Big 12 Win Total Predictions! (2024) - Part 2 #big12football #predictions #collegefootball

Intro & Methodology [Music] welcome back to the Saturday Scholars college football podcast thanks for watching thanks for listening that is Zan I am Shu and today we continue our trik through the Big 12 it is Big 12 win totals part two today we will be covering the four Texas schools plus Oklahoma State so kind of going geographically here through the Big 12 and this is interesting group of teams here we got a little mix of Hot Seat a little mix of teams that are contenders to win the conference and a little mix of teams that are looking for bounceback Seasons compared to what they got last year so it'll be an interesting batch of teams here we also have a new coach in this batch of teams so how we doing Zan we ready to cover the Big 12 part two oh I'm more than ready to part cover part two man you know Oklahoma State's in this grw so it's always a fun time going over my pokes oh we know we know it will be and I brought out the if we can get it to appear I brought out the craft beer blond ale and the Frosted Mug for this one just cuz you know second one we're double dipping here two videos in one night it'll be released of course as two separate videos on YouTube but my mug stops uh cropping out here with the with the green screen background but yeah so I figured I'd bring out the craft beer for This One MH go to feel good you got to feel good got to feel good man talking about about the pokes talking about the Baylor Bears the Houston Cougars TCU Texas Tech and of course Oklahoma State so let's get into it man alphabetical order starting at the top Baylor the Baylor Bears come into 2024 with a win total of five and a half wins on Caesar Sportsbook even money on both sides Dave Randa enters his Fifth Season at Baylor wof it has been some tough times recently Baylor had a 3-9 season last year three- n pretty far fetched from that 2021 season where they won the Big 12 and got that huge cotton bow Victory against or Sugar Bowl victory I should say against Old Miss we should we should never talk about that season we probably shouldn't talk about that season that big 12 championship game yeah I we all know but if you're a Baylor fan that uh that ending was to your Delight but yeah your coach is on the hot seat in 2024 the seat is hot for Dave Aranda and honestly it's a bit surprising it's just a trajectory that I did not see coming I don't think either of us did we were both high on this higher when it first happened five years ago and I'm just surprised to see that we are at where we are at with Dave Randa and his tenure at Baylor but as far as the 2024 season we got a win total of five and a half so the sports books expect a little bit of a bounce back but what's your say Zan on the Bears this team was bad last year man and you mentioned they went three and9 and if it weren't for like a miraculous comeback to beat the UCF Knights they'd be 2 and 10 man like so y let's just uh like let's just remember that you look at the metrics for this team man and they were almost sub 100 in both categories both offensively and defensively almost sub 100 they they cracked top 100 in uh in offense but boy almighty this was a terrible team from top to bottom so much so that you know he fired his offensive coordinator and we now have Jake spavital coming in from Cal so we'll see if Jake spat is a to you know reignite this offense and get something going it's kind of interesting because as you were saying like just as far as 2021 like it seemed like this program was heading in the right direction on the proper trajectory and all of a sudden this program's falling flat in its face and we're talking about David Randa being fired when you know just a few years ago we were talking about him being one of the best coaches in the league so it's really interesting to see how this has happened to Baylor but luckily I think there are some things for Baylor to look forward to this year so much so as in getting dayquan Finn at the quarterback position that's automatically an upgrade you're getting from Toledo he's a dual threat guy I do like that right there your running backs aren't that great but one thing one Saving Grace is that their offensive line looks pretty dang good this year I think they actually will have one of the better offensive lines in the Big 12 this year and so that's going to help with Dominic Richardson and Richard Reese who honestly have not been effective together I remember Richard Reese in his freshman year I thought he was going to be a star he really kind of popped off early in his career but then you know he's kind of Fallen back from Grace but we'll see I think this will be a good year for Dom Richardson and Richard Reese to be a good onew punch especially with that o line that they've got we've got returning Monteray Baldwin KRON Jackson and Hal Presley bunch of guys who've been in that program for a long time uh we all know Monteray bald in the Deep threat so he's good he can take the top over the off the defense really like that the other guys bring some snaps But ultimately we're going to need to see a little bit more production from this group and I think we will get it especially with an improv at the quarterback position and having a pretty solid o line and what I mean by the solid o line man I look and I saw that they got I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna Butch this name man but it's Omar Aion from Montana State and they're like oh cool three star transfer go go us you got to butcher several more names in order to catch up to me I'm I'm running first place in that metric right now on this podcast hey that's why we went with dju we were talking about him but anyway man so this guy right here I'll just call him Omar um you know three star transfer I don't know how I don't know how I don't know how you know 24/7 comes up with their grades but this man was ranked the number one most efficient guard in all college football by PFF and Baylor brought him in so that's a pretty big get if you ask me and uh you also return Kurt Daner um oh sorry you bring in Kurt Daner from Ohio who is also a top 20 graded guy by PFF then you have Campbell barington returning and so you've got three really really good offensive players right here on the offensive line players so I'm expecting this to be a pretty dang good unit we look at the defensive side of the ball you return Cooper Lin but you lost seaka Aika which is a huge loss that dude is just an absolute run stuffer he's a complete so I'm just expecting the defensive line to take a significant step back with the alaka AA I mean he is just so dang impactful like even coach Gundy when he's talking about Baylor he said that guy's gonna play on Sundays and he said that years ago so I mean I'll tell you what I will say this bringing in my own people here whenever Gundy says this guy's probably going to play on Sundays about his opponents they usually do guy can recognize Talent um so anyways then we look back at the next group past the dline the linebackers that group is really weak Shu that's really concerning for me I mean this this group was 103d in defensive efficiency last year this defense as a whole and my God man I look at this dline I look at the the running I look at the linebackers not very good um I look at the second there's at least some guys returning in the secondary like Kayden Jenkins and Carl Williams Some solid corners and but then you got Kendrick Simpkins a whole transplant from West Kentucky who's supposed to start for you and then you return Deon Bobby who was kind of wishy-washy sometimes good but sometimes liability so it really it doesn't seem like there's going to be a significant amount of improvement with this defense they should be able to crack the top 100 Sho but that's not saying much um so I will say Matt poage has got his work cut out for him this year I do like the offensive potential with this team though Shu the offensive potential is definitely there with the offensive line play returning production at wide receiver and running back granted no one there is truly Elite but you have a quarterback there who's Dynamic you've got protection I and you got a new offenseive coordinator who's known for being a pretty creative guy he actually did a decent job at Cal and so I'm really excited to see what Jake spavital can do with this offense we look at the schedule man you get charlon state that should be a win you go at Utah a non-conference game even though it's the same conference you probably lose that game but don't worry it won't hurt you Baylor you weren't going to play for the Natty anyway you're playing for the Big 12 baby it's not going to hurt you then you're going to play Air Force you should be Air Force but just be careful man because if your defense was as bad as it was last year you may not beat Air Force hey they lost the Air Force in the bowl game a couple years ago if I'm not mistaken so yeah so you got to be careful and then you start conference play at Colorado this is when Colorado is still feeling pretty confident because they've probably like beaten Colorado State and all the other rund Dums they have to play and then BYU okay so pretty light start there you got Colorado BYU winnable games but for Baylor these are more like toss-ups than they are like truly should win games if I'm being quite honest with you and then we go at Iowa State I expect them to lose that game you get a bye-week to go prepare for Texas Tech I expect the them to compete in that game I lean towards a loss then you get Oklahoma State I think they lose that game then you get TCU I think they lose that game bye to prepare for West Virginia at West Virginia I think it's nice if they have a bye-week to prepare for West Virginia if I'm not mistaken it seems like a lot of teams are getting any by weeks to prepare for West Virginia I think the big I think the