Why Nick Martinez Deserves More Recognition from Cincinnati Reds Fans

the Red's second most valuable pitcher is facing the Astros this Wednesday [Music] night you are locked on reds your daily Cincinnati Reds podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day welcome to locked on reds my name is Jeff Carr and I am a lifelong Cincinnati Reds fan seriously got the baby pictures in Reds gear to prove it and I've been hosting this podcast now for six seasons I am also the channel manager for the locked on MLB podcast Channel and I want to thank you for joining me here today lockon Reds is of course part of the lock on podcast Network we are your team every single day and I aim to make locked on reds for everyone out there we're not going to talk over your heads or anything like that we're going to talk about the biggest thing going on in Red's country we're going to dive into some geeky numbers but I'm going to make them make sense because if they don't make sense to me then they ain't going to be talked about and we are also going to overreact to the Daily Motions of the mob Ocean and the 162 here on lockon reds I'm glad that you're alongside me here today because I have a theory that pertains to Edwin aoo and how his 2025 season may go we'll discuss that a little bit later on in today's show and in a few minutes I want to ask and answer the question and I would appreciate you to answer the question as well down here in the comment section on YouTube or hit me up on Twitter jeffar with 3fs but I want to ask and answer the question as to whether the Reds need to shake up their organizational leadership after this season but we will begin with the Red's second most valuable pitcher in 2024 as he is starting tonight Wednesday night depending on if you're if you're watching or listening to this on Wednesday or a following day uh thereafter but I want to start off with him on today's episode that is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use promo code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase terms apply download game time today what time is it game time and what time is it tonight it's Nick Martinez time and Nick Martinez has been the Red's second most valuable pitcher here in 2024 I think it's clear who number one is that's hunter green that's obvious but if you look at a couple of different sites and you're a person that likes to go by War wins above replacement then according to baseball reference it's Andrew Abbott according to Fang graphs it's Nick Martinez and according to Jeff carve locked on reds it's Nick Martinez looking on the surface of course you see the 3.78 erra in 109 and 2/3 Innings pitch that's actually the fourth most Innings pitched on the team he also has a low strikeout rate but he has an elite walk rate we're talking top 1% of Major League Baseball few if any walk less hitters than Nick Martinez he has been super efficient with his pitches this year it's interesting because I advocated very heavily for Nick Martinez this past offseason really wanted him to come to Cincinnati very glad that he did but one of the reasons that I thought he would be so good for this team is that for his last couple of years in San Diego he had a very good ground ball rate he hasn't had that here this year in fact he's on the low end as far as inducing ground balls so hopefully that'll be something the rest of this way that he can kind of fix because as of right now he's only inducing ground balls about 37% of the time almost 38% of the time so that's a little bit of a of a disappointment but everything else has been great in fact if you look closer at what he has been able to do he is top 10 like top 10% of Major League Baseball in limiting hard contact the average exit velocity against him is really really good really below average as far as Major League you know average exit velocities go League average is around 88 his is around 86 and he is in the top 5% of all major league pitchers in allowing hard contact he does not allow hard contact very often it's funny because there are some starts and you can recall some recent starts in fact August wasn't super kind to him he started six games the most of any month this season and during those six games there were a couple of performances that really kind of boosted his ER up a little bit we're talking about a guy who at one point was flirting with the twos but at the same time he has had a bit of a struggle here in August and we can recall some starts where he gave up hard contact that's not to say that's been happening all year though and as much as we Cincinnati sports fans really love to focus on the negative when it comes to Cincinnati sports teams Nick Martinez has done a good job of limiting the loud contact that we have heard a little bit here recently but it just goes to show based on his performance recently that some of us may be disenchanted with just shows you how good he has been this year and I believe we'll see more of that starting here Wednesday night in the beginning of September because quite frankly there there's something that I am impressed with Nick Martinez on and that is when he faces runners in scoring position he actually really does a good job of buckling down because according to baseball reference opposing hitters have an Ops plus we always talk about Ops Plus for for a batter as kind of being like an A A One-Stop shot probably doesn't paint the whole picture but it paints enough of the picture that you can kind of tell it's it's one number that talks about the value of a hitter and when it comes to Nick Martinez opposing hitters have an Ops of 26% below League average against him with runners in scoring position so I.E when Runners are in scoring position against Nick Martinez the guy at the plate he does 26% worse than a League average hitter he buckles down in in in the times that he has faced runners in scoring position he has a strikeout to walk ratio of seven he has seven strikeouts for every walk so so good and so so efficient in the toughest of situations also