Nate Silver’s NEW 2024 Election Map UPDATED Forecast!

Dan the election is not today if you had the election today then she would be favored but we should remember that polling is sometimes inaccurate as it was in 2016 and 20120 as well for someone who accurately predicted the outcome of 49 states in the 2008 presidential election and most of 2008 RZ and 12 in the CI 20 2020 n silver deserved any awards that came his way again in 2024 the former ABC News correspondent is here with his forecast latest prediction from data Guru Nate silver shows Trump still with a sizable advantage in the Electoral contest with a 56% chance of winning the highest he's seen since late July Trump also leading with Hispanic voters on an interesting issue on handling immigration of course an issue that is Central to this election cycle still Harris serget say it's important for her not to Pivot too much away from her as we approach the 2024 election Donald Trump has reached a record high in Nate Silver's presidential forecast holding a 58% chance of winning the Electoral College his best odds since Camala Harris became the Democratic nominee let's break down the electoral map based on this updated forecast we'll Begin by identifying the solid States those where either candidate has at least a 95% chance of winning starting with Trump's safe red States we have Montana Idaho Wyoming and Utah along with North and South Dakota Trump is also projected to win Statewide in Nebraska specifically in the first and third districts as well as Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee and South Carolina other states where Trump holds a strong lead include West Virginia Ohio Indiana and Kentucky on the Democratic side Harris's safe states include Washington California and Hawaii though notably not Oregon Harris is also expected to win Illinois Maryland Delaware New Jersey New York Connecticut Rhode Island Massachusetts Vermont Maine's First Congressional distri district and Washington DC with these states in hand Harris takes an early lead with 173 electoral votes while Trump holds 139 now let's dive into the competitive Battleground states starting from the likely States those were states where either candidate has between an 80% and 95% chance of winning these states are less secure than the solid States but still favor one candidate for Trump this includes Alaska Texas Iowa and Florida he has a strong grip on these states as he W alas by 10 points in 2020 Texas by six Iowa by 8 and Florida by three Florida in particular has become one of the most rapidly right leaning states in the country it was one of just five states where Trump improved his margin from 2016 meanwhile in Texas the gop's increasing success with Hispanic voters in the Rio Grande Valley has likely made the state difficult for Democrats to contest in the near future with Trump leading in recent polls by 13 percentage points Camala Harris's likely states include Oregon Colorado new Mexico Minnesota home state of her running mate Tim Walls the Commonwealth of Virginia and Main Statewide contest these states offer no real surprises in Nate's forecast in 2020 Joe Biden won Oregon by 16 points Colorado by 14 New Mexico by 11 Minnesota by 9ine Virginia by 10 and Maine by by nine despite the progress Trump has made this election cycle Camala Harris is expected to retain these states without much difficulty if we are to look at the Electoral count again Trump has closed the Gap to just three votes Harris holds 221 electoral votes while Trump stands at 218 that leaves 99 electoral votes still in play across the remaining Battle Ground Stakes returning to our electoral map let's focus on the lean states where either candidate has a 65% to 80% chance of winning for Trump Arizona and its 11 electoral votes fall into this category according to Silver's forecast Trump has a 70% chance of winning Arizona although Joe Biden narrowly carried Arizona in 2020 by just 0.3 % 49.4% to 49.1% Trump now leads in the latest polls by 1 percentage point 48.5% to Harris's 47.5 Cherry this marks a 2.5-h point shift in Trump's favor over the past week though it's still more favorable to Democrats than it was a month ago North Carolina is another state where Trump leads he currently holds a slim advantage in the polls 48.4% to 48% for a margin of just 0.4% based Bas on this sober forecast gives Trump a 70.9% chance of winning North Carolina compared to Harris's 29.1% adding North Carolina to our map alongside Arizona gives Trump another 16 electoral votes Trump narrowly won North Carolina in 20120 by just one point the state has seen eight consecutive close elections for both president and UC Senate with Republicans winning by less than six points each time Trump's final lean state is main second congressional district this district is the largest east of the Mississippi by land area and one of the most rural predominantly white and oldest in the nation these factors contributed to Trump winning the district in both 2016 and 2020 defeating Biden there by seven points most recently Silver's forecast gives Trump a 73.8% chance of winning Maine's second district once again in 2024 with six states remaining in the lean category along with the second congressional district in Nebraska we have to get back onto the map this District in Nebraska leans toward Harris as it covers the urban Omaha Metro area and is highly college educated two factors that have driven its rapid leftward shift in recent election Cycles in 2020 Biden carried the district by over six points and according to Silver's forecast Harris currently holds a 71% chance of winning it New Hampshire is the other state leaning blue where Harris has a 71.6% chance of winning Biden won the state by seven points in 2020 a significant iFly more comfortable margin than in 2016 when Trump came within half a point of defeating Hillary Clinton with New Hampshire's four electoral votes added to Harris's total she now Trails Trump in the race to 270 electoral votes with 220 squs to Trump's 246 66 electoral votes are still up for grabs in five states where neither candidate quaring sply holds better than a 65% chance of winning these key Battleground States will play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the election as it stands Trump is slightly favored to win Nevada 6 electoral votes Georgia 16 electoral votes and Pennsylvania 19 electoral votes bringing his total up to 287 electoral votes according to the forecast Trump has a 57.6% chance of winning Nevada just above the 55% tossup threshold he is more heavily favored in Georgia with 62.8% odds and in Pennsylvania with 58.1% despite Harris currently leading in the polls in all three States the margins in Pennsylvania and Georgia are razor thin at just 1 percentage Point each in Nevada her lead is less than 1 Point silver highlights that Pennsylvania is the main reason Trump remains a FR trunner noting that it's been a significant amount of time since any poll has shown Harris ahead in the state which could be the decisive Tipping Point in the election an Emerson College poll of Swing States found both Harris and Trump tied at 48% in Pennsylvania the survey conducted between August 25th and a August 28th included 950 likely voters and had a margin of error of -3.1 or percentage points in a separate poll by the pinpoint policy Institute conducted among 400 likely voters between August 9th n21 Trump held a narrow lead over Harris by 1.47% to 46% in a direct matchup it seems that the expected post-convention dip in Harris's polling combined with the fundamentals gives Trump a strong advantage in these states looking back at our map the two remaining R Belt states Wisconsin and Michigan remain in the toss-up category according to Silver's odds Harris holds a slight Edge in Wisconson with 53% to Trump's 47% making it nearly a coin flip Michigan is even tighter with Trump at 5.3% and Harris at 49.7% effectively a 50/50 race Pennsylvania Remains the most critical state with a 35% chance of tipping the election if Harris wins Pennsylvania her overall odds of winning the president presidency sore to 91% for Trump a win in Pennsylvania boosts his chances to almost 94% on the map without Pennsylvania Trump's total dips to 268 electoral votes below the necessary 270 this scenario would still allow Harris a narrow path to Victory if she manages to sweep the remaining toss-up States but for now Trump is slightly favored in Pennsylvania making him the front troner to win the electoral college with 287 votes over Harris's 226 it's no no surprised that the two candidates will face off in 2 days time in the first presidential debate set to take place in Philadelphia Pennsylvania the most pivotal Battleground state in the election