Houston weather: Showers possible Sunday, with rain chances increasing Monday

Hi, everybody. David Paul in the Khou 11 Weather Center. And we're looking at the rest of the weekend forecast. But then as we head into next work week, whatever your plans are, expect to have to dodge rain and some thunderstorms and some of those could be quite heavy and this heavy rain threat will really begin as early as Sunday night. And so Monday morning, your commute, your plans Monday morning and Tuesday morning may both be impacted by rounds of rain. Something we really haven't had to deal with too much over the past week or so as we've been dealing with all of the heat here, the way the rain chances look as we head through the rest of the weekend, it's just a slight chance for scattered showers. But Monday, Tuesday rain chances up to 60% both of those days. And so we could see some heavy downpours, high temps have still been hot but not as bad as they were or could be on Saturday, we hit 98 last year. On the date we hit a high of 100 and nine last year. Was that terrible drought and heat wave normal for this time of the year is 94. So we were four above normal and then 109 is the record set a year ago on this date in 2023. So here's the bigger picture in the Gulf. There is an area of low pressure, but this is not at the surface, this is not a tropical low, this is a mid and upper level low and you can kind of see how the clouds are rotating counterclockwise, see them. So that's how we know we've got an upper level low here and that is gonna move into the far western Gulf and into Southeast Texas as we head into Sa Sunday night and then Monday and Tuesday. And so that's the rain maker that's coming in for the first part of the week. And again, we could see some heavy downpours as early as Sunday night. So let's walk through Sunday. This is 730 in the morning, Sunday. And on the coast, we could begin around sunrise with a chance for a scattered shower. But really most of the day Sunday is just warm and muggy and typical end of August weekend weather highs in the low to mid nineties, 20 to 30% chance for a scattered shower at best during the daylight hours on Sunday. Then we go into Sunday evening and Sunday night, this is 10 o'clock Sunday and look at the rain chances that the future track is putting in here with some rain sweeping in. That's part of that big spin out there in the Gulf that counter clockwise rotation at the mid and upper levels, bringing in energy that will begin to kick off scattered showers and storms inland as early as Sunday night. That's 10 o'clock Sunday night. So you may have the pitter patter of raindrops overnight Sunday night into early Monday morning. That's 5 a.m. Monday. So I'm saying your commute Monday morning looks likely to be impacted in a lot of spots by rain and a scattered shower and maybe a flash of lightning. In some of those, we're not expecting anything severe but heavy downpour on your commute on a Monday morning, very quickly can become severe for you if you have to drive through it. And then by the middle of the morning, Monday, still a good chance for rain, scattered showers, increased clouds. Look at temp seventies, low eighties by 10 a.m. with the rain forecast to come in and also impact temperatures, keeping them a little bit more under control. We may still make the low nineties on Monday but in the afternoon, you can see scattered showers. A chance from Livingston to tall mall in the woodlands to downtown to El Campo, Angleton is in Pearland. So rain chances increase as we head into the first part of the work week, next three days. Then Sunday, a 30% chance for a scattered shower. Monday, a 60% chance for that more widespread rain. And then Tuesday, that more widespread rain chance continues. So Monday and Tuesday look wet. Both morning commutes. Monday and Tuesday could be impacted by widespread rain and a couple of thunderstorms. I'll still put the mid nineties in there for highs. But if we get enough rain and cloud cover, maybe we'll get a break and not even make the upper the mid nineties. Uh one or two of those days. Now to hurricane season, we are in the heart of hurricane season statistically, this time of the year and we are right here, second half of August, uh near the end of August right there. September 10th is the statistical peak for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic and then it stays high, backs down a little bit going into the middle part of September. So, I mean, we're right in the highest part of when it's most likely statistically looking back over the years for us to get tropical storm and hurricane development and we're in a season where it was forecast to be one of the busiest ever. The original forecast from Colorado State University was for 25 storms. They backed it off on their update to 23 storms when an average year has 14 storms. But look so far this season, we've only had five Alberto Barrel, Chris Debbie and Ernesto. And of course, Barrel, the one that became a cat five out in the, uh uh eastern Caribbean then hit us as a cat. One, that's the one that did all the damage to our power grid and the trees. But now Ernesto, that's it. We only had five storms. So, if