Did Trump Give Worst Debate Performance EVER??? | Lichtman Live #73

Four 3 two one one coming to you live it's Lick's been live say what's up to the people Dad hey first show after after the debate we have a full show we had a brief one last time we'll now have a full show reflect on the debate after a couple of days but remember I deliberately issued my prediction based on the keys before the debate to demonstrate the big message which you all know it's governing not campaigning that counts right and I just wanted to start the show with uh our dog Kiko he's uh he's here he's safe he has not been targeted or eaten by any immigrants I just I just wanted to show the people that he we can Mark Kiko is safe all right you know someone sent me something called song of kaml in the wrong key a big critique of the of the key supposedly of course totally ludicrous and what they said was you got to turn the social unrest key against her because millions of armed migrants are invading our cities and towns millions of armed and dangerous people are in invading our cities and towns and what about all those pet owners in Aurora who have to worry about the migrants it's unbelievable how this nonsense is getting spread you know I'm always open to reasoned intelligent critiques of the keys no keys up no system is perfect but the critiques I get are about as off the- wall as what you heard from Donald Trump in the debate yeah no doubt I actually um I actually did a little bit of research into this cuz I was curious cuz even JD Vance claimed after the debate that they had first and secondhand accounts of immigrants eating Deb eating pets so I have a little I have a little uh class session for you Dad so I looked it up this um this rumor started with a Facebook post of somebody quoting something like their girlfriend's cousin who claimed this is not a joke this is for real who claimed that somebody had stolen and eaten their cat the second thing they say is that there's a video and there is a video of a woman in Ohio it's disgusting attacking a cat but that woman is an American citizen she's not an immigrant the third thing they say is um there's this video of this YouTuber who goes around and um talks to the people of Springfield Ohio so I watched this video 25 minutes that I spent 25 minutes watching this video this YouTuber oh my God how'd you endure that it was tough this YouTuber went around and went up to people and said hey are immigrants eating cats and some people who were standing on the street were like yeah provided no evidence for it they're like yeah I heard that's true yeah someone said oh yeah I saw that on Facebook some other guy said oh yeah they drive around in a white truck so all these firsthand accounts that they say they have are just people on the street claiming it to be true without providing any real evidence and of course the City Commissioner said there's no actual substantial evidence to this so I've done some some Republican governor of Ohio said the same thing the Republican governor right of course and um yeah so um you know if you drove down the street and asked people hey have you been abduct abducted by aliens you would probably find people who would say oh yeah I've been abducted by aliens so oh you'd probably find more saying that than talking about eating cats right so this is you know this is the firsthand evidence they have are this YouTube video of some guy driving around asking people on the street if it's real of course some people he ask on the street also say no it's not real I've never heard or seen anything like that this video that they say they have is actually an American citizen um and the original rumor started with a Facebook post of someone quoting again something like their their boyfriend's cousin so there you go I've done a full Deep dive on this issue Dad wow I'm really proud of you you proved what we all knew anyway but didn't have the total proof that all this was fabricated but look this is nothing new this is Donald Trump's Mo he'll fabricate anything that he thinks will help him you know he fabricated the story of flying on a helicopter with Willie Brown the former who once dated decades ago kamla Harris and supposedly they barely survived a helicopter crash and Willie Brown told her told him all kinds of terrible things about kamla Harris all that is true except for a few small things he's never been on a h helicopter with Willie Brown never been in a helicopter in California that nearly crashed and Willie Brown never told him any trash about kamla Harris other than that it's all the gospel truth or you know the big lie he told during the debate that uh Kamala Harris went to talk to Putin and tried to talk him out of invading Ukraine and he laughed at her and invaded Ukraine anyway she never met Putin you know this total Fabrication in my book 13 cracks I talk about another fabrication did you ever hear the black helicopter myth Sam no this is a myth perpetrated by the way far militia right in the 1970s that un troops were going to invade the US in black helicopters clad in Black to take over the country well Donald Trump repre a verion of this crazy screwy black helicopter conspiracy theory except this time was on a plane he claimed to be on a plane with all these thugs clad in Black prepared to come to Washington DC and take things over did this on Laura Ingram this was even too much for her even said said come on this is just a crazy conspiracy theory but as always he doubled down on that and of course when he retold the story it wasn't people on a plane going to Washington DC it was people on a plane coming from Washington DC going somewhere else in the country and we can repre this over and over and over again and here's the thing with Trump truth doesn't exist it's not that he lies that's wrong it's that he has no concept of Truth and falsehood and therefore anything he says is a entirely transactional that is I'll make up anything I'll fabricate anything that I think will help me you heard him say you know prices have gone up 400% under Biden they've gone up 120th of that he was off by 20 to one in his recounting and you know I ordered 10,000 troops to the capital and Nancy Pelosi turned me down entirely true story except there was never any such order his own military officials testified under oath or at least before Congress there was no such order and Nancy Pelosi had absolutely nothing to do with countermand during orders about National Guard she has no Authority and had nothing to do with protecting the capital other than that and you know we can go on and on and on and you know the moral is you know reread 1984 it's worth rereading you know part of the dictatorship that oppressed the entire people in 1984 in that novel had to do with a brutal government but that was not the root of the dictatorship it what was called double think the manipulation of Truth so War would be peace famine would be plenty under the double think of 1984 and there been new books written saying you know in the modern era the way you're going to get authoritarianism is not you know by mustering black shirts in the street so that's part of it it's by manipulating