Who LEADS in Receptions? | Quinn Ewers: 40 TDs? | Texas Longhorns Football | 2024 Season Predictions

welcome to on Texas football I'm Bobby Burton joined by Jerry Hamilton rod bers on Texas football guys it's a little Sunday afternoon football talk we did our season prediction yesterday uh we all came out kind of the same a little bit uh Rod you may have went a little higher than me and Jerry but at the same time uh in the same category kind of uh same area code at least let's talk a little bit of something different in more micro level today let's talk about predictions for individual players and position groups and defense Etc as a whole uh we'll do a little bit of hey is he gonna go over or under 3,500 yards passing for Quinn ERS how many takeaways for the defense what about sacks Jerry's been talking about that for almost a month now how he expects Texas to have more sacks this year or Texas needs to to have a good season uh let's start guys uh with an over and under of Quinn ERS a year ago he finished with 22 TDS and six interceptions over and under 25 TDS this year Rod Jerry whoever wants to take it first Rod go for it buddy let's go over because he's gonna stay healthy this year first time in I don't know four or five years for quen he's gonna make it through an entire season for Texas fingers crossed I knock on some wood to make sure but we're going over with that because I mean last year if he plays a couple more games and by the way we expect college football playoff add a little bit more to that potentially I got Quinn over 25 touchdowns no question all right you know what then then did I set the bar too low what if I said 28 oh what I was gonna say is I'm taking the over on 25 because I just I watched the FSU and Georgia Tech yesterday and Haynes King through 27 so Quinn better Quinn better get up to that number what do you think Jerry let's let's go back to 28 let's do 28 instead of 25 because I waffled back and forth on the number 28 touchdown passes that' be an improvement of six to Rod's point he's got an opportunity to play more games this year uh if he stays healthy uh which you know he's done some work on his body that that might be a real thing what do you think over under on 28 and then Rod you gotta come back and answer on 28 not just 25 buddy right um I'm gonna I'm gonna take the over because that means Texas played 14 games this year at least yes I like it like and now it's if it's only a 13 game 12 game season sits out a bowl game to get ready for the draft I don't know um but I think two touchdown passes a game on average um which say Quinn if you're listening that means you got to get four Saturday and about five against you Monroe okay so to really get to assure that number but I'm gonna say over at 29 total oh 29 total Rod what about you I'm still going with the over even though I will say last year you got only 12 players in college football through for at least 28 touchdowns so it put it would put him in rarified error but I'm going to go over because I'm saying Quinn stays healthy I agree with Jerry you get title game you a couple of college football playoff games and you have big H first half performances against ULM against Colorado State for Quinn so yeah I'm going with the over man I'm gonna stay positive here baby all right y'all y'all are positive I'll be the naysayer I actually was gonna go over on 25 but I'll go under on 28 I had 26 written down as the number for me uh for Quin uh last year 3,479 yards passing this year is it possible he gets to 3,800 even 4,000 what do y'all think the number is in that category for him again if he stays healthy if Texas has a good year you would think 3,800 is certainly within the uh realm of possibility right yes uh I would um 4,000 I think is that's lofty I think he had two players last year that had 4,000 yards passing college football so that not sure about because I know SAR wants to run the ball moderation um so I I'll say yes you definitely go over 3500 uh but I think I think a little short a little shy of 4,000 in my opinion maybe 38 something around there Jerry what about you buddy I've been saying and the least amount the least yards he throws for the less he throws for the better Texas runs the ball and and runs the ball in the red zone and late in games um so I'm going to go are the number was 30 3500 I I'm going to say he's healthy so I'm going to go over I'm talking like I would say 3500 to 3,800 okay I'm I'm gonna sit in that 3600 area um that 3600 area uh for Quinn this year because I for me personally if he got the 3,900 or 4,000 yards that mean the Run game wasn't quite as good as Sark wants it to be this this is the the dichotomy I had right I thought I think he's going to be in that 26 27 touchdown rate uh ratio area but I actually think he's gonna be higher on yards so I think he he is going to find a lot of opportunities between the 20s where he can gobble up a lot of yards his issues in his career at Texas in my opinion have actually been inside the 20 right uh they've moved the ball pretty easily uh between the 20s it's been inside the 20 where a lot of touchdown passes might come out of right uh and so that's where i' I've gone and so I think he's going to be over I actually think he's gonna be around 38 50 3900 maybe even 4,000 Rod I think it's he's got that kind of talent around him I don't know if he's gonna have the touchdowns to go with it that's uh that's something to watch for for all of us all right Jerry you get to go next on this one you've put down the gauntlet in the off season uh talking about sacks and how important it is for Texas to actually get