Should You FADE Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds? | MLB Betting Picks 9/9 | Payoff Pitch

Introduction welcome in folks payoff pitch action networks major league baseball betting podcast Brandon glashen joined by Shan zero today on this Monday morning we come to you September 9th uh coming down the wire here in this baseball season nine game slate so it is an off day for many teams around the league there's a makeup game today with the Reds and the Braves and that actually happens to be a game that encapsulates a lot of what we do normally on this podcast normally we do the F the public segment Underdog segment and we always start with Best Bets Sean you've identified this game uh as a game that you want to Target yourself 85% of the bets 91% of the cash coming in on Atlanta so it's our fade Reds vs Braves Picks the public game it's our Underdog spot what well let's start with this you're G to have the pick but why did this game jump off the page for you yeah my biggest projected edge of today slate but I give the Reds a big starting pitching Advantage with Nick Martinez going against Charlie Morton Martinez a guy I think who's going to opt out of his contract this offseason he got a year $25 million deal from the Reds this offseason after pitching mostly out of the bullpen for the Padres last year is a guy who went over to Korea came back after having an earlier career in the major leagues but he's showing career best skills this season and having a career best year 2.2 wins above replacement as I said he got a twoyear $25 million contract last offseason Seth Lugo got three years 45 million from the royals with a player option for his third year I think Martinez opts out and gets something pretty comparable to what Lugo got last year he's going to go from two 25 to probably getting 345 with a player option attached on the back end now he is in his mid-30s so I doubt a team wants to lock him up for too long but he has Elite command and that should provide him with a pretty high floor throughout the rest of his career because he doesn't rely on stuff he's a below average strikeout rate guy but he has a leite command and he limits hard contact which I think is probably the most important skill in his entire body of work 96 percentile and hard hit rate this season 92nd in average exit velocity he was 95th and 998th in terms of percentile rankings by those hard- hit stats last year so able to limit hard contact but this year the walk rate is what down drastically 3.6% he was previously around 9% which is much closer to the Major League average Major League average around 10% so Martinez has gone from having above average command to having amongst the best command of all pitchers in baseball he is a 3% walk rate or 3.6% the only two guys ahead of him are the same guys who led MLB in walk rate last year George Kirby and Zack effin so walk rate is very sticky command is very sticky it tends to carry over from one year to the next and considering the lack of stuff he has you know the strikeout rate being below average I think that is a sign that he can continue to pitch extremely well even into his late 30s having Elite command and limiting the hard contact there's really nothing different in his you know pitch profile of this season the the velocity is relatively the same the pitch mix is relatively the same compared to Prior Seasons she's pounding the Zone more The Zone rate is at a career high 52.5% it doesn't rank you know among the highest Zone rates in baseball he's still like 40th amongst 100 plus qualified pitchers but he went from barely throwing the ball in the zone being amongst the the league bottom of pitchers throwing the ball in the zone to now an above average you know rate of pitches in the strikes Z and it's clearly working for him because as I said you know one of the best walk rates in baseball but also a 355 expected ra a 355 bot ra the location plus rating has gone up from 102 to 109 year-over-year so Martinez looks like a phenomenal pitcher Charlie Morton on the other end his indicators are about to run worse 4.6 expected eray 4.4 body aray as I said Martinez closer to three and a half by both of those measurements Morton's pitch modeling metrics have also tumbled the season now he's he's been kind of in a three-year decline um you know as he approached his late 30s now he's 40 years old the Home Run rate started to slip two years ago the expected indicators started to slip a little bit more last year but this year you see the continued slippage of those underlying indicators and also the drop off in both velocity and Stuff Plus ratings because his stuff plus figure is down 11 points year-over-year from 106 to 95 his velocity across all of his pitches is down between 0.8 and 1.1 miles an hour every single pitch fastball Sinker curveball change up every single pitch um and as a result you know the barrels have increased the hard hit rate has increased so so Morton for his career allow has allowed 086 home runs per D Innings which is tremendous anything under one is great I think the league average is around 1.1 past three years he's at 1.19 home runs per nine innings so over the past three years he's allowing home runs at a 38% clip higher than he