information to manipulate the minds of the people and we've seen this in every dictatorship what's the first thing Hitler did when he took over Sam what did he burn libraries books they burn the books first thing we don't want people to actually read things and think for themselves when Stalin took over he had every typewriter in the Soviet Union registered so he can make sure that no subversive information should be put out by any at all and so Trump just makes up these entirely false stories they have no basis it doesn't matter he doesn't care about any basis it's totally transactional we've NE you know we've had president's lie president's lie every once in a while but we've never had a president see in a candidacy built on pure fabrication that's why Trump can spew this without batting an eye because truth doesn't matter to him you know the the other thing about this whole immigrants eating pets thing you know let's let's give let's say it's true right let's give them the benefit of the doubt for second let's say it's true there are a couple immigrants in Ohio that have attacked pets eaten pets let's say right even if that is true does it really rise to the level of concern to reach the president of the United States you know what I'm talking about even if there were three or four or five people in Ohio that had had attacked and eaten a c out of millions upon Millions out of millions upon millions of immigrants does it really raise the level of the presidency I don't think so and the other thing that's that that bothers me too is it is fun f it is funny to joke about but it also is insanely insanely bigoted right because oh it's so racist let's say you know a couple arson started in Denver right you wouldn't people wouldn't start saying the people of Denver are arson right because two or three arson started going around and putting things on fire right so it's equally absurd to say that again this is not true but to say it was true three or four immigrants attacked cats attacked pets eight pets it would not be fair to again label millions and millions of immigrants as cat eaters as he did the same thing with so-called immigrant crimes you know there are tens of millions of immigrants 11 12 million undocumented immigrants of course you're going to be able to find examples of crime you can find far more examples of crime among white Christian native born Americans with huge populations you can find examples of anything in fact this uh child who was killed by an immigrant driver who crashed into the bus that Trump has been exploiting for months said stop you know stop exploiting my dead child for your political purposes it was an accident Could Happen anywhere could happen to anyone had nothing to do with immigration in fact there have been multiple studies including by the libertarian KO Institute hardly a liberal Group which finds that both documented that undocumented immigrants commit crimes at lower rates including violent crimes than native born Americans and there's good reason for that immigrants don't want to be caught up in the criminal justice system they don't want to be detained and deported so this notion of you know Finding examples you can find examples to prove anything in a country of 330 million people the couple of other things leaving deide what I thought was the craziest thing I've ever heard in the debate the eating of cats and dogs there were a few other things that really stood out to me number one you know Trump says I've got all these great policies for eight years he's been claiming he's developing a much better health care policy better than anything we've ever seen before right typical Trump rhetoric eight years and he was asked about it in the debate what's your policy and what did he say you remember he said like I've got Concepts and you know I'm not president right now or I don't know just yeah yeah he said I have Concepts eight years he had to draft a pol doesn't matter whether he's president or not four of those years he was President right no policy he was then asked how you would go about deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants cost Trump claims it's 21 undocumented immigrants regardless how would you do that didn't answer that would be the biggest intrusion on the lives and freedoms of Americans that we've ever seen undocumented immigrants don't live in isolated communities with big signs saying undocumented immigrants here come right in I of course not they are integrated in with the entire American population they live next store to US citizens and legal residents they're married to US citizens and legal residents their children are US citizens and legal residents you would have to intrude on the lives of tens of millions of Americans and you know like dictators everywhere demand that they show their papers do you think every American citizen can prove they're a citizen you know if you don't have a passport and you don't have a birth certificate and a lot of people don't how in the world are you going to prove your status plus citizenship is very very complicated it's not simple people may have passed the Naturalization and waiting for their papers and they don't have them yet you know and there's sort of citizenship of American parents born abroad which don't necessarily give you papers to prove it and on and on and on this would essentially require a police state in America so no wonder Trump didn't answer it moreover even if you succeeded which is impossible possible in deporting all the immigrants you might as well close down the agricultural industry the construction industry the hospitality industry and the personal care industry you would destroy the American economy who was it that Trump was hiring to make his beds and clean his toilets Sam undocumented folks undocumented immigrants because he could pay them bottom wages and then of course he was asked you know you say you're GNA solve Ukraine overnight how you going to do that didn't answer are you favoring a Ukraine victory in the war didn't answer the question you know for a guy representing a party that supposedly believes in human freedom and autonomy they want to demand citizenship papers from tens of millions of Americans and they want to control the reproductive lives of tens of millions of women and of of course their families their Partners their children and everybody else associated with them I I just found it astonishing now I've been watching debates since the great Kennedy Nixon debates no subsequent debate has come close but I've seen this year the two worst debates right Sam yeah I was about to say let's answer our central question did Trump give the worst debate performance ever and we were talking earlier today on the phone that we might have seen the two worst debate performances of all time back to back being Biden and then Trump however way you want to order them what's your take well they're different Biden you know wasn't lying and saying crazy things he just looked like a guy who had lost it right yeah that was the big problem with Biden it wasn't particularly anything he said it was how he said it Trump didn't necessarily look like a guy who