and this really isn't I don't really extrapolate a whole lot of meaning out of this statistic but I thought it was interesting when there are Runners on first and second he has faced over 120 at bats in this instance where and an opposing team has Runners on first and second against him hitters are only hitting a buck 26 in those instances thought that was kind of interesting to kind of buckle that down or you know boil that down there but look I mean flexibility I mean we all know whether you love him or you hate him flexibility is David Bell's favorite trait in a baseball player and Nick Martinez is all Flex baby he's pitched out of the bullpen he's pitched out of the starting rotation I still kind of think think that the best version of Nick Martinez is as that long relief fireman type pitcher that you can bring in for multiple Innings but he has pitched very admirably in this tight spot that the Reds have been in for a while now of the starting rotation just being super unhealthy and he has really helped them out a lot I do find it interesting I wonder what his next year holds uh because Nick Martinez has a player option for next year so it's up to him whether he picks it up currently this season he is making $14 million if he picks up the player option for next year he will make $12 million next year so it's less but it makes you wonder a little bit on what where he thinks his value is he was seeking a team that was going to give him a fair shot to be a starting pitcher the Reds did that early on but as their starting rotation got healthy and as we saw a couple of not so great starts for Nick Martinez they moved him to the bullpen and he flourished so I kind of wonder where his head is at with that if he fancies himself to be a starting pitcher he may look for more money and he may uh decline his player option for next year but I would feel really good if the Reds brought him back if if he doesn't pick up his player option I would feel really good if the Reds went out and signed him off the free agent Heat this season this offseason because I really feel like this pitching staff is more well-rounded with him and on a pitching staff that we have talked nonstop about injuries this guy's hurt that guy's hurt he's hurt for a little bit he'll be back this guy he's out for the rest of the year Nick Martinez hasn't had to worry about that he has been consistent all year long and I think that he will continue to be consistent for the rest of this year and if they bring him back he'll be consistent next year he is the dude that I want to see the Reds bring back because this season from my money Nick Martinez has been the Red's second most valuable pitcher and I don't know I I think there's an argument to be had about angre rabbit and I would like to see if if Steve would make that argument but I just think that Nick Martinez does a lot of great stuff and that really kind of vaults him up the ladder as far as that argument is concerned we're just getting started today though because a season like 2024 should bring with it questions of the Reds leadership I'll give you my answer to those questions why it won't be the Red's answer coming up next passion drive and patience the formula for winning championships is also what keeps your ride or die alive eBay Motors has everything that you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to Peak Performance they've got superchargers they've got roof racks they've got exhaust kits LED headlights and more whether you're into speed power or style eBay Motors has as you covered with over 122 million parts for your number one ride or die you'll always find exactly what you're looking for at a price that you want and with eBay guaranteed fit your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or your money back because with eBay Motors you're burning rubber not cash with all the parts you need at the prices that you want it's easy to make your car that mvp and bring home huge wins keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com ible items only exclusions apply eBay guaranteed fit only available to us customers thank you for making lockdown Reds your first Liston today and every day for your second lesson check out lockon MLB as Paul Sullivan AKA Sully is here to provide National expertise with trademark humor and his his trademark wit as well and to help you get ready for the MLB playoffs here in the dog days of summer actually we're moving into it's almost fall time man it's crazy to think about that but hey Sully's going to get you ready for the fall classic over unlock on MLB every single day you can find it on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts it's part of the locked on podcast Network your team every single day and shout out to our every dayers out there appreciate you making us a part of your day each and every day we've had a bit of a wonky schedule I kind of let the holiday get me off a little bit on the on the scheduling side so this week we will uh continue to kind of retool it back to where it normally is by Friday we'll be back out in the mornings and all that good stuff um and speaking of uh what's coming up next we've got to look at really what the Reds have done on the infield and ask a couple of questions because coming in to this season we knew what we had and now I'm not so sure so we'll we'll we'll dissect that on the next lockdown Reds podcast but there's something that I I kind of want to focus on right now because Ken Rosenthal wrote this awesome article in the athletic and I believe it was free and unlocked so you don't have to be like an athletic subscriber to even read it which means that everybody can go check it out but he had this great article where he broke down some of the disappointing teams the Reds the Mariners the Cardinals the Cubs all these different teams that expected to contend this year and either are not that close to doing so or like the Reds they're kind of done kind of far out of it and he said these teams should be considering changes in their leadership but