Big 12 just like straight up gave them the hardest schedule and make sure that everyone got a bye for them um they anyways what did they do to your I know man like I think I don't know what's going on here but anyways anyways um and then they go at Houston and then they got Kansas to finish the year Kansas is an interesting one as we mentioned if you watch the last video check out our synopsis about Kansas and why we think it's interesting to play Kansas late season versus early season could very much be a benefit to play Kansas late season versus early season if you want to know more about that check out our previous video and hit the Kansas section um but anyways that could play to their favor so we're looking here at 5 and a half we need to go bowling to go over so tlon State book it Air Force possible BYU Colorado possible uh Tech possible maybe West Virginia off to buy Houston and Kansas so these are all posses that's that's seven right there in addition to the guaranteed win do I like them to basically win the vast majority of those games I like to Quan Finn I like this offensive line but Shu I don't like this defense um sh I I look at the efficiency metrics and I I and what's glaring to me is I just cannot ignore how bad they were last year 90th in offens efficiency 103rd in defense efficiency they were almost sub 100 as a power four team in the two categories that matter most obviously I don't see them making that much of a leap if you get better on offense I think this could be a top 50 offense but I don't think this defense is going to LEAP to where they need to be in order for this team to win some of these games and I could even see them losing to the likes of an Air Force or a Colorado or a BYU they might even split between Colorado and BYU but if you're trying to get this over you need both of those because your schedule gets harder down the line so I'm going to lean under Sho I think it's more likely they go five- seven then they go six and six but I'm going to go with low confidence low confidence on the under so there's a few interesting storylines with Baylor going into the season of course obviously you got Dave Randa on the hot seat with his job but as far as the offense I think that obviously you look at dquan Finn surface level yeah it definitely presents an upgrade but here's the thing you brought in Jake spab itall they're going to run more of an air raid scheme not exactly what uh taquan Finn ran at Toledo but you also have S Robertson there as the backup and the reports have been so far granted I don't know how much stock you put into this that sort Roberts has has been in the mix for the starting job and I'm like there's just there just no way but here's the thing if that's true that's a huge problem because so Robertson of course he's familiar with the aate system because he was at Mississippi State when leech was there and so he's familiar with it but in my opinion even regardless of scheme dcoin Finn should be a better option over Sor Robertson that's why you brought to Quan Finn through the portal it's because you need an upgraded quarterback because shapen just didn't cut it for you last year so that kind of presents a little bit of a question mark for me or Le a little bit of a red flag it could be noise but something to keep an eye on and as far as defensively you kind of highlighted man it's hard to tell with the front seven where there's just so much turnover I mean I like to say this a lot but you figure it can't be that much worse than it was last year but I don't know maybe maybe it can be if you're an Iowa fan you say this every year and it does end up being worse than so that's true it's the Anakin meme right there uh secondary will certainly be the strength of this defense but here's the thing with the defense is that Dave Randa is taking over the play calling he didn't he's not he doesn't have a defensive coordinate coordinator anymore so Dave Aranda is taking over the defensive play calling himself which is not out of the ordinary we see some head coaches do this a lot um but the thing is it kind of scream I I don't know what to say about it it kind of the guy's coaching for his job here and I'm like now he's taking over as the play caller so obviously he's going to put a lot of attention on the defense and that's Dave Randa Acumen as a DC that's where he made his money that's where he had great success as a defensive coordinator so he's going to put a lot of of effort into this defense a lot of his time and coaching so I would imagine that the defense does improve a little bit because zand is taking over as the play caller I mean there isn't much worse to go down you were 111 you know sh I I think Randa was I I think his mindset was legitimately like you know what if I'm getting fired I'm at least doing it with my own play calling man like taking ownership of your team right there yeah see I respect it but on the same token and I did misspeak Matt poage is gone that's fine but on that same token Jake that what does that mean for Jake spavital it means all of a sudden Jake spavital is really going to be running the show offensively because Dave Rand is going to be putting most of his attention to to the defense so with spavital coming in you better hope that that dcoin Finn and spad all this thing clicks or else I don't really know if this if this train is going to get back on the tracks to put it lightly but as far as my model my model has Baylor at 5.6 wins which is actually right on the money for this five and a half win total right here they drew mostly a tougher Big 12 Conference slate I would say and you already pointed out that Utah game is a non-conference game so so uh the Big 12 they had already scheduled a home on home series with each other as a non-conference opponents and the Big 12 decided to just let them keep it but keep in mind that's not a official Big 12 Conference game so in my eyes that only can benefit Baylor because Baylor's probably going to lose that game it's at Utah so the good news for Baylor that doesn't count against you in the conference standings if you lose that game to Utah but as far as their actual conference slate you know at Iowa State at Texas Tech Oklahoma State TCU at West virgia irginia Kansas those are some of the tougher teams in the league I I don't know if I see many wins here on the table for Baylor even if Dave Aranda ends up coaching up this defense and and rebuilding this thing or at least putting it together in one season I don't know if I see that happen especially with this schedule and another thing too I only have them as favorites against Tarlton Air Force BYU and Houston so I only have them as favorites in four games which means if you take care of business in all four of those games you got to win at least two games and and come up and and nip one of your opponents that I think is a little bit better than you and my last Point here is that Baylor's last two recruiting classes haven't been the greatest I think Baylor's last two recruiting classes have been some of the worst that they've had under Dave Randa and I think that they I don't think they've recruited a single Blue Chip guy a single fourstar I mean um that one quarterback that they had committed that went to Oklahoma State and end up flipping to the hell he flipped to TCU yeah but the point is like they don't they don't have a single fourstar recruit and well Bor leaves Baylor did get Austin Nova side a quarterback actually did he flip he might have flipped or didn't he he fli he did he did flip to Oregon that's my point here is that the te leaves don't look great here in the recruiting for Dave Randa I just it's hard to see him turning even if they do let's say make a bowl game this year let's say dcoin Finn and spav it all works out and this thing hits you make a bowl game that's great if you go six and six are you still happy with your status as a Baylor fan I don't really know I just I I don't see I'm sorry but I just don't see I don't see this working out for David Randa even if things go well even if they beat this win total I don't know if you go six and six you're coming off a three and N year I don't know with recruiting the way it's going I don't know if you're a Baylor fan or if you're the ad if you're happy with that situation and I think it's more likely than not that randa's gone at the end of the year it it just seems like a hard proposition but you know I could be wrong I could be wrong but I'm going to say more likely than not they don't hit this win total because the schedule is on the tougher side and aanda probably gets fired because if you're a Baylor fan six and seven three and nine and then if you don't make a bowl game this year three years in a row of losing Seasons That's not acceptable at Baylor with their with their recent track record in history davand is going to be gone so I just see a lot of downside potential here and I have have to go under I I have to go under but I'm going to do it with low confidence because my model has this win total right on the dot I think the defense probably will get better because randa's taking over the play calling I mean dcoin Finn on the surface is an upgraded quarterback over what you had last year in shapen so like all these things are like yeah you're upgrading you're getting better but just overall I don't think your coach is going to be there at the end of the year and that probably not a good sign for this win total and the schedule is tough so that's my fin fin synopsis on the Baylor Bears for 2024 so under with low confidence just like you okay next up is the Houston Cougars Houston Houston comes in with a win total of four wins a huge heavy shade to the under there at minus 160 Willie Fritz brand new head coach welcome to the Big 12 Willie Fritz in his first magic Fritz magic baby first season at Houston this team uh went 4-8 last year of course with Dana hogerson who was let go and Willie