Gunners Shot Clips :POLITICO MILITARY ASSESSMENT OF THE PAKISTAN ARMED FORCES IN GUARDING THE NATION

good evening and welcome to G sh G uh today I'm going to start this series on political military assessment of Pakistan's Armed Forces this will be a three-part series I'll do part one today uh fundamentally this is something I compiled and I spoke to some officers in the naval war College about 10 days back and I got a lot of positive feedback from them on this presentation and hence I am giving it to all of you I hope you enjoy it and I hope you'll have questions about it and we'll discuss it and at the outset I'd like to tell you that please put in a lot of questions because more than what I want to put across to you I would like to learn from the kind of questions you throw at me the more the questions the better it is and I'll keep my presentation short and it's virtually open house on poet pistan right now why am I doing this political military assessment uh normally you would say okay make an military assessment of Pakistan or a political assessment of Pakistan but why a political military assessment of the Armed Forces of Pakistan and that's very simple it's a Nob brainer everything about Pakistan is the Pakistan armed forces and in particular its Army if you analyze its Army you done 80% of the job if you analyze its Air Force also along with it you done another 15% of the job and the Navy is 5% so that's what I believe in and I think virtually everyone agrees with me that's the way it is and I do hope people from Pakistan see this and this will be a mirror for what they are going through okay let's go the first thing when we talk of Pakistan we should understand and we should be clear we are mainly discussing the Army today it is aim yesterday it was Baja day before yesterday was Kanani the day before the was you go back and you go to Zak and yayak and you go to at first character I'm forgetting his name but he started the whole thing right so you're discussing the Army the rest the Air Force and the Navy are the handmaidens B right the Navy go about it but the Air Force and the Navy are part of the army system and they part of the national system they hate India together along with the people and there is a fact I don't have to say have a look at all the comments which come go back to the video I did with amjad a mza and you see the comments which came on that you'll see that virtually the pakistanis hate India and the cherry on the hate cake is the Pakistan Army Air Force and the Navy and they hate India for many reasons and they hate India for all the defeats they had to undergo XY Z but we'll talk of it most importantly they are hand inlow with the Army in milking the state they have milk in the past 75 years they have consistently milk the state to leave it where it is you to understand this very clearly if Pakistan today doesn't have money to eat or do whatever it has to do it is because the Pakistan armed forces and it is my belief and I'm very clear about it that the Pakistan Army rather the Pakistan as a whole can be you know poor but the Pakistan armed forces are rich they have no problem of anything they have no problem of money they have no problem of economy it doesn't matter everyone in Pakistan can go to hell but the Pakistan Armed Forces will always be in their jut that's the thing right let's go you know my entire talk this three-part talk is based on this saying by stepen Gohan what did he say he said there are armies which guard their nation's borders there are armies which are concerned with protecting their own position in society and there are armies which defend a cause or an idea the Pakistan Army does all three so the three parts are first today we'll see guarding the nation borders and second part will be protecting their own position in society and the third part will be defending the cause or an idea it'll be interesting right for you to understand it over a three this I could have finished it in one day but it would have been very long for you to absorb what I would like you to do is put your questions we'll discuss it go back think over tomorrow the second part we'll have more come back with your new questions and we'll take it forward and I also pick some questions comments which come up in the interim period and the third part I'll probably do it a little later because maybe on the weekend the next weekend that is or the coming weekend okay so let's go to the first part guarding the nation borders how does Pakistan Army Fair in guarding the nation's borders this is something which we have to understand but before we do do that we have to understand the geostrategic location of Pakistan which keeps it always re relevant and hence the national borders are sacr for the Pakistan Army if you look at it you go back in history you saw the Greek the Persian and the turkic and Afghan Invaders coming through the muls right the hibra Lis all those people came from there abdal right they all came through this route and the indust which is you know they had to all cross Indus and some people stayed on the other side of the Indus some people came returning guys stayed on the other side of the indust so if you look at at the indust Valley the Indus Valley Civilization changed its Contour as these Invaders came and settled along the valley and then the silk root you know if you go back in time the silk rout came through uraia the kab pass north of the pamir one route went to the west through Iran turkey and one went North but one came through swung from North down into India because Pakistan was not there then it came through this this is a time of hang and fahan who came from here and went off from the sea route right and then you had the trans Asian trade routes which opened up from India towards the central Asia and West Asia sometime during the British days the British India went up to you know the present day borders of Iran and Afghanistan in fact beyond that and the trade routs you know went through this again this land of Pakistan was important today the