Ukraine's Kursk Invasion Stalls as Russian Forces Advance Towards Pokrovsk in Donbas | Gen GD Bakshi

the surprise Ukrainian offensive into the K oblast of Russia has astonished the whole world the simple question that most military analysts are asking and analyzing is that despite 247 satellite surveillance drone surveillance surveillance by avax in the ground mode how was it possible for Ukraine to achieve such total surprise at the Strategic at the operational and at the Tactical levels it has not been uh off the operation it has been meticulously planned well thought out and as lavro was saying it has been done with full cooperation of the United States and especially the United Kingdom which have had a major role to play in the planning of this operation there is of course the Contra view that perhaps this operation though very Grand in the media impact very telling in The Tick Tock battles it is unfortunately in military terms will amount to very little because it has diverted resources from the key easn theater in D desk and luhansk where the Russians have been making slow but steady and Relentless progress in the last you know uh couple of months and weeks they have taken New York they have taken Tores and they are closing in on pesk which has been evacuated by the ukrainians the Ukrainian troops in the East are bitterly complaining that these very scarce high-tech resources crela cre of the Ukrainian Army could much better have been utilized in the Eastern theater to stop the Russian advances where they really matter where you know the Russians if they take territory it will be perhaps forever so what has been really the worth of this diversionary offensive some people are calling it uh what is called uh uh you know some people are calling it an offensive which is preemptive in was preemptive in nature was designed to Forstall a major Russian offensive which was expected to come in the area of sui and K so perhaps this was to fend it off we will go into the motivations a little later what is crucial from the military point of view is to see how such total surprise was achieved how such total surprise is possible in this era of total Battlefield transparency every single tank vehicle every single infantry man can be picked up by satellites by drones and not just uh located but neutralized so how did this happened so let's take that surprise aspect for uh at the start at the outset because from military learning point of view it is critical for armed forces the world over strategic surprise how did the ukrainians achieve strategic surprise the Western countries and Ukraine launched a major deception offensive to the effect that they were Keen now for peace talks that they wanted peace talks as we all know zalinsky had held that conference you know peace conference son Russia it was quite a quite a media eyewash because the world was wondering how can you have a peace talks or peace conference without the other antagonist on the table so that was more of again a PR exercise the media exercise to read out terms of surrender to Russia and it sounded quite delusional because on the ground Ukraine was clearly uh losing but this media offensive did for the third time manage to uh beguile the Russians you know let's not forget that the Minsk Accords as now has been brought out by the Germans themselves were used by the NATO and the w to lull uh you know Putin into into complacency or to lull him into the belief that yes they were Keen for a solution that they wanted sincerely wanted talks they did not because they simply use that period the Americans used that period of the Minsk negotiations to arm the Ukrainian Armed Forces to the teeth and build them up into a formidable military machine when Russia had taken over creia in 2014 had it gone in then and done what it did in 2022 it would have gone like a knife through butter because the Ukrainian armed forces were hardly in any position to resist it would have been Georgia Redux but Putin was really keen on uh talks with the West he felt they would be reasonable I think he has uh still not shown the realization that the West is trying its level best to destroy Russia destroy it economically use Ukraine as a battering ramp fight Russia to the last Ukrainian weaken it weaken its economy and bring the country to its knes they wanted to impose regime change this was the first time that they use this strategy of deception in terms of trying to initiate peace talks negotiate ations while preparing for fullon war Russia was poked so much in the eye that ultimately it had no uh option but to try and invade Ukraine and head off the Ukraine attack into the donbas and onto creia Russians were quite sure that if they didn't go in Ukraine had all been prepared to launch a major offensive with the help of NATO under the guise of NATO EX exercises Etc so he had no option but to preempt so he went in but he went in Invasion light he was still Keen that he should not offend his slav cousins in Ukraine which is actually the center of the Slavic culture the Orthodox Church to an extent that there would be irreparable breach so he chose Invasion light the Russian way of war is premised upon full use of Manpower and technology in overwhelming strength to just uh you know grind down steamroll the opposition but in this case we saw the gasim of doctrine of uh hybrid War being put to use Wagner had been used in uh dones and Lans provinces to fight for the Russians for the rights of the Russians and now they went in for Invasion light the Russian like I have said often attack with 1 lak 150,000 against a Ukrainian Army that was 250,000 strong to start with had