CPI Data Out| Consumer Price Index At 3.65%| India Inflation Rate| Petrol, Diesel Price Cut Soon?

markets closed the day higher with the Nifty and sensex hitting record levels Nifty crossed 25,400 Mark sensex sold past 83,000 during the session the sensex jumped over 1,400 points and Nifty settled above 25350 all nifty 50 stocks except nesle ended the day in green with hindalco bti AEL and ntpc leading the rally Bajaj Housing Finance IPO becomes India's most subscribed ever with the total B amount for the public issue at warpping 3.24 lakh CR rupees topping 1% of India's GDP according to the NSO data India's nominal GDP at constant prices is estimated at 2 [Music] 95.35% today the decline followed the company's announcement that the US FDA the Food and Drug Administration and has issued six observation for its gelpur facility in Telangana maruti Suzuki India launches Swift CNG at a starting price of 8.1 lakh rupees in the new Avatar Swift CNG has better torque fuel efficiency and an additional variant with the introduction of Swift CG the country's largest car maker has now 14 CG models in its portfolio and what could bring relief to Consumers petrol and diesel prices May soon see a reduction if the global oil prices continue to stay low oil secretary punka Jen indicates that state run fuel companies are likely to consider slashing fuel prices provided crude oil rates remain depressed for an extended period of time the labor minister of Tamil Nadu has held talks with officials of Samsung Electronics today in a bit to resolve a strike that has disrupted its consumer electronics plant for 4 days now hundreds of workers at the plant in Chennai have boycotted work to seek higher wages in one of the biggest incidents of industrial unrests in recent years in India and commerce and Industry Minister peush goyel launches the trade connect platform e platform designed as a single touch point for existing and aspiring exporters to access essential information for increasing exports out of India the government has started working on the second phase of the semiconductor policy semicon 2.0 which is expected to be in place in next 3 to four months Union Minister Ashwi vnav said at semicon India 2024 event the minister also said that three to four states have attracted semiconductor Investments and one unit will soon come up in utar Pradesh the union cabinet approves a new scheme called prime minister electric Drive revolution in Innovative vehicle enhancement which is pme drive for promotion of electric vehicles in India replacing the earlier Flagship scheme Fame the ministry of heavy Industries will implement the new scheme with a total outlay of 10,900 CR rupees over a period of 2 years [Music] Alo and welcome you're watching in your interest I am scha kotari India's retail inflation has surged to 3.6% on an annual basins on August in August of 2024 as against 5year low of 3.54% according to data released just a couple of minutes back the food inflation which accounts for around half of the overall CPI basket accelerated to 5.66% in August from a 13mon low of 5.42% in the previous month the data has now revealed the headline inflation number all beat within the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance range of 2 to 6% has come in slightly higher in the month of August what does it really mean for the economy and whether this will dim the chances of a possible rate cut in future let's talk about that joining us on the show is miali nikor founder and chief Economist at at nior Associates malali good to have you back on the show thank you very much for taking time out your first quick reaction on the inflation at 3.65% slightly above than all the other estimates out there thanks thanks sha for having me as always uh for sharing uh my analysis on this so I think one of the charts that you were just showing you know before we cut into the screen was around the data over the last year on month onto Monon inflation and if you notice the numbers for August 2023 actually stood at 6.83 whereas the number for August 2024 is sitting at 3.65 now if you look there's a clear declining Trend in the annual inflation rates on a month on month basis over the last year I would say that this is very good news for the Indian economy because it means that all the efforts that the RBI has been taking in terms of keeping interest rates constant for the you know last five or six meetings and discussions and deliberations that the RBI monitary policy committee has been having are now bearing fruit and we're seeing that inflation is stabilizing the other factor which is kind of driving this more stable inflation rate is the lower fuel prices that you were also talking about earlier that you know if you see global fuel prices stabilizing a little bit we see that cut is now going to start passing on to consumers in the prices of goods uh that are being transported from place to place so Logistics cost comes down also investment in the logistics sector I think starting to bear fruit now where we see that the overall inflation rates are falling so I would not actually read this okay I want to I want to stick to right now inflation numbers I I will go to petrol and diesel prices in just a bit but uh sticking on to food inflation the number here coming in at 5.66% for the month of August uh is slightly higher in fact a lot higher uh if you look at it in percentage terms from 5.42% in the previous month to 5.66% in the month of August what are you making of food inflation still uh continues to be a pain Point uh not just for the headline inflation number but also for people at large uh sha actually I would say that in this quarter we are doing much better on food inflation than the previous quarter because you can see that in the previous quarter we hit a high of almost 9% in June whereas in the last one or two