quarterbacks on the ground a year ago the Longhorns gave or produced 32 sacks Ethan Burke returns he was the team leader with only 5.5 he was the team leader now Anthony Hill had five Byron Murphy who's gone had five as well but Burke and uh Hill are both back they add Trey Moore you think Baron cell might have another uptick this year Colin Simmons somewhere in there what what is y'all's take on sacks and I'm gonna give you the over and under of 35 ass they do better I'm assuming they do better but how much better over uh I think they're gonna hit 39 or 40 if they only hit 30 if they go under that number Texas probably W eight and four this year honestly uh because they got to get after the quarterback uh this is a you don't go after the edge players Texas has um Johnny nanson is going to bring more Exotics I know Rod will talk about that probably in part of his prediction but look if Texas only produced 35 sacks this year as a team that means treymore and Colin Simmons didn't have the impact that we hope and so I'm going I'm gonna go with a 40 sack number for Texas this year um and and I think these guys are I think Trey Moore and Colin Simmons along with the other guys being older I mean Ethan Burke had five and a half last year missed a game and carried his knee around in a brace for two others right so so he wasn't 100% all season but I I think I think Texas is going to get the 40 number that that would be music to my ears personally I mean I I think that's a big big uh ask that being said Trey Mo Trey Moore just may be a difference Baker for this defense because they haven't had a a true playmaker off the edge I think Ethan Burke was trying to become that at times last year Baron st's more of that just strong side old school strong side defensive end Rod what do you think over under on 35 that would be a three number Improvement yeah Gary's giving him an eight an eight spot Improvement honestly I'm probably leaning closer to Jerry now I will say that if you look at 40 sacks only 10 teams I believe in college football got to the 40 sack number if you look at 39 you talking about 15 teams in that range of 39 sacks I think Texas is capable of it though one of those teams was UTSA got 40 plus sacks and that's because of Trey Moore who's coming out to Texas so he's gonna add a few I think you got natural pass rushers on your team now I love the Exotics the NASCAR package is already happening we're hearing about it I got Texas above that number I I hope they get to 40 40 would be a big number last time you had you know around a 40 sacks as a team I mean you gota probably go back to maybe mid maybe late 2000 somewhere about that mus champ defense somewhere around there yeah and hey by the way that's a big number you're a lot of your T national champions except the Georgia team last year they all or two years ago those teams are hitting 3940 Plus in sacks that have won national championships if you go look at those Clemson teams Georgia's first team some of Nicks teams Michigan was right around that 3940 number last year there's something about that number uh that's big for these teams so I I think Texas is going to get there because of what they've added uh guys we got some other things we're going to go over here I want to do rushing leaders next Texas rushing leader last year uh obviously you didn't you you didn't throw your opinion out oh goodness uh I would say I think it's going to be over 35 but under 38 okay I'm thinking 36 uh most likely 35 36 that range I think they are going to be dramatically imp improved but I also think they're going to play teams that don't necessarily throw it as much um and that'll that will likely minimize the number of times that they have minimize the opportunities they have right I mean how many times did Kansas State last year drop back right I mean think about that compared to where they're going to be this year the league they're playing in is different Etc so I'm in that 35 36 range again an improvement because I do think Trey Moore is going to be Difference Maker I think Colin Simmons is gonna be additive uh I don't know of Anthony Hill and I let's ask let me ask youall both this do you think his numbers are actually going to improve as sacks because he's being has to be a more traditional linebacker in some respects this year and he had five last year what what do yall do yall actually think his individual numbers will from a sack perspective go up or down if they decide to Blitz him through the interior gaps more they don't need him on the edge like they did last year last year they needed him on the edge they just did not have enough pass rush presence on the edge they don't need him this year it would be a luxury but I think Jenny n's exotic looks I've talked to CJ about this he has some great numbers about it go look at that Arizona inside linebackers and how much they Blitz how many their sack numbers he may decide to Blitz Anthony Hill in the interior a little bit more that would shock the hell out of a lot of offensive mindes yeah I think he's gonna hit six this year I think he's going up one at least yep all right good going up one all right let's talk about running running back Jonathan Brooks guys 1129 yards something like that uh last year uh but you know missed the last three games effectively entirely uh sarcus always had a 10,000 yard rusher but Texas also lost the number two rusher from last year Cedric Baxter in this preseason so I'm just gonna put it to you plain does Texas have a 10,000 yard rusher most likely in the form of Jaden blue does Texas and Sark keep the 10,000 yard streak alive God this is a this