was over the first 15 years or whatever it was of his career the the Home Run rate has climbed drastically um and you know that correlates with the barrel rate uh and the hard hit rates have increased as well but he he just has a cur ball at this point there's nothing else in his Arsenal that is even a League average offering even even last season the change up was still a League average pitch the curveball has gone from a 145 149 Stuff Plus rating in 2021 down to 122 this season the expected wo on the pitch has risen every single year for the past 5 years and has gone from 221 up to 260 so it's still a very good pitch but it's no longer like the best curveball in baseball you know which you can get away with one stupid Elite pitch you can't really get away with one above average pitch and then everything else being below average so big starting pitching Advantage I think I've Quantified that here's the other points on this game the offenses are relatively the same 18th and 20th against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days or since in the second half Atlanta has the better bullpen in terms of results they're top two by expected F expected ra Red's closer to 11th 15th uh but the Reds have the better pitch modeling metrics the Reds of a 387 body array uh Atlanta at 4.4 Reds of a 104 pitching plus rating Atlanta at 100 again in the second half so some points that the bullpens are pretty comparable the offense has been very comparable but the Reds have a a clear starting pitching Advantage their starter is a full run better by expected indicators now one qualifier is the spot because it is a little tough you mentioned this is a makeup game I think from June uh the Reds were in New York yesterday they had to travel overnight to Atlanta they're there for one day and then they're traveling again overnight to St Louis tonight so that's a little bit of a tricky spot getting the double travel Day within 24 hours they're basically only in Atlanta to play this game and then they're leaving town again Atlanta was home yesterday didn't have to travel Etc so the spot certainly favors the Braves but I think everything else my projection on this game I I made Atlanta or I made uh the Reds plus 122 for the full game plus 108 for the first five innings so the projection you know where the market odds are where the money's coming in uh and then certainly you know the starting pitching Advantage with martinez all points to Cincinnati so would take the Reds down to about plus 115 for the first five innings and then plus uh 112 or better for the full game those will be my price targets all right the the rescheduled game I never thought we needed after that uh after the breakdown from Shawn there you go Cincinnati and Atlanta 640 uh a rescheduled game Nick Martinez I mean I think and that's the market now for like his kind I I think the Lugo comp's pretty good um yeah they were teammates last year too which is you know kind of odd the Padre the Padre's wouldn't mind having either or both of them at this point just to round out that starting staff for the playoffs but yeah they they reallocated their money they they shifted things and uh they probably wouldn't have been able to get Dylan C had they not jettison those two guys so upgraded from Lugo and uh Martinez into cease but Martinez has been phenomenal and yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a nice deal this offseason as I said even in his late 30s between the command and the the hard hit suppression I I feel like somebody will give him a nice two threeyear deal okay you've got two more uh game looks and then you want to do a quick minute on division uh Futures whatnot um Guardians white socks over eight and a half and then you like the Toronto Blue Jays actually hosting the Mets um it's a pick and price with Blackburn and Basset on the mound Basset on the mound for Toronto give us both your angles on those yeah Blackburn coming Mets vs Blue Jays Picks off the I he took a line drive off of the finger so I'm not super concerned about his health coming back but at the same time um he could struggle with this command you know the Mets are in the thick of the playoff race I don't know how that finger feels is the finger 100% is it 85% and any difference in you know Effectiveness or grip strength from that one finger could impact you know his command on a specific day but he hasn't even been particularly good this season black bre is a 455 expected ra 443 bot ER Chris Basset has the better expected ra and better bought er uh 437 424 he also has the higher strike at minus walk rate 14% versus 12% and the Jay's offense has quietly been extremely good in the second half they're fourth in the second half 114 WRC plus they are second in the past 30 days at 117 they're the Mets over both spans the Mets are 11th both in the second half and over the past 30 days and it's not just uh Guerrero Guerero at 238 WC Plus in the second half but will Wagner 152 Spencer herwitz 122 Addison Burger 115 Dalton VAR 111 and George Springer who looked like a corpse in the second half 102 WC Plus in the second half so the Jay's offense they' they've six guys who have been above average hitters in the second half Vlad has obviously been one of the