maritime trade slocks are have become important Pakistan per se for the trade routs and all that is no more important it's only important for India to connect with Central Asia or Iran or Russia nor South Transit Corridor and all that but the location of Pakistan is important gu orara Karachi you control this coast and PNE these you know use these control this course you control the straight of hormos and you have a reach to the babble Mand the construction of Tears that's what Babble mandab is right or the Horn of Africa now this importance has come up now in a big way and with this India faces a new Western Front the Western Front which the traditional Western Front which comprises Pakistan has always been there but the new new Maritime slocks which we're talking of is also now part of the new Western Front to which we have to be alive more importantly Pakistan is alive about this that's the important point the next point when you talk of guarding the nation's borders Pakistan Army guarding the nation's borders is this Pakistan was born with two front situation right it had always a hostile India in the East and a hostile Afghanistan in the West never did this ever go away but what did the pakistanis do the Pakistani right from jna look at it from jna or BTO or you know everyone they repurposed the pon nationalism from the west and gave them an outlet like a pressure cooker and sent them to Kashmir and to the east to India to engage Us in hybrid Wars they instigated hybrid Wars in Kashmir and Punjab right from 1947 till date it country so their ability to guard their border comes from the fact that a threat in on one side was converted into an offensive weapon and pushed it onto the threat on the other side and in this they have been the Masters and we'll talk of it later in this presentation in the series when East Pakistan was there their concept of guarding East Pakistan today's Bangladesh was to defend East Pakistan by aggression in West Pakistan and by doing so you know they always felt that they will be able to defend you know East Pakistan of course it failed in Bangladesh war after that now after the war of course we all know this business of strategic depth they kept repurposing people from the West to the east they sought strategic depth in Afghanistan and failed they failed they still seek it and that is why they installed the Taliban but as they say once you put a chap in power he will not relinquish it now they put the Taliban in power Against All Odds backstabbing the Americans the Taliban will not give space to Pakistan Hereafter it doesn't matter who comes in power in Afghanistan they will not give that strategic depth which Pakistan has been seeking from 7172 right now the situation has mofed where there's permanent hostility to Afghanistan and India both borders are now unstable we all know that and on Seventh I'm going to invite General KJ Singh of Earth while Western Army commander and he will talk about the exploding fault lines in Pakistan this is not going to change if anything the Western border the Western border along the Duran line is only going to go from bad to worse then there's this constant fear which Pakistan has to take into its calculus when it has to guard its borders the nation's borders that is collusion between India and Afghanistan in fact it is mortally scared of it the two front situation with Pakistan terrifies it this is their worst case situation in fact a case which is even worse is a three- front situation in in uh you know involving Iran and that almost came about sometime back but today we all know that it is not only a twoof front situation with Afghanistan and India but there is a three front situation the third front is within CPC baluchistan is the third front and Iran has not vanished and as Pakistan weakens and it will weaken it will always seek outside alliances because it can't defend the Army can't defend the nation with what it has so it will always seek alliances in the early stages it was Britain after all it was the Great Britain and those goras who made this state this mapen state and then it went into the arms of USA and thereafter when it found that you know after the Afghan war or rather the Russian invasion of Afghanistan and once the mujahidin came and breakup of Soviet Russia USA walked away from this area and they went into the arms of the Saudis and actually that's the time when Pakistan became radicalized and Jihad grew the time of Z USA came back after 911 but the Saudis and the UAE and the radical element never went out and then of course 2012 1012 once Zin ping G came the B came the CPC came and now China has a permanent present here what do you see today as USA got tired of Pakistan and UAE and Saudi Arabia want to you know diversify and no more support radicalism like they used to Once Upon a Time a new player has come into the PO turkey and we'll talk of it today so this is their twoof front situation which keeps morphing you know the players in this whole story keep morphing but the situation is now permanent the second part is because of all those arrows and connectivities which I showed Pakistan remains relevant to all these players right if I go back after all this is still relevant to China for the CP okay this is still relevant for the USA Afghanistan so that you know this roots are controlled so that their Homeland is secure okay now what is the character of the Armed Forces of Pakistan we have to understand the US Navy is a maritime Force the UK Navy was a maritime Force China is a continental Force we had a continental orientation now we changing to some extent what is the character of the Pakistan Armed Forces how do they guard their borders they began with a continental Outlook and they remain so they remain so because the Army rules Supreme there's no other Force other than the Army right who will uh have to say what how the Pakistan Army has to behave right that is something fundamental it will not change their complete Outlook is Continental to some extent there a marginal change like I said