lost his cognitive abilities but he looked like a guy who was completely unhinged who had no grip on reality no positive ideas for the country and wanted to be an authoritarian who was the model who's the leader he posed as his model Victor Orban yeah of Hungary one of the worst dictators around the world who's destroyed his political opposition destroyed the Free Press so in substance I would say Trump's debate was by far by far not close the worst debate in history maybe rivaled only by his other debate but that was kind of lost in Biden's faltering performance and Biden's performance in terms of the Optics was the worst performance we've ever seen important right um so obviously we were live a little bit last week but we didn't really see the whole aftermath of it so um I know a big thing from a lot of Republicans after the fact and Trump himself going on and on about how the moderators were biased um and how they were only factchecking him but you know if you're saying that crazy of you have to expect that the moderators are going to focus their attention on you right correct let me make two other observations one when you're blaming the moderators you know you're in deep trouble right that's another yeah yeah you're on the defense you're trying to explain away a horrible performance too even if we grant them you know that the moderators were one-sided in factchecking which is you know as you say except you know perfectly reasonable given the crazy stuff Trump was saying but the moderators were also very biased in favor of trump in that they let him go on and on and on and on without stopping him he had vastly more speaking time than uh kamla Harris did of course he he hanged himself you know with his rants in his speaking time so this notion of biased moderators a is a sign of desperation and B just isn't true you got to weigh the two things the moderators were doing second thing something we've never seen or very rarely seen Trump one of the candidates going into the spin room you don't do that if you won the debate and again he was saying the most unhinged crazy falsehoods according to the polls I won 86% to three you hear that 86% to 3% The Daily Show had like a The Daily Show had like a compilation of him in the spin room just like spewing out these numbers and it was hilarious just yeah him going on and on about I won and a lot of them weren't equaling 100% either he'd like I won 86 to 4% or I won 98 to 2% he was just spewing these numbers over and over again it was hilarious I know which he you know again he just fabricated and he was asked where'd you get these numbers and what did he say nothing of course just like he said nothing about his health care plan or his plan to end the war or his plan to deport undocumented immigrants you know I thought that was as crazy as the debate quite frankly in spewing out those crazy numbers out of nowhere come on he said he said immigrants were eating cats and dogs it doesn't get crazier than that that's true that is the craziest thing I have ever heard a presidential candidate say in a debate or maybe ever maybe in any context and you know I think I said last night that's what people are going to remember people can get that they can get how crazy that actually is and if you see a lot of the subsequent commentary it does focus on his unhinged comment which he doubl down on eating uh cats and dogs and I'm not surprised by that because that is something people can so easily grasp as crazy you can't miss that and they're still pushing it aren't they as you said it's just a astonishing you know uh Napoleon once said don't interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake Democrats are right just letting them continue to push this and ramble on it I told you today I got a critique of my keys saying hey you got to turn the social unrest key because of what's happening to the pets in Colorado my God yeah what now you know two days later what's your assessment of uh kamla's performance I know you day of you said she did good but not great are you still in that ballpark yeah uh I kind of I'm where the I think there were seven or eight journalist from the Philadelphia inquire you know right there in Philadelphia and they gave Harrison 8.5 out of 10 which is very good but you know short of you know Perfection they gave Trump a 1.8 out of 10 and this was across the board this this wasn't you know just one or two aberant Journal this was their whole team of journalists following 8.5 versus 1.8 and as I said we're a little bit critical of Harris was I thought she missed some opportunities to pound some things home she could have been a little bit more detailed about her policies but those are quibbles 8.5 versus 1.8 is about as bad a Beatdown as you can possibly get yeah and back to the polls thing I think she's won pretty handedly in most polls I've seen you know there were two scientific polls and Trump lauded them of course when they showed him winning now he says you know I've got these other8 that's what they always do right they're the CNN poll Trump won the first debate 63 to 67 to 33 to listen to The Post media commentary on that Biden debate you would think he was a zero but he 33% thought he won wasn't nobody and in the Poll for the Harris Trump debate 63% thought Harris won 37% thought Trump won almost an exact reversal of the CNN poll last time which Trump of course you know lauded as you know great accurate poll there was another scientific poll by yugov which had Harris ahead very close uh maybe not quite 26 points but I think 23 points even a bigger margin than the Biden Trump debate which had Trump ahead by 21 points so the two scientific surveys that mean anything as opposed to made up things uh were pretty clear it was it was a very bad beat down for Donald Trump actually we did a poll um last week but actually five hours ago I put a poll up on our community tab it's got 12,000 votes um wow and it's 94% KLA Harris won 6% Trump won so so again our our audience not a representative sample no of course not but that's pretty that's something you can't get 94% of Americans to agree on how to spell their name much less on who want to debate we never see any numbers like that except Trump Bing them up of course yeah I mean I think I said this a night of I think she did good I think she did seem at times a little too prepared a lot of her answers seem she was panned and you know she's not a Ronald rean look of these great on liners you know that capture everything no but I was going to say on the other side of the spectrum there were times it was weird because there was times that she seemed like you know your typical politician a lot of panned answers avoiding answers at times and then on the other hand she seemed sharp as hell when she was going after him yes do you think 8.5 is about right I would that's my issue is like I see the debate is very black and white you know very two-sided for her like I said at times she was a 10 out of 10 and at times she was probably a five out of 10 so in my mind .5 is about right yeah seven probably eight somewhere in that range yeah and would you agree Trump is like two one yeah I mean one they