Polymarket's 2024 Election Forecast Gives Trump A Slight Lead

Trump is once again the favorite according to Paulie Market's 2024 election forecast he has a 52% chance at returning to the White House while Harris has just a 47% chance at being elected the next president and so in this video we'll be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on poly Market state byst state odds to see where Harris and Trump stand on the all important path to 270 electoral votes we'll Begin by filling in the solid States for both candidates these are states where either Harris or Trump have a 95% chance or more of winning this November and so starting off with the safe blue States we have Washington Oregon California Colorado Hawaii Illinois and most of the Northeast including New York Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Road Island New Jersey which barely made the 95% cut as well as Delaware Maryland District of Colombia and the first district of Maine for Trump he is going to easily carry Utah Wyoming Idaho Montana North and South Dakota all of Nebraska except the second district Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia Indiana and South Carolina and with all the solid States filled in Harris takes an early lead with 191 electoral votes to Trump at 122 but we still have many states to go over and Trump is going to receive a big Boost from his likely States likely states are categorized by odds between 75 to 95% for either candidate these states are going to be significantly more competitive than the solid States but either Harris or Trump still do maintain a noticeable advantage and so beginning with the likely blue States we have Minnesota this is Governor Tim Wall's home state walls was recently chosen to be Harris's running mate and looking at the graph you can see just how low the odds went for Biden before he dropped out last month in fact at one point he had just a 56% chance at winning a state Democrats haven't lost since 1972 And so by choosing walls as her running mate Harris has sort of avoided disaster in Minnesota and that is why she is the favorite she has a 94% chance at winning Minnesota is going to be a likely Blue State we also have New Mexico a state where Republicans are proba going to outperform their 2020 margin when they lost by nearly 11 points KLA Harris has a 91% chance at winning before Biden dropped out the odds for Democrats in the state went down to just a two and three chance and so as Hispanic voters continue to shift away from Democrats they are going to have more and more trouble withing States like New Mexico which have a Hispanic majority electorate and so today Harris is the favorite but she isn't in the most comfortable position a 10% chance for Trump is not insignificant but as of right now Carris is the favorite and we will be giving her the state's five electoral votes next up we have Virginia a state Biden probably would have lost if he had stayed in the race in fact the odds for the incommon president here went as low as 57% right before he dropped out but with KLA Harris down the race Democrats are doing slightly better they have an 85% chance at holding on to a state that they won by a double digit margin four years ago Virginia was shifting to the left throughout most of the early 2000s and the 2010s however in just the last four years it has shown signs of going back to the right before 2008 Virginia was a generally conservative State however in 2021 despite having gone to the left for over a decade the state elected a republican governor in Glenn yunan and so Trump is on track to performing better than he did here four years ago as polling for Harris in Virginia hasn't been the greatest the Commonwealth of Virginia is also going to be likely blue and so will New Hampshire a state that has been close in the past especially in 2016 Trump came within half a percentage point of defeating Hillary Clinton in the granite state but today KLA Harris does have a slight edge with an 82% chance at holding on to a state Biden won by seven points in the last election and the final likely blue state is going to be the state of Maine it's two at large votes are expected to go to the vice president she has an 83% chance at winning here so Maine will be likely blue and so will the second district of Nebraska KLA Harris has a 78% chance at holding on to the district that Biden flipped in 2020 before we continue only 12% of you guys are actually subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below we're now going to get into the likely States for the former president states he has between a 75 to a 95% chance at winning and so some of these are going to be pretty obvious I mean starting off in Alaska of course Trump is going to win here for a third time in a row he has a 91% chance at holding on to the state so Alaska is going to be likely red we also have Iowa and Ohio two states that used to be part of the Obama Coalition in both 2008 and 2012 in a way Obama won Iowa by nearly 10 points and Ohio by nearly five in 2012 he did slightly worse but still won them by comfortable margins fast forward just four years in 2016 Trump flips both of these states and wins them by larger margins Iowa by 9.4 Ohio by 8.1 they are now firmly within the Republican categories just look at Iowa Trump has a 92% chance at winning Ohio Trump has an 88% chance at Victory so there's no doubt Trump is going to win Iowa and Ohio for a third time in a row the second district of Maine Trump has a 78% chance at holding on to so it's going to be likely red and we are left with two more states that will fall into likely Trump category I think they're pretty obvious what they are we have Texas and Florida a combined 70 electoral votes these two states make up a huge chunk of Trump's final electoral T and you see here he basically ties up Harris with just victories in the second and the third largest states in the country by population starting off with Texas Trump has an 87% chance at winning the lonar state for a third time in a row Republicans haven't lost Texas since 1976 and the state is still very conservative Democrats want you to think they can win it but that's pretty unlikely in 2020 when Trump was supposed to win taxes by 1% he ended up winning by nearly six Democrats put hundreds of millions of dollars into advertising in Texas the state is not going to flip blue for at least a few decades and by the time it does Republicans are going to have completely taken over the Midwest so it does balance out in favor of the GOP Texas is going to remain likely red while Florida has not voted for any candidate by a likely margin