Fritz comes in as a new head coach in Houston and you and I both love this hire I believe you and I both gave this an A or an A minus I think that Willie Fritz was a guy that probably could have gotten a better higher tier job than Houston in our opinion and I think Houston is pretty fortunate to be able to land him and another thing that I think Houston has going for it with his hire is that Willie Fritz yeah he's on the older side but this is probably his last job before retirement so he's a guy that if he's got still you know several few more years of coaching in him I don't know if he's going to make a huge lifestyle change there I feel like Houston has their guy at least for the next four five maybe six seven plus years if Willie Fritz decides to coach that much longer and uh that's his probably his last job before retirement and the guy did a hell of a good job with tane and he put tane football on the map and and let's say he can't do the same thing with Houston granted however as you will get into here in a second this is seems like a little bit of a rebuilding year for Houston they lost a lot in the portal there's a lot of turnover on this roster might be tough year one but we like the coaching staff we know that for sure Zan take it away as you said man I mean love Willie Fritz but this team has really undergone a big turnover there's not much left on this team to really look at and say okay Willie Fritz let's see you cook up right now it's going to be more like hey Willie Fritz do what you can for now and build for the future that's kind of where we're at and part of building for the future is hiring his coordinators which he brought in Kevin Barb who was the former Mississippi State offensive coordinator uh it's a coordinates offense we'll see what that looks like and then he brought from tan his defensive coordinator sha wood who was pretty good defensive coordinator over there they had good success there so I do like that a lot um one thing though is that they do return Donovan Smith and he does have a lot of a starting experience but you know he's not a prolific guy he's probably like what I would epitomize as like your stereotypical run-of-the-mill average Quarterback um and that's about what you got with him he's not bad he's not good he's like right there in the middle capable of keeping in games but not necessarily going to will you into a game and win it for you um and then you've got your halfbacks who aren't really you know that stored you got Parker Jenkins Stacy Sneed going to have to step up we look at the wide receivers man not really a lot of guys with production there I mean their best guy in terms of production is Joseph manjack who's a sub 600 in production so they've got a lot of guys that need to step up here and then you lose your best tackle and Patrick Paul who's a second round pick in this last draft so and then I look at the rest of the line there's no one really there that really sticks out and then tell me you lose a second rounder man that's going to be rough and then defensive line man we remember like a year or two ago we're talking about how good the Ste line was for Houston that's not the case anymore Houston I mean they brought in Keith Cooper from Tain which I do like and they return Anthony Holmes but otherwise they don't have much at that spot um this D line is definitely depleted from what it was in the past the linebacker is just a bunch of transfers at the spot so it's really hard to know what they have at that position we look back at the corners and the safeties I mean they do have Kristen Davis from Southern who grades pretty well but again that's a guy who came from a lower level not to say those guys can't perform well but again a lower level nonetheless and then Latrell McCutchen who comes back who didn't even have enough staps to like generate a grade um so that's something that's also concerning and then we see the safeties they return AJ Hy who's a very average player and then a bunch of transfers once again and no one really grades all that highly so Willie Fritz has a lot to figure out with this team I think the thing here is just to see some Type of improvement with their younger guys because I'm not expecting willly Fritz to get this done in year one their schedule's kind of tough as well you look at it Shu I mean you start with UNLV that's a winnable game but then you go at Oklahoma that's probably going to be an L you play rice you should win against rice that's the Houston Showdown they didn't last year remember they lost to rice and OT last year yeah but they should beat them they're out should but it's a Revenge game but um but I mean that's the that's the Showdown the battle for Houston best team in Houston and then uh at Cincinnati that's a winnable but still like I don't know I kind of Lan Cincinnati Cincinnati's got a little bit of an offense there it's at Cincy then you got Iowa State probably a loss at TCU probably a loss by week to prepare for Kansas we'll see what the jayen Daniel situation looks like even if that situation is like not in Kansas's favor I still think Kansas wins that then you've got Utah and Kansas State then Arizona ooh The Gauntlet right there that's three losses right there man like you might play some of these teams closer than expected but I don't think you're going to beat any of those three teams then you play Baylor who I think is like a notch above you I don't think they're great but I think they're just a notch above you you should be able uh to at least be competitive in that game I don't I don't think you beat him and then you play BYU so I look at this man what what what what win potential do we have what win potential we're sitting there at Atlanta 4 the win potential is UNLV rice Cincinnati Baylor BYU maybe five teams and then you know five teams for win potential so to get this over you got to win all five you lose even one you're on at least a push and so it it I can't do it man I love Willie Fritz I I I think he's got a good future to at least Propel Houston back to B eligibility but man not this year uh uh push to under low confidence Houston push to under low confidence on Houston yeah but this line sitting at four even it kind of gives you at least that push Insurance there but yeah this is a low win total and and for good reason but the offense is it's probably going to get worse I think personally I think it could get worse from 76 just because of all the wide receiver losses and think about the guys that they lost in the portal too Houston lost two fourstar rated transfers in the portal to Texas and Oregon and the offensive line is is probably going to be pretty bad I I have in my notes I think this is probably going to be one of the worst offensive lines in the league so Donovan Smith yeah he's coming back but he's got experience but I think what's around him is taking a massive step back it's going to be a bit of a struggle and then at on the defensive side I don't know if it's quite as Bleak as initially presented because they I think they did it I mean this was the 109th defense last year is terrible but they added in a lot of depth in the portal and I do like the talent that they did that they added in the portal I think it may take time because these guys are all new but I could see this unit jumping inside the top 100 simply because one it's just a good coaching staff and a good defensive coordinator hire that Fritz brought over from tane I think it may take some time but I actually think there's a chance this defense ends up being the better unit of the two sides of the ball at the end of the year for Houston so that's at least one thing but it's going to take some time my model only has Houston a 3.8 win so just under this four number I don't have them as a strong favorite in in any games not a single game I have them as a strong favorite in I think the the biggest favorite I have them in is against UNLV where I have them as a 65% chance to win which really isn't uh that's not saying much considering it's UNLV but the point is these five games that I have as toss-ups or probables are UNLV rice sincy Baylor and BYU luckily they did draw three of the other bad teams in the Big 12 Cincy Baylor by but they're either toss-ups or are barely favored against those teams that non-conference slate you know you're going to take the lost to Oklahoma UNLV and rice it's like UNLV and rice are not like the worst of the G5 they're kind of like the they're definitely top half of the G5 in terms of talent so those are those are two G5 teams that you might lose to I mean hell I already mentioned it you they lost to rice last year so you better beat rice this year so yeah it's I I don't see how they can get above this four number personally if they do get above this four number and they win five games I mean tip of the cap Willie Fritz if I was a Houston fan and you made if you won five games or if you even got to a bowl game with this roster I mean man Willie Fritz is knocking out of the park like right off the bat but I just don't see that happening um yeah I'm going to go under four wins and I'm going to say it with medium confidence this play at at four I'm going to go medium confidence to the under because I have a hard time seeing them getting the five I just don't know if the path is there but you know you already mentioned it long-term Arrow long-term trajectory with this coaching staff I like it things are definitely pointing up it's just going to be a tough rebuilding year I I see Houston is very similar situation to Michigan State with Jonathan Smith good coaching staff just tough rebuild in year one so I think year two will be the the year to look out for Houston fans so just preach patience there all right all right next Oklahoma State up the Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State comes in with a win total of eight wins on Caesar a huge juice to the over at minus 160 Mike Gundy entering