had 1.8 and that's because there was one Trump supporter in that whole group of journalists yeah the The Washington Post had 24 now this is not scientific either but 24 undecided voters and they voted 22-2 bearis that's also over 90% again you can't get 90 plus percent of people to agree on what street they live on right and you know I think the right-wing and Republicans know that and that's why in the days since they've been going so crazy about the biased ABC moderators and actually breaking just a few hours ago I think it was confirmed irm that Trump has said Trump and his team has said they will not debate KLA again so oh that's really telling I don't know that yeah that's telling because it tends a terrible message to the voters that says I know I was destroyed in this debate and I'm too chicken to go up against her again and you expect me to go against X and Putin and you know all the dictators around the world if I can't face off against this woman it's a pretty bad mess mess that Mr Macho Donald Trump is sending I think we're back to what we made up right Donald Duck yeah you know in the spin room afterwards he was saying things like why would I debate again I won you know why would a prize fighter go back and you know it's always the loser who wants to fight again and it's like this isn't boxing this is political debating it's very different besides Trump has never lost right he won his trial in New York where he got con convicted of 34 felonies he won his trial on his uh sexual assault of EEG Carol even though he got docked for hundreds of millions of dollars he won his New York uh real estate fraud child even though he got docked for almost half a million dollars he won his controversy over his charity even though his charity was dissolved he won his lawsuit over Trump University even though he had to dissolve it he won the 20120 election that he lost by 7 million votes right all right we better get to some question because half an hour in some housekeeping stuff um both me and my dad will be live with Mr beat right after I live around 10:15 p.m. eastern time the link to that is in the description of this video so if you want to check that out please do so um remember that donations and members get priority on questions but we cannot guarantee that questions will be answered because we get so many questions now if you're watching make sure that you like this um stream you're subscribed and turn on our notification Bell so when we go live dad people can turn on notification Bell to tell them that we're live only 12% of our subscribers have the Bell on so don't forget to yeah I saw that in our analytics this week um so make sure you turn the Bell on you ready for don't forget donations and memberships I already said that Dad oh that you listen I don't hear everything all right let's get to our first absolutely I'm ready uh um set of questions um Vincent escolano says I never hear anyone mention that Trump in both 2016 and in 2020 as an incumbent got a lower share of the national vote than Romney did in 2012 I don't know if that's true do you Dad uh I'm not sure that's true I'd have to check it would be close Okay um Dudley Murdoch says um and but I never doubt any of our callers nobody's calling nobody's calling not a single person is calling our viewers um they're very smart vacuum tubes for Hi-Fi says I am an electrical engineer and build vacuum tubes stereo systems in my spare time while I build my circuits I like to listen to lectures and podcasts how can I listen to some of your lectures I bet they are one Wonder F gee I don't know how you would listen to oh I got it it's a little old but it's still great uh on the Teaching Company Superstar teachers I have a whole series of lectures on the American presidency that you can you can purchase it's really cheap um D Dudley Murdoch says are all eight true keys and three false keys locked on your system model um or where the model change I believe we said that right right we were giving a 832 soft a 9 or a hard a 94 hard and an 85 worst case scenario right that was our analysis that's right the most likely scenario is 94 mandate incumbency incumbent Charisma foreign policy failure the nine others true and of course given the vicissitudes of War I don't expect it but it's not impossible the success key could flip but that would still be 85 still a win for Harris right Jim blauer says Allan why are people especially the media calling you Nostradamus you are scientific and analytic while Nostradamus was pseudo science I don't disagree with that but uh I don't you know I don't pick these nicknames I guess they picked Nostradamus because he's the best known in history as a forecaster and so it's I take it as a very very strong compliment although your comment is of course correct um scaros the Greek we got Greek people in the chat now dad that's awesome I just did an interview with a major Greek uh media Outlet oh well scaros the Greek says since kamla Harris is drawing notice noticeable support from never Trump Republicans how much would she need to broaden her coalition to flip the Charisma key I think I think it's too late to flip the flip Lop to flip the Charisma key it takes time she's so new she's only been what a month and a half as the candidate and you know you don't rise to the level of an FDR overnight or very quickly unless you're someone you know just truly off the page spectacular and I'm being conservative you know everybody's saying oh you're biased because you're a Democrat all those same people were saying lickman is so brilliant and so right on when he predicted Trump in 2016 now that I'm picking Harris oh you're just a democratic tool you're so biased you're only pick Democrats and of course you know we've gone over this ad Noosa of my predictions have nothing to do with my political views so I'm being very very cautious and careful here um Shay Hendrick says Dr lickman the media continuously ask you about the polls whenever you appear as their guest why don't they seem to understand that polls are not predictors you seem to be very clear about that I am crystal clear about that but they're caught up in the political industrial complex the counterpart to the military industrial complex and like the military industrial complex it has its own Iron Triangle at one point are the pollsters the handlers the admin who make huge money on this idea of a horse race election with the pollsters keeping score and then there's the media which has to follow the pollsters because they have to cover the election every day they can't just say lickman picks Harris see in a couple of months and then finally there are the politicians who are afraid to go against the polsters the handlers the pundits and the media I've been screaming for decades about the need to break this iron triangle and how the keys to the White House with its focus on governing is the tool um one of our Discord questions remember if you want to join our Discord or our Reddit the link to that is in the chat if you want to follow us on social media he's Allen lickman on everything except for YouTube I'm know what Discord is but I don't need to do I no I'm Samick on