is a tough one man because um you know jir Gibbs went for about 925 at Bama his one year at Bama um yesterday watching Georgia Tech and FSU the young running back for Georgia Tech who's damn good he'll play in the league by the way he had about 930 last year and those are guys that they have they probably carry it 12 15 times a game right and as much as SAR is gonna use blue as a pass receiver because he's so good there you know I I don't know I'm gonna say yes because again that means Texas plays a 14 Game season at least 70 yard 72 yards a game get you there yep bradby yeah I'm gonna say yes I'm gonna say you get there but the real question is I think Jerry just hit the nail on the head there how how often is Jaden blue used in the passing game and weaponized in the passing game I mean I usually kind of have a baseline for running backs and it's like 30 receptions can your can your a thousand yard back at Texas get you 30 receptions guys to go find a thousander back at Texas they gave you 30 receptions I mean you got to go back it's like H just Mitch was one of those guys think Eric metf did it back in the day go look at the thousand yard backs to Texas not a lot of them even get 30 receptions in the season BJ is probably in that category somewhere close to there but that to me I think is the threshold and I almost wonder if that will hurt his his his rushing numbers just because he'll get touches instead of rushes um but I I think he's a thousand yard rusher I think Sark is a little stubborn about that streak he brags about it a lot having a thousand yard back he brags about that too much by the way I think one running back had a thousand rushing and 500 receiving last year in college football Aston jinty at uh Boise State so not a power five guy doesn't happen a lot doesn't happen a lot I I'm I'm gonna go against your grain here I I just think that um I don't know that that Texas has an every down Ball Carrier I think they're gonna have to play running back commit by Committee in large part this year I I don't think now that all being said I think there's no doubt in my mind that the biggest weapon Texas has in the running game is Jaden blue yeah um but he's just not the 20 carrier guy guy I mean he could be a 13 to 15 in my eyes and maybe once or twice uh a year you you give him 18 plus but he's not man he's not the guy that you give it to necessarily when you're trying to grind out clock and get yardage in the fourth quarter um and so I'm I'm going to go below that number for you guys all right let's switch gears talk about Red Zone percentage that was a Bugaboo for the longh horns a year ago uh they scored a lot of points don't get me wrong 35 Plus a game we'll talk about that and say whether they're gonna go over and under that but the question I have for you guys they only scored touchdowns on 50% of their Red Zone drives you know is this something that you think Texas is going to imp improve on drastically I mean what's a good number there 60% 65% Rod you've studied these numbers before where do you think Texas should be aiming and do you think they can get over or under that Mark the strangest thing about the Red Zone struggles for Texas is that in 2021 they were top five in both categories touchdown prision the Red Zone and Red Zone scoring period it's unbelievable and every year they've gotten worse until last year their best year and they were one of the worst uh Red Zone offices in the country so I think it's you're just average and I think it's this is probably the number one objective emphasis priority for SAR in the offseason I bet when he talked to all those NFL coaches I guarantee you he picked their brain a little bit about Red Zone he probably went down a rabbit hole about best Red Zone offenses in college and the pros Texas will definitely improve in the red zone why because they can't get any worse so they'll get better as long as they're average I think they'll be average average probably put you at 59% 60% touchdown percentage in the Red Zone I think that's where they'll be next year yeah if they do that they're GNA improve their scoring Jerry yes I I was gonna throw out 60% if Texas hits 60% of touchdowns in Red Zone very pretty good odds there playoff team because they're GNA be doing it against a better uh defenses this year on the schedule that's true so if they hit 60% and that's the kind of number I was on same page of the rod I I think they're going to improve on that 50 uh the goal there is 60% if they do that um then Texas will more than likely be a playoff team because they're going to be playing at some really good D lines and really good opponents in the SEC that are going to be tougher to score on as the field gets condensed 60% we put them right at 70 guys like 70th in the country 65 that's where they should be yeah yep at least at least I I will say this last year to your Point ride they ranked 120th uh in red zone offense was just unacceptable yet won 12 games CRA tell me how that works right probably won't happen two years in a row let me ask you guys this so I I think that they're going to improve I don't know how much I I think 60 is a good barometer probably to your point Rod um and Jerry but let me ask you this what has to improve the most is it Quinn Ur in the red zone that has to improve the most or is it Steve sarkeesian play calling has to improve in the red zone that that kind of is out are they one and the same to a degree I third one out offensive line getting more push in the Run game to take pressure off of Quinn and SAR in the Red Zone yep that's a cheat code I'd go I by the way I agree with Jerry I think