Steals & Busts in Rounds 1-4 (Top-50) of Your Fantasy Basketball Draft │ Yahoo 9-Categories

[Music] [Music] [Music] hey what's happening everybody Welcome to old man squad fantasy basketball I am your host Dan bpis and today we are doing the Steals and busts in each round of the Yahoo draft board this is always a crowd Pleasers uh pioneered on the that's not true that's make something up but uh I remember when my buddy Alan sroi did this show um on the sports ethos YouTube page something like four years ago and he just crushed it and I tried to redo it in some like poor fact simile last year and I totally dinked it because he did like the first 10 Rounds all in one show and I broke it up into one round on One show second round on the next show and that just it didn't have the same sting So today we're going to go as far as we can go we're going to do a a chunk of rounds Steals and bus in a chunk of rounds we'll see how far it takes us I don't think I'm going to go that deep because once you get past about the or sixth round the the pre- ranks and adps don't really matter anymore guys aren't going really all that close to where they're pre-ranked everybody's just taking whoever they want at that point so we'll start at the top and we'll go from there I'm Dan bpis you can follow me on Twitter Dan besp you can all also follow our Network feed old man squad on social media it'll follow you back so that's a good one that's on the screen for those watching on YouTube old man squad please like if you're watching on YouTube stop for a moment and hit that thumbs up button and no matter how you're taking in the content please take a second to hit that subscribe button that's a big one for a subscribe and a five star review would really be super chill of you think about it think about it if nothing else okay so showing it on the board right now uh you know the see what makes the most sense here in terms of how I'm displaying this stuff uh this is the Yahoo pre-rank board that everybody can see and what I'll do is I'm going to read off 12 names we we'll treat it like a 12 teamer and then we're just going to talk about the guys that I think are Steals and or busts in each round and we'll move through it piece by piece from there so first round the first round is Victor wanyama Nia yic LCA donic Shay gilis Alexander Giannis and DMO Tyrese halberton Anthony Davis Jason Tatum Joel embiid Anthony Edwards Trey young and Dam montis sabonis I will be so the first round is a tough one because who's a steal in the first round is there even such a thing like obviously you want wemi or joic at the top of the board obviously you want Luca at three Shay's a very safe fourth pick Giannis is an unfair player to list as a bust because he's a punt free throw guy you're sort of cheating the system there so I'm basically eliminating the top five from the board in the first round so 6 7 8 9 10 11 and 12 are the names that we're even considering for this discussion and of those players I believe that you really only have maybe one possibly two steals in the first round and those players are Anthony Davis who I actually think believe it or not is a first round steel and Joel embiid who everyone's going to kill me for that one this is like the worst hot take on planet Earth because this one could totally blow up in our faces but Anthony Davis last year was number four on a per game basis he actually showed some pretty good durability playing in 76 out of the Lakers 82 ball games and he was consistently great all season long I also think that there's a real chance that sheay gilis Alexander takes a small step back season over season and if Anthony Davis keeps his number somewhat similar with wemi kind of jumping up and that would allow ad to perhaps remain as the number four per game guy because he had a pretty good window above himself over Luca donic in nine category leagues it's hard to really classify Anthony Davis as a steel if only because if you're getting him at seven and he finishes at 4 how much value are you really able to squeeze out of that lemon or fruit nectar whatever you want to go with he's not a lemon he's great uh it's kind of impossible he's number three totals last year like you're not going to beat your ADP by more than four or five slots of anybody being drafted in the first round for the most part but I think Anthony Davis is one of the few guys in the first round that has a shot to beat his pre-rank by a small handful and at the top of the board that actually does matter and amazingly the other name I'm going to put on this list is Joel embiid and everyone's going to kill me for this but the longer I stare at the board the more I keep thinking I have to go down this path if he falls to me at pick nine which is where he's going because the other guys going at pick nine have no chance of being anywhere near Joel embiid on a per game basis they just don't kawh Leonard has a better shot to get near Joel embiid on a perame basis than anybody that people are considering in the first round