Victoria, we could see very large seas and swells there, with damaging and hazardous surf also possible as we move through Sunday and particularly into Monday and Tuesday. So, with all this weather going on across south-eastern parts of the country, particularly across Tasmania and southern Victoria remember to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website, app and social media. And when the weather does increase, listen to all advice from emergency services.

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