mobilized fully and gone up to 550,000 so this had its delerious impact but the fact of the matter is that the Russians had achieved most of their initial objectives they taken 90% of Lans 60% of dones they had taken a land bridge to creia had taken the almost the entire Ukrainian Court uh Coast all ports L Odessa so at that time Putin was Keen to Now call it off and go for peace negotiations the second set of Peace negotiations were held in Bell Russia and then in turkey and a very I think favorable uh peace negotiations uh for the point of view of Ukraine had been drawn up up a very favorable agreement that Russia would withdraw as a Goodwill gesture from the gates of cave and it would withdraw from all the Russian occupied territories even in the east on the simple premise that Ukraine would declare neutrality and uh assure that it would not join NATO as simple as that the deal was done and zalinski could have taken a hurah on a high note but that is the time Boris Johnson flew into gaiv and he pressurized zalinski to carry on fighting to carry on fighting till the last Russian was thrown out of Ukrainian territory and possibly even at that stage they were thinking of incursions into Russia so for the second time peace talks were used to uh beguile Russia to uh deceive Russia into complacency and it worked for the second time this is the third time that the west and Ukraine have used the plea or the uh you know the stratagem of indulging in peace talks of trying to talk of peace and negotiations and thereby lowering the Russian guard it has happened for the third time in succession so that was how they achieved strategic surprise operational surprise the ukrainians you know made a lot of noise that Russia was about to attack in the sui region and therefore they started moving troops into the sui region and to that extent the Russians saw it not as an offensive measure but as a defensive measure like I said you can always spot concentrations but you can't spot intentions from satellites those have to be inferred and generally General staffs the world over are prone to infer things to their liking you know to what they would prefer to believe and the Russian general staff saw these preparations in the sui area but they uh attributed them to a defensive intent on the part of Ukraine in the face of a likely projected Russian uh offensive in the sui K area the simple fact is that the Russians as per some media reports had started demining the Border area of ksk in preparation for a major offensive that would possibly go through this area into towards cave towards Sumi proper American satellites picked up the Gap the glaring Gap in the Russian defenses they picked up how thin the Russian forces were on the ground though there were two very major defense lines which could be seen from satellites trench lines uh in the area of bordering area of of Cur but the simple fact is they were not manned and a defense line is of very little use unless it is man so the Americans saw this Gap by their Satellites by their drones and they passed it on to the ukrainians that this is the place to strike this is the place to go and create a major PR disaster for Putin this was quite analogous to what the Americans had done in September August September 2022 don't forget at that stage the uh ukrainians were attacking in the south in Kon so the Russians had pulled out troops from K to strengthen the Kon front leaving a big gap in Kar and they were withdrawing to the line of the osil river to shorten their overall defense line they were short of troops they were forced into the shenanigans the American satellites picked up the big gap in the Russian defenses in kave and they encouraged Ukraine to gather their resources and launched a very quick offensive deep into K where the Russians had already withdrawn so it looked like a major victory on the television screens but the fact was that area was empty the the ukrainians had moved into a void created by a Russian withdrawal to the line of the oscill river and that time also the 80th Airborne Brigade armed with Strikers and uh you know mder armored personal carriers they made a big Dash because there was no fighting to be done they made a very big Dash made it look like a blitz C and claimed Horas of Victory exactly the same has been done in the k s but this time it has been far more meticulously planned with the British playing a major part in the operational planning now what are some of the uh Salient features let's get to surprise at the Tactical level we have discussed how the ukrainians got surprised at the Strategic level at the operational level and now let's look at the Tactical level firstly the ukrainians moved their troops mostly into sui into the builtup areas so that the full uh you know extent of it could not be gauged the Russians thought it was a defensive move uh but these were uh offensive formations the kadila cream of the Ukrainian Army the 80th Airborne uh Brigade and the 22nd mechanized Brigade very tough combat hardened experienced units they brought in their drone Warriors you know drone Warfare teams especially to be here and initially they had not concentrated full brigades they had concentrated battalions of these offensive formations there were about about a battalion each from uh you know the 80th uh uh airborne Brigade 22nd mechanized Brigade a territorial Army Brigade so a mix Mash of troops which was used to make the initial penetration electronic warfare a key uh you know uh component of the initial Ukrainian success was the use of electronic warfare equipment the Americans had supplied which was designed to jam the Russian drone