Tarik Skubal's Cy Young-caliber season as explained by Nick Pollack, plus other Detroit Tigers pi...

[Music] welcome to days of Roar your Detroit Tiger podcast brought to you by the Detroit Free Press my name is Mark gorash I am here with new Chicago Tigers beat writer Evan pel who has been in Chicago for a full week watched a lot of fun baseball did not visit my grandson I should have been there to help him out with that EV tomorrow you get to drive home I know you're going to like that but it's been a pretty fun week and holy smokes are the Chicago White Socks bad woo dog man are they bad it's a really bad team Mark that is a really bad team and it has been too long in Chicago always a good time but I can't wait to get back home yeah the Chicago White sock are a really bad team the Tigers handed them their 100th loss on Sunday they are on Pace for 123 losses that's three more losses than the 1962 New York Mets who had 120 losses and 160 games indeed the Chicago White Soxs are on Pace for the worst record in Modern Baseball history it is a terrible terrible terrible baseball team now I will say Wrigley Field that was a lot of fun Tigers went 1-2 in that Series against the Chicago Cubs that was my first time at Wrigley Field the atmosphere was just electric and then obviously 3 and0 against the Chicago White sock at Guaranteed Rate field with one more game to play in the series on Monday night so a 4-2 week this week one-2 against the Cubs three- 0 against the white socks with one more to play the tigers are playing some good baseball but again Mark you mentioned they right at the top of the show how bad are these white sock man that is just a brutal team do you know I don't normally like to disparage other teams coaching staff or strategies but the other part about the White Sox being terrible is look Luis Robert Jr good player I saw some arms amidst them getting shelled I was in love with Jonathan Canon the first two innings because he pitches with an Arsenal in backwards that's highly unusual and it was tons of fun then they sequenced him into about you know three terrible Innings left them in too long but he he intrigued the hell out of me the left-handed reliever Eller good fast ball good slider located it on the edge yeah I mean but you get lost just in the terribleness of the players they're putting out on the field besides of course next year's Triple Crown winner lennin Sosa who seemed to have a career Series so far against the Detroit Tigers while he came in the series hitting 208 I did notice he was up to 220 and he was making defensive plays you know that reminded everyone of Ryan Sandberg in his prime so but yeah oh my goodness man the White Sox general manager Chris gats he's got a lot of work to do he has a lot of work to do to steer this thing in the right direction and it's not going to be an overnight fix they're not going to pull a Kansas City Royals with the pixie dust and sprinkle it on the team and suddenly Bobby Wht Jr emerges as do some good free agent signings and suddenly they're back into it no like this is going to be a long process and I think the White Soxs are going to be bad for a really long time it's going to be a minute before they can get things turned around but the Tigers Mark we got to talk about it they're 10 and three in their last 13 games they're 27 and 20 in their last 47 games and if you want to go all the way back to June 15th last 96 games they are 51 in 45 how do we feel about how they've been playing recently obiously the three games against the white socks like you know I mean I guess you know what every team plays their schedule and you're going to have bad teams on the schedule and you got to take advantage of those opportunities when they come every team does that how we feeling about the tigers are playing recently 10 and three in their last 13 27 and 20 in their last 47 a lot more fun a lot more of the real players and if you're a baseball person I won't disparage this next comment but white tacks are kind of a slump Buster don't you think I mean you know so if you know what a slump Buster is God bless you but the teams can be a lot better when Riley green and you know kri bonds Carpenter are in the lineup along with future batting champion Colt Keith yeah the team looks a hell of a lot better let's also because you and I just could not understand for almost eight months of baseball we could not understand why Z McKenry was on the baseball team and he has put together his second Major League caliber month of the last 11 months he's been a tiger hitting well over 320 knocking in runs including a home run and it just goes to show you the white socks are really bad it's a bad team and let's not forget let's don't let's not sleep on your favorite Matt verling as well if we're going to give hat tips and we're tipping the cap to Zack mckinstry for another good month his first good month since last may we got to tip the captain Matt beerling for what he's done this season I know you haven't always been the biggest fan of him Mark and he's shoving all up in your face this season with the way that he's been able to not only handle Third Base which again not a great third baseman but he can play there in a pinch gives you all three