best hitters if not the best in baseball over that span but yeah I give the Jays an offensive Advantage I give them the starting pitching Edge their Bullpen is the one concerned but even that they don't rank is a bottom 10 Bullpen uh they're closer to League average in the second half and the Mets have a slight Bullpen Edge but I think the Jays are the better defensive team the better offens of late and the slightly better starting pitcher so I made the Jays minus 1112 would bet them up to about minus 104 and then the Guardians and white socks over eight and a half I projected this total closer to Guardians vs White Sox Picks nine and a half we're waiting on a white sock starting pitcher confirmation preliminarily we do have a Nick Nini who has been awful this season Nini eight starts a 779 ra 6.7 expected ra a six bot ra but in 32 in third Innings he has 32 walks incredible 31 hits 33 runs just 24 strikeouts so he's given up more walks more runs wow and more hits than he has strikeouts this season honestly impressive to to do I don't know if I've ever seen that in a sample of greater than 25 Innings generally because if you're giving up that many hits walks and runs in 20 plus Innings they're like we can't give you the ball again uh but yeah I mean astounding numbers for NRI thus far but Joey cantillo who's going to start for the Guardians is confirmed 771 ra 612 expected ra 506 bought ra 97 Stuff Plus 93 pitching plus I should mention in the Shen he has League average stuff 100 Stuff Plus the command though is awful command is in the location pluses in the 80s 86 pitch plus so both of these guys well below Major League average in terms of pitch modeling metrics 100 being League average just to reiterate cantillo 93 Nini 86 both of them have an ER north of seven uh and even the Guardians Bullpen I I think that is lending it to this over projection for me as well the Guardians Bullpen which has this reputation is being amongst the best in baseball did rank amongst the best in baseball in the first half in the second half maybe they're getting a little fatigue 13th 13th in expected fit 12th in strikeout minus walk rate 17th in bot ER the white socks too have also improved from about 30th or 28th to 24th 22nd in some of those indicators Strike Up minus Walker expected fit but by pitch modeling there's still 30th in the second half 498 body 96 pitching plus so I think the Guardians Bullpen has taken a a hit in the second half and I don't think the white socks have improved their Bullpen even though the results would say that they have they still rank amongst the worst teams by pitch modeling metric so yeah Guardians White Sox over eight and a half you could bet that up to nine at minus 110 projected that at 9.6 and then the Toronto Blue Jays up to minus 104 and as I said before the Reds my Best Bets for today uh first five2 out plus 115 and then full game two out plus 112 okay very good um and it's is there is there is there a wind factor is there a weather ballpark factor for Chicago Cleveland because what I'm kind of I'm kind of St that that total is not a tick higher I know we're into September and it's not 95 degrees out and humid yeah I I think there's just been a lot of resistance at the 8 and a half uh you know probably from sharp money I as I said I made it 9.5 I did upgrade the park factor for today relative to normal day it's 78 degrees 8 m hour winds blowing out to left field so if anything it's over weather you know I don't really know why this total didn't push to nine yet I would imagine there have been some big bets that came in on the under eight and a half that show if they push it to nine like they're going to get substantial bets you know because nine is obviously key number eight and a half is not but at the same time maybe you know there could be a setup you know being placed by big money to try to get it to not like usually what you see is initial before limits open up the big bets come in on the over eight and a half at - 120 but they really want it to get to nine so they can bet the under nine they're they're betting the eight and a half to move the market but really just duping the market so they could place bigger butts on the under nine I'm actually surprised that that's not what happened because I don't think it has ever touched nine at any point at every book they've just moved the juice up on the eight and a half to minus 125 I even saw minus 128 so these books seem very hesitant to push this total to nine but you know projecting it at nine and a half not seeing a reason why I should make it lower and also not having um there's nobody has umpire information as of right now typically umpire information is going to come out you know three hours before the start of the game so nobody has umpire information yet either which that would normally be the one thing where I'm like maybe I'm missing you know the Umpire angle or something an Umpire adjustment nobody would have that information as of right now so yeah I'm surprised it hasn't touched nine yet and it does make me a little nervous but half to bet the hour considering where I have it okay very good uh let's do a quick Futures uh divisions minute uh what's your latest MLB Futures Discussion thought Sean uh