all of it's a moot point the offensive Line's dominant in the Red Zone I would go with Sark if Sark was asked at Big 12 media days hey what what did you discover about your inadequacy in the red zone and he said number one by the way I'm G Pat myself on the back because this is what I've been saying for a year bejan Rojo hangover he's like it's just really tough to call plays post bejan and Rojo because those guys could do anything in the Red Zone I just handed it off to them it was the ultimate answer to every question but I think also S and S said this second he said it was me I was a little bit too he said I was too inconsistent I didn't have an identity in the red zone I'm paraphrasing but that's essentially what he said so I think it's s because he can fix the Quinn issues by by adjusting the play calling so that it it Quinn's more compatible with he's calling in the Red Zone because I don't think that was the case last season or the year before that all right uh I think I think it was definitely more Sark and play calling although I do think Quinn he Sark was reluctant to put him in tight window situations in the Red Zone particularly after the OU game with the interception that glanced off JT Sanders hands I felt like that was that was really a come down after that all y'all y'all say though that Texas is going to improve uh in the Red Zone this I think we all think they are are going to are they going to improve on the 35.8 points per game uh tougher opponents I mean look Bert Auburn was what 29 of 35 on field goals I mean it's an insane number of attempts are they goingon to get to the red zone that much or they just GNA have to capitalize more often uh to make that that deal 35.8 higher or lower I'm gonna I'm gonna take the I'm gonna take the bait here and I'm gonna say higher and I know people are going to say well why are you you've said this about not Quinn not throwing as many touchdowns I think I think they're going to find a running game in the in the Red Zone I do believe that and I think that they will score from depth a little bit more frequently too I'm gonna go above 38 35.8 I'm going above but it's kind of a it's kind of a misleading above so last year Texas played rice in Wyoming okay and that that was your non-league games along with Bama this year you have Colorado State gave up 50 at Washington State last year to start the season uh so you replaced rice with a a team that's worse on defense um then you have ul and Monroe instead of Wyoming and you have UTSA who Texas scored 41 on UTSA and they're much more talented now better quarterback play better offensive line they're going over that number but it could be a misleading over because Texas had nine conference opponents in the Big 12 yep nine conference opponents um so I think they're GNA average more points than that this year but I think it could be misleading um I don't think they're going to average so I'm going over but I'm not going over n SEC play if that makes sense no it per it perfectly makes sense Rod yeah Jerry makes a really good point there uh but this is the thing I because I'll go over because I'm being overly optimistic here so I'm going to stick with the with my with the kind of theme for me here but guys we just talked about how bad Texas was in the Red Zone 120th in the country and touchdown percentage in the Red Zone like 90th in scoring uh percentage in the Red Zone last season do do we all you guys also know third down offense they're average to below average they're like 70th 73rd in the country when it comes to third down conversion third down offense and I think they're GNA improve on the Deep ball this year based on Quinn's finish the last season and how he was converting some of the deeper passes last year those three key areas which SAR obviously is concerned about if they improve on those areas man that offense could take a huge leap forward so I'm gonna say they're right around where they were last year just because Jerry brought up the strength of schedule is a little tougher in the SEC but I'm goingon to say the Improvement in third down offense Improvement in red zone offense and the Improvement in the Deep ball lead to them scoring you know similar numbers to last year all right Texas had 24 takeaways a year ago right 16 interceptions eight fumble recoveries let's talk about just the interceptions piece of that because I think that will uh probably play a role in this total number as well uh 16 Picks a year ago three different guys led the team jiren Thompson uh and Terrence Brooks as well as Michael Taff two of the three are gone y right uh where do y'all think Texas ends up this year and uh we know Sark is looking for more fumble recoveries and more forced fumbles this year he kind of bemoaned that at the the SEC media days uh back in July but from a interception standpoint what's what's a good number uh for Texas to shoot for and and do you think Texas is gonna do better than they did a year ago I I certainly think they will and my my purpose on this is I think Johnny nanson is GNA give them more defensive looks and create more off schedu interceptions as opposed to what Texas got last year I mean how many were I mean they were they were either bad throw a lot of were just bad throws or overthrows as opposed to forced you know what I mean I look for Texas to actually Force more more interceptions this year yep only 10 teams had more interceptions uh than Texas last year so Texas you know 16 interceptions was a really high number for him I agree with you about the Exotic looks from Johnny nson I think that Skies is going to help them uh confuse