last year guys being drafted in the first round that finished there these of these players Kevin Durant was 11th halberton was 10th everybody else you see before you finished outside the first round in nine category leagues on a per game basis we did a show uh yesterday actually on Sunday breaking down the 76ers and what we determined was basically that if Joel embiid Only misses 20 games this year he beats his ADP that's how easy it will be for a top three guy missing games that's the games like that's is all he would have to do a good example of this and but not a great not a perfect one is Anthony Davis last year he was number four on a per game basis but he missed 26 ball games and he was still number 17 by totals so despite all of that messy mess mess and Anthony Davis missing 26 games because he was number four per game which mind you was pretty far off of what Joel embiid was doing this last year there's there's a good jump between four and one or two 56 games got him to the middle of the second round if Joel embiid plays 56 games this coming year he's probably an early second round guy or like kind of near the turn so we're really talking about a dude that if he gets to 60 and yes my voice cracked I got it so excited if he gets to 60 he probably beats his 80P if he gets to to mid-60s he smashes his ADP he's probably not getting any higher than that 65 66 is probably the absolute maximum but if Joel embiid rolls at a top three per game clip and plays in 66 ball games he's probably a top seven totals guy and that makes him a win and not many of these other guys can claim that kind of ability to call him a steel is idiotic but it's the terminology we decided we needed to use for today's podcast so it's what I'm rolling with and frankly again these other guys halberton I don't think okay so let's look at the other side of the coin now if I don't think these guys are steals do I think they're busts I don't think halberton is a bust I think he's not my favorite choice at this juncture he is uh kind of an interesting player to build on on head-to-head the busts Jason Tatum probably not a bust he's going to probably finish like around 12 that's fine and he's generally relatively durable Trey young is a build guy much like janisan DMO you sort of treat him as a punt free throw player young you kind of just treat him as a punt field goal guy but the other guys in there you can't treat him as anything deonis sabonis and Anthony Edwards these are in my opinion your possible busts in the first round Anthony Edwards is almost like the guarantee of them he was number 40 last year the only reason he was anywhere near the top anything was because he was extraordinarily durable 39 did I get the per the per game rank wrong matter hair splitting he was number 20 by totals because he played in 79 out of 82 ball games I don't want a first round pick that has to play in all 82 games to even sniff the edge of the first round Anthony Edwards very much your bust of the first round and then Damas sabonis is kind of somewhere in the middle because he actually finished at number 12 last year by totals but he got there because he played in all 82 basketball games he was number 29 sabonis was on a per game basis and yes some of that was the 3.3 turnovers but like the other first round guys are relatively high in turnovers as well the issue with sabonis was doesn't shoot free throws well doesn't H any three-pointers has high turnovers it's hard damn near impossible frankly to be in the first round on a per game basis when you're a significant negative in three categories in fact there wasn't one the only other first round guys that were negatives like Beyond just a small one would be like Luca and turnovers is one big one wemi turnovers was kind of the one big one Anthony Davis mostly three-point shooting but sabonis has that and other issues the first round guys weren't bad at that many things sabonis is kind of like lamelo ball is probably the first player you could point to on the board last year that had significant issues in three things and for him it was blocks field goal percent and turnover so sort of your traditional guard build and then Dame basically the same issues but much lower in turnovers it's almost impossible to climb inside the top 20 if you have three mediumsized negatives and as great as sabonis was in rebounds and assists and field goal percent he's not that great in scoring he doesn't get that many defensive stats he's a he's like a build guy so as a first rounder that's not the guy that I want to build my Foundation upon and I forgot to click his name and I forgot to click Anthony Edward's name so YouTubers you can be mad at me that's fine I deserve it on that one uh let's move on to the second round the players in the second round currently on the Yahoo board Kyrie Irving Steph Curry Kevin Durant Donovan Mitchell Chad holgren Devin Booker that's the first six back six of Tyrese Maxi Jaylen Brunson Damen Lillard LeBron James Scotty Barnes and de jante Murray your possible