so yes for the record my pick is morab although I do think this is an extremely close fight however I made a video where I was talking about the ways that sha Elly could win so it's only fair I make a video describing the ways that morab will win or should I just say the way the way that morab wins is pretty obvious he goes out there he just relentlessly shoots takedowns he throws an insane amount of volume and just overwhelms om Ali with this pace and pressure that's really his only path to Victory I only see him winning by decision I don't see him winning by submission you could put that as one out of a million chance knockout it's not going to happen unless Ali just completely gases out and he's just eating punches and the referee stops it from some sort of grounded position although amal's not really knocked out I think that's extremely unlikely though if if going to win I'd say 90 90% chance we're going to see a decision it could be a close decision or it could be a very dominant decision really just depends on both these Fighters performance on the night so how is morab going to win first of all I think I need to talk about how good of a wrestler morab is so first of all Ali his wrestling is really not that it's not amazing it it's not like he has bad takedown defense he has good takedown defense and his grappling is respectable but let's not pretend like he's an elite Grappler so when Ali fought P Yan here are the stats Yan attempted 13 takedowns and Jan usually never wrestles in his fights although Yan is a very good wrestler Jan is a good wrestler but we'll see that morab is clearly on a different level but anyways Yan shot 13 takedowns he got six of those and he got five minutes of control time okay so and Yan is as good as Jan is good wrestling but Jan is actually the one who's not really known for controlling people just go to this website UFC stats.com click on his name and just go through his fights and see how much control time he racks up and he racked up five minutes of control time against sha Elly so I think that's not bad and Jan even though he did have the takedown threat I would still consider Jan and really styles do play into it but he's on the same general level as Shan ell when it comes to striking when it comes to the technicality although I'd say sha ell has a lot better offense and better counter striking however it's not like Yan is a bad Striker he's extremely good at making reads and he couldn't put Mor Rob's lights out as I said Yan's also a very technical fighter very smart fighter good at recognizing patterns and good at finding openings especially in the later rounds but the problem with morab is he's just like an a lanch where he just builds momentum and his Pace was too much for even a skilled Striker like Yan To Figure him out and time some sort of Power Shot he didn't Rock morab a single time or even land any big shots morab just completely steamrolled him and Yan has much better wrestling than Ali to fall back on Yan was suffering the majority of takedowns from morat but it's it didn't really matter at the end you could definitely see he wilted from all the pressure right that's the one we just went over actually okay Yan and then go to Rob fish Philly I don't know how to say his name okay anyways so Yan 105 takedowns against Mor Rob and mor Rob 22% takedowns against Yan but it's it's because he's not fully committing to every single takedown he is spamming a lot of takedown some of them are garbage but it also goes to show how much of a good Grappler Yan is anyways Mor still totally and look that's still six minutes of control time I know it's six minutes over 25 minute rounds but apart from Sterling who is the best back taker in his division no no question about it the best Jiu-Jitsu at 135 when he was there and his specialty was really taking people's backs and when he took people's backs even Henry zudo an Olympic gold medalist in wrestling everyone knows zudo couldn't get out of his body triangle so anyways Rob he just completely overwhelmed even a good wrestler like Yan got taken down 11 times and I'm just saying if morab can control Yan for six minutes what's he GNA do to om Ali who has much his grappling is really not comparable to Yan Yan has significantly better grappling than noal just look at the stats look at the stats and compare them and it's night and day and then you look at the caliber of opponents they faced and compare their success in the grappling that's all I'm going to say I could make this video like 30 minutes but doesn't have to be that long so it's pretty easy to establish that Rob is a much better Grappler than Ali he is going to get the takedowns that's an inevitability he's going to get multiple takedowns assuming he doesn't get knocked down early and okay maybe he doesn't get six minutes how well will he do against om Al maybe he could even double that 12 minutes even like eight minutes and in between that there's going to be scrambles Rob's going to be even if Mor couldn't take down Elli Against the Cage what is he going to do what did he against what did he do against Jose Aldo right he literally just held him against the cage and need his thigh and that's what he's done to people he can't take down Against the Cage he could certainly do that to a m he could just hold him down wear on him or not hold him down but hold him Against the Cage wear on him he's not in danger of getting knocked out and the energy he's using the energy om Ali is going to expend trying to escape the shots he's going to eat from Mor Rob yeah they're not going to knock his lights out but it's still going to drain the gas tank so Mor doesn't even have to take down Ali he can really just force himself into clinch range throw some throw some strikes immediately shoot just every scramble they get into every time Elli defends a Tak down morab just seems to have infinite cardio where Shan Elli definitely has he has good cardio but it's it's not incredible it's not