they started getting aware of their maritime right of their Maritime importance right one second thing which we need to understand and probably appreciate as Indians is the Pakistan Army Navy and Air Force are fully professional let's not have any doubts about it if you ask me between the Pakistan armed forces and in the pla whom would you prefer to fight I would prefer to fight the pla not the Pakistan Army it's a tough pose on that we should not have a doubt okay now if I talk of the Navy it's always been a fledgling pose not withstanding the fact it had a submarine in 71 gazi got stuck uh you know got it sank off the vsac coast you it was doing all sorts of nonsense out there or trying to do uh but it not a great uh Navy at that time our Navy completely dominated Pakistan whether it was Dhaka or bombing of Karachi and the Navy was virtually zero but that is changing it is changing because of China China wants G as its base we all know that I'm not talking anything new but more importantly China is proding USA so that it can piggyback on USA in the new role in the north Arabian Sea at this point pakist china is lying low because US forces are active there Indian Navy is active this side of the Red Sea of the Somalian Coast right they are keep keeping quiet but when the situation changes Pakistan and China will be active here and hence their Nations borders will increase their Maritime borders will increase this is a given and we have to contend with it now the Air Force you know and as navy evolves it can evolve but my own sense is that the Army will always control it in many ways the Air Force and the Navy are subordinate to the Army there no doubt but the a force actually has been a check on the Pakistan Army it has been a check if you go into their history if you go into the war histories battle histories you'll see that the Air Force has not allowed the Pakistani army generals to do what it they want now it's reain in their adventurism and it has also kept its identity with the from the Army and in doing so it has elevated itself in the eyes of the nation right but it has remained tactical to the extent that the Pakistan Army has not allowed to make it become strategic of course the fact is that it doesn't have the money to become strategic it doesn't have the economic backing to be strategic equally the Pakistan Navy Army will not allowed the Pakistan Air Force to become strategic money and power they will never allow the Air Force to become too good in turn not having a great Air Force shackles the Pakistan Army at times like in kgill or in 1965 right the way the a force has resisted the Army Adventures has convinced the a click in Pakistan Army to go it alone if you see read nazim Z's book Caril to the CP this comes out very clearly and if you read Tarik rahman's book he also talks of this he talks both of them in some manner say that the Pakistan Air Force didn't allow the Army to do what it wants part of the reason is that the Pakistan Army has always had hairbrained ideas some of them have been succeeded like in the mandros OR for that matter in the caral intrusions but limited that's why like I said it says post click gang based group think to undertake risky Adventures has been a feature of the Pakistan Army which is an outflow of their relationship with the Pakistan Air Force but all in all the Pakistan Army Air Force and not not the Navy the Navy has not yet been really blooded has been able to surprise its enemies surprise is a constant factor which we will have to deal with their ability to be aggressive and to throw up a surprise on the opponent you should never forget for those of you who are of today generation just take your mind back Iran did a missile attack in Pakistan recently Next Day Air Force and the missiles attacked back balakot happened our strike into balakot or gabat toop jabat toop happened and very next day day Swift rort G right so aggression and surprise and Carill mandala Crossing 65 when they sent Raiders in it's only in 71 they couldn't really um you know create surprise but in all other operations surprise is a major factor look they even surprised the Americans okay the Americans knew that the pakistanis will backstab them but at every turn for 20 years the Americans get getting surprised okay the next thing is as part of their character you know Pakistan has lost all wars so their repeated losses have convinced the generals to throw caution to the winds and become aggressive and create that surprise so aggression and surprise okay that's what I said initial aggression and surprise throughout their history has been and immediate retaliation is their Moto but they are a first half Armed Force I repeat the Pakistan armed forces are a first half Armed Force why you know in every cricket match or in every hockey match or football match you know the aggressive team always scores first but the more resilient team absor jobs that equalizes and goes on for victory if you see in history most autocracies and dictatorships have had first half victories including adol Hitler or for that matter Iran Iraq against Iran Saddam Hussein resilient system civilizational Nations democracies have second half victories it's a different thing USA has never had a victory they declare a victory but if you go back in time up to the second world war you'll see this feature and today you see this picture very clearly in Pakistan so when you look at them guarding the nation's borders these factors have to be put into place and then there's something which I think stepen Kohan or and no put it if they said Pakistan armed forces are the most professional Armed Forces never to have one a war Pakistan has lost every war it has fought and it is conscious of this and this plays on the psychology of the Armed Forces and this is a very important factor in guarding the nation the mental makeup of guarding the nation remember as far as the Army is concerned Pakistan can lose but the Pakistan Armed Forces cannot ever lose they are always Victorious the Army is Victorious with every war