steals in the second round are kind of a weird mixed bag because like Donovan Mitchell probably beats this by six to eight slots on a per game basis but is he going to be able to play in 60 some odd ball games it's similar to the Joel embiid phenomenon but when you're a little farther down the board you need to get a little higher in games play Donovan Mitchell is probably going to need to get to uh well similar number to embiid to get to his Mark so by that account Donovan Mitchell is probably a steal of the second round he was number eight per game last year but he only played in 55 ball games that's not enough to get it done and so he finished at number 31 if he wants to get to 16 which I think is the number I have on the screen yeah 16 is his pre- rank from 31 it's going to take probably another eight games to get there so Donovan Mitchell is goingon to need to get to about 63 ball games this year and if you think he can get to that number then anything over that is gravy and that's what makes him a possible steel but believe it or not he's not my favorite Steel in the second round even if I like his per game numbers uh I think Kevin Durant at 15 is probably one of the best deals of the second round so let's talk about him for a minute KD last year finished at number 11 with weirdly low percentages for Kevin Durant and he played in 75 games so he finished by totals at number eight per game number 11 I think there's additional stuff for KD to do and mostly I think it's field goal percent ticking from 52 to 53 or 54 or free throw going from 85 and a half back up to 88 to 90 range that's the way that he claws a little bit higher that's the way that he gets to number nine or 10 per game and then if he stays relatively healthy great so I like Kevin Durant a lot as one of my other steals along with Donovan Mitchell um Steph Curry I like I don't know if I'd call him a steel I don't know that he's ever going to be that top six Steph again so I think Steph is a relatively safe pick here I think Deon Booker is a pretty safe pick at 18 uh I think LeBron is a pretty safe pick at 22 and my final steal is Damen lard at number 21 because last year uh Dame finished at number 74 or sorry 24 on a per game basis but he played in 74 ball game so he finished by 19 by totals that's while shooting 42.4% with the rest of his stuff fairly repeatable if Damen Lillard has a slightly better shooting year 43 and a half 44% shooting something in that neck of the woods because he takes a lot of shots that's a way for him to jump three or four little pockets because guys start to get a tiny bit more clustered here he could be number 14 this coming year with a very small increase in field goal percent there's no guarantee that it happens but there's a possibility that it happens and in my eyes there's almost no possib that he goes much in the wrong direction so my steals of the second round my favorite one is Damen Lillard at 21 my second favorite would be Kevin Durant at 15 and my third favorite is Donovan Mitchell at 16 my busts of the second round believe it or not is Kyrie Irving because he has the same profile as Donovan Mitchell but right now he's going three slots earlier so for Kyrie he's also going to need to get to about 63 games to beat his Mark but because you're drafting him earlier you need it to be even more so you kind of need Kyrie to get to about 65 or 66 to hit his Mark and he just hasn't had a season where he's missed only 15 games in Forever is there a possibility yeah sure of course all of this stuff injury stuff is weird Kyrie could just have a super healthy season but odds are for him to like really beat his mark this coming year he's going to need to get to about 68 games and I just don't see that happen with Donovan Mitchell he doesn't need to get to 68 he needs to get to about 65 so that makes that one a much easier call so Kye in my eyes is a potential bust in the second round because of injury stuff uh I don't want I mean do I go Chad hren I'm worried about Chad I don't a bust though how far down do we really think he's going to drop how okay fine Chad holgren is one of the guys I'm not really targeting the second round there's just too much locked up in the twoo three blocks per game there's a very real chance that he just duplicates last year which would make calling him a possible bust very wrong he might end up as just being fine just even money but I don't think there's much of a chance that he moves up with Isaiah hartenstein in town that's going to crowd him I don't like it when centers play power forward it ends up generally being a bad thing for them it moves them away from the bucket Chad I mean maybe you get some helps side defense defense but often times he's going to be chasing somebody it's just not good like you don't get more shot blocking opportunity as a four than you do as a five because it's a five you're guarding the rim every time down as a four depending on how the play develops you might be able to come over for a weak side help but like that's just