Instagram and YouTube uh our Discord question is Russia has recently started to push back against the K incursion with a significant Counterattack yet this development seems to fulfill one of the Ukraine's strategic goals of diverting troops away from the front lines in Ukraine's dunesque region would Russia have what would Russia have to do to flip the key false that's the foreign military success key and what does Ukraine have to do to make sure the key remains true what don't I like to do Sam hypotheticals hypotheticals the devil is always in the details so I can't tell you how any given hypothetical development is going to affect the keys but I can say my overwhelming expectation is there won't be in the next month and a half or so anything dramatic enough to reverse the key right um member McRae Lucas says hello Dr lickman I just joined as a member today thank you for becoming a member they say a subject was brought up in my college history class today on which I wanted to get your perspective how did the Treaty of bre breast and Bre Lov yeah bre you had to give me a second to try come on breast lovk affect America's relationship with Russia in ways we can observe today oh it had a very fundamental effect you know kind of the last gasp of the zist control over Russia and the beginning of a big battle between the zaris previous zarus forces the white Russians and the Communists the red Russians and the United States actually very people know this intervened in Russia you think we intervened on the half behalf of the red Sam no we intervened on behalf of the monarchists didn't help but that starts that's kind of that not you know post World War II in a sense is the beginning of the Cold War member Rings very smart question yes member Rings fan one says which prediction um that you've made since 1984 were you least sure about oh that's really hard to say I I'll just say difficult predictions were 1992 2000 and 2016 there you go um member abject ladder says a very bright spark on your Discord server has produced a model for State specific predictions with around 90% accuracy going back to the 1800s that has Harris on a 282 Electoral College Victory with Arizona Georgia North Carolina and Wisconsin all flipping I guess flipping blue um does or I'm not sure blue last time I don't quite get I don't get that either does that sound reasonable to you do you have your own hunches to how Electoral College will play out I I don't understand what was meant by the flipping of those States well no because North North Carolina was red North Carolina was red and the others were blue so I'm a little confused I guess I mean if she's going to win 282 they probably I probably he's probably saying that those all went blue I'm assuming uh it's hard to assume I think she'd have more than 282 if North Carolina and all those other states went blue because I think even without North Carolina get2 right I guess that's I guess the the opposite he's saying the Arizona Georgia North Carolina Wisconsin all go red she still wins 282 um I I'd have to look at the math that doesn't sound quite right to me but I don't do states so I'm not going to comment right um the Spartan 3198 says when you retire from doing the keys you should create a council that will carry on your work called the keepers of the keys what are your thoughts on that I love it it's a great idea since my son Sam seems reluctant to be the soul next Keeper of the keys right how many viewers 7,191 nice nice um Derek Taylor says in 1956 Dwight Eisenhower signed a bill authorizing the interstate highway why was the major policy key false I don't remember to be honest with you so I you know that wasn't even a prediction so I I don't recall my reason for 195 no recall on that 40 some years ago I haven't looked at it since Jacobs travil says did you see Nate silver um sorry did you see Nate silver shift his prediction from Trump to a tie based on the debate um and he also endorsed Kamala he's all over the place of course he's all over the place because he relies on Snapshot polls which are not predictors and the polls are constantly changing and therefore his bogus probabilities which mean nothing are constantly changing and he has no theory about how elections work so he has no recommendations unlike the keys of how our politics should proceed he's just a clerk and I don't know why anyone would pay any attention to him Obamas soda says Allan John tester's race is making me very nervous are you nervous about it you bet I'm nervous about it of course uh it could decide the control of the senate tester's in you know a very deep red State and uh very precarious sure I don't you know individually follow Senate races if you want to really follow Senate and House races I always recommend my good friend Charlie cook and the cook political they do a much closer analysis of Senate and Congress elections than I do I'm the big picture guy right and don't forget uh um don't forget if you you know if you're worried about elections the best thing to do is to vote so don't forget to register to vote if uh you can order mailin ballots online now so don't forget to vote right Dad that's what I said at the very end of my video right it's always up to you if you don't vote don't expect the outcome you want um demo Lily says what's your favorite election to dissect SL discuss oh man to 2016 is right up there because it was such a surprise and I went against all of the conventional wisdom another one which has nothing to do with my predictions is 1896 one of my favorite elections that was the first election in US history where a candidate actually stumped the country William Jennings bran the Democratic candidate before that it was considered unseenly for candidates to individually campaign and Brian broke the mold Brian also broke the mold of the democratic party before Brian the Democratic party had been a conservative states rights party it was Brian who Fus with the populist party that introduced us to the modern Progressive Democratic party member JB Brown says Professor could you comparecontrast Trump's economic plan of putting tariffs on other Count's products um and reducing taxes to Harris's plan to raise corporate taxes and unrealized gains for 100 100 million or more well you know we could spend hours on that it's a very complicated question I'll try to cut it down to size I think we need to tax the rich more the gap between the rich and everybody else today is where it was on the eve of the Great Depression in 1929 all the great gains of the Roosevelt Truman uh Johnson administrations which were very significant in reducing the wealth and income gap have all been wiped out so yes it's very important have public policies that address inequalities of wealth and income and one of the worst things you can do and don't take my word for it look at the overwhelming consensus of economists is to slap a big tariff China does not pay for tariffs the American Consumer pays for tariffs so if you're going to impose a 20% tariff on Chinese Goods expect to pay twice or close to that for your television your phone or any other electronics that you happen to want to purchase and you