some of them have different priorities and I think that this is intriguing because he summed it up like this and this is the best way to think of it when baseball teams continue to get financial gain no matter the actual like onfield field gains that they see they're not that inclined to rock the boat I think that's really where we can put the Reds for most of our lifetimes really I mean even going back into the 90s and even into the 80s I mean you know there was the joke that you know Marge shot didn't want to pay for a uh well not a joke it was actual real thing that she didn't want to pay for a World Series celebration because uh they didn't get a game five in Cincinnati things like that like when owners get money they don't mind whatever else happens and so with that there are some teams that are more inclined to attack their their offseason needs and attack their inseason deficiencies in different ways with that I don't think Nick cwl is in Jeopardy this year I think he's got one more year to prove that his plan will work we were Advocates of that plan coming into this season this year was a bit annoying I don't necessarily know that I don't trust the plan but I certainly am not as fervent of a supporter of it as I was at the beginning of the year but I still think he's got another year David Bell on the other hand maybe a toss up if you ask the Reds I don't think they let him go and I think that that is annoying because he should be let go I think that at the end of this season you know contract extension from last year or not David Bell should should be let go should be fired all that other stuff I don't love talking about other people losing their jobs but based on what the Reds have done this year I think we should really ask some hard questions of David Bell in fact I I I I kind of think the Reds need to reassess their entire organizational game plan it is evident and we have said this before every day or will know that when it comes to the lineup when it comes to the daily movements of the roster this isn't like a David Bell only thing in fact David Bell may very well just be the mouthpiece for what the front office wants to do with the roster on a daily basis and there's also other guys like you know Jeff Pickler there's Joel mckathan there's Derek Johnson all these other guys have their their say their input and all that other stuff as to how the lineup looks how the pitching looks how the bullpen you know how the calls of the bullpen go everything like that so okay there's two ways we could go about this number one the Reds could hire a a manager that should let go of David Bel and they should hire a manager that is big on motivation and big on accountability I I you know you can tell him that the lineup is a joint venture and he is just the accountabil are because while I don't know and I'm not in the the The Dugout to tell you this based on the onfield production I can tell you this that it doesn't seem like there's a lot of accountability with this team they have made the same mistakes over and over and over and over and over again and they continue to make those same mistakes even into September picked off base you know bad errors you know taking an extra base when you shouldn't things like this some of it you can say Well they're young most of it you can say they should have figured this out the first time now what's that old thing you know fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me what's fool me six times because that's where we are with most of this stuff and I feel like the Reds need a a surge of accountability and quite frankly I don't believe David Bell can do that and I'm not saying that as a as a sort of like slight on him it's just based on his personality ever since he got here he has shown nothing to make me believe that he can because he does not have that as part of his personal it you know tree or whatever I'm thinking of like an RPG video game or something like his abilities and all this other stuff accountability is not a big thing for him he wants everybody to be comfortable he wants everybody to you know love everybody that that sort of thing he's a very Kumbaya manager and that might be good for some teams but I think we're done with that here I think the Reds need to figure that out so you could either do that or you could consider realigning the entire like management structure of this team and saying okay it's nit crawl and it's manager you know outside hire Joo whoever you bring him in these two guys make the decisions everybody else advises them but they're the decision makers and maybe you even give ultimate decision-making abilities to whoever the manager is on the day-to-day roster I think of it like this like in in football and in other sports we really talk a lot about coaches who seem to have too much on their plate and while nit craw isn't a coach he is a general manager president of baseball operations that seems to have too much on his plate he needs to be worried about improving the roster not worried about the day-to-day movements of that roster I find it interesting because I keep replaying the movie Moneyball in my head when I think about the red situation do you remember that movie if you saw it not to give any spoilers it's been out while who cares about spoilers at this point but Billy beam was trying to run the everyday lineup and art how was fighting vehemently against him at least in the movie I think in real life this was slightly different but at least in the movie it was portrayed this way and this is how I Envision this in my head and instead of David Bell fighting Nick crawl on the day-to-day movements of this team he's just like all right I'll write it down and that's fine that's probably why they hired him in the first place place because he wasn't going to push back I think the Reds need that push back now we've seen this too much you cannot just run this organizational philosophy back next year and expect different results because this team has talent but this team has no accountability this