his 20th season 20th season at Oklahoma State can you believe that man this is going to be this is going to mark two decades of Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State pretty surreal Cowboys went 10 and four last year wild season they looked like one of the worst teams at the Big 12 after the first month and then they won the final bed they had some crazy wins last year they ended up going to the big 12 championship game I mean what a wild ride for Oklahoma State last year uh sort of came out of nowhere and that big 12 championship appearance certainly a good omen I would say and something that this team can shoot for this year but Zan this is your Alma moer Oklahoma State take us away on the pokes in 2024 I mean I love the pokes this year man I mean I think we're really strong like all over the place except for two pretty key areas I'm concerned about and that's quarterback and dline quarterback mainly because you know Allen Bowman I mean yeah he threw for 3,400 yards last year but look at that ratio man 15 tutes 14 pigs that's not going to get the job done there we we we can definitely admit that Oklahoma state was very fortunate in some of these games last year to come away with the victories and I'm happy to be on the winning side of that but more often than not you're not going to consistently be on The Winning Side or have lady luck on your side like that so Oklahoma State really needs to see improvement from Alan Bowman this year in terms of ratios efficiency all those things and what happens with Alan Bowman is going to determine how far this team goes the quarterback play is incredibly important because you have a great running back in Olie Gordon do Walker winner 1700 yards 21 touchdowns on over six yards a carry I mean that's absolutely insane and then you have an entirely experienced offensive line coming back all seniors so it's going to be a pretty good group together and you're more than like too deep with guys who have like significant snaps this is one of the better o lines that the pokes have had in a while then you look at the wide receivers you got Brandon presy coming back he's basically a thard guy you've got Rashad Owens coming back he's a 900 yard guy you've got dejan stribling coming back who was actually the number one alpha dog before getting hurt last year he was doing great and then we've got Talon cetron who was like a 95 grade guy so this this wide receiver room's got some dogs in it um there's no excuse for this offense not to be good this year it's all hinges it all hinges on Alan Bowman's play and Alan Bowman's going to have to step up if the pokes want to win the Big 12 this year and have a chance at the college football playoff it's just how it goes now we look over at the other side of the ball and what really concerns me and I will say year one I think Brian Nardo did much better than anyone expected in his first year not everyone will agree with that but for for a first year coach he did a great job an absolutely great job especially coming from again in University come on now I think Brian Aro is doing great but my concern is the defensive line man we H we basically have Colin clay Cody walteri starting and if you know me like I've never been a big Walter shy guy even when his big brother played at OSU he it was always more of like a grit and a family kind of thing as to why Gundy chooses to start him rather than like raw talent I remember his older brother I think started for three seasons and like didn't record a single sack um in those first three seasons or some some crazy stat like that and so for me that that that's kind of speaks volumes but either way if you look at PFF same thing does not grade well but at least the transfer Obi ezigbo grades pretty decently although he comes from a lower level I believe juko um so we'll see um if that pans out but that's the biggest weakness for this defense otherwise Oklahoma State's pretty solid at these other levels here they've got Nick Martin Colin Oliver and Justus right in the linebacker group very solid group right there then you've got Cory black and cam Smith returning Cory Black's basically been a starter his entire career cam Smith you know has been getting some playe time has been emerging a little bit so we'll see if he could take another step in his game then you've got Kendall Daniels returning I mean everyone Oklahoma state knows who candle Daniels is and then you've got a couple other safeties um who are looking to slate back in you know like LC rolls Trey Rucker Ty Williams guys who have like good pedigree and who everyone really likes so we'll see if that they could slay in and uh step up so overall there's a lot of potential with this Mike Gundy team you can never count out Mike Gundy as we were last year after losing to South Alabama and getting getting crushed by South Alabama everyone said this season's cooked the season's over and somehow someway somehow that team made it to the Big 12 Championship still I don't know how you do with my Gundy you make me you make me doubt you you make me think it's it's time and then you make me think okay maybe you know what you're doing and you do it time and time again like it it is the ultimate it's the ultimate roller coaster of emotions with Mike Gundy and being an Oklahoma State football fan but anyway let's dive into the schedule here man you play South Dakota State week one that's look you should win that game but that's not going to be a cakewalk South theota State hasn't lost a football game in over two years I mean they're like the FCS Kings right now they did lose a lot off that National Championship team though they had like something crazy like 40 or 30 or 40 seniors so I I would expect Oklahoma State take care business they should win the game but I will say they are the defending FCS Champions yes just because I'm they haven't lost in a couple years and I'm so scarred from that South B game you're given that South Bama was a D1 opponent though I'll give him that a good sunb belt team um still man like it still gives me cause for concern then you but they should win you play Arkansas Arkansas is not as good as they were in years past they're definitely down you you should be able to be Arkansas and you're at home should be able to be Arkansas as the operative we here um then you go at Tulsa I'm hoping that you start 3-0 there worst case scenario it's two- one if Arkansas gets you then you play Utah that is a crucial game that is like the battle of the Mike gundies Kyle Whittingham and Mike Gundy is like they they're the same dude just in different parts of the world like I mean they've both been at their respective schools for the basically the same amount of time I think they're hired in the same year they have both brought up programs who don't have a significant amount of financial backing um like relative to like the& and Texas of the world and they develop really well and have a lot of success so it's literally like the Mike Gundy Kyle Whittingham blueprint playing each other right here so a lot of respect I can't definitively say Oklahoma state will win that game I actually kind of think Utah would be a favorite in that game um even Oklahom State's at home then you go at Kansas State that's just a rough slate right there you got to play Utah and then play K State boy you could easily go 0 and2 in that stretch right there um so it could start ugly for the pokes then you get West Virginia but you're at least at home and historically I know West Virginia has gotten you here recently but historically generally speaking OSU usually gets West Virginia I think they would take West Virginia right here then on a bye you go at BYU should be able to get BYU off the bye I believe then you should be able to beat Baylor should be able to be Arizona State so the schedule gets a little lighter there you go at TCU I have that more as a toss up but you should be able to win that one you get a bye-week to play Texas Tech who I think is improved but even when Tech improves and has good teams some way somehow Oklahoma State always finds a way to have their number in in the strangest ways and like in almost every M meeting that they have even when Tech is improved and then you go at Colorado which by that point I think Colorado will be in full quit mode because they won't even be bull eligible by then more than likely so you know shadur probably won't even be playing you know a lot of their I'm sure Prime will be benching all his like starters or at least at least his son so come that game I think Oklahoma state will be in in good shape so let's look at this my potential losses Arkansas Utah Kate West Virginia uh TCU and Tech I'll say those are like your potentials right I think you can at least go three and three in those potentials if you go three and three in that you're looking at nine and three even if you go two and four you're looking at at least a push there so I'm not thinking they're going to go one and five and get the under in these potentials so I like them to go at least three and three or two and four for push to over get me over on my pokes um I'm going to go at this with uh we'll say moderate confidence moderate or medium confidence in Oklahoma State over eight wins I like it well I share uh pretty much uh the same level of optimism sort of uh this team though there's a lot of there's a lot of weird things to look at with this team and I think it's because last year was such a weird season so there's a lot of conflicting uh there's a lot of conflicting messages that I'm being told here when I do my analysis on this team but I'll get into that offense it has to improve like I say improved by the Fall a lot and I usually say that when I'm talking about bad bad teams or bad units well literally the entire offense is coming back so it's got to be better I really think that Allan Bowman yes touchdowners said ratio not great last year turnovers were