2024 ELECTION MAP POLLS TRUMP VS HARRIS POST-DEBATE

Donald Trump clearly dominated camela Harris  in the first presidential debate he delivered   a performance that met the expectations of his  supporters strong and assertive Trump effectively   countered Harris's points throughout the exchange  it was clear that Harris who has been trailing   in the race for months needed to make a strong  impression during the debate but she failed to   deliver the impact required now let's shift Focus  to the 2024 electoral map reflecting the changes   following the first and possibly only debate  between the two main candidates we'll Begin by   identifying the solid States for each candidate  these being states where either Trump or Harris   are expected to win by 15 percentage points or  more starting with the Republican strongholds   Trump is set to easily win in Utah Wyoming Idaho  Montana North Dakota South Dakota and all but the   second district of Nebraska he will also take  Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana   Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West  Virginia Indiana South Carolina Alaska and the   second district of Maine this tally gives him a  solid 126 electoral votes on the other side Kamala   Harris is set to claim Washington California  and Hawaii along with Vermont Massachusetts   Connecticut Rhode Island Maryland the district  of Colombia and the first district of Maine with   these states in her column Harris Trails behind  with 109 electoral votes next we move on to the   likely states where one candidate still maintains  a strong Advantage but the margin of Victory is   narrower between 7 to 15 points Trump for instance  is likely to win in Iowa and Ohio two key states   that he dramatically shifted to the right during  his political rise in 2012 both Iowa and Ohio   were competitive having gone to Obama eight years  earlier and George W bush in 2014 however in 2016   Trump managed to swing Iowa 15 points to the right  and Ohio by nearly 12 points he won both states   by similar margins again in 2020 despite some  predictions that Biden could close the gap in   either State Trump's influence remains strong and  both states are expected to vote for him for the   third consecutive time adding to Trump's column  is Texas once a state Democrats hop to flip Biden   didn't come close in 2020 despite polls indicating  a tight race Trump ultimately won Texas by six   times the projected margin and today he's likely  to secure it by a double-digit margin though not   quite enough to exceed the 15-point threshold a  major Republican prize in the up coming election   is Florida with its 30 electoral votes formerly  a highly competitive Battleground for three   decades Florida is no longer up for grabs in  2020 Trump improved on his 2016 performance   in Florida winning by a margin greater than any  presidential candidate had achieved in the state   in 16 years this election cycle Trump is expected  to win Florida by over seven points making it the   best result for a candidate in the the state  since 1988 with Florida locked in the likely   red column Trump is now just 51 electoral votes  away from securing a second term having racked up   219 votes already on the other side many states  that Joe Biden won handly in 2020 are going to   be far more competitive for camela Harris first on  this list is Oregon which is not as liberal as its   neighbors California and Washington in New York  Harris is poised to become the first Democratic   candidate to fail to win by a solid margin since  Michael Dukakis in 1988 similarly New Jersey   impacted by the scandals surrounding Senator Bob  Menendez will also be more competitive than usual   Delaware Biden's home state will be closer  this time without the incumbent on the ballot   lastly Illinois is also expected to be a more  difficult win for Harris even with these states   in her column Harris is still behind at 181  electoral votes that leaves us with the most   competitive States totaling 138 electoral votes  if we compare this map to 2020 it's clear that the   political landscape has shifted back then States  like Minnesota Colorado Virginia New Hampshire and   Maine had already gone Blue by this stage having  voted for Biden by more than seven points this   time camela Harris is not performing as well  as Biden did four years ago now let's examine   the lean states where the margin of Victory is  expected to be between two and seven points these   are the states that could produce some upsets but  one candidate still has a slight Advantage first   we look at Harris's lean States beginning with  Colorado while I expect her to win here it will   be by a much narrower margin than Biden's 14-point  victory in 2020 Clinton's 4.9 Point margin in 2016   is a more realistic comparison CA Harris will  take Colorado's 10 electoral votes but it won't   be an easy win another state in her favor is Maine  the at large tally will likely go to Harris even   though Trump has proven competitive in the State  winning one of its districts Maine generally leans   left but with Biden out of the race Harris will  find herself in a closer Contest New Hampshire is   another state where Harris holds a narrow lead  Hillary Clinton only won the Granite State by   0.37% in 2016 making it one of the closest  contests in the country that year while Trump   is expected to perform slightly worse than he did  in 2016 Harris will need to keep a close watch on   New Hampshire it remains a swing state and the  fact that Harris was recently campaigning there   shows her concern about holding on to its four  electoral votes next we turn to New Mexico a state   that Democrats have held since 2008 but one that  is Shifting more and more to the right especially   as the Hispanic population Trends toward the GOP  while Harris will likely carry New Mexico the   margin will be much smaller than Obama's 15-point  win in 2008 this shift suggests that New Mexico   could become a Republican state as early as  the 2030s finally in the Midwest West we have   Minnesota a state that hasn't gone red since 1972  Minnesota is moving rightwood but Harris's running   mate Tim Waltz who is popular in the region should  help her keep the state in the Democratic column   that leaves the eight most competitive States and  the second district of Nebraska for Harris to win   she must take Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and  Virginia Trump on the other hand only needs needs   to win Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia  to secure 270 electoral votes he could also get   there by flipping one of the Rust Belt states  along with some in the Sun Belt now let's focus   on the remaining lean States for Trump starting  with North Carolina Trump won the Tar Hill State   in both 2016 and 2020 and given Biden's failure  to flip the state Harris is unlikely to win here   either Trump is the clear favor it especially  given Biden's stronger standing in 2020 which   did not carry the state for Democrats moving on to  Arizona and Georgia these are two of the closest   States from 2020 with margins of 0.24% in Georgia  and 0.31% in Arizona however Trump is now in a   much stronger position with polling in both States  favoring him given that Trump has historically   outperformed his polls both Arizona and Georgia  are likely to return to his column in 2024 with   expected margins between 2 and 4% Pennsylvania is  another critical state for Trump the first debate   was held there and fracking remains a key issue  Harris's stance on fracking may have alienated   some voters making Trump the slight favorite in  Pennsylvania he won it by nearly 1% in 2016 and I   expect him to Win It again this time by just over  two points now we are left with the closest races   which will be decided by margins of less than  two points I predict Harris will narrowly win the   second district of Nebraska and Virginia but not  without a fight Virginia once solidly Democratic   has seen a republican Resurgence with the GOP  winning Key State offices in 2021 Harris's lead   in Virginia is fragile but for now she Remains the  slight favorite Nevada on the other hand is poised   to go to Trump despite losing the state by 2.4% in  both 2016 and 2020 Trump leads in the polls and I   expect him to win Nevada by just over 1% this  time lastly we turn to Wisconsin and Michigan   generally Michigan votes to the left of Wisconsin  and Pennsylvania but Harris's choice of Tim weltz   as a running mate might give her a slight Edge in  Wisconsin however I still see Trump winning both   States as he did in 2016 the Rust Belt tends to  move as a block and I expect Trump to improve on   his 2016 performance against Harris flipping both  Wisconsin and Michigan back to the GOP after the   first debate Camala Harris missed the opportunity  to change the trajectory of the race Donald Trump   Remains the overwhelming favorite for the 2024  election with 3 12 electoral votes projected to go   his way compared to Harris's 226 if these results  hold this would Mark the worst Democratic showing   since Michael dukakis's defeat in 1988 as we move  closer to November it will be interesting to see   if any developments change this forecast but for  now Trump is on track for a significant victory