which they have lost the armed forces have returned stronger and More in command this is a strange Dimension which we need to understand territorial Integrity is of no value to them anymore it is the power structure which is important so we when we talk of it in the third part I'll explain this second and third part so this is my conviction Pakistan armed forces can never be defeated by War because territorial Integrity of Pakistan has only little value already the territorial Integrity of Pakistan has been rudely Disturbed in the west it's a matter of time it's going to get Disturbed in the East and let me tell you if you think I'm a fool to these days examine the fact that is Pakistan disintegrating it is because the conditions are such and that is why I'm dis uh discussing Pakistan because if you go back one year back Gunner shot I stop discussing Pakistan I'm getting back because the conditions are such that we have to put a finger on the pulse my conviction is if we cannot defeat the Pakistan State and the Armed Forces politically do not give them battle that's what I written they need to be defeated politically like we did in article 370 when article 370 was you put in place suddenly AR the Armed Forces of Pakistan did nothing they could could just ring their hand and sit on a sideline they just the sideline that's the end of the story they had no way to go because they were militarily not defeated yeah everyone has spoken oh we'll take revenge on India this that we'll not talk to India unless you go back to the pre August F 2019 status India will never go back they also know that they'll never talk they also know that we are not interested in talking they're not B but if we had done anything militarily we would have had a problem because Pakistan Army would have come back stronger so if tomorrow you want to defeat the Pakistan Army and then the Pakistan State and change the go borders you have to look at the political defeat of Pakistan Army that is a Crux which we have to face okay now let me look at the military construct of the Pakistan Armed Forces as it guards the nation I I've given you the psychological construct and the conceptual construct of the Armed Forces now this graph is important so I'll highlight it have a look at it okay if you look at this this is the Pakistan imports from 2 to 2023 recently I had attended a a major presentation in the western command there the previous adant general of the Indian army General har Gupta he had shown this presentation I was quite impressed by it and that's how I've taken it and I'm taken the liberty of showing it to you if you look at it till about 20134 you see Pakistan's Imports Rising okay and lot of imports from you know USA but after that the imports from USA have reduced and there's increased dependence on China and there's a new player on the horizon and that or a new player is turkey so it needs examination why Turkey right we do that in the meanwhile if you plot the graphs out if you see the blue line and the dark green line are all going up that's China and others are mostly turkey you see the line of United States France and United Kingdom which are brown shades of brown are all flattening out for the past 25 years they're slowly flattening out and what they have is Legacy equipment which they have to continue to maintain there no more new equipment coming from you know these countries and when you look at the park turkey cooperation you see a major you know uh trajectory coming out but here again till about 201819 there is a trajectory and thereafter the trajectory is different now let me explain this this is something which one has to understand till I mean turkey is a nto member right it has most of nto equipment already so if you see in the early stages the relationship between turkey and Pakistan was Guided by NATO so if NATO or rather USA couldn't give anything direct to us Pakistan it was rooted through turkey assistance maintenance all that upgrades you see in 2009 F16 upgrade went through turkey and that couldn't have happened without the US nod it till this has a lesson that look you can depend on USA that much and no more but you come down to 2018 1920 and all that has stopped today the relationship is turkey to Pakistan Sans USA so this is a relationship which we have to monitor I mean the relationship with China is a given it will not change for the simple reason the West is no more giving them any technology or any arms and ammunition and they have to go to China and there's no doubt and China has come here with you know I mean Open Arms we all know that That's History CPC this that all that and China needs Pakistan and guad as a base for its Indian Ocean amb s so all this talk of recalling loans debt trap selling off is all nonsense China will never do that China will keep riding on Pakistan and they'll keep Pakistan fit to water of India and to project power in North Arabian C and it also gives them a base to get into the West Stan Politics the power equations there remember this now I'm going contract what many people talk of okay now let's look at the service wise inventory if you look at the service wise inventory what you'll see is that in the air force today China is the first what of the total platforms Pakistan has 45% are from USA sorry China and modern attack Fleet 65% is from China so there's an increasing dependence on China the aircrafts and the UC uks and Munitions and ew equipment I've listed out all the new ones are largely Chinese and then you look at the Navy the same story repeats itself okay all of the total displacement tonnage maximum is China China rules whether it's in uh missile you know ship missile cells or combatant ship displacement everything it is China which is almost 50% of Pakistan Navy and today even they're getting submarines and hancor class uh submarines and frigates from China so virtually Pakistan Navy in Du course will become a miniature plan if I may say so as far as the Army is concerned same thing same story you look at the China circles tanks 8 68% are Chinese