certainly an issue but I don't really know how much there is to improve with Alan Bowman I mean the guy's what like 24 this is like a six year in college football got be older than that yeah yeah probably older than that but I don't really know how much more room for improvement there is I think it is with Alan Bowman it kind of it is what you get he is what he is at this point the thing is with with the quarterback room is there's a chance here and you know this as well there's a chance here that Bowman might not even be the best quarterback on this roster but more than likely not but I mean gundy's track gundy's track record would show that he probably isn't the best quarterback on the roster I.E Brandon Weeden being the third string in 2009 future first round pick uh yes gunny does have a track record for not starting the best quarterback on the roster and there's a chance that that Alan Bowman is not the best quarterback on this roster but I view that as a good thing uh when judging these win totals because it means you got quarterback insurance but overall I like this Cube UB room one through three I think either one of those three guys can start between Garrett Rangel and Zan Flores behind him uh yeah I mean the skill positions are just amazing I mean you got Brenan Presley who's a projected round four pick you have Oly Gordon projected late first round pick a running back I mean this this this team is good and then as far as the defense uh there's a lot of interesting shuffling of positions and one thing that apparently they're going to be doing is they're going to be moving Kendall Daniels to linebacker is is he's going to be uh like a kind of a hybrid he's going to come down as a linebacker but also come back as a safety he's going to be doing both like a Rover position sort of deal basically yeah there's a lot of reshuffling I heard Colin Oliver as well like kind of is user or more suited for the 425 wants to play up front a little bit more but still at linebacker it's going to be interesting on the on the surface though I do love this linebacker room I think it's probably one of the best linebacker rooms in the Big 12 if not the best linebacker is definitely the strength to this defense um I'm not as down on the defensive line as you are if as a unit uh Oklahoma State graded out as as kind of average on the defensive line last year and yeah some guys not the greatest individual grades but when you have that much experience returning I feel like and they added a little bit of depth in the portal as you highlighted I feel like the offense or the defensive line rather might be able to be about above average in the Big 12 play this year but we'll see but I wouldn't say like a massive jump there um I think for me the weakness on this defense is probably the safety room in my opinion I think the safety room is the one thing that you can point at it was a problem last year but other than that you know I was personally surprised that this defense was 37th overall in schedule adjusted deficiency higher than the offense was that was kind of a surprise to me I think if anything it kind of tells you that Brian Nardo might be the goods if he did what he did last year with that defense I think a lot of Oklahoma State fans are probably uh this defense wasn't quite as bad as you may have thought last year I think that what Brio's doing great job yes and with most of the defense returning I think that there's a chance here this defense can jump up and be be pretty solid this year but but we shall see um my model believe it or not is not the biggest fan of the pokes in in 2024 it is not like Oklahoma State for some reason let me let me have you guess here what do you think the model has in terms of wins for Oklahoma State seven it has six 6.7 wins for Oklahoma State terrible I don't get it I do not get it man I I don't get it but the model is not high in Oklahoma State it has uh Oklahoma State's underdogs versus Utah at Kansas State at TCU the mod likes TCU a lot and then it has toss-ups versus Arkansas West Virginia at Baylor not really a tossup but you know a probable and then Texas Tech and then at Colorado at the end of the year the thing is though I I disagree with the model there on that assessment they're a little bit better than Arkansas you should beat Arkansas in fact I think you have to beat Arkansas because Arkansas is going to be one of the worst teams in the SEC they have a coach that's probably going to be fired at the end of the year you don't they don't have KJ Jefferson anymore like you I know they're an SEC team but that's going to be one of the worst SEC teams this year for the big 12's reputation and for your own sake you have to beat Arkansas that is a must-win in my opinion and as far as Colorado I think the fact that they do get Colorado the end of the year like you said is a good thing because if Colorado's out of Big 12 Championship contention at that point J Sanders and Travis Hunter are opting out for the season they're not playing Deion Sanders probably not even gonna be the coach at Colorado next year goes down he's like I'm good yeah that I think the timing of when they play Colorado is great that might be a team that has no business uh taking the field there at the end of the year assuming that their season goes as we expect it to go however but I like the scheduling Dynamics here I think that's one thing that the model maybe is overlooking their two bi weeks are middle and late in the season I like that they have the bye to prepare for Texas Tech which is the team I'm pretty high on they drew Arizona State Baylor BYU West Virginia at home I mean those are some of the middlet to weaker teams in the Big 12 they got four of them this year so I think honestly including Colorado it's sort of a overall I'd say favorable Big 12 draw I think the biggest thing is that you just got up front you got that Utah and Kansas State game up front but if you can get through those two those first two games against Utah K State let's say you split and go one and one I think you're looking pretty good for the rest of the year because most of those games the rest of the year in my opinion are pretty winnable and you have those two by weeks still ahead of you after that Utah and Kansas State slate so I'm I'm liking the scheduling Dynamics here for Oklahoma State and that's a reason why this win total which by the way this win total opened up at 6 and a half at the beginning of the summer and it just got hammered over so this thing's been been hammered up all the way to 8 but anyways I'll get to the just I'll get to the point here my final assessment on Oklahoma State I'm going to go over but I'm going to go at it with low confidence because I can't just completely ignore my model here I think the reason why my model is down in Oklahoma state is because it knows that Oklahoma State went 5- one last year in one possession games and yes they did have a lot of bounces go their way last year they had a lot of good Fortunes in one possession games it was definitely not the second best team in the Big 12 despite the fact that they made the Big 12 championship game I think we all can agree on that the thing though I think that is completely offset by the fact that virtually the whole team is coming back and if you look under the hood especially on the defensive side of the ball I kind of like what I see so I think that's why this line of eight wins I think is pretty fair in my opinion it's a it's going to be a tougher Big 12 this year it's an overall really balanced league and I think 8-4 maybe 9 and three I think is a fair assessment for Oklahoma State in 2024 so I'm going to go lean over with low TCU confidence moving on to TCU the horn frogs coming with a win total of seven and a half a shade to the under there at minus 150 on Caesars TCU man what a roller coaster between uh 2022 to 2023 you go from Lally playing for the national championship to not even making a bowl game last year five and seven quite a dip in the sunny Dy second season in Fort Worth but the good news is that this year I think they are probably in store for a bounceback and the sports books agree with that they have their win total pegged at seven and a half so certainly a lot better than five and seven from last year what's your take on the horn frogs in 2024 Zan well I've got a new DC Andy Avalos who is a fired from Boise State so that'll be interesting to monitor with this team um look over at the offense because I'm just going to go about this how I normally go about this um Josh Hoover is returning um decent player uh he has room to grow room to develop we'll see uh about 2200 yards passing last year so there's a little bit to uh be happy with right there if you're a horn frog fan uh I do look at the running backs though it's a little bit questionable I mean You' got cam cook I mean you know good young player but he hasn't really done anything yet and then you've got Trey Sanders coming back who's been honestly let's be real Sanders has been due to injuries and other various things in his career he has he has not lived up to his potential at all not even close and so their running back room is a little bit to be desired or at least it's very unproven and then we see their wide receivers and Savon Williams who's a 500 yard guy you got John Paul Richardson another 500 yard guy but I do like the addition of Eric mallister who's a 80070 yard guy from Boise state so they do have some options at the wide receiver position for Josh Hoover to throw to but we look at the offensive Lin man they lost Brandon Coleman to a tackle goes in the third round and like we mentioned it's really hard to replace a third round tackle um and unless you're like one of these you know High Echelon Big 10 or SC teams who can just go buy one in the portal um you know so I'm ultimately expecting this team to probably be a little bit worse off on the o line but they did bring in bless