commun iations and their Communications between the various units so this sudden jamming effort played a paid very major dividends to the ukrainians in their initial success in the first two to 3 days the Ukrainian mechanized elements found very little opposition there was hardly any opposition worth the name you know and the mechanized elements went in deep there were there was nothing to oppose them it is in the initial Rush some of them went in 20 km then another 10 km almost 30 km inside Russia proper they had gone in because there was nothing whatsoever there were just some conscript formations there were some ammed Chen units and there were some uh Russian border guards that was all very thin defenses hardly any Manning of the defense lines and therefore they just merily uh raced right deep inside into Russia they bypassed whatever little opposition was there so that they could penetrate deep in the classical so-called Blitz Creek style so Blitz Creek styles are very good as long as there is no opposition otherwise it becomes a slogging grind like is happening in eastern Ukraine they used their drones to hit the Kam of uh you know 52 helicopters don't forget that the the Ukrainian offensive last years a major role had been played by the Kam of 52 helicopters uh the Kam of Havoc helicopters anti-tank helicopters which were firing from standof ranges but in the instant case the kamov helicopters were not exactly aware on the ground where exactly was the enemy the was situation was so confused and the jamming of communications had uh you know added to the disarray and confusion in the Russian response so in many cases the kamov helicopters ventured over the battle area and they were engaged by the Ukrainian air defense resources the the book missiles the anti-aircraft Guns Etc and two of them were shot down and one was shot down using a Ukrainian drone I think this is one of the first instances where a drone has shot down an attack helicopter but we learn there is so much to learn in war then the second aspect was that the Ukrainian drones long range drones had attacked all the airfields of the Russians which would likely have sent in their Su 24 bombers with Fab bombs Fab 500 Fab 3,000 Etc all these heavy bombs to uh to to stop these uh advancing mechanized elements those had been hit so there was disarray even at that level and then of course the Russians in their desperation began to use uh their uh their their isander missiles isander missiles some in some places with uh you know the the uh bomblets so that the Clore mind kind of bombet effect sometimes with the the high explosive Etc they tried desperately to stop these mechanized columns wherever they could locate them as the uh Ukrainian forces moved deeper in they went outside the range of their uh electronic warfare equipment and this enabled the Russian drones now to take lanet drones Etc to take heavy inflict heavy damage on the Ukrainian mechanized elements now the Ukrainian had started the attack with just about a th000 men less than a brigade but the moment they found the Gap they have pulled in about almost 11,000 additional troops have been sucked into this area to try and deepen the penetration widen the penetration by this time the Russians had started responding they had started moving in their troops so one question that occurs at this time is what was the intention of this Ukrainian incursion stroke limited offensive was it just a spoiling attack or was it meant to capture and hold ground to bargain for territory later or to create a buffer zone at the Russians had said in K uh this is still being speculated upon as to what exactly was the intention but uh uh military experts uh uh es especially like col mcregor and Scott Ritter have been saying that the Ukrainian objective was the Russian nuclear power plant in ksk had they taken that had they destroyed that they could have achieved the effect of a nuclear meltdown a dirty bomb inside Russia and caused gous harm to Russia but this seemed to be a bridge too far it is 60 kilm from the furthest point that the ukrainians had managed to reach and by that time the Russians were rushing troops pel Mel there was chaos on the Russian side there was disarray on the Russian side initially Putin was extremely angry and it appears that he fired General gasimov and the local defense was given to an FSB intelligence general intelligence Commander there was this tussle between the ministry of defense and the uh Uh Russian Security Agency as to who would control this and I think it is the FSB commander who was finally given charge he has moved in the key Russian premise was that whatever happened they would not move out any troops from the Eastern theater where they were making steady but very very significant progress like I said uh proas was about to fall and uh uh you know the the the area of totsky had already fallen so uh it was it was it was quite uh evident that the Russian core premise was that whatever might happened in K it was an area of low strategic priority it was an area of a lot of forest they had evacuated the population from the border District where this had happened and uh uh they they were not going to divert any troops from their main offensive in dantesque and luhans period now this quite obviously led to a lot of heartb burning in Ukraine especially on their Eastern front and they were asking as to what is the point of this incursion apart from the media hype apart from scoring points on Tik Tok What is the military utility of this operation yes it achieved surprise strategic operational tactical yes it initially did uh penetrate a fair distance through