Why did ECB go only for 25 basis points? Christine Lagarde EU debates!

Published: Sep 12, 2024 Duration: 00:05:35 Category: News & Politics

Tags : euro war Forecast economy inflation Gas gdp debt ukraine war ECB banks prices rates energy independence gross domestic product Christine Lagarde european economy eudebates European Central Bank EU Economy Eurozone risk assessment ECOFIN Eurogroup EU energy President of the European Central Bank President of the ECB euro zone growth forecasts GDP growth Price rises ECB interest rates Economic activity monetary conditions Banking Union

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we decided to cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points and that was a unanimous decision we proceeded as we normally do and have very clearly indicated by obviously looking at data and looking in particular at data through the prism of our three key criterias so when you look at the incoming information it confirms our previous projections and it Comforts us in our confidence that we are heading towards our Target in a timely manner so during the course of 25 in particular inflation will decline towards our 2% Target and we thought that given that gradual disinflationary process it was perfectly appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction by cutting a deposit facility rate which I will call the dfr if you don't mind from now on it's the deposit facility rate uh by 25 basis points when I said that we looked at all the information that we get on the occasion of a projection exercise through our three prisms I'm referring obviously to the inflation Outlook I'm referring to the underlying inflation and I'm referring to the transmission of monetary policy and you know the the on the inflation Outlook when we receive the projections of our staff for September it's virtually unchanged relative to June for the inflation Outlook and it continues to see a return to 2% before the end of 25 and this is by the way the five consecutive projection exercise uh pointing to that 2% at the end of 25 so why do I say that because it certainly reinforces our confidence in the solidity and robustness of those projections that's for the first prism the inflation Outlook the underlying inflation on the other hand we look at the various indicators that we have uh from domestic to pcci and here we see one particular indicator the domestic indicator which is abating a little bit because it moved from 4.5 to 4.4 between uh June and July and it is not satisfactory it is resistant it is persistent this is the reason why we have to be resilient uh in our approach and very uh attentive to the various um components of um core inflation as measured by those various indicators the third prism is the policy transmission and on that front we all observed that the financing conditions are continue to be restrictive and the footprint of our monetary policy in the real economy has been visible so on the basis of that uh review of incoming data stuff and analysis consistency of the projections for the fifth exercise in a row that decision to cut by 25 basis points was perfectly legitimate and as I said unanimously decided I drink to the Future well future I I'm tempted to quote you know Spanish because we have consistently said and we repeat again that we shall remain data dependent and that is particularly justified in view of the uncertainty that abounds so we shall be data dependent we shall decide meeting by meeting and uh our path of which the direction is pretty obvious a declining path is not predetermined neither in terms of sequence nor in terms of uh volume and I would like to add one thing which I have already said before which is still true which is that data dependency does not mean data point dependency we're not going to be fixated on one single number we are looking at a a whole battery of indicators and I'm saying that in particular because September will certainly deliver a low reading of inflation very likely we expect because of the base effect particularly on energy our inflation numbers to be up in the third in the fourth quarter so the last three months of 24 but September is going to deliver a low reading but we're not just looking at one indicator we're looking at a whole range of data that we receive thank you madame lagard

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