Harris who grades out pretty decently to replace place them at the tackle position so hopefully that'll be a Saving Grace for the uh for the frogs this year ultimately I think their offensive line will be an average unit not a terrible unit not a good unit just kind of right there in the middle it just needs to be serviceable enough for this offense to function they were a pretty solid offense last year Shu they were pretty efficient they were in the top 30 um but I don't know if that's going to maintain this year we will see it's going to be interesting I think they'll still Teeter in the top 40 but can they in top 30 status I don't know looking over at the defensive line you've got tman Mell returning in the middle he's all right but the rest of that dline doesn't look really too Stout I look back at the linebackers I say Davon Leo or Davon deal coming in from tan he grades out pretty well and you return nandi obzor who grades out pretty well so you've got some backup right there to that D line but you look at at the secondary you lose Josh Newton to the NFL so that's obviously going to hurt when you lose an NFL corner but they did bring in J Travis Bron from Utah as well as lamarion Hayes um and return Abe Kamar at the nickel so I mean they've got some talent in the secondary as TCU always seems to have talent in their secondary and that's that's no you know uh exception this time around you bring Bud Clark back youve got some Safety Action But ultimately man I don't know why the model or your model is so high on TCU I look at this team and I mean yeah they've got some Talent here on this roster but I don't see a significant proportion of this roster that just makes me go wow this is a really really good unit you know um I see etcu here at 7.5 uh for this win total they go at Stanford early season I think that could be a little trappy because Stanford although isn't the greatest team they're still well coached it's early season you could easily lose that game if you were not ready for that game that one have and sat Stanford I have that one up and tossup territory you play Liu after that you should beat them then you've got UCF who is no Cakewalk then you got at SMU and the iron skillet which at SMU it doesn't matter home away it doesn't matter if they iron skillet your Dallas Fort Worth area then you go at Kansas could be a little tough early season then you get Houston then you get a bye to go at Utah so getting a bye to prepare for Utah is nice you play Texas Tech then you go at Baylor Oklahoma State by week to prepare for Arizona which is nice and then you finish the season at Cincinnati shoot their schedule's kind of tough man um I look at their schedule and and the model your model must love them and and sports books must love them too because they're giving them seven and a half and I know that this is juice to the under and I think it's with good reason because quite honestly Shu I I just don't I don't see how they win eight games on this schedule unless they are just significantly better than I'm expecting them to be um and that's not even a notch on TCU I think that's more of a speaking volumes about the Big 12 from top to bottom just being more quality um with these new additions as well uh your only guaranteed wins on here I'd say are like Liu you should be able to beat Houston uh you should be able to beat Baylor and Cincy uh and those aren't even all guarantees but those are like your you should walk away with these wins then you should potentially be able to beat Stanford although that one does scare me early on and then I don't I don't know and then maybe you steal a few in the middle here but you're going to have to steal more than a few to get this overshoot and for me I I don't know that I see TCU getting to eight here um I think it's more likely that they actually maybe go six and six or seven and five then they go eight and four and so I'm going to go under on the TC horn frogs I'm going to do this with medium confidence medium confidence on the under for TCU well this will be our first uh I won't say it's a huge disagreement honestly but um I'm a little bit higher on TCU and I mentioned the model was a little bit higher on TCU as well but that was higher in relation to what was on Oklahoma State schedule in the last segment the model actually has TCU at 7.4 so the model thinks that TCU that this line is actually very appropriate so uh it's all relative you know it's all relative speak but the point is I think I'm in agreement with you about the offense even though I do like I do like Josh Hoover and I think that there's a good chance for him to take a step forward from last year in his sophomore season uh he showed out a lot as a as a freshman last year taking over for Chandler Morris when Morris got injured if you look at their their numbers comparatively it was pretty much a comparable uh passing stats between Josh Hoover and Chandler Morris the only difference is of course Josh Hoover can't run like Tron Morris did so overall that that dual threat ability is not there with Josh Hoover as it was with Morris but I still like the idea of having Josh Hoover in a full season I think that there was a chance that TCU won't skip a beat in the quarterback room this year compared to last year and yeah skill positions definitely definitely taking some downgrades here I mean you lose arguably your two best offensive players last year imman Bailey and Jared Wy a tight end Jared Wy was a great tight end for TCU and so you lose your two best skill position guys um they did add some depth in the portal but is there really going to be that that standout guy in in the skill positions um rooms for me that's the big question an offensive line too is just it's a huge question mark I mean you have few starters returning so TCU did have like one of the best offensive lines the Big 12 last year I'm with you I think it has to regress this year it's probably going to be average this year I would say but the fact that Sunny Dykes had to go in and get what three starters in the portal I think shows that he's not happy with his offensive line or at least with the pieces that he had returning so I have to imagine this offensive line takes a step back this year but on the defensive side of the ball they were 66 last year I think this is where the TCU can can take a jump because of course you already mentioned AOS at DC on the defensive line there is some returning experience and a lot of those guys individually great at average I think they need they need true sophomore Paul or W to take a step forward if that happens I don't think this defensive line will be quite as bad as it was last year and I likeed what they did in the portal with their linebacker editions Caleb elamor fourstar from Cal Devon Neil from Tain you already mentioned uh pairing them with ob aor that that's a solidly good linebacker room in my opinion I really think that the the only perceived weakness for me is maybe the secondary I think I think the secondary is probably the weakest unit as a whole on this defense I like their front six uh a lot more than the than the secondary but that's that's me personally but as far as the schedule you know 7.4 wins that's what the model has I'm totally with you if you don't bring your A game or if you don't bring bely your b game for Stanford you're at risk of losing that game it is a little bit more of a tougher draw however um I do like that they get Utah and Arizona off buys I have toss-ups UCF at Kansas at Utah versus Texas Tech and then Oklahoma State those are what my model has toss-ups against it has them as a underdog against SMU which I don't agree on that's another team that we disagree on I'm not as high in SMU as you are I think that the iron skillet is a little bit closer to a tossup I'd probably still favor SMU just to hair because it's at SMU granted I don't you you already said it I don't know if that really matters a whole lot but it's DFW yeah yeah but you get the point I I see that game as mainly a 5050 and then it has them as an underdog to Arizona I think the the model likes Arizona a good bit too even though we haven't got to them yet so yes there are a lot of toss-ups and there's a couple games where TCU is an underdog um 7.5 does seem like a little bit more of an ambitious line but my model's saying that it's pretty accurate another thing too with TCU last year they went 0 and four in one possession games they did not have things go their way in one possession games last year I do not think that this team was nearly as bad as their record showed uh and I think that's evidenced by the fact that their offense was still a top 25 offense last year their defense was not great but it wasn't bad it wasn't piss po bad so I really do think that this is still a very solid team and I see them winning anywhere between six to seven and I think maybe if things go well for them I think they can get to eight wins so I'm actually going to go over here and the only reason I'm going over is because I've had a lot of unders so far and um so mathematically it's got to go somewhere I gotta you know I I think I think I'm going at this low confidence by the way shocker but I think at the end of the day I was like listen it's TCU I I just don't think that last year's team was quite as bad as it showed and on the second hand like it's still TCU I think everyone's writing them off and Texas Tech for that matter as well like TCU and Texas Tech are very solid viable Big 12 contenders I think any given year I think last year they kind of quietly faded down because they just didn't have things go that well in one possession games I I see it bounce back like Sunny dyes is a good coach they have good coordinators I I think think this team is is just better than we're giving it credit for so I'm going to go over here but with low confidence for a lot of the same reasons that you said I schedule is schedule is not the easiest and