team has not improved from its deficiencies from day one and it needs to if it's going to get to its ultimate goal because they have they have told us and they have showed us in so many different ways over the last three decades that they are not going to compete with The Big Spenders so if you're going to do that you need a roster of 26 players that wins in the margins that does not give up bonehead mistakes that's exactly what the Reds have done a lot this year the bonee head mistakes part they've lost in the margins because of the bonee head mistakes so with that I mean if you're going to realign the organization maybe you bring in that motivator you bring in a new manager you bring in a new philosophy and with that you can you've got to let go of Joel mckian got to move on from the hitting coach need a different voice need a different perspective if you get a new manager maybe you bring in Joey Votto to be that guy because we've said before we don't believe Joey VTO works with David Bell but maybe he works with a new guy I think Derek Johnson is fine but he needs to be coordinating with the training staff on how to keep his guys healthy because we have seen the the Red's pitching staff for two years now has been a mash unit not the guys who started the season with them and that needs to stop which by the way get a new training staff I don't even think that needs to be said um this is ridiculous all the all the injuries they've dealt with this year I don't know if this is as cut and dry as I'm making it out to be but it certainly seems as though what the Reds have gone through says they need a new training staff and you know what Just for kicks and I actually believe that they should do this but on top of all this organizational restructuring pour everything you got to this offseason in signing Juan stto I want Nick crawl worried about who he can go get and not worried about who's at the plate every day I want the manager worried about that I want whoever that is who they should bring in to be worried about that just worry that they don't have the will to do that that's kind of the downer to all this but they need to make changes uh it's just they're one of those organizations that don't uh do that lightly we got one more thing to talk about though because Edwin aroyo could do big things next year so long as he does one thing this offseason there's not much time left in the Major League Baseball season but there's still plenty of time for you to get in on the game over at prize pick America's number one daily fantasy sports app because with baseball they've got all kinds of great statistics all your favorite statistics and all your favorite players they've also got football they've got the NBA they've got everything that's coming up for you and you can get in on the action every single day and it's easy to see why they are the number one daily fantasy sports app because you can win up to 100 times your money with just four picks they've got these great uh multipliers and incentivizes that help you use fewer picks to win more money because all you need to do is find your favorite player find your favorite stat and click more or click less just like with Ellie De La Cruz I mean anytime you look at steals you want to click more on him you'll add that together with maybe some passing yards for Joe burrow and who knows maybe even some rushing yards for Cory ker and the Bearcats it's all over at prize pick download the prize PI app today and use the code lockon MLB and you'll get $50 instantly when you play $5 you don't even need to win to receive that $50 bonus it's guaranteed prize picks run your game and the best way to get down to the ballpark for this Astro series and for the remaining home games for your Cincinnati Reds is with game time it's my favorite way to get down to the ballpark because they've got last minute tickets and the lowest prices on those last minute tickets seriously all you got to do go down to the banks find a nice spot maybe get a couple of beverages wait till close to about first pitch we usually wait Steve and I whenever we do this we usually wait till about 20 minutes or so before first pitch because you can get some awesome deals around that time especially when it comes to last call they've got so many great things plus they've got all in pricing so you see exactly how much you're going to pay so when you hit uh yeah check out you're not going to get these random price increases that you weren't expecting that take the deal right out of it go to game time today download the app and if you're a new customer use the promo code locked on MLB you'll get $20 off your first purchase again that's enhancing the already great prices over at game time for firsttime users by using the promo code locked on MLB over at game time to save $20 off that first purchase download game time today because what time is it it's game time you can catch every pitch of the Red's Hometown broadcast with SiriusXM just download the sxm app and search the word Reds also make sure you check out some written content about your Cincinnati Reds bookmark Cincinnati Reds talk.com today I'm writing over there Greg kuffner Reds daily on Twitter is writing over there and James rine and so many more people are writing about your Cincinnati Reds every single day that's Cincinnati redst talk.com and I uh wrote something over there uh for for the website about Edwin aroyo because we talked yesterday in case you missed it when we talked about some injury updates and things like that and one of the injury updates is Edwin a Royo is progressing through some rehab and getting ready for game action out in goody year right now you remember that Edwin Ayo had surgery to repair a torn laam that he suffered during spring training of this year and I believe and and in the plan so with with all that rehab and all that stuff he is working up to playing in the Arizona fall league this offseason I think that this means they are putting him in a position that should he a solid Arizona fall league should