we're going to get to that 23 that lowered amount from Colorado State University, we'll have to go through all of these names and a couple of more, we have to go through Adria and Braylin to get to 23 named storms and we're way behind. So maybe it won't be as busy a season as they've been forecasting. That's fine. It's weird to say that in a season where we've already been hit by a hurricane early in the season, but maybe it won't, we won't get the numbers that they're forecasting either way. We're just gonna take it one day at a time regardless of the forecast. That's just how we do it. You have to do it just one day at a time and this day in the next seven days, it appears things are gonna stay quiet even though we're at the time of year when these things can really get going. So what's going on out here to keep things so quiet in the open Atlantic and the Caribbean and the Gulf when we're in what is usually statistically the busy time, there's plenty of warm water. In fact, this is showing temperature anomaly, sea surface temp anomaly. So the this is where sea surface temperatures are running 3 to 5 degrees above normal. But a little further south temperatures have actually cooled. This is a recent development. They're not as above normal as they were. So sea surface temperatures here, a little bit cooler. There's also plenty of dust that's still out here. So you've got dust, which is a layer of warm, sinking air. That's the opposite of what you need to get storms rising to build into tropical systems. And then in this spot where you have the intertropical conversion zone, you've got sea surface temperatures that I just showed you that are not quite as warm as they were. So the water is a little less hot. We've got dust and the ITCZ in a tropical conversion zone, the active stuff is below 10 degrees north latitude. You really need to get these systems above 10 degrees to get enough twist of coriolis twist to really get them cranking and get going. You can get storm formation in here. Uh But the closer you get to the equator, the less coulis twist you have and the less likely you are to get the low pressure to form at the surface. So there's also that there's also this, the Madden Julian oscillation. So this is a global wave that has an active rising phase and then a uh more uh a less active sinking air phase. Right now. It's here in zone three. It's forecast to become much more active, much more uh statistically significant and move the lifting phase where you get more showers and thunderstorms and more tropical development into zones four and five, that's over Indonesia. The lifting phase on the opposite side of the planet, you get that sinking phase and that's where we are. And so we're in the quiet phase of the Madden Julian oscillation over the Atlantic Basin. Here's what it looks like on a map. The lifting phase has moved over Indonesia. So you have more rising air, it's more likely you get storms forming here. And now the sinking phase is here on this side of the planet, the Atlantic basin. So you get the quiet phase, you get sinking air in general, you which equals less storm development. So we've got the dust, we've got the ITCZ below 10 degrees north latitude. We've got sea surface temperatures out over the Atlantic that are not quite as hot as they were. A lot of factors working against more tropical development right now than they normally do this time of the year. That may be why things are so quiet and are forecast to stay quiet. So that's what's going on in the tropics right now. Again, we'll just take it one day at a time, big picture stuff. Upper level lens and surface fronts, there's one right now that's actually gonna lift to the north and not impact us. This goes into Monday, see that spin right there. That's the upper level low. It's gonna give us, the rainy weather Monday and Tuesday, that front scoots to the north doesn't impact us another front in a trough in the upper level scoots along the Canadian border. They get some cool air across the Great Lakes going into next week. But that front stays well to our north. It's a little early for us to be getting fronts. However, we are gonna go into September and this model goes 10 days out. And if this does verify a little bit more of a deeper trough might try to push a surface front through the deep south and Texas. Now, this is a long way out. This is not set in stone at all. What usually happens early September. If we do get a front push in here, it usually stalls and becomes a rain maker for us. Not, not a cold front, we're not gonna get any cold air, but that's what the longer range models are depicting. Going out to September 3rd, first week of September, we'll keep an eye on that long range forecast as far as Sunday high temp goes to 95 30% chance for a scattered thunder shower and the extended forecast Monday, 60% chance for rain Tuesday again, a good chance for rain and thunder and a chance for a scattered thunderstorm each afternoon for the next seven in a row all the way into next weekend, next Saturday. That's where we stand. We'll keep you posted here as we continue through hurricane season and, uh, the end of August and almost the beginning of September. Thank you.