there definitely are some some things you can poke at with this roster but I'm going to screw it I'm going to go over with low confidence for TCU so that's a little bit of a disagreement here with the horn frogs between you and I all right last but Texas Tech certainly not least here Texas Tech wrapping up this video in Big 12 part two Texas Tech comes in with a line of 7 and a half just like TCU slight hair to the under at minus 120 there on Caesars Joey McGuire entering his third season at Texas Tech they went seven and six last year Texas Tech definitely had a good bit of hype going into 2023 and did not live up to the billing of course Tyler shuck got injured I mean that's that's nothing new and then he transferred but you got Bayon Morton coming back and you got a good amount of starters returning especially on offense but yeah Texas Tech doing a lot of good things in recruiting and the portal but you got to start seeing those wins translate on the field and I think that's what Texas Tech fans are kind of expecting here it's kind of a put up or shut up year for Joy Maguire in year three what's your take on the Red Raiders Z you know what's really surprising to me shu is that you know when you think of Texas Tech football you think of all of the offensive explosions that they have had in the past two decades just offense offense off offense but this team last year their strength was actually their defense they spouted a top 30 defense last year and their offense was sub 50 so I mean that's what needs to change in order for this team to take that next lead Joy Maguire has gotten people in LEC really excited so much so like almost every year but then they consistently fall short of what the expectation is um that is set because Joy Maguire has been kind of bringing that heat he's been like honestly when I was watching Jo McGuire you know like everything runs through lck all these things that I'm like yeah that's a passionate fiery coach like yeah I can understand I can understand why players want to run through a wall for this guy that's what tech needs but they need that to translate into wins as well they need that attitude but they need the they need the they need him to walk the walk not just talk the talk and so that's kind of where we're at right now Baron Morton's probably going to be our starter this year uh Baron Morton has had I think he's a pretty good quarterback if I'm being honest with you um he um he's had his chances to play in the past and he's got DEC he's basically got a 2 to1 ratio and he's a good dual threat guy he's tough kid really like him I think he's got good potential he's certainly in my opinion much better than Tyler shuck or or what they've had in years past um but I really like the return of Taj Brooks that's kind of a big thing for me I mean Taj Brooks is a 1500 yard rusher those guys don't grow on trees and then you've got Cameron Valdez backing him up who's another who's basically a four-star guy really nice to have then I really like the addition of Josh Kelly from Washington State that's a great great ad by the Red Raiders 900 yards eight touchdowns coming in right there great production Washington state grows these good receivers man just for Big 12 teams to farm I'll tell you what but anyways then you have kin returning another 4 400 yard guy and then you brought in Caleb Douglas from Florida so we'll see if that translates at all getting an secd talent in there and then we look at the offensive line they've got some they picked up some solid guys in the portal and they've got a decent returner I think this will be a pretty solid offensive line unit um so honestly I expect improvement from the Red Raiders on offense this year I do and I know that you and I are both kind of drank the Kool-Aid a little bit on the Red Raiders last year and we ended up biting the bullet on that one but it seems like they do have some pieces here to take a step forward we look on the defensive line really Sol rotation of guys in the interior of that defense I actually really like this defensive line in general they have a good depth here and they also have addition U I really like the addition of De briland Carroll um that's also a very quiet sneaky good addition doesn't grade well on the in the transfer portal rankings but PFF certainly likes him and then we look back at the linebacking group you return Ben Robert who's a pretty average guy and the rest of the group could use a little bit of U encouragement but doesn't mean that it can't happen especially with Tim darer I think Tim darer is is doing a great job over there as the DC and then um we we look back you return brilin Lux who grades out pretty dang well you have Marian horn starting if I'm not mistaken Marian horn was a a four star if I'm not mistaking it does suck that you lose drien Taylor demerson to the NFL but you do return CJ Baskerville who also graded pretty well as a safety and then you're supplementing some other guys in to replace that so ultimately I think T is a pretty well-rounded team I don't see any laring issues with their team I think linebacker might be like one of their weaker areas uh there might be a hole like a small hole in the secondary but ultimately I mean this team is pretty well-rounded and they're they're going to be a pretty good team they were sub 50 offensive efficiency I like them to be in the top 40 this year if not the top 30 uh they're like top 30 in defense efficiency last year I like them to at least stay there um I really like Texas Tech man and we're looking at seven and a half wins schedule driven let's look at it man you you could be a good team but if your schedule doesn't like you it may not matter so let's see like the Red Raiders they play abene Christian should win that game you go at Washington State I will say that can be a tough game because it's early season and Washington State you know they're going to have a chip on their shoulder going into that game they just got left out in the cold by all the power four teams they didn't get an invite to a team or to the Big 12 a conference that they felt they were worthy to be in they're going to want to come punch the Red Raiders in the mouth I'll tell you that much and it's in Pullman that's not going to be an easy one I do favor Texas Tech in this game but this is not a definitive like knock it up win like for the Red Raiders then North Texas you should win that Arizona State I think you win that and then you get Cincinnati very failable draw to start the season your big 12 season with Arizona State and Cincinnati I think that's really good for the Red Raiders get some confidence start 2-0 League Play then you go at Arizona feeling a little bit confident I think you can give Arizona a run for their money that's a tossup you get a bye to prepare for Baylor I think you can be Baylor then you go at TCU I think you can play TCU pretty well I think you can either beat them or play a really close game you go at Iowa State I think you'll match up well with them I kind of favor Iowa State because they're at home you got Colorado again this is late season Colorado who knows if Colorado is even trying anymore by this point in the season if their season's already cooked then you get a byee to prepare for Oklahoma State that's huge because Oklahoma State's been a thorn in their side for so long having a bye-week to prepare for the pokes who is a team that also might be contending for the conference Championship at the end of the season that's big and then you got to finish at West Virginia Shu I mean I'm given five losses here to five losses is my is my window here teer between this over and this under these five losses let's see possibly possibly wazu possibly Arizona possibly TCU possibly Iowa State possibly Oklahoma State and possibly West Virginia otherwise the other ones I'd be shocked if they lost so that's maybe six teams I don't expect them to lose all six of those games and so with that being said they just have to go two and four in those six games and honestly I think the Red Raiders can do it I'm going over on the Red Raiders um and you know what I'm going to do low confidence though and the only reason I'm doing low confidence is because I have been burned by the Red Raiders before in believing in them and and I feel like every time that I that I buy a ticket to lck it never you know I never get to cash it in so very fair very fair on that confidence uh assessment there um yeah I am buying my ticket to loic this year and you know what yeah we got burned by them last year in fact I I specifically remember this team in particular being a team where I was like my I want to go over on them because I'm buying the hype my model is saying don't buy the hype and I and I bought on the hype went against the model and I paid for the price for that but you know what I think that this team has post type sleeper potential kind of like Penn State last year maybe was the year getting all this hype momentum I think maybe we were just a year too early I think this is the postype sleeper year for Texas Tech starting with the offense here's the thing we both like Bayon Morton Bayon Morton put up pretty solid numbers last year keep in mind he had an injured shoulders playing through an injury half the year and I'm just thinking if you get a full healthy season of Bayon Morton he can improve on rather mediocre numbers last year I think that there is another level to unlock there I mean just give the poor kids some health I think I think that's that's really what Texas Tech needs and frankly what Bon Morton needs for his career but I think just a healthy season he tough kid he's a tough kid and I think just some good health and some positive Health luck for him can go a long ways and I like that they brought in backup uh transfer Cameron Brown who was a three star rated transfer from West Georgia who's pretty solid dual threat option from the FCS level so I like that they