months we've managed to get that under control as well and bring it down to below 6% which I think is an important Target you know having below 6% food inflation rate given the uncertainties that are associated with the different climatic events even in this quarter we have seen some droughts some floods coming in and despite that you know the food inflation being managed because of the rice and wheat distribution schemes that actually make it easier for a large proportion of the population to at least access basic food grains so I think there is a good management of the food inflation but we definitely need to invest in uh you know better mechanisms of food distribution another number that has come out uh uh just you know a couple of minutes back is the India industrial output growth uh for the month of July at about 4.8% uh is that well within the expectation I think sha that's a little bit lower than what I was personally expecting I was expecting that to be uh you know a little bit higher in the range of five you know 5.5% because we've been seeing very good numbers when it comes to manufacturing growth if you remember you know even for the GDP data that came out recently we saw manufacturing growth coming in at 7% before that at 10% so I was actually expecting the iip to be a little bit higher in this uh you know in this cycle but I think it's a little bit lower than my expectation I was expecting in the range of 5% okay what played the spoil sport uh from what I'm reading uh it slowed to 4.8% in July mainly due to poor show by mining manufacturing sectors could that be because in the month of July we were just coming out of uh the election Euphoria so perhaps it will start picking up now in the month of August actually in facta you're very right this this links with the entire macroeconomic scenario in the country in the April to June quarter because a lot of decision making you know is paused during election Cycles a lot of decision making around policies around approvals that gets a little bit you know stalled and I do think that we'll see new investment decisions also industrialists will try to defer their investment decision to seeing okay where is the political uh you know environment coming to be more stable with states which locations Etc all these choices and decisions are sometimes deferred till you know post elections so that is definitely one reason but I do feel that there is a overall macroeconomic slowdown that we did witness with the GDP numbers and I think somewhere we have to look at our own investment strategies uh especially in the manufacturing sector making them more export oriented making them more climate resilient these are two important measures we need to start taking in order to boost growth okay and uh another you know important obviously was the number that came out of US inflation data that number was important at 2.5% at a 43 month low year- on-ear in the month of August are we looking at and this was lower than expectation so are we looking at therefore uh uh you know some sort of uh realignment on what could come by the way of a Fed rate cut come 18th of September absolutely I think the whole whole Global markets are waiting for the Fed rate cut and I do think that the RBI will also follow it up with a rate cut given the lower than expected GDP numbers it and also a good solid record on inflation management the conditions are now right for the RBI to come and announce a rate cut even in you know the Indian interest rates on the back of reductions in the US interest rates I do expect the US interest rate cuts to be uh not so deep I think they are in two phases what is your expectation given there's been there's been a conflict of data here emerging while the jobs data has been extremely disappointing inflation still continues to inch up uh we were looking at and and you know a lot of economists and obviously the Fed was looking at a possibility of a soft Landing uh do you think they have been able to mitigate uh you know the inflationary pressures so far so it's about time now for a major rate cut what is your expect expectation around us rate cut will it now be tempered given that inflation data is not very favorable no I think a 2.5% inflation rate is still very manageable but I still think they're going to go with their original plan of a soft Landing so maybe two you know a 0.25 to 0.5 basis points in this round and then another .5 uh or maybe even 1% in uh you know in in December but at least for now now it will be tempered 0.25 to.5 basis points I don't think it'll be more than that all right not more maybe more than half a percentage point but what about India are we looking at a possibility of a rate cut anytime soon will the RBI follow us fed should it wait for us fed to cut rates because if you're looking at India inflation numbers it is coming well within the range uh well below 4% at least in the last few months would you say that 4% is The New Normal below the 4% R range is The New Normal or should we wait for a couple of more months to for it to be constant at 4% before RBI starts cutting rate I think at this point in time we can't call uh below 4% new normal but at the same time we have to now consider is this the right time for the rate cut and I think conditions are right for a rate cut because at the end of the day this is the time when we're seeing the GDP numbers you know slow down we can't afford for a GDP slowdown in any case because at the end of the day when we look at our overall growth goals poverty reduction goals goals around income redistribution around improving the standard of living for our population all of that requires macroeconomic growth and therefore uh you know the conditions with inflation being stable are good for the RBI to announce a rate cut maybe following uh you know the signals given by the US fed