up to date now with take it whatever you'd like yeah so we talked on Friday about the Yankees and Orioles the Yankees were half game behind the oral heading into the weekend they were plus 110 to win the AL East at the time plus even even money you know at worst uh minus 110 at worst I said take plus money on them at that point they're now 70% win the AL East after gaining a game over the weekend I mean it's shocking how much the odds adjusted and I was surprised to see that the projections thought that that was accurate because Kota how now has the Yankees at 70% they're between 60 to 64% everywhere else from Fang graphs ATC the X but if you average those out average those four projections out you get to minus 177 and their best available odds are about minus 160 consensus closer to minus 180 so if you wanted to bet the Yankees at minus 160 right now could not stop you because there is projected value on them you know especially if you look at that picota projection which would have them closer to minus 240 but even the average of those four projections you still get a justifiable Edge on them uh that's said I don't really want to lay minus 70 on the 8S at this point what we're going to do is wait until September 24th to 26th because that's when the Major League Baseball playoffs start and you may say Sean the Major League Baseball playoffs don't start until October and I would tell you that the Yankees host the Orioles from September 24th to 26 and the Braves host the Mets from September 24th to 26th and those are going to end up being deao playoff series the Yankees versus Orioles for the AL East the Mets versus Braves for the potential final and a wild card spot I really think those two series are going to be ultra determinative for who ends up getting these spots now they're 15 days away a lot could still happen between now and then but I don't really see much movement from these teams over their schedules in the next few weeks so yeah the the Yankees orial series I think is going to be super crucial on September 24th to 26 if the Yankees you know lose a game today and the Orioles pick one up you know over the next couple days consider jumping on on the Yankees again at plus money you know if they get back to plus money I think the projection value is going to stay there until that head-to-head series that they have so just keep an eye on Baltimore New York if the Yankees get to plus money again I would like them probably again I like them where they are currently I just don't want to lay juice on it and I think that Gap there's a potential it could close before that three game set they have uh two weeks from today or 15 days from today uh the Kansas City Royals the AL Central the Guardians are about to have a three-game set against the White Soxs The Royals are about to travel to New York to play the Yankees so yes there's technically value on the Royals if you go by I believe ATC projections right now or the badx one of them had the Royals at 20% you can get the Royals at plus 450 to plus 500 to win the AL Central I would wait though I would wait a few days because the likelihood that the Guardians add onto their two and a half game division lead while the Royals are playing the White Soxs while the guardians or sorry I should say while the Royals are playing the Yankees Guardians playing the white sock there's a likelihood that that League grows you know more often than not in the next three days I would wait because the guardian schedule after that is miserable and the Royal schedule after that lightens up significantly so I think you're going to get the peak price on Kansas City to win the AL Central three days from now or four days from now whenever those two series conclude but before Friday as of Thursday night uh you should be able to find Peak value on the Royals if you want to time things if you want to hedge out on our Guardians position as well NL W card we'll also discuss AL West here we we'll wrap up with two teams I still like to win the World Series there's no surprise I've discussed them in recent weeks giv out their Futures but the ANL wild card so three spots right so the the percentage chance that teams can make the n w card should add up to 300% 100% for each of the three spots the Padres that are about 91% the Diamondbacks are at 84% the Braves are at 73% so 987 and then the Mets are at 50% that combined percentage 298 so every other team the Cardinals uh Giants yeah the Giants 2% combin chance to make the playoffs right Padres Braves Mets uh Padres Braves Mets Diamondbacks 28% combined of the 300% to make the wild card spot so it's it's amongst these four teams more likely than not um the Mets though of the third toughest remaining schedule they play Toronto as I said they play two series against the Phillies they play at Atlanta they play Milwaukee and they play the very frisky Washington Nationals who have brought up their team for next year and look like a lot of fun the potteries have the easiest schedule of those four teams that's why they're at 91% they also have a slight lead the Diamondbacks are at 84% as I said I think this is between the Mets and the Braves for the final spot and I think it comes down to that series on September 24th to 26 and