know we have terrible experience with tariffs one of the worst tariffs in history was the smooth Holly tariff are you familiar with that Sam no that was the Tariff of 1930 just as the Depression was starting to roll and get underway republicans in Congress and President Herbert Hoover passed one of the biggest tariff hikes in history which contributed to the continuation of the depression not just in the United States but all over the world because it stifled International Commerce and spalk the trade War Philip H says is it possible to look at a database of registered voters look at newly registered voters look for which party they vote for and how consistent they are at voting and build a statistical model no one's ever been able to build a model by looking at individual voters youve probably heard my analogy of your cup of tea you pour sugar in your tea you learn Nothing by trying to follow the individual sugar molecules but like the keys you can learn a lot from simple integral parameters that Define the cup of the tea as a whole like sweetness and density president broccoli one of our many presidents in the chat says what's your take on Biden wearing the Trump hat did you see that no I didn't see that he was at I think Biden was at some sort of 9911 Memorial um event and was talking to a guy with a trump supporter a trump hat on and signed a hat for the guy that just had the presidential seal on it and gave it to the guy the guy took the presidential seal hat took off his Trump hat and then Biden put on the Trump hat I don't know if he was joking if he was being an old man was not aware that it said Trump I don't actually know I didn't see it so I can't comment there you go um Derek Taylor says plan a Biden stays in Plan B Harris becomes president did you know about plan C Harris nominated without a primary your critics don't think so do you understand that I don't understand that not a bit no sorry not even close they they did St what I called in my second uh New York daily news article plan C which is you're not going to step down from the presidency it's critical that the Democrats unite behind Harris to avoid loing both losing both the incumbency key and the contest key and that's exactly what they did I can't say they did it because of my recommendation but essentially it followed one of my recommendations which meant they only lost one key the incumbency key which is not fatal losing both incumbency and contest probably had a real chance to be fatal our second Discord question of the night with the recent expansion of the White House legal team I'm not worried that certification of the vote will ultimately take place however one remaining area of concern is how long these lawsuits will persist and how that might impact events post elction day for example what if law suits and unres are unresolved by inauguration day will Joe Biden remain president what happens if certification lawsuits or other attempts to block certification aren't resolved by January 6th well it's not January 6th that matter oh well it's when the remember election uh is certified in December not in January 6 the votes on on the Electoral College I don't remember the exact date but it's in December it's well before January so that's the critical time and the courts have been very very solicitous of cleaning up any electoral challenges before what's called The Safe Harbor for the certification by the states of their electoral tallies right um our next question is that's why allegedly the Supreme Court stopped the recount in Florida because allegedly they want to bump up against uh certification time uh member soccer guy says what was Harry Truman Scandal oh it was called the mess in Washington at the time and uh not Truman himself but members of his staff members of the Bureau of Revenue that lat became the IRS were implicated in in in taking bribes and engaging in corrupt activities and it was a huge issue uh and I think one of the reasons why Truman decided not to seek reelection wasn't the only one but was certainly a reason why he didn't seek reelection even though he was eligible because he was not covered by the 22nd amendment so he did not seek re-election in 52 member miles wolf says do you think the role of churches in Grassroots political mobilization will remain in the future if not is there another Grassroots Network that you think could replace it well there are two Roots networks the Democratic network is the union movement that's why the decline of unions has been so detrimental to Democrats and the Republican Grassroots organization are indeed the Evangelical churches and I don't think either of those are going to change anytime soon Tobit Jesus Channel says I have seen quite a few historians on YouTube say woodro Wilson was one of the worst presidents ever what are your opinions on woodro Wilson's presidency it's it's a very controversial presidency obviously there was some incredibly good things that woodro Wilson did bringing order to the financial markets uh adopting various Progressive reforms on things like workers rights and antitrust there are things that you know are very controversial the incursions into Mexico he was obviously very much of a racist and of course our entry into World War I is a very mixed Legacy so he's one of the Pres presidents where you can make arguments on either side and the debate will never end member casr 91 says what are your thoughts on Professor gome Chomsky I think you know Professor Noom chonky is brilliant he was probably the leading philosopher of semantics in the world and you know I don't always agree with him but he's a very bold and very insightful uh commentator on public affairs um Shay Hendrick says I looked into past presidential elections the very first election between a Democrat and a republican was in 1856 the keys go back to 1860 why didn't they go back to 1856 because it wasn't Republicans versus Democrats in 1856 rather it was unsettled which party would replace the defunct wig party as an alternative to the Democrats and there were two Alternatives The American or no nothing party and the Republican party and it wasn't settled that we'd have Democratic versus Republican uh competition until after the election of 1856 because the Republicans did so much better than the American or no nothing party um the Alex tree fire says Trump just said he won't do a second or third debate if you count Biden um we just reported that earlier in the show what are the chances that he changes his mind and debates kamla again Trump can change his mind within minutes much less days so you know don't bet your farm on anything that Trump says at any given moment remember he flipped twice on one of the most burning and important issues of our time the abortion issue Sharon Novak says I'm feeling really good about this election thanks to your prediction and now the great debates and the huge rally today in North Carolina and the Taylor Swift endorsement you got to admit things are going pretty well for Harris right now right but remember I made my prediction before all of this right so I can say nothing that has happened since I made my prediction has led me to