not as often as when you're the center and you're just back there you're sitting under the rim for anybody that comes your way so homr scares me he scares me a lot he's a possible bust in the second round uh and then you know the one for me is dejonte Murray I there's there's I I like nothing about this at all Deon Murray is going to a place he was number 39 per game last year he's going to a place where he probably does less right out of the shoot 19 shots and six and a half assists per ball game now he goes to share the ball instead of just with very high usage Trey young he's sharing it with high usage Zion and Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum and Trey Murphy needs to get his shots and I know that he moves in front of a lot of those guys but there just ain't 19 shots and six and a half assists available on the Pelicans unless someone really gets squeezed out but I think it's going to be a coexistence kind of thing and so step back for Deonte means he drops into the 40s per game I think that's a very real chance it happens and even great health might still not get him to this mark on a totals basis so Deonte Murray is my other bust I think Brunson has a chance to be a bust uh he has a nice high floor which helps but Brunson is sort of an honorable mention for bust and Tyrese Maxi is kind of an honorable mention for a bust as well so the guys I do like in the second round as a recap Uh Kevin Durant Donovan Mitchell and very much Damen Lillard I know they're generally older but it is what it is the guys I don't like Kyrie Irving he was an old man squad type but this is too early for him uh holgren too much fear with the stuff tied up in blocks Deonte maray is the big scare one for me at 24 and the honorable mentions on the I don't like them Tyrese Maxi and Jaylen Brunson let's keep moving along we'll do the third round and see what the time looks like on this show maybe we do three Andor four uh my family's going to yell at me if I don't join them shortly uh third round the names in the third round James Harden Paul George Desmond Bane dearen Fox uh lamelo ball and jiren Jackson Jr is the first six I've got to change pages on y so apologies for the very slight delay Jaylen Johnson Larry Markin and Bam out bio Freddy van vet and Jamal Jamal Murray and Carl Anthony towns those are the other six in the third round it's getting harder and harder to talk about Steals and busts because you don't have to go with the players that are presented to you but one of my biggest steals in the third round is James Harden he's one of my favorite players on the board right now where he's ranked I've gone over this one in terrifying excruciating detail he was number 26 in nine cat last year while playing behind Paul George he jumps up into that number two slot he's going to get at least three or four more shots per game more free throws more assists just more ball handling he's going to see a big jump forward to at least I would think the middle of the second round and when he wants to be he plays in a lot of ball games kind have to force him out and the Clippers are going to be fighting for playoff position this year make no mistake they're going to want those wins so I like James Harden a ton he's one of my favorite plays on the board and an absolute steal steal at 25 uh Paul George is kind of fair Desmond Bane is going to be on the other side of this one so we'll come back to him Fox is Fair lamelo ball is a steal at 29 we keep getting told that he's about to move up the board though but lamelo's number 23 last year and there's every reason to think that he would just roll right back into that same general spot the question of course is will he stay on his feet but at 29 you kind of have to take the chance because again as we talked about he has two really bad categories and three if you include blocks so he's a terrific punt guy in addition to being a dude who likely beats this mark on a per game basis anyway if he happens to stay healthy then you're really in business so Lamela ball is one of my other favorites of the third round if you're looking at the back end of the third round my favorites there and this is a tough one lry marinan is a near steal at 32 because he'll likely be a top 18 per game guy but it's the same general issue the guys that are discounted because of Health how many games do we need them to play so marinan last year played in 55 games he was number 14 on a per game basis where does that put him by totals sadly pretty far down the board at number 52 but the nice thing is there if he played in like seven or eight more ball games he can jump 152 slots so Larry falls into that same exact Zone as Kyrie Irving Donovan Mitchell Joel embiid whatever do we think they can get to that Mark and then is there opportunity beyond that the reason I don't like lry as much as the other ones is because there's not going to be any incentive to play him down the stretch where at least with Donovan Mitchell they're gonna probably want to win some games Jo embiid