but it also took away vital critical military resources from the Eastern front where Russia was making significant gains it took away mechanized elements the best units which could possibly have been used to Counterattack slow down the the Russian progress but somehow the uh you know the Ukrainian military Chief the Russian general seemed to have decided that uh the East was well lost and he would like to gamble all on this incursion into Kursk now this incursion would have been meaningful if it had reached the Russian nuclear plant it was nowhere near there was speculation that there was that uh you know that gas station at the border but then those gas pipelines are passing through Ukraine and going to Europe Ukraine could have cut them anywhere you didn't have to make an incursion into KK to cut that uh stop that outflow of gas to Europe to countries which need them badly Eastern European countries so the K was Out Of Reach a bridge too far and apart from that what was the value of this Salient except for lot of propaganda value lot of uh uh you know uh media impact value scops value information Warfare value winning the war on the television screens which seems to have been the preferred option of the United States of the West and of Europe to do things for the media impact not ground impact but more for the media impact some other additional uh you know military aspects which are of value for other Armed Forces to study is the use of remotely delivered mines the Russian uh sorry the Ukrainian used remotely delivered mines from the artillery guns to plant mines on the road axis on which the Russian reinforcements would come they use the haars to uh you know destroy the bridges to hit the Russian concentrate Uh Russian Troop mve ments forward Etc and also they use these scatterable mines to protect the flanks of their offensives whatever they did by day three day four the tide had slowly turned as the Ukrainian units moved out of the range of their ew formations the Russians now began to hit their air defense means their air defense s300 batteries which were with slant range covering this battle area they began to hit their uh their anti-aircraft guns and uh missiles and then they began to hit the haars themselves and the artillery concentrations of the ukrainians now the landet uh you know drones they had adjusted to the frequency jamming and they started their attacks on the mechanized Columns of the ukrainians they used is kandas very very very scarce resource very vital resource but they used it h p Mill to try and stop this uh offensive anyhow Kalen McGregor estimates that about 3,500 to 4,000 of the 11,000 plus Ukrainian troops that have gone into KK have been killed oblique wounded and the bulk of the equipment has been hit and destroyed the Russians have now started using Fab 300 they have uh 3,000 they have evacuated their own population and made the way now the surprising thing is how would Russia react overall we all thought that Russia had mobilized 300,000 troops in uh had been forced to mobilize 3,000 reservists which had manned the Surak in line and beaten back all Russian counter offensives in 2023 and then they had got about 250,000 conscripts so the first reaction of any military man was look you got 250,000 troops what Russia got to worry about I think they should use it to first uh uh you know to Snuff out this penetration and as a followup just keep moving into into K go around the flanks of this penetration going to K proper cut them off from the rear and let them starve on the wine but uh here comes another surprising uh Revelation it's it's amazing how Russia has been tying its own one arm behind its back throughout this conflict I mean Force restriction uh real real constraints on the usage of Force Level have I to my mind needlessly extended this war for 3 years almost it now appears that Putin had said has decreed that the conscripts will not be used in live operations in Ukraine because he felt it would be a move which would be unpopular with the Russian masses the simple fact is that the Russian people are now outraged they have seen how three sincere efforts at peace talks at ceasefire at negotiations have been utilized to the contrary to do harm to Russia there is outrage in Russia people thought that uh you know this was invasion of Russia proper and Ukraine this is not occupied territory Russian occupied territory in Ukraine but Russia proper and how would Russia react to it there was a thought that they might even go in for the tactical Nuclear level but the simple fact is that the Russian have made their cost benefit calculations they feel this is not very vital strategic terrain and over a period of time they will be able to recover it they don't want to this to hamper their main operation in the East which is now at the point of succeeding completely so they felt that it a nuclear response would just uh uh stop their gains in the East and take the war to a different level all together you know and possibly give NATO forces a chance to intervene and put boots on the ground Etc and complicate the situation so very intelligently they have decided on the side of caution and patience and the Russians have declared it Putin declared it a counterterrorist operation not an invasion not even an incursion a counterterrorist operation and he's saying we will deal with it as such like we finished the terrorists the Chen terrorist we will finish these terrorists Etc he in the meantime the Russian forces are going Full Throttle to capture uh you know the city of poas this town and the ukrainians have been forced to order its evacuation po sits on the lines of