but definitely they have to wait and watch for the US fed signals all right uh well that's the word coming in as far as inflation data uh is concern and whether RBI will cut interest rates post us feds we'll of course have to wait for just a couple of more days to figure that out mithali continue to stay with us we'll be 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remain depressed for an extended period of time now this comes as India seeks to ramp up crude purchases from costeffective suppliers like Russia while also pushing for increased output from OPEC countries currently oil prices have dipped to near three years lows enhancing the profitability of fuel marketing companies on Tuesday Brent crude oil fell below $70 per barrel for the first time since December of 2021 sparking hope for a reduction in pump prices the drop is attributed to concerns over a Slowdown in global economic growth which is weighing in on energy demand now state run fuel retailers who control about 90% of India's fuel Market are now enjoying favorable marketing margins due to the lower Global prices if the trend persists a price cut at pumps could be on the horizon for Indian consumers meanwhile on the domestic front crude oil prices edged up on Thursday crude oil futures for October delivery Rose by 51 to 579 per barrel on the multic commodity exchange as Traders widen their position on the back of strong spot demand globally oil prices also ticked up with West Texas intermediate crude climbing to 1.2 6816 per barrel which is about 1.26% and Bren crude gaining 1.32% in New York now malali nikor continues to be with us on the show miali uh you know from what we are picking up and what oil secretary is saying there is a possibility of a petrol or diesel rate cut do you think oil marketing companies are likely to pass on that benefit of extended lower Global crude oil prices to Consumers anytime soon absolutely scha I think this is very much on the cards because again this links with the broad broader macroeconomic context in which we are currently situated and operating what we have observed is that in the April to June quarter we saw a Slowdown in the GDP growth now of course A lot of it is attributable to the elections but at the same time the government realizes that there is a need to create jobs very rapidly and there is a need to boost the growth rates in the overall macroeconomy now oil prices play a massive role in that because because they impact the price and the overall inflation rates and they impact the price of nearly every commodity so when you pass on a rate cut in terms of oil prices to the economy it's almost the same impact as you know a rate cut on the interest rate side on the monetary side so this can be a massive boost a fiscal measure in a sense for the economy and and almost like a bonanza for the economy so I do think that this is on the cards this is already been announced by the petroleum secretary and I think that each of the state run companies will have to pass on the benefit to the consumers and it will really have a you know growth effect booster pill shot for the economy in that sense okay and and obviously also likely lower inflationary pressure uh you know despite and apart from uh making it easier for people to be able to afford petrol and Diesel which climbed to an all-time high in the last couple of months at about 9200 100 rupees per liter in India at the moment but what sort of hold does petroleum Ministry really have now the last uh slashing price we saw was in March this was around election time uh which is when usually we've seen in the past that petrol and diesel prices are slashed down what measures and tools can the government really use right now to bring down the prices because from what we understand they can only nudge of state run refiners to cut down prices but it's really in their hand it's in the hands of om's of course it's in the hand of MC's but the MC's are also uh you know at at some level there is an understanding that the omcs are operating these companies as a public good as a public service and they are financed at the end of the day by government uh you know advisers by government uh functionaries not So Much by bureaucrats but but by functionaries by way of uh you know and by the appointment of the government of India so there is you know there is a sway that the petroleum Ministry does have on the omcs and at the same time the omcs also realized that this will make good business sense because when you pass on a lower price to the consumers the amount of sales the Quantum of sales is likely to shoot up and it will create a you know a virtual cycle across the economy that will boost macroeconomic demand and boost sales even further so I think this is more of a business decis right absolutely but you know as since we are short on time I also want to understand from you what sort of time Horizon are you looking at because from what I'm reading and from what's coming out is that perhaps MC's in India are going to be on a wait and watch mode because remember crude oil prices globally were about $90 a barrel in the month of April they've come down now to $70 a barrel there is an extended volatility so our OMC is going to wait because India you know Imports nearly 87% of its crude oil needs should they be waiting for a while before they start passing on or do they have enough Corpus built up uh by the way of the margins that they have acred it's about time to start passing on immediately no I don't think it'll be immediate there will be some wait and watch but I don't think the wait and watch period will be too long I do believe that in the next two to three weeks actually we could hear an announcement on this front at least maximum two to three weeks I don't think they'll wait more than that okay and uh before I let you go I think we all