Trump's Path to Victory? Nate Silver's 2024 Electoral Projections Explained

Hello friends The 2024 US presidential election is  approaching. Nate Silver's updated 2024 election   map gives former president Donald Trump a  62% chance of winning a second term. Silver,   founder of FiveThirtyEight, has been a leading  election analyst for more than a decade. Trump has   been trailing his rival Harris for most of August,  but has recently gained a significant advantage.  Don't forget to subscribe to our  channel before watching the video.  We will start our analysis by filling in the safe  states. These are states where a candidate has a   99% or higher probability of winning. Safe states  for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris include   California on the West Coast, Illinois in the  Midwest, and New York, Vermont, Massachusetts,   Maryland, Maryland and the District of Columbia in  the Northeast. These states provide Harris with a   total of 128 electoral college votes. The list  of safe states for Republican candidate Donald   Trump is more extensive: Utah, Idaho, Wyoming,  North and South Dakota (excluding Nebraska's   second district), Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri,  Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky,   West Virginia and Indiana. These states give  Trump a total of 103 electoral college votes.  We will now look at the “likely” category, with  a probability of winning between 80% and 99%. For   Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, this category  includes Washington and Oregon. In these states,   Harris is expected to win, but the margin will not  be as large as in California. In Washington and   Oregon, it will be between 10 and 20 points.  Colorado and New Mexico, whose political   leanings have shifted to the left in recent  years, are also in this group. These states,   which voted for George W. Bush in 2004, were won  by Joe Biden by double digits in 2020. In 2024,   Harris is expected to win these states by  a smaller margin, possibly single digits.  Minnesota's current governor Tim Walz's strong  support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris   has a significant impact on Minnesota's electoral  outlook. If Walz had not been the Democratic Vice   Presidential candidate, the state would have  been much more competitive. Current projections   give Harris an 84% chance of winning Minnesota.  Minnesota's electoral history is also remarkable:   no Republican candidate has won here since  1972. The state's trend was broken only in 1984,   when Ronald Reagan won against Walter Mondale. Connecticut and Rhode Island are strong Democratic   strongholds, although not as liberal as their  neighbor Massachusetts. Similarly, New Jersey and   Delaware have a more moderate political profile  than their neighboring states. In Virginia,   where no Republican candidate has won since  2004, Joe Biden won by a double-digit margin   in 2020. According to current projections, Kamala  Harris has an 82.8% chance of winning Virginia.  In Hawaii, the administration's handling of  the Maui fires was criticized. In Hawaii,   where Hillary Clinton won by 32 points  in 2016, Donald Trump's share of the vote   increased in 2020, despite Joe Biden's  nationwide success. Nevertheless, the   state is likely to vote Democratic again in 2024. In Maine, the situation is a bit more complicated:   statewide, Kamala Harris has  an 85% chance of winning,   while in the first district it is closer to 99%. Among the states where Donald Trump is “likely” to   win are Montana, Mississippi, South Carolina and  Alaska. In these states, Trump is almost certain   to win a third term. According to forecasts, Trump  could lead by 15 points or more in these states.   However, these states may not be as conservative  as Missouri, Wyoming, Indiana or West Virginia,   but they still show a strong Republican leaning. In the Midwest are the states of Iowa and Ohio.   These two states are notable as critical  swing states that Trump flipped in favor   of Republicans in 2016. Trump won Iowa by 9  points and Ohio by 8 points in 2016. Compared   to Barack Obama's success in these states in  2012, these results show a significant political   shift in the region. According to Nate Silver's  forecasts, Trump has a 95% chance of winning Iowa   and a 97% chance of winning Ohio. Both states  are therefore in the “Republican” category.  Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate  since 1976. “Solid red” in 2012 with Mitt   Romney's strong victory, Texas signaled a  change in 2016 when Trump won by less than   10 points. Despite expectations that Biden  could take Texas in 2020, Trump managed to   win the state by a 6-point margin. Forecasts for  2024 suggest that Trump is likely to win Texas by   a double-digit margin. According to Nate Silver's  analysis, Trump has a 91% chance of winning Texas.  