right artillery 51% are Chinese anti-aircraft artillery ID 74% alzar alal the armor Hayer that's vt4 they now buying VT fors the same vt4 which China deployed in eastern ladak look at the artillery their sh15 is a truck mounted 155 mm gun they have taken the 100 which is equalent to this merge and I can go on and on everything is virtually today Chinese but their issue is there is an issue in this which we have to understand sustenance will be an issue two reasons one the Chinese equipment is defective we know that I mean everyone knows the Chinese equipment is is something quite unreliable you can't rely on the Chinese second Pakistan has been supplying Ukraine with ammunition now it has started with Bangladesh also so resultantly will it have enough or for its own does it have that kind of production capability this the state of Pakistan is so bad that it needs money and it's a uh you know exported so what does it lead us to conclude if it doesn't have sustenance which it doesn't have then will it give us battle it'll avoid battle it'll do something but avoid battle because it can't sustain itself the issue will be when the Russia Ukraine war finishes when it finishes supplying ammunition to Bangladesh towards the end of the year and that capacity will be there will it be able to build up for itself and build sustenance that is something we have to examine based on it economic outcomes but then as I will say later in the next part economic outcomes don't matter so there's a danger in this we have to be alive we might think that Pakistan Army doesn't have the sustenance but it might have and this is something which we have to the armed forces have to sit and do their diligence based on uh proper inputs intelligence inputs and force and you know Focus their Intelligence on these issues sitting here with a computer and on the internet I don't think I'll be able to do it but organizationally we'll have to do this and then of course there missiles these are all you know the Chinese missiles complete initially it was Korean North Korean uh technology through reparation now it is from China and of course they have developed their own it's there and they'll keep threatening us with it and this is an important component of guarding its National orders and it'll never go away they'll always keep threatening us with the missiles and the nuclear technology the nuclear technology is or the as every um Third Rate Pakistani also says so they use this atomy uh you know threat with their missiles and always seek to Bo guard their borders with this capability right and if this is a summary of their fire power nutrition again I my thanks to General har Gupta because all these slides were his I've just taken it and shown it I I like the way he put it in fact full kudos to him right what all they have everything what we need to do with this is see how can they sustain this there a reasonably well equipped force and they have gone on the premise that they'll never fight an allout war with India they've gone with the premise that war will be short if they threatened if their red lines are crossed they'll use the nuclear option that's their thinking the way to defeat them again I repeat is not militarily the way to defeat them is politically so whatever we do it has to be political first if the military is to be used as part of a political process so be it but the defeat has to be political okay what is is a technological capability I mean we have to understand this it's got a weak technology base because why am I talking of Technology because today Wars are Guided by technology technology is the driving force of most of the wars whether it's in between Israel and Hamas or G Ukraine and Russia or in the South China Sea where there any day war can break out and we will talk about it s and Raj Naran on Fifth it's got a big technical base it'll never turn over but they'll offset it by alliances and imports they will do it we have to understand that it has a rentier philosophy which will never go they will provide their Armed Forces services for technology and equipment so their technology and Equipment will come by providing Services these Services would could be provided to USA would be provided to China I wouldn't be surprised if they start giving services to Russia one of these days to get technology and equipment is something which we have to diplomatically take a look in the forseable future turkey and China will be their main technology enablers possibly Russia because Russia will now do anything it wants and with the rise of Tricks which is being spoken of that is China Russia Iran and Korea don't forget somewhere there Pakistan exists and this over the past 40 odd minutes I have outlined to you how the Pakistan Army will guard the nation's Frontiers and borders why I call it Frontier because the Afghanistan is a frontier virtually the looc is a frontier it's no it's not a border I want to highlight a few challenges Pakistan will continue to have its economic challenges the reliability of Chinese equipment in an actual fight will always remain questionable and because there is some credible information that during the operation Swift rot when they fired into the Nera area they used f-16s and they didn't use JF SS the jf7 were kept on the periphery they will never get P from anyone the technical technology base will remain weak and they will only get some partial to their industrial robustness will be weak which we know they have none virtually uh the private public partnership will no go nowhere their geopolitical challenges will remain and these are the macro challenges which Pakistan Armed Forces will have to confront as part of guarding their nation's Frontiers with this I come to the end of part one of this assessment that is my political military assessment of the Pakistan Armed Forces tomorrow we'll talk of part two protecting their own position in society how does the Pakistan Armed Forces protect their own position in society very interesting join me tomorrow and we'll take it up from there right