quarterbacks I just don't know if they're going to play against enough passing offenses um and so if they get up in some games and that's asking line an SEC play then you can force teams into predictable passing situations like you did against ufh and TCU last year and K States uh I don't know if that's going to happen a lot in the SEC and also I wonder if you're just not playing enough pass happy teams Colorado state will be Mississippi state will be other than that I don't know if you play a lot of teams that want to lean heavily on the pass uh so that's why I say I think you you're around the same number I think you could get a slight Improvement maybe 17 to 18 but not very much Jerry yeah yeah I'm uh I'm going over because um again three the three nonconference games the sophomore quarterback Colorado State threw 16 last year right now so did Haynes King he didn't throw one against FSU on Saturday but then UTSA Frank Harris is gone new starting quarterback playing in DKR uh even Michigan has a new starting quarterback by the way General starting at ulm's never thrown a pass in a college game Texas faces eight new starting quarterbacks at their prospective schools this year so I'm looking at the schedule how many new quarterbacks with doesn't mean that Blake shapen doesn't have experience but he's going to Mississippi State he's going to a new school new new coaching staff new players around him there's a lot of change on that Texas schedule this year and I think plus what Johnny nanson uh is is going to bring as well so I'm going to go over maybe like 18 but the Rod's point you know in the SEC I don't know the ball's not going to be in the air as much as it was in the Big 12 last year all right and then guys all offseason we've talked about the receiver room and the variety Texas has uh the talent within it both young and old transfers returners Etc I've got a question for you guys uh and it's not necessarily about a particular um thousand yard Stat or who leads in touchdowns who's going to lead this team in receptions out of those re out of that receiver group is it jonte cook is it Silas Balden is it uh I don't know is is it Isaiah Bond I mean who's gonna lead this team in receptions in y'all's eyes I'm I'm gonna go and I'm gonna put myself out there a little bit I'm going with Jon cook I know that that is not necessarily a popular one uh for for some people that uh have been talking because Silas bolden's been doing so well Isaiah bond is going to get on the field because of his big playability but I think Jon cook may end up being that guy that Texas leans on a little bit more this year because I think he does he he runs good routes and I think he's gonna be a guy that gets open more often uh particularly underneath and in the mid-range for Quinn I'll let you guys duke it out on who else I went with jonte cook that's my answer Bobby Bobby guaranteed a $20 Super Chat from UT boy congrats um look I'm going Silas Balden over Matthew golden at the at the tape in the last game I I I think Silas Balden I think sar's gonna find the way to get the ball in Silas balton's hands to let him do his thing and he is the let him do his thing most receiver on this team so that is that's going to be short passing game intermediate passing game he will compete for the ball um that that could be that could be your forward pitch in motion right in a sweet motion there's going to be a lot of way screen game with Silas Balon there's gonna be a lot of ways I think sark's gonna get the ball in his hands this year because he's the guy that you get it to and let him do his thing H but I think Matthew golden has a really good report with coin ERS and I think as the season moves along those numbers are going to start to creep up for Matthew golden hey Jerry one of the things that Sark said about Silas Balden and Quinn Silas Balton despite his size or limited size they both said that he has a great catch radius like he actually will go up and get balls you know that that's that's pretty impressive Rob what do you what do you have to say oh man those some good ones I love the jante cook um suggestion that you threw out there because he's been with Quin longer knows the system better than any other other wi receivers out and I remember late last year when SAR was like we gotta start playing jante cook I remember he said that late in the year last year uh but since you got cook and I I like Jerry's pick about bow I think B's gonna make he gonna make more wild plays I feel like that anybody uh on the team next season this upcoming season I'll go with Matthew golden and I'll go I I've been hearing a lot about how he's consistent in his route running uh quarterbacks love guys who are at the same depth they know the timing of the route uh they're disciplin their route running seems like he's that guy and he's you know he's been you know consistent this is a guy that at UF AG show ability to be a consistent receiver can catch at the short level intermediate level possibly even the Deep level too so I think he's a three Lev receiver I think BN might lead you in yards but I think another guy's going to lead you in catches all right I hope everybody H is having a good Sunday if you have any other over unders or specific topics you want us to address please ask us in the comments or ask us on our next uh live stream that comes tonight at 7 o'clock uh myself Jerry Hamilton Rod babers I think CJ will join us as well we'll talk to you guys later tonight thanks for watching and uh I just hope uh Texas goes over 10 and two uh that I predicted yesterday all right you guys have a good one hook up hook them