Once a key battleground where both parties  fought hard, Florida is no longer seen as   a competitive state. In the 2020 elections,  Joe Biden lost Florida by a margin of 3.4%,   worse than Hillary Clinton's performance in  2016. In the gubernatorial elections in 2022, the   re-election of Republican Ron DeSantis by a huge  19-point margin reinforced the state's Republican   leanings. According to Nate Silver's analysis,  the probability of Donald Trump winning Florida   for a third time in 2024 is estimated at 88%.  Therefore, Florida is now a “likely red state”.  We will assess the trending states where Harris  and Trump have a 60% to 80% probability of   winning. These are states where both candidates  have a chance of winning, but one candidate has   a slight edge. First, we briefly consider the  two remaining congressional districts. Trump   is the favorite in Maine's second district, while  Harris has a slight advantage in Nebraska's second   district. The only remaining swing state on the  map in the presidential race is New Hampshire.   This state has four electoral college votes and  is where Hillary Clinton almost lost in 2016.   New Hampshire was the second closest state in the  country in that election, behind Michigan. Today,   New Hampshire, also known as the Granite State,  favors Democrats slightly more. Harris has a   70% chance of winning in New Hampshire. There are seven big states left to decide   the outcome of the election. While some of  these states lean more to the right and some   more to the left, all are highly contested and  unpredictable. We will begin our examination of   these critical states with North Carolina, which  has 16 electoral college votes. In North Carolina,   Donald Trump is the clear favorite, with a 75%  chance of winning. The Democrats have won North   Carolina only once since 1976, in 2008 under  Barack Obama. North Carolina will therefore   be the first red state that leans Republican. The situation in Georgia is different from North   Carolina. Trump has a 67% chance of winning this  state. Trump is the clear favorite in Georgia,   known as the “Peach State”. In the 2020 elections,  Joe Biden won this state by a very small margin.   This is a very different picture compared to  four years ago and puts Trump in a much more   advantageous position. As a result, with  Trump's 67% chance of winning in Georgia,   the state is trending in the Republican category. Arizona underwent a similar transformation to   Georgia in the 2020 elections. According to the  predictions of renowned analyst Nate Silver,   Trump has a two-thirds chance of winning  Arizona again. As it can be recalled,   Trump won Arizona eight years ago by a margin of  about 4 points. Therefore, Arizona, like Georgia,   is considered a leaning Republican state. Before moving to the Midwest, we will   examine Nevada, which has 6 electoral college  votes. Nevada is classified as a Tilt state,   which means that either Harris or Trump has  a 50% to 60% chance of winning. According to   Nate Silver's analysis, Donald Trump has  a 59% chance of winning Nevada. However,   it is important to note that Nevada has  consistently voted for Democrats since 2004.  Pennsylvania is one of the most critical states of  the election with 19 electoral college votes. The   fact that Joe Biden was born in Pennsylvania  and carried this connection was considered   an advantage for the Democrats. But the fact that  KLA Harris does not carry this personal connection   changes the dynamics of the state. Pennsylvania  is so important that if Trump wins the state,   it could put Trump in the White House for a  second term, even if Harris wins Nevada and   Arizona. According to current projections, Trump  has a 61.7% chance of winning. Pennsylvania is   therefore in the trending red category. The last two critical states remaining on   the electoral map are Wisconsin and Michigan.  The results of these two states are expected to   be very close. KLA Harris' choice of Tim Walz as  running mate gives a small advantage for Democrats   in Wisconsin. Traditionally seen as the most  conservative state among the trio of Wisconsin,   Michigan and Pennsylvania, the addition of  Walz changes that balance. According to Nate   Silver's projections, KLA Harris was leading  in these two states some time ago. However,   recent developments have put Donald Trump ahead.  Trump has a 52% chance of winning in Wisconsin.   In Michigan, Trump's chances look slightly  better. The betting markets in Michigan paint a   worrying picture for Harris. About two weeks ago,  Harris's chances of winning the state were 66%,   while now they have fallen to just over 50%. Current projections for the 2024 elections   put Trump on track to win all contested states  and receive a total of 312 electoral college   votes. In contrast, KLA Harris is estimated  to receive 226 electoral college votes.  You can write your thoughts on the  November elections in the comments.