all go well he's got a shot to make his major league debut next year hear me out on this because I know he didn't play at all this year recovering from injury here in the minor leagues and he's only got four games at doublea and that's the highest level that he's made it to but the Arizona fall league is a bit of a concoction of a bunch of different talented players from a bunch of different levels throughout the minor leagues it's not necessarily a pressure cook for development but it's kind of like I don't know if you remember Dragon Ball Z and you remember uh those um all the the the pods that that Goku would get into to really get himself ready for a big fight that's kind of what I feel like the Arizona fall league is because you're not just facing guys who are at one certain level of the minor leagues you're facing a bunch of different talented dudes and Edwin aroyo is going to be able to do that he needs to do two things play solid then you have to play good just play solid don't be horrible and come out of this healthy and strong because here's what's going to happen with Edward and Royo going to the Arizona fall league the reds are at least admitting the possibility that he could be ready to go next year he's of the age where a lot of the guys that the Reds have been calling up are so it's not as if he is super super young and he's not in cam colier spot where it feels like even just age wise he's still a few years away he's right there in The Sweet Spot and he was in spring training last year for his first taste of Major League spring training before getting injured he had 17 at bats so we're not going to go too crazy about that but he did have six hits and two doubles and he had more walks than he struck out so that was encouraging to see there were a lot of encouraging things that he did out in the field as well most Scouts and pundits who really talk about Minor League Baseball have looked at the Reds organization and this included Ellie Del Cruz and Matt mlan and they said that Edwin a Royo is the best glove that the Reds have at shortstop all throughout their organization so in the future they expect him to be their everyday shortstop now he does need to continue to prove that his Bat is progressing because his Bat isn't the strongest part of his game but it's also not a super weak point it's not as if he's going to walk up there and be Billy Hamilton or he's going to be a glove first shortstop which don't exist anymore you you got to have a Dynamic Short Stop in the major leagues to be a good team edor Oro could be that guy he's never going to be the full package that Deli De La Cruz is but he's going to have a better glove and he's going to have a decent bat somebody that you could slot easily in the bottom of your lineup and feel good about it so with that being said go to Arizona be healthy be strong and don't look overmatched that's really all that we're looking for here because what happens if that is achieved he comes into spring training and he's going to make the Dark Horse list as far as players who could make the roster on opening day the whole point with dark horses is that they are super long shot you're not really even looking for them to accomplish the ultimate goal but if everything goes right and everything's the 100th percentile maybe I think what likely happens is he begins the year in Louisville and actually shout out to Friend of the podcast crazy Carrick Melvin uh me and him were talking about this and he agrees with me that he will begin the year in Louisville should everything go according to plan hopefully there's no setbacks or anything like that as he goes through his rehab process and as he goes into the Arizona fall league because yes he still has to do all those things for us to continue this conversation but I believe that should everything go according to plan and like I said doesn't have to set the world on fire in Arizona we could see him probably about midseason next year June July somewhere around that and and and I don't necessarily think that it's going to be one of those things where he comes up and he's immediately the everyday shortstop he's probably more likely the 26th man when you bring him up but I think that he will come up to be the 26th man and he'll stay up because I think that he has more Talent than what we have seen even from some of the guys that have already debuted he was the guy if if you remember back to the trade whenever the Reds got him in the Luis Castillo deal there were most most people were saying that Edwin Royo was the better player than Noel V Marte anyway there are a lot of folks that believe he was the best player in that deal so I look for that to continue to happen and and with the way that major league teams are approaching development these days talked about this a lot every day as well know that when it comes to development and getting guys to the major leagues there's not a lot of teams that believe you must be developed to come to the Major Leagues that once you get to the bigs that's when you start your final stage of development and you could make the argument that should things go well in the Arizona fall league and should things go well in spring training and maybe he has a nice couple of months in Louisville that's it that's where he needs to get to the final stage and be called up so I could definitely see this happening I I I don't think that it's it's that far-fetched to believe you don't have to squint very hard to see Edward a Royo in a Red's Jersey next year and I I I really think it could happen I think it's great that he's playing in the Arizona fall league for that reason before we go would like to invite you to become a lock on reds Insider I am offering a free 14-day trial to join me by texting Insider to 5135990234 LS it's just $4.99 a month let's talk Reds again text the word Insider to 5135990234 we are part of the lockdown podcast Network your team your Cincinnati Reds and your major league baseball every single day you know why we'll be lock down Reds every single day