question it girl power says if SL when Trump loses the election do you think the Republican party will distance themselves from him or do you think he will continue to influence I think he'll continue to have some influence but you know how long he can retain good enough Health to be influential but I think there's a much bigger issue and that is it's a trump party right not just Trump you blipped out Trump tomorrow the Republican Party would not look much different and I have a whole book coming out on this Notre Dame press next year probably next spring it's called the truth about conservatives it's not what you think now dad is it Notre Dame is it notredam or is it Notre Dame I don't know I say Notre Dame okay don't don't count that as gospel okay Notre Dame I'm not even Catholic no yeah oh you're not no oh he's drinking a lroy he's drinking a lroy yes I'm not drinking diet soda um Trevor not Trevor Tyler O'Reilly says this is something that I saw Chris Hayes talking about which I didn't even realize during the debate but again it's one of the nuts things that Trump did Tyler says Trump was misnaming the Taliban leader did you notice that I didn't notice that during the debate I didn't notice that he called him just some random Arab name and then yeah just wasn't the right name so Trump was misnaming the Taliban leader and said West Virginia governor when he met Virginia crickets from the media on his cognitive ability absolutely you know the media was all over the supposed cognitive a decline of Biden I mean it Biden's was worse Biden's was worse yeah but they've kind of ignored maybe it's not as bad but it's still pretty bad you know he called his top supporter his biggest finer here Elon Musk Leon at a rally how do you do that I don't know that would be like me calling you Joseph that's not my name right right that's my point um I'm only six months younger than Trump in 2016 you hedged your prediction of a trump win because he was a breaking historical Norms can you say that this can make an electoral win and popular vote POS possible uh that's not quite right I didn't hedge my prediction I said I'm sticking by the keys I gave two interviews in which I stuck by the keys and doubl down on them even after the Access Hollywood tape when Trump bragged about grabbing women by their private parts and so many of the pundits were writing him off I stuck with my prediction I said the same thing I always say I'm sticking with the keys I never change them but it's always possible there could be some cataclysmic unprecedented event that changes you know 150 or 160 years of history but I did not Edge my prediction um Dr lickman what are your thoughts on Cornell West Jill Stein and Chase Oliver they literally have no chance at winning so why do third party candidates stay in the race knowing they have no shot well I think they want to influence the outcome I don't know about the third guy I don't know much about him but I think Jill Stein and Cornell West are in there because they want Trump to win for different reasons and Biden to lose I don't think Jill Stein you think Jill Stein wants Trump to win and Harris to lose Jill Stein is I think and I can't prove it I think is a Putin puppet I think there's a lot of evidence pointing in that direction although I can't prove it Pedro Maris says but the debate is worthless for the keys no of course that's why I issued my prediction before the debate to drive home my message it's not campaigning it's governing that counts the only thing I've said is obviously nothing has happened since to give me heartburn about my prediction right I saw an interesting post on our Reddit page saying that debates can influence the keys just indirectly I mean that's not true right anything could indirectly but the Bates never have except obviously changing the ticket for the Democrats this year which the keys fully took into account right Jasper Chu says did conservative Republicans from 1945 to 1960 push arguments and talking points so as so asinine no critical thinking person would believe them well it depends who you're talking about I I don't think even back then except for the extreme right like the militia movement uh conservative say Edward durksen or even Barry Goldwater were as off 22 says given that our democracy is at stake what's holding back the undecided from choosing Kamala the US might accidentally become a police state if Trump wins what would alleviate Trump's supporters anger I don't think anything is going to change Trump's hardcore support his hardcore support hasn't budged in almost a decade his approval rating has always been somewhere in the low 40% range I think it's 43% now went up a little because of a sympathy response to his uh getting shot but it's always been down there in the low 40% range he does have that hardcore base I'm not sure anything could break that hardcore base but I am a little astonished that uh there are so many people willing to take a risk on a trump presidency when he's right out there right out in the open talking about governing like the authoritarian Victor Orban and you've heard me say this and I'm not going to get into it again I've given you my reasons I think the Press has been way too complicit with Trump and if Trump wins they're going to be very sorry because what of the first things he's going to do do is snuff out the Free Press and again Trump says what he's going to do he makes it crystal clear you don't have to you know solve Rubik's Cube to figure out exactly what Trump is about um I have a take on this you want to hear my take why not I think a lot of undecided voters don't follow politics that closely as a lot of PE a lot of people in our chat do I think they they probably hear a lot of hoopla from both sides you know the Trump side saying you know the Democrats throughout Biden they're a threat to democracy the Democrats saying look at January 6 Trump's a threat to democracy they don't go deep enough to to see the actual truth that Trump is mostly full of hot air and if you look at the actual facts of the situation he is the greater threat to democracy you know they see Trump as this guy you know before the pandemic the economy was good you know he's a tough man he's good on foreign policy so they see these like kind of surface level things and they don't go deep enough to find the truth and that's why they're still okay with Trump that's my ass completely agree with that but again I would add my emendation that the media is much too complicit in not stressing what Trump actually represents anywhere near at the level they went after Biden after that first debate which was much less serious than what Trump represents what's an emendation just a addition to oh I think also the thing is like you say often you know Republicans don't have principles they're going to ride Trump no matter what happens the Democrats they have principles and yeah they grew a spy and they kicked Biden out right they and they United behind Harris that was the important thing of course they did that because they were following the keys and I know they do because you know I've talked to enough Democrats and I've also talked to Republicans