Outfield positions but also let's not forget Matt beerling 109 hits 23 doubles five triples 15 home runs he's batting 258 with a 745 Ops he's been healthy he's available that's the that is that is that is the greatest quality is being available Matt beerling has been a good player for the Tigers this year and I think he deserves a little bit more credit than maybe we've given him or you've given him in the past listen all I can say to you is when you use the qualifier of he's been available it reminds me of my sophomore year girlfriend okay so you know all I got to say you is yes those are really good things mat verling is going to get close to 600 plate appearances I you know kudos to him he has not been terrible but you know I tip my hat he's had a better year than I anticipated him having I'm not going to discuss his defensive Third Base because if he played regular Third Base he would have the worst defensive run saved in Major League Baseball he has a 5 he's a solid role player on a good team by the way I I didn't think that was going to reach that potential I thought hey look the Phillies traded him away because you know they had other players that could be better role players than him on a winning team I think Matt ging has proven that he can be a good role player on a winning team I don't think that he needs to be a guy that's starting every single day I think if you pick and choose the matchups and you're able to give him opportunities where he's going to get that ball in the inner third of the plate against certain starting pitchers and you want to put him in games where he's going to get those types of pitches on the inside part that he can turn on and and hit for some damage and then also there's opportunity to slap the other way we know he likes to S the ground ball single the other way is the Matt verling special that's always been the way and now he's gotten into the PO side moving forward if you can find opportunities for him to start and and against certain pitchers I think there's a ton of value in Matt verling as a really good role player on a winning team that's a really good development for this squad as they look to build a winner to have good role players who can contribute on a winning team you need those kind of guys just as much as you need the star players all right so before we get into the big two let me ask you a question it's kind of a loaded question but it's a good question if I said to you right now what do you think give give me the ads the bench on opening day 2025 four players four players are Dylan dingler Zack mckinstry Andy AB bz and Matt verling would you say that's likely unlikely you'd like that you wouldn't like it give me give me a fast 30 seconds on I'd have to really evaluate that because we're not talking about jav or bayas I don't know if he's starting or if Trace Winnie is starting or what that looks like and that that's a whole different conversation and then there's the element of WIIL Perez are we still counting on him do we think he can be a piece it's a very intriguing bench bat with the switch hit component and if he can play some infield too I think he maybe takes over that spot from Zack mckinstry you know considering the fact that he would have the switchit ability but again just the infield defense is such a question mark for Perez so I don't know I think there's we there's a lot to dive in and we have a lot of time before we get 2025 opening day to break down the bench but I do think it's an interesting conversation and I do think Matt verling as a bench piece looks really really good on a team that has improvements throughout its lineup via free agency or trade but you got to make the improvements in free agency or trade if you're going to have Matt verling as a really good bench bat you don't make those improvements he might need to start a lot of games again of course my podcast partner came up with six different reasons why even a good bench might not be the bench because he is just damn insightful that boy he is he is there are reasons why Evan petzold is the beat writer all right let's get two question one of the big two the Tigers have an opportunity to finish you know at 500 finally or get to 500 for the season if they win Monday's game do we think they will finish above 500 in 2024 so let's look at the AL Central standings really quick just to update people on where things are at with the Tigers because when we start talking 500 sometimes it's easy to start thinking playoffs when you consider where the AL Central was last year it is not the same AL Central that it was last year which has surprised a lot of people the Cleveland Guardians at 75 and 55 the Minnesota Twins at 72 and 58 the Kansas City Royals at 72 and 58 as well and the Detroit Tigers at 65 and 66 a win on Monday against the lowly white socks would move them to a 500 record for the first time since early in June the tigers are 10 and a half games back in the AL Central they're also seven and a half games back for the final Al wild card but now they have a 2.3% chance to make the playoffs exactly two weeks ago the Tigers had 0.2% chance to make the playoffs that's where the tigers are at in the AL Central if we were talking last year's AL Central a 500 