fantastic cardio but he has very good cardio but anyways every one of these scrambles the longer the fight goes the longer M's grinding on him just throwing all this volume making Ali Circle because om Al is going to look to want a counter- strike with morab I think I think he's going to want to pull him into a counter similar to what he did with Sterling and try to use his footwork to avoid the takedowns cuz he definitely doesn't want to be running into morab cuz we know what Mor Rob's going to do he's just going to duck on underneath and shoot a Tak down shoot a Tak down as soon as they're in range so why would Al want to come to him Ali would want to exploit Mor Rob's really questionable defense at times and the fact that he can overextend and get really sloppy or maybe Elli will pressure morab well we'll see what happens because like if Ali pressures morab and mor Rob's on the back foot it also makes shooting Tech Downs harder at the same time but yeah just the more activity that's going on it's always going to benefit Mor Rob and if especially if you're a striker you can gas out so easily from defending so many takedowns and wrestling so much and doing all of that so it it's real and obviously I've never been in any single fights but I have done Jiu-Jitsu I've done wrestling and I can say when you're tired all your Technique can go out the window at times when you're completely gassed out and there's a guy that just he's always shooting takedowns and even when you defend the takedown he's still going after it and you're scrambling and you're trying to sink your hips back and you're trying to do all these things get back up it's your your mind is going to think something and you're going to want to do a certain technique you just don't have the energy to do it so we could see om Ali really really Wilt in the later rounds because as I said he's a striker that no one is gonna make Om Ali scramble as much as Mor Rob okay let's say Sterling took down Ali he's just going to take his back morab he's going to shoot Al's GNA partially defend it morab is going to keep shooting keep shooting keep shooting keep shooting keep getting into all these scrambles and that's going to burn a lot of energy as opposed to if he just took down om Ali and just sat in his full guard so that's that's the Dilemma that Al has and yeah people say doesn't have the best control but first of all look at the when Ali wasn't fighting guys who are Elite Grapplers he was actually accumulating a lot of control time so okay let's just click on this guy 11 minutes control time let's click on this guy and I know these guys aren't comparable to ell but I'm just saying rob doesn't have terrible control people are acting like he can't control anyone it's because he's fighting the best Grapplers in the division eight minutes control for Ali Sor sorry Al uh against this guy Brad Katona who choked out Bryce Mitchell ages ago though all right Casey Kenny five minutes control time I that's still a really good portion of the fight nine minutes control time so I'm not saying he's going to get this much control time against om Ali but as I said Yan is a much better Grappler than om Ali especially in the wrestling which is what's going to matter Jiu-Jitsu is less important because is om Al going to submit Mor Rob I think it's extremely unlikely unless he just Rams headed into a guillotine but wrestling is what's going to matter cuz that's what allows you to change position that's what allows you to go from standing to on the ground so yeah and yeah Al's defensive wrestling it's good but it's not good enough to stuff like 80 90% of Mor Rob's takedowns I think morab will get like even morab doesn't even need get that much takedown it's really just the activity and also in the Striking yes morab is wild and open but when morab is throwing so much volume and he just doesn't get tired also he has decent kicks and it's not like he's just going to run into a counter shot and get knocked out morab is not a terrible Striker actually what's crazy is so wev even though he has an insane takeown threat when makev out strikes guys like Ola and porier some people are saying is one of the best strikers in the UFC just ignoring the fact that he has a takedown threat I mean so is khib a better Striker than McGregor because he knocked down Connor and was out striking him no no one would say that it's ridiculous but as I said takedown threat but when Mor Rob out strikes one of the best strikers in the UFC period pan when morab out strikes him on the feet by an enormous margin let's see distance yeah distance and I'm talking about ground strikes these are distant strikes Rob totally schools Yan and out out strikes him and does he even got Yan's eye to swell up no one is talking about Yan or no one is talking about morab as an elite Striker even though he did this to Jan it's because oh now everyone understands that there's a takedown threat I think that's something that also needs to be acknowledged when someone does have a takedown threat and with morab yes he doesn't have it's not like he has the control of Sterling where he's just gonna take someone down take their back and then Coast the round but or he has yeah it's not like he has Elite control Elite top control or Elite submissions or it's like oh man if this guy gets on top of you it's finished it's over like he's either going to Coast the round or you're just G to get finished Rob doesn't exactly have that threat but still any good wrestler you don't want to let them take you down because I mean getting back up is going to take a lot more energy than just simply straight up defending the takedown I think everyone understands this and every time Rob throws something as soon as omali responds with the counter shot the thing is Rob mixes in his strikes and his takedown so well that's why Yan couldn't get a read on him he's just going to throw super fast throw a lot of volume and then just immediately grab a single leg and