supply and communication if poas falls the whole dbas the whole of uh Dantes Province will fall they're also Clos you know closing into Karas you know and uh it is more or less end game in eastern Ukraine so which leads us back to the original uh you know formulation what therefore has Ukraine really be gained by a very costly digression by a very costly digression into Russia proper yes it has made media headlines yes it has uh you know made very good social media Tik Tok coverage as it is said you won the war on Tik Tok but I'm afraid you seem to be losing it and badly now on the ground with each passing day the position of the the Ukrainian elements in Kursk is becoming more and more precarious the Russians are likely to cut off their roots of Supply they are trying to take that Enclave On the Border by blowing up the bridges the Russians have put 102 pontoon bridges to keep that enclaves south of that River you know fully functional and going but the Ukrainian Force elements in the C Salient are under severe pressure from Russian Fab 3000 massive bombs fuel air explosives you know uh cluster Munitions Etc they are being hit by the landet drones they are being hit by Russian fire assault means artillery and multibarrel rocket launchers Etc they will soon be able to uh you know destroy most of their mechanized elements their Logistics are going to be a severe problem as the days go on because the Russian Air Force the Russian come of helicopters with that uh uh the aspect of electronic warfare jamming now they have overcome that initial shock effect and they will in all likelihood pulverize this uh uh this entire incursion entire force Matrix about 11 to 12,000 Ukrainian troops along with some Polish along with some NATO you you know men in uh American UK mercenaries in Ukrainian uniforms Georgians Etc what have you they had managed to sort of put together this cluster and mix it with combat hardened units and special drone operators who were very good at uh inflicting damage but this entire exercise could very shortly turn out to be an exercise in utter futility which has frittered away very vital Ukrainian military resources in a nonproductive direction and kept it away from the critical Eastern theater where the Russians are making Relentless gains be that as it may this course operation is an operation that will long be studied in the military acmis in the war colleges in the National Defense colleges staff colleges Etc because it has thrown up some very useful lessons the level of innovation on both sides on the Russian and the Ukrainian side is amazing the Ukrainian side has the benefit that the American satellites the American drones are providing it total Battlefield transparency of an unprecedented unimaginable level any Gap in the Russian defenses is being picked up previously Russia was defending its borderline not by military deployments but by the threat of going to the tactical Nuclear level of escalating but each of these red lines I'm very sorry to state has been breached and and zalinsky was recently growing that these Russian red lines are just na Just an Illusion Russia will have to do something to restore their credibility otherwise it will have to accept more pin Pricks across its borders it will have to mobilize in a massive way so that it can now finish this problem once and for all I would reckon that the kind of outrage that is there in the Russian population they will fully support greater mobilization of Russian Manpower resources and the uh the time period of the of the uh uh conscripts is likely to be enhan from 12 to 24 months and they could be used once the Russians have secured the East they could be used to take over the defensive tasks in the East whereas the more combat hardened units are shiting Ed to apply pressure onto cave either from the north either from valus or even from the Eastern Direction even from the Eastern Direction which is now opening out because so far the Russians were dealing with the densest Ukrainian defenses which have been in position from 2014 so when people say look how the ukrainians made such rapid progress they went 30 km in 3 to 4 days whereas the Russians have been inching forward well they've been inching forward against some of the most dense defenses which have been there in existence since 2014 so it's a whole different ball game going into a empty area and you know making a big hurra cavalry charge a husar's Charge of the Light Brigade is very fine when there is nobody to oppose you but when there are such dense defenses then I'm afraid the way the Russians are doing is the way to go there is no other there there is no other way to go but it's been very interesting how surprised at the Strategic operational tactical level was achieved and there's no denying that surprise was achieved I mean let's face facts yes the Russians have reacted to it because you were not able to take the kusk nuclear plant therefore it was no major threat so the Russians have taken their time they have not diverted any troops from the East they have used the uh the Chen ammet uh division they have used the uh you know the Wagners and theyve used the Russian FSB troops and the others internal security troops to try and contain this penetration and they are likely to Snuff it out over the next few days even if it takes a week or two it doesn't really matter the end dment will not change so there is Merit in the in the critique that the ukrainians have wasted very useful resources in the long wrong direction trying to gain a propaganda Victory a media hype and Tick Tock battles maybe one but on the grounds they're likely to be lost thank you