record would be pretty interesting considering where the division was at this year you got three teams at the top who have really run away with it and the Tigers have been straggling behind for a very very long time their playoff odds are all but gone but we can't knock how they've been playing as of late fan graphs predicts the Tigers to finish 80 and 82 I think we need to look at the strength of schedule because again when there are teams out there like the white socks that you're playing you're going to win more of those games because the tigers are a better team than the white sock hands down no question about it so I think strength of schedule is at least somewhat important to look at the combined winning percentage for remaining opponents is0 466 with 31 games remaining that's the third easiest remaining schedule the toughest teams six games against the Orioles three games against the Padres three games against the Royals three games against the the Red Sox and three games against the Rays easiest teams you got four games against the white socks remaining you got three games against the Rockies three games against the angels and three games against the Oakland Athletics now we have to remember the tigers are playing the white socks right now five runs on 10 hits Friday 13 runs on 14 hits Saturday nine runs on 14 hits Sunday after Thursday's loss to the Cubs though the Tigers had a 62 and 66 record which was on Pace for 78 wins and 84 losses what was the Tigers record last season that's right it was exactly that 78 wins and 84 losses so I don't think we should get too distracted based on the three games against the white socks is still this team still has a long ways to go the Tigers used to be the bad team and the schedule is the schedule you get to play all the games even if the games are against Bad teams the Tigers have more games against Bad teams and they do against good teams down the stretch that's why I think they will finish above 500 but I still think it's too soon to call this a good team like they have a long ways to go they got to put the pieces together there young guys that are on this roster now it is a roster filled with young players one of the youngest teams in all of baseball and there's still a lot to figure out with this group things are trending in the right direction I love the idea finishing above 500 it's a huge win for this team and this organization moving forward but I think they're going to get there because you know the strength of schedule it's not that strong going down the stretch all right so 31 games left including tomorrow if you're asking me can they win 18 games yeah I think they could win 18 games the real interesting question becomes can they win 21 games because if they win 21 games they win 86 games and if they win 86 games it forces all three well it forces for sure Kansas City and Minnesota who are both very good by the way it forces them to win 14 games so they have to play close to 500 to guarantee themselves a playoff spot it'd be a lot of fun if the Tigers could win 21 games wouldn't it it'd be you never know about baseball I'd say the odds of that happening are pretty slim but not impossible you know I mean would you put it at 2.3% because Fang graphs has it at 2.3% to make the playoffs for the Tigers so would you put it at 2.3 or you think it's more than that or less than that the Tigers going on a crazy run like that I think it's three times higher than that I think it's 6.9% no I'm you know do I think that if they played it 9 97 times that they they would only do it three times win 21 games I think there's a difference between the playoffs and winning 86 games I think the odds are probably better to win 86 than they are to be in the playoffs that that would separate those two things but at the same time you know what I've said all year it's never who you're playing it's always how you're playing unless you're playing the white socks unless you're playing the white socks which I think they would struggle to be 500 in the minor leagues in Triple A they are we're GNA probably have to remind everybody how bad the White Sox are another 30 times today because I find it almost an impossibility that they will not lose over 120 games and you I mean this is one of the worst baseball teams in the last 100 plus plus years that's how terrible they are all right let's go to question two the big two how are the new kids performing after more than a week of games how the old kids performing and about the injury mix what's up yeah I mean we're seeing a lot of good things this is a fun lineup when you look up and down what the tigers are able to roll out and to start with the new kids Dylan dingler Jace Young and Trace weeny let's let's dig into what those guys have been able to do Dylan dingler at catcher looks a little bit lost at the plate right now but again he's been okay on defense behind the plate he's going to continue to improve based on the eye test I think with more experience he's going to be a solid catcher behind the plate we've heard great things about him in the minor leagues pitchers in the minors they raved about his game calling and his ability just to manage the game he can shut down the running game with his arm he hasn't