he's immediately working the wrestling and if Ali commits to a counter he's is just going to be caught off guard and Rob's going to run right through his counter and get a taked down and Ali the thing people don't understand about om Ali is that Ali doesn't have insane KO power the reason why he always knocks people out even with one punch it's because of his precision and timing omali definitely has power but it's not like pound-for-pound ilot to Poria power it's just that he's so precise but the thing is even if Ali Clips morab I don't think he's going to knock him out with one punch because I mean you look at the Marlin maras fight and Marlin maras is incredibly powerful and he's just an insane finisher in the first round insane power insane insane explosivity and mor was eating bombs from him and he didn't go out he just kept going kept going and he eventually recovered I mean Mor Rob is just he's so difficult to finish there's a reason why he's never been knocked out so I think his recovery his recoverability is going to be insane even if ell Clips him and knocks him down I think he'll be able to recover and survive in most instances and then it's just back to the you can really compare him to a washing machine was like Shao M's a load he's just getting thrown in the washing machine okay he manages to get out back in the washing machine and definitely as I said in the fourth and fifth rounds that's where it would start to wear on Valley and that's where he'll really fade and where morab was struggling to get takedowns in the beginning now they're going to come so much easier and if it does reach that point fifth round Mor's just going to Coast I think he's going to run right through Ali if it does if the fight does go on that long but anyways I think the everyone kind of understands the path to Mor's victory is do the wrestling and by using his cardio using his pace and definitely mixing in strikes with takedowns especially using a lot of reactive takedowns every time Ali hits him every time Ali tries to close distance and get his hands on him or by get his hands on him I mean throw punches even Rob should look to catch the kicks of Al just don't be too predictable and just always shoot reactive takedowns always be Ono Mal don't if M like he did to Jan if M Smothers om Ali doesn't give him time doesn't give him distance to think about think about what to do make reads just put himself in position for a counter shot if it's just constant pressure constant in his face that's going to disrupt a striker like om Ali A lot because I think om Ali does a lot better when it's a more Technical and slow paced fight that's when om Ali really excels when it's more of a dog fight and the takedowns are mixed in I think that's not where om Ali would be at his best omali is at his best when it's they're fighting in distance it's very clean it's very technical because someone as smart as Al in the Striking ra striking realm that's what I meant to say yeah he he's going to figure out the distance he's going to know what angle to attack what strike to use and he's going to pick up on his opponent's Tendencies if his opponent is just bomb rushing him and okay now he's timing a counter nope now he's on his legs it's going to be so much more difficult which is evidenced by what morab did to Yan Yan couldn't make those reads he couldn't make the proper adjustments and he just got washed he literally got 5045 no one's done that to Yan Yan went to a split decision with om Ali I'm not saying Ali is gonna get 5045 by Yan but no no that's definitely not going to happen it's not going to be that easy om Al will have moment where he hurts morab I I can even see morab getting dropped or rocked really badly within the first two rounds maybe even two or three times he's going to get dropped but as I said it's just his recoverability he's going to recover so fast and he's never been knocked out for a reason so that's that's what morab has to do to win even when morab does take down om Ali he's probably not going to be able to hold omali down for the majority of the fight he will acrew a lot of control time but he just really has to make omali work for the takedowns and I think that's what he will do at the same time just Pepper omali with strikes as he's getting up just to give him something to think about that's what he also did to Jan because I think Ali and Yan they'll also get to a they'll get to a point where they're so focused on the wrestling they'll just straight up ignore the Striking or they'll underestimate the Striking and if Mar lands enough punches on Al's face it can cause superficial damage it can cause swelling and then when's focused on that that's when Mor Rob's going to focus on the takedowns what I mean is okay omal is gonna eat a bunch of shots he's gonna think okay now this guy's this guy striking isn't a joke I actually have to be concerned about the Striking and then Rob's gonna throw some s the strike and then immediately shoot for a takedown so at first what I see happening isal is just going to be hyper focused on the wrestling of then it's going to reach a point where Rob's Landing more strikes okay I have to think more about the Striking and then it's a dual threat so they both make each other more dangerous if that makes sense because certainly I think omal is going to go into this fight believing that and I believe it too but believing that morab there's no chance in hell he's going to knock him out I also believe that still doesn't mean you're Invincible still doesn't mean the punches are going to hurt or cause damage so anyways Ali could snipe him could knock him out the finishing potential definitely goes to Ali however yeah that cardio morab is no joke no joke no one even comes close to his cardio and every round that Mor Rob survives it's going to build more momentum and more momentum the fight goes the fight swings more in his favor and when it's a five round fight just I feel that cardio will prevail