they're gonna want to win some games it's not going to be shutdown mode for that that type of team so marinin is a near Miss on that one but I'll tell you who isn't a near miss and that's Freddy vanet at 34 just obliterated this Mark last year van vet was awesome last season he was number 13 by totals he was number 18 on a per game basis we have every reason to believe he's basically gonna have the same role this year so hell yeah take Freddy in the 30s busts of the third round busts of the third round we're already looking at the back half of that so who are the guys here that I don't like where they're going um there really isn't a bust on the back half of it I like Jaylen Johnson as a guy who could take a step forward cat is going to be fair he'll be fine there Jamal Murray will likely be fine there provided he stays healthy enough I don't I mean like I don't really like Murray here there's no upside to him so I guess you could call him a bust at 35 but I actually like Jamal Murray because his ADP is 45 even though his pre- rank is 35 so his pre- rank at 35 he's a possible bust but his ADP at 45 I like so I don't know six of one half dozen kind of thing I can't really put him on the bus chart when he's not even going where his rank is however Desmond Bane at 27 is not wise he was number 34 last year with nobody around he took 18 and a half freaking shots a game last season and as good as Bane is and as good as he's become with johnar back around and The Grizzlies gun and for it Bane's going to go back down to 16 and some odd shots per game because it's going to be jaw doing all the offensive stuff there just isn't as much for him to do so 23 and a half 24 points maybe that comes back down to 21 rebounds assists that's stff assist probably drop as well rebounds I think would stick so there's a lot to really like about Desmond Bane but the fact that he's going higher this year than he finished last season in an injury plagued year on a team that was falling apart mind you I like I have no idea how he gets into the late 20s this season he's going to have to see a massive spike in percentages and those are hard if impossible to predict so Desmond Bane to me is probably the lone big- time bust candidate of the third round a lot of these guys are just sort of accurately ranked and for that reason we can move on let's do the fourth round and then maybe we'll put a pin in it and and maybe I'll do another show some point on of like the fifth six seven than eighth rounds or something I Haven made my mind but I'd like to keep this one to around 30 minutes if at all possible if at all possible um 37 Paulo BN Caro 38 is Kade Cunningham then it goes Jimmy Butler Jared Allen alrin shenon Jaylen Williams Evan Moy France Vagner kawh Leonard Miles Turner Christ Toops porzingis and Jaylen Brown that's your fourth round which again not a terribly ranked round your obvious and cheap answer here on the bus side is Paulo bonero but I'm going to take him off the screen immediately because you know what I'm not going to take him off the screen immediately Paulo bonero is a possible bust and you guys can yell at me all you want but Paulo is bad at all three points leagues things so I understand why he's here he's at this this rank because he's going to get drafted pretty early in points formats and that's totally fine but I kind of don't care what your hting on the head-to-head side he's a bust here you have to be punting all three of the points League categories for Paulo to get anywhere near this Mark and last year he was number 44 if you were punting field goal free throw and turnovers any sub combination of those if you're punting two out of the three he only gets to like 60 and that's like you could maybe argue with me you be like Dan I'm punting I'm punting turnovers and free throw percent okay great you still don't need to take him at 37 he's still not that high up the board get him at 60 that's where he belongs and if you're only punting one thing he's barely even a top 100 guy so I understand why people are taking him but punting three things both percentages is can be disastrous other names in this round that I don't like where they are not many I mean porzingis that's idiotic uh he'll be he'll be off of that Mark that the next board reshuffling because he's missing half the season so do not draft Kristof porzingis anywhere near this part do not draft him there uh Jaylen Brown is like this is fine for Jaylen Brown if you're punting free throws this is exactly where he ended up last year so that one's fine as well uh I think France Vagner is probably the closest thing to a bust in this department um although again I don't know that it's it's far enough down the board to really classify he was number 69 last year and I don't know what the expectation is for fron there's not more stuff becoming magically available to him the hope I think is that he shoots better from three-point land three-point goes up field goal percent goes with it that's how he jumps around and a half or two rounds