since 2004 the elections here in both 08 and 2012 were very competitive it was close in 2016 as well Trump won by three points in 2020 however in just the last four years Florida has probably shifted to the right by nearly 8 to 10 points its governor and one of its senators were reelected in 2022 by 19 and 16 point margins Trump is probably going to win Florida by nearly 10 points and that is why he has an 84% chance at holding on to the Sunshine State a state that used to always be one of the top Battlegrounds today it's barely mentioned Florida is a red State and it's easily going to go to the former president and so with just the lean and tilt states remaining Harris leads 226 to 219 but Trump is going to take back the lead with his lean States lean states are states where either candidate has between a 55 to a 75% chance at winning so these states really could go both ways upsets are more than possible here but one candidate still maintains a very slight Edge and so we're going to begin in North Carolina where Donald Trump won by 1% in 2020 Joe Biden lost the state by a very narrow margin this may not seem like it's the best for the former president but if Trump couldn't win North Carolina in 2020 amidst a very positive electoral environment for Democrats it's very unlikely Harris is going to be able to do what Biden couldn't four years ago North Carolina has only gone blue once since 1976 and that was Barack Obama's victory in 2008 when it was the closest state in the entire country today Trump has a 60% chance at holding on to the Tar Hill State and winning it for a third time and he is probably going to do so North Carolina will fall into the Le Republican column and we also have its neighbor Georgia The Peach State is generally conservative it reelected its Republican Governor Brian Kemp by a likely margin in 2022 and it just narrowly went to Biden by a quarter of a percentage point four years ago in fact prior to 2020 Trump won Georgia by over five points in 2016 and so Trump is probably going to take the peach state back this November just like in North Carolina there's no way Harris is going to do better than Biden and that is what the market is thinking as well as Donald Trump has a 60% chance to win here as well so Georgia The Peach State will be the final lean Republican state on our map for Harris she is the slight favorite in two of these upper Midwestern states these three states are going to be among the most important KLA Harris has to win all three of them if she want wants to clinch the presidency if Trump even just wins one out of the three it's very unlikely that Harris can cross 270 electoral vote some very surprising things are going to have to happen and so beginning in Wisconsin kamla Harris has a 57% chance at winning this is traditionally been the most conservative out of the three upper Russell States but today it seems that people think Wisconsin is going to vote to the left of Pennsylvania but a 57 7% chance is not too significant Trump still has an over 4 and 10 chance at winning and so this race really is a tossup Republicans have a good chance here too we're just going to have to wait and see what happens because remember in 2016 nobody thought that Republicans were going to be able to flip these upper Midwestern states that's why Clinton didn't campaign in Wisconsin for 6 months before the election in November and I mean these three states were supposed to easily fall into the blue column but they ended up going for Trump and Trump really did do very well in the midwest 8 years ago he flipped nearly the entire thing I mean just look at the contrast from 2012 to 2016 in 2020 yes Biden won the three blue all states back but by very narrow margins in fact Biden's margin Wisconsin in 2020 was lower than Trump's from 2016 but as of right now KLA Harris has given Democrats sub momentum and so she still holds on to the state but if things continue to progress as they have been over the last two weeks Trump is probably going to take the lead in the betting markets here very soon but as of right now Wisconsin is going to be lean Democratic we also have its neighbor Michigan The Wolverine state is on track to go to Harris with a 63% chance that she in fact wins and so out of the three blue wall States Michigan tends to be the most liberal it's probably going to vote to the left of both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for a third time in a row but as of right now it's still going to be close Trump still has a very good chance but Harris is ever so slightly the favorite into the three remaining states are the three tilt States and before you fill those in both Harris and Trump are tied at 251 electoral votes and so these tilt states are states where either candidate has less than a 55% chance at winning so the odds will range from 50 to 55 for the favorite we're going to begin in Nevada where Trump has taken back the lead he now has a 54% chance at flipping a state he's never won before in fact no Republican has won Nevada since 2004 and it would be a pretty big blow to Democrats if they do in fact lose the silver state now this is not impossible though because Republicans did win the governor ship in 2022 even though the incoming Democrat was in the race so Nevada generally has been shifting to the right and it could very well go in favor of the former president this November we also have neighboring Arizona where Democrats won very narrowly in 2020 by just 0.31% and just like Georgia it doesn't take all too much for Trump to be able to win these two states back and that's why right now he is the favorite he has a 53% chance at taking a state he won by nearly four points back into his column and so Arizona will be tilt Republican 2 and this will put Trump just two electoral votes away from the White House and finally we're left with just Pennsylvania which will decide the outcome of the election if Trump wins it he's basically guaranteed to be the next president president even if Harris comes out on top in States like Arizona and Nevada Pennsylvania is just that important for the Harris campaign but unfortunately for her Donald Trump is once again the favorite in the Keystone State he has a 51% chance at winning Republicans lead Democrats by just 1% this is due to a rounding error that's why it's over 100 but Pennsylvania right now is on track to go to the GOP based on where people's money are so the state will be killed red and it will give Trump enough electoral votes to clinch the presidency for a second time with 287 electoral votes to Harris at 251 thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below