know how geopolitical risks uh play out on petrol and diesel prices and they're likely to you know maybe disrupt Supply chains going forward would that mean that Global crude oil prices may start inching up in a couple of uh you know days from now no I don't expect Global crude oil prices to inch up so fast I do I mean at this point in time the geopolitical tensions that we're seeing are almost like a permanent fixture of you know the global trade and the global economy and Global Supply chains are being re-engineered to a great extent they have been re-engineered uh you know to adapt to the new geopolitical alignments and the situation so therefore I do not think uh you know that this this situation is going to change much at this point in time the global prices I do believe we're entering a new era of Greater stability in the next uh 6 to 10 months cor thank thank you very much for taking time out for joining us on that story so as per what's coming out of Ministry of petroleum there's likely to be a cut in petrol prices in next coming few days that is if the global crude oil prices continue to remain lower uh but that's all we have in this show thank you very much for watching [Music] welcome back breaking news coming in on the show in a 10 standoff amid RJ cor Medical College case chief minister mam banerji of West Bengal is waiting now in an empty Auditorium as protesting doctors have refused to meet her that's the latest coming in as far as the Outreach by mamata Banner's concerned despite efforts from Chief secretary Manoj pant uh to mediate the ongoing dispute uh the doctors are demanding live streaming of their meeting with the chief minister until then they are protesting and have not met the chief minister there on your screens waiting in an empty Hall they've also questioned the lack of transparency in the meeting as the situation is escalating the chief minister uh remains seated she is awaiting a resolution but the agitating Junior doctors had reached the West Bengal State Secretariat nabana for the talks at about 5:25 p.m. today but but they are insisting on the demand for live telecast of the meeting in absence of which they have refused to meet the chief minister of best Bengal and the chief minister of course on your screens waiting there in an empty Hall my colleague Kabir joining us from The Newsroom Kabir the visuals of course coming in there not looking very good for MTA banerji right now yeah that's absolutely right Sha mind you this is the second day of the same meeting the seiz work protest continues yesterday this meeting was called on by the chief secretary Manoj pant he said only 15 members are going to be allowed and the doctor said n that's not going to happen we need 30 member delegation that's going to go to the nabana the Secretariat to meet the chief minister the chief minister needs to be present for this meeting and look at the situation that has prevailed at this point in time right now sha we're showing you those visuals uh on the screens the chief minister sitting there alone with some more administrative heads this meeting was supposed to take place at 5:00 p.m. the delegation of the junior resident doctors the protesting agitating doctors was already late moreover 32 people ended up coming there firstly uh the the Secretariat said only 15 people are going to be allowed later on the doctor said we're going to send a delegation of 30 people uh the the Secretariat paid heat they said okay send us the list of those 30 names now 32 people ended up coming there for this particular meeting but like you pointed out the actual bone of contention at this point in time still seems to be the live telecast of this meeting the Secretariat has already pointed it out that it's not going to be telecast live you can videograph this particular meeting it it can be used for reference later on but it's not going to be telecast live but the doctors they're not budging they're remaining very adamant and which is why the hall at this point in time remains empty the chief minister mind you is sitting there how will this Optics play out because the agitating doctors are already saying that we have dwelt away from the brutal rape that was actually taking place there now we're already talking about the CBI trying to find out Financial irregularities and the political slugfest around the arer Medical College rape and horror not talking about the case at hand the brutal rape that actually took place there how is this going to play out well we'll have to wait and find out at this point in time resident doctors 32 of them if I mean being precise outside the nabana inside the Secretariat in that Hall it's empty the chief minister sitting there all alone all right Kabir thank you very much for joining in with all those details there you have it on your screens chief minister office Bengal sitting there trying to meet the junior officers who are waiting outside in protest uh but that's all we have in the show thank you very much for watching [Music] give it to me pass pass pass pass we'll put new glasses in the windows and and they keep breaking it this is the fourth time you are playing football throughout the day will you win The World by playing football yes Uncle I will now conquer the world by playing football let's go to Germany world's largest football Talent hunt newsl Indian tigers and tigresses in association with dfb pocal Bundesliga BBB and India football Center train and play matches in Europe register now and fly to Germany Indian tigers and tigres.com.mx because ultimately expectations have to be met if you look at the political landscape is it really changing for women and what is the inability of the forces that dead bodies surface but not the living people who am I nobody can crack that mystery there is a certain expectation of me that's the only contradiction