but at 44 this is way too early so let's go ahead we'll put fron on the possible bust board as a fourth rounder he should be a fifth rounder at the absolute earliest so this is way too early so your actual busts in this round are Paulo for anything other than a points league and France Wagner the guys I like in this range um I think this is a fair spot for Cade and if you're punting turnovers this probably ends up being okay for him uh alran shenon is going early because it's a punt free throw thing so we're going to dodge those guys Jimmy Butler at 39 is an intriguing one Butler was number 27 per game last year but he only played in 60 ball games so it's this same stupid thing again where we're trying to figure out how much of a discount a guy should actually get I think this is too discounted on Butler which interestingly he's generally going later than 39 last year by all accounts he had a bad season mostly because his steals were down and he was still number 54 by totals playing in 60 out of 82 ball gam so it creates a really nice FL L when you're drafting a guy for Butler near 40 who's going to have a per game rank of 24 or higher we know this about him he'll be somewhere in that range 25 or better as high as like 10 or 11 in the past where all you need is say it with me again 62 ball games Miss 20 he basically hits his Mark play any more than that and he goes flying past it so Jimmy Butler as we throw his face on the screen is one of my possible steals of the fourth round other guys I like in the fourth round Jaylen Williams at 42 we've talked him into the ground on this show talked him into the freaking ground he's going to go up at the next board shuffling but the nice thing about Jaylen Williams is that he doesn't score a ton and a lot of his value was tied up in great efficiency and those types of guys don't tend to go leaping up the board that fast so there's hope there is hope yet that Jaylen Williams cannot price himself out he's number 36 per by totals last year per game he was in the early 40s basically where he's being drafted but he was in the 30s for the last four months of the year and I think there's a very real chance he's in the 30s all season long this year and if he's durable he'll be in the 20s by totals and finally the last player I love in the fourth round is kawhai Leonard and this one is the ultimate will he play enough games because we know with Kawai but the beauty of this one I know this like there's a habit forming here but remember Kyrie was not on my list of these dudes nor was lry marinan some of them don't make the board but Kawai does because kawhai Leonard this is my hot take of the draft season is going to be a top four fantasy player this year it's going to be embiid it's going to be wemi it's going to be yic and then it's going to be freaking Kawai at 4 that's my hot take and I might get that wrong might be five or six but either way he's going to be top six per game this season how many games do those guys need to play to be ranked inside the top 45 I mean that's a that's a gimme Donovan Mitchell who we just talked about was not top six he was top eight he played in 55 games and he was number 31 christops porzingis played in 57 games he wasn't even ranked in the first round last year he was number 13 and he was ranked in the 40s by totals if you're a top five guy kawh Leonard could basically Play 50 games this year and he'd beat this ADP if he gets near 60 he steamrolls it if he gets into the mid 60s kawi Leonard is a first rounder you're drafting in the fourth round by totals Kawai is one of my favorite plays on the board at his current pre- rank which again I think we can all assume it's probably going to go up to at least early fourth round maybe into third hopefully not any earlier than that but right now I would Target the crap out of Kawai I would take him as early as 30 I don't see any issue with that honestly I'd take him as early as 25 in a lot of spots and I'd still feel pretty good about it at 45 it's absolute Madness and he must be on your target board and that's where we'll stop today we'll go first four rounds I didn't know how long it was going to take but I wanted to keep the show around a half an hour which I think I've done so uh good for me I'm Dan besp on Twitter follow old man squad please like rate and subscribe if you've been enjoying our content we're going to get a bunch of mock drafts going this week I want you guys to be joining those and the way you join them the way you know when they're happening is by following me on social media Dan bis the likes the ratings The subscriptions that's all really awesome you're helping us grow I appreciate I love you have a great day we'll have another show coming up later on today we'll have a guest on that one Alex barua will tell us a bit about starting a team with Tyrese halberton so that should be a lot of fun uh yeah yes that's done I was in a bit of a rush today if you couldn't tell but I think you guys like when I talk faster so uh see you later alligator [Music]