over the years everything do and say is public is available to anyone regardless of your partisan affiliation Steve D says why do you think very few people have a problem with Trump running three times he's like a 21st century Williams Jenning briyan I don't think people are aware that William Jennings briyan ran I think so you know that Sam no I had no idea no people people don't know that they're not as smart as you are so I don't think that fits into their calculation well like Biden CL by the way also lost three times no Trump hasn't lost three times he's only lost twice that's right he's only lost twice so he's not comparable to Brian or clay who lost every time all right we're g we're getting to the end here um I want to put in the chat the link I for I said that the link to the Mr beat live was in the description of the video I think I forgot to put it in there so I'm going to link the Mr beat live in the chat and pin it to the chat Mr beat live so uh we'll be live there in 15 minutes if you want to come and join us uh oh let me pin this to the chat all right it's been that's the link has been pinned to the chat let's get how many more questions you want Dad before we leave great how many viewers do we have 7,101 so we've held them how many total views I can't see that till the end of the stream don't worry about it three more quickies okay um let's see it's been a hard day for me I ran six miles right did an hour in the gym did several interviews taught a two and a half hour class race back to do this show and then I'm gonna do Mr be not bad for 77 not bad at all um I don't really understand this question but maybe you will miss miss MIM says I still can't believe that Trump had lavro in the Oval Office please discuss that Trump had what lavro do you know who that is yes he was the uh prime minister I think he still is the foreign minister of Russia and during the Trump presidency he had lavro in his office and released some secret American intelligence I think it had to do with Israel right to the Russian right and my my theory is Trump is such a mountain of transgressions it's it's hard to even keep track of them because it's an avalanche you know yeah and that's not as bad as him stealing hundreds of top secret classified documents keeping them in his bathroom his bedroom his ballroom and who knows what he's done with them um arson says you're so rational I wonder when you're talking to Republican friends can you actually change their Minds if they're trumpers you know there's a great novel one of the alltime great novels by em for a Passage to India and one of the characters is an old Indian gentleman and he says I've been arguing with my wife for 40 years and I've have yet to make one point I've been arguing with my Republican friends for 40 years I have yet to make one point um with puppy says do you think magga voters claiming that there's an affidavit coming that will say that will say ABC gave questions to kamla ahead of time is just a desperation A desperate attempt because Trump's because of Trump's poor performance have you heard about that I think yeah I I've heard of that I don't know if it's true but wouldn't surprise me that they can do anything possible to try to mitigate the disaster that was uh the Trump debate a disaster even recognized by the senior Fox news commentator you know who that was Sam no senior guy Brit Hume their most senior uh commentator at Fox the most respected one said it was a disaster for Trump all right last two questions and then we're gonna sign off to get on to the Mr be we want to get with Mr be whoever he is don't say that he's got a million subscribers he's way bigger oh my God he's way ahead of user bow down to you Mr be whoever you are um gouki bro says do you think walls in 2032 is viable what about Shapiro oh my God you know I hate hypotheticals now you want me hypotheticals eight years down the road quite possibly I think you know they're reasonable contenders but you know a lot can happen in eight years maybe you'll be old enough Sam maybe you'll be the candidate no and I'll be way too old so don't worry all right I I'll ask our last question from our moderator Shawn who has quite an odd question but hey it's the end of the show we love sea yeah we love Shawn exactly and and Jeff um Jeff says he wants to be part he volunteers to be to be part of your futural counc Council of Keeper of the keys now Sean says serious question and I don't mean to be crash someone asked me this and I thought I'd ask ask the expert do you think presidents and first ladies get into in the white house it just seems like it would be a weird place for that I have no clue I assume John F Kennedy did but one thing I can tell you for sure is who was the most prolific womanizing president Sam it's not who you think uh was it Grover Cleveland or somebody like that he's close he did Father no was Warren Hardy oh and Warren Maring did have an affair with Nan Brittain his mistress in the White House they did have sex right and Bill Clinton also had an affair in the White House didn't he that's true he did indeed later on that's Lewinsky so I'm sure there's plenty of sex in the White House not that I witnessed any of it but uh I'm sure there is why would why would you w why do you say why would you end that statement with why would have you witnessed sex in the White House I said I didn't witness I know but why would say that it's it's a weird thing to say well I was asked about it you know what I'm telling you I have no firsthand knowledge I think people I don't think my point is I don't think you need to say that I think people probably automatically would assume that you don't have firsthand knowledge of sex in the White House well that's good to know good to know all right we better take one more question we can't end no no let's end on no no no we're ending on that with that all right all right you don't want to end on that all right here we go I got one more question for you I thought that would be a funny thing to end on but he doesn't want to end on that um all right we could end on that that's no no NOP no one more question you're the boss I'm gonna give you a hard question because you don't want to end it all right Grover Cleveland lost the Electoral College in 1888 because of the opposition of Tam Hall in New York state was this a form of party contest uh no I don't because the has a nomination contest and uh he won the popular vote only because of the snuffing out of the Republican black vote in the South where he won up to 83% credible you know margins you never see in the southern states so there was Shenanigans going on at both ends of the country all right with that we got a run to the Mr beat live the link to that is pinned in the chat what are your final words to the people on this lickman live on September 12th 2024 truth is everything when you lose truth everything else is gone because truth is the only check and the most important check really if not the only check that we have on dictatorship once truth is gone everything else is gone just reread or read 1984 to see that all right thank you very much see you all on the Mr beat live awesome