did that as the backup option insurance policy there but you already win to detail on the on the receiver room I like it a lot as a Gator fan I can speak Caleb Douglas certainly not not the guy that's going to make your eyes pop but I think it's a very solid uh addition there for Texas Tech but I like what they did with the tight end room I think this tight end room is very quietly very good you brought in fourstar transfer Jaylen Conor from Arizona State and you also return Mason Tharp Mason Tharp 69 tight end last year great as a plus value player I mean this is a loaded tight end room and they're they're three deep at tight end I didn't even mention the third string guy I think they're three deep at tight end I really like Texas Tech um skill positions in particular the tight end room uh you already talked about tysh Brooks projected day two NFL draft pick right there one thing about the offensive line is that on paper I like this offensive line a lot uh you got those two transfers coming in from the G5 a left tackle and left guard I really like Tai buchannon at right tackle graded out very well and you got Caleb Rogers who was at offensive tackle last year graded out as a plus value guy but then they moving him to Right Guard which doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me but I don't know I mean I'm not the coach but if you're a Texas Tech fan you got to explain that one to me because the guy grayed out pretty well as a tackle from what I know about football tackle a premium position definitely harder to play than guard I don't know why you move a guy who's successful at tackle inside the guard but we shall see so I think this is this offensive line though I mean outside of the the shuffling of the deck that kind of confuses me it was one of the best big one of the best offensive lines in the Big 12 last year I think it's going to be better but it may regress if these changes don't pan out just but we we'll see I I just have some questions there but I could be wrong I'm going to go with optimism on the offensive line and then defensively man I have the same assessment this is quietly a very good defense my only questions like for you are in the secondary I think 24th last year in in defensive efficiency schedule adjusted I think we could see a jump for this defense inside the top 15 to 20 I think this is very quietly going to be a pretty solid pretty good defense my model has 7.2 wins for Texas Tech I actually did disagree with that I think that this win total should be closer or this the model win total should be closer to about eight because I think the scheduling Dynamics are very favorable and here's why I just talked about how I was confused about all the shuffling they did along the offensive line you got two transfers coming in on one side a left guard and and left tackle well here's the good news for Texas Tech offensive lines need need time the gel together this early season slate is perfect for them because outside of you know Washington State on the road and Pullman that might be a little tricky but you're still the better team Washington State lost cam more you should win that game those first five games are pretty favorable you should win all five of those games I they can easily start five and0 going into that Aiza game yes it's the perfect ramp up for this offensive line to gel together I think that's one thing that I'm kind of giving uh the the offensive line the benefit doubt here and secondly I look at the games where I only have them as underdogs I only have them as underdogs at Arizona and at Iowa State of course but the rest are are their either favorites or their toss-ups well you already mentioned they got the bye to prepare for Oklahoma State I know that's a away but you got the bye there to prepare we like that they have Colorado away or late in the season I should say they have Colorado at home but they have Colorado late in the season which I think is good and then you have West Virginia at home which is a team that you could consider in tossup territory I think this is very fav favorable scheduling Dynamics here for Texas Tech one by midseason October one by late in November I think that's perfect I I like the scheding Dynamics here I think this win total should be closer to eight um I'm calling my shot here at Texas Tech I think that this team can win eight games and honestly I wouldn't be surprised if they finish like nine and three assuming Bayon Morton can stay healthy which I if they start five and0 I think that's a good shot yeah it it's it's very it's very likely this team gets off to like a 5-0 start and they're ranked and everything I I think there's postype sleepy here like I said so I'm going to go over with medium confidence with Texas Tech the only reason I'm not going at it with high confidence is because it's Big 12 it's it's the big 12 like these so these teams are all pretty close to one another so you know one injury it can really just derail you know it's not like the big 10 where if Ohio State suffers an injury like oh boohoo you're still going to win like 90% of your games you know yeah it's in the Big 12 you suffer an injury a key position or one of your best players suffers an injury like these things you're cooked so that's why I can't go at all these teams here in this league with high confidence but when I feel good I'll go at it with medium confidence and I feel pretty good about Texas Tech I really like what they're doing but I'm with you it is really a put up or shut up here for Joey Maguire these WIS got to translate on the field but I I really like what they're doing in terms of what the talent that they're bringing in the portal recruiting of course I mean you brought in a fstar wide receiver and Hudson that's pretty exciting like that's awesome I I think that's very exciting time to be a Texas Tech fan and I think you can expect uh things um going in your favor in a positive way in year three under Joey Maguire so I really think that this is a this is a sleeper to win the Big 12 championship for me I think this is a sleeper team nobody's really talking about them uh to win the Big 12 I think that they should be in the mix so they absolutely are we thought that last year too though that's why I'm I'm treading lightly with just one confidence point xan is uh xan's not forgetting last year you get burned you get burned by one team one year it's hard to go at it again the next year but you know what if I get burned twice in a row by Texas Tech then so be it man I will I will never uh I will never buy in the Joey Maguire again if if he burns me but I every bone in my body is telling me that this is this is a sneaky good team you'll have a Gonzo Grudge I will have a Gonzo Grudge that's right well this will wrap up the second part of our Final Predictions & Big 12 Discussion big 12 win totals here and this was a fun batch teams to cover I enjoyed it and I I'm calling my shots here with these these last three teams we covered Oklahoma State TCU and Texas Tech I fired overs and all three of them I think I can get overs on two of the three I think between Oklahoma State TCU Tech give me two out of the three of those teams get me overs I feel pretty good about that these three teams that I just mentioned I think those are definitely in play for the big 12 Championship like that's what's kind of cool about the Big 12 I feel like yes there's favorites like Utah is going to be one of the favorites but there's probably like a solid six seven teams that like at the end of the year they could be up there like so it's it's kind of an exciting conference to watch in that respect yeah i' I'd make the argument I think I was going through this in my head I think you could make the argument there's like 10 teams that I think could make the conference Championship game maybe not win the league but I think let's just do it this way these are name name six name as many teams as you can that you think could sure will not make the big 12 Championship oh for sure well not uh Houston uh Baylor Arizona State BYU Arizona state by Cincinnati um is that it I mean I guess so so that's five so that means that's 11 teams basically everybody else I think you can make a good argument that that team if things bounce their way can make the big 12 championship game I mean that's that's almost two-thirds of the league right there I mean that's pretty awesome that's why it's hard to go out high confidence with any of these because there's just so much parody in the league exactly and and I love it and I think I think uh the big the new Big 12 you know now that I'm doing my research here and I'm looking at these team schedules and whatnot I'm like man this is this is going to be a fun League like I'm I am legitimately going to enjoy the Big 12 because it's going to be be a parody driven league and that's that's pretty fun um and I think that there's just going to be a lot of a lot of variants here so I'm looking forward to seeing how it plays out but the next video we got uh all the newcomers we got the Four Corners coming in from the Pack 12 plus BYU so it'll be all the West teams in the next video Arizona Arizona State BYU Colorado and Utah wrapping it up and that'll conclude the Big 12 before we move on to the SEC and yeah man we're trekking along here and if you're a fan of one of these big 12 teams leave us a comment let us know your thoughts and opinions let us know how you think do you agree with us do you disagree with us are there certain players you think we're overlooking are there certain players that you think maybe we are too high on just let us know let us know anything all comments and thoughts and opinions and without further Ado this is Anon Shu for the satday scholars signing out see y'all later and enjoy your offseason college football is coming shortly around the corner sat on the M break it down so right their 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