who wins that it will be in Atlanta but that is kind of how I you know rank out those teams and it it sort of obviously goes by their divisional position but also they are sort of ranked in order of schedule difficulty the rest of the way the Padre's have the easiest schedule the Mets have the most difficult schedule and that is also where they fall in terms of projected percentages and standings so worth you know considering that just for purposes like that Mets brav series September 24th 26 if you like the Mets to make the playoffs maybe just wait to bet them in that series because getting even money right now laying minus 110 right now on a team that is literally 50% like on the nose to make the playoffs would not recommend that but the Padres I still like you know as a World Series Contender as a wild card Contender they've gotten U Darvish Joe Musgrove Fernando tatis back in recent weeks it was unclear if Darvish was going to come back at all he was on administrative leave or you know some sort of personal leave for a situation he was dealing with it wasn't all injury related he had an injury but it was a personal reason why he was gone well he's back in the fold now um so I think the pad are in Prime position for the playoffs they strike out less often than any team in the National League offensively getting tatis back certainly boost their ceiling offensively fangraphs has them at 8.3 right now 8.3% right now to win the World Series that is plus 1104 implied I would want 15 to one or better would be fine taking that I I would take 14 to one or better on the padr to win the World Series I would take seven to one or better on their NL penan ODS and then just to flip back to the aest the ashra have four and a half game lead over the Mariners I think they still have three games head tohe head against one another but Houston is like 95 to 98% to make the playoffs and win that division fangraphs has them at 11.2% to win the World Series that is plus 792 implied I took 10 to one a few weeks ago I would still bet them down to about 9 to1 to win the World Series second lowest strikeout rate in the American League aside from the Kansas City Royals and as we always discuss the Royals a much higher strikeout rate on the road than at home and then will not have HomeField advantage in the playoffs by the way still a chance the ash could close down on the Royals could close down on the Guardians for the number two SE if those teams end up faltering in the final couple weeks still have a few games to make up so I doubt they get there but I do like them more than the rest of the teams in the American League field and ultimately settled on the two teams with what I would project for the lowest strikeout rates in the playoffs in either League which would be Houston and San Diego we've discussed it throughout the year but that is the one stat if I had to choose one stat that correlates the success in the playoffs not striking out offensively is probably the key number and both of those teams excel in that area the ashers just got TI Tucker back as well so you know seeing him back in the lineup healthy well before the playoffs certainly upgrades their chances too it's not like he's coming back just in time for the playoffs we don't know what he's going to be at least he has a few weeks to get himself back in forth and they uh they go head-to-head actually uh Tuesday the or pardon me Monday the 16th through the 18th yeah World Series preview for me uh and I been taking pretty much every $5 $10 Free Bet odds boost whatever from all the books that offer them through football weekend and I've been parlaying the Padres and the Astros to make the World Series together about 30 to1 so if you want something to do if you if you don't know what to do with your $5 free bets if they're going to expire little parlay on the Padres and Astros pennant winners respectively at about 30 to one okay very good there's a good little outlook for the rest of the season from Sean uh we return for more payoff pitch Like and Subscribe! I can't remember are we doing a show tomorrow I'm I'm all confused after football I believe yeah I think we're still on the regular schedule through tomorrow uh I'll be here with Tanner mcrath on thurs well Friday's episode uh because now we're our Monday and Friday recordings will be back on Monday and Friday mornings uh but yeah stay tuned throughout the rest of the regular season then in the playoffs we should be going back to a daily schedule uh so we'll have daily previews for you in audio format throughout the postseason yeah Monday through Friday at the very least uh for that particular format we're back to doing mornings yes that's right the old format was Monday Tuesday Friday um it's a whole thing we're not doing it the night before anymore because we got a lot we got a lot of crap going on at night now all right Sha zerillo find him in the Action Network app at zerillo his uh his analysis his writeups for uh today's slate the picks as well um and we'll be back at it uh Sean myself and Tanner McGrath coming your way Tuesday the 10th thanks for listening to payoff pitch we are action Network's major league baseball betting podcast best of luck everybody we'll talk to you again tomorrow