done that quite yet to this point in his big league career but he's he's learning he's literally learning how to call games in the big leagues and he is learning how to work with veteran pitchers like Kent MAA and you know Triple H Toledo friends like brand hder and Ty Madden who's going to make his MLB debut Monday against the White Sox like he's caught those guys before but for a guy like Kent MAA he has never caught him before in his life and so he he's learning how to not only work with the guys that he's been with in Toledo but also you know some some new faces some new faces here in the big leagues so I think Dylan dingler is gonna be rock solid behind the plate I think he's gonna be better than Jake Rogers at the plate as a hitter so far he's hitting 170 with one home run two walks and 17 strikeouts in 1 games Jace Young playing Third Base so far he is hitting 226 with five walks and 13 strikeouts in nine games great plate discipline but a lot of swing and Miss in his game and he's not hitting the ball very hard but it's super early need to give him way more time before we evaluate offense but based on what we learned from the minor leagues I'm not the biggest fan of his Bat but I do love his approach and his plate discipline the defense is bad we've already seen it he's already worth minus two defensive run Sav and it's been 68 Innings he's a really slow he's not going to steal any bases he's not going to be great moving back and forth it's kind of been a mess at third base so far the arm just he just looks uncomfortable at third base it's probably the best way to put it I think he needs to play second base we've known that we've talked about it there's nothing new there Trey Sweeny short stop hitting 211 with one home run zero walks and four strikeouts in six games really impressive exit velocities getting the barrel on the ball he's chasing way too much swinging and missing too much and striking out too much without any walks that's a problem that's concerning to me from an offensive profile but when he makes contact he hits it hard he just needs to get the ball off the ground pretty much all his balls in play have been on the ground except for his home run so for Trey Sweeny it's get the ball in the air stop swinging at bad pitches make more contact those things happen well good things are going to come with the offensive performance I will say I love what I'm seeing on the defensive side of the ball from Trey Sweeny he is already worth plus two defensive runs saved at shortstop in just 36 innings I love the respect I love that he's getting the respect that he deserves from the defensive run saved metric he looks super smooth at shortstop okay I don't know if he's ever gonna make jaob bayz flashy plays but he's gonna make all the routine plays he's going to make the difficult plays and he's gonna get the job done day in and day out I think that's what really impresses me about Trey Sweeney is like never gonna go over the top but again like he's never doing too much it just the game seems slow to him and I think that's impressive the game has slowed down for him already ready as a short stop now will it slow down from him at the plate will he ever be able to hit enough to actually be a real Factor I'm not so sure but defensively speaking he looks super comfortable at shortstop and that's a really good sign for the Tigers moving forward because we know they need shortstop though so I like what I'm seeing so far from the young guys when it comes to to dingler to jaay Young and Trey Sweeny there were holes in all of their games but it's still early and they're just getting their feet wet yeah I mean look it's it's hard to judge guys in two weeks I mean I think just any baseball person watching Jan play Third Base pretty much knows now unless somebody waves three wishes in front of him he's not a third baseman just like Spencer Tolson wasn't a third baseman Spencer tolson's barely a first basement for having sakes but yeah they they need to confront the truth about that one and in the famous words of my father don't tell yourself a story and I hope they don't tell themselves a story and decide they're not gonna go buy themselves a legitimate third baseman and be an interesting team next year because they have J Shong that would be a a travesty Trey Sweeney looks passable I mean love the swing on against the left-hander today that was a sweet that was a sweet swing up there today wasn't it man that was yeah no it was good to see I mean that was a cutter that was over the middle of the plate and it's it's a left on left and Trey Sweeny has not been great historically going back to the minor leagues as a left-handed hitter against left-handed pitchers but in a situation like that he got a cookie right over the middle of the plate and he did a good job of just redirecting it he did his job in that situation that was a good sign I think if he can have enough plate discipline against lefties and then hit the mistakes he could be passable as an everyday guy but we still need to see way more with the bat with him I think he he torch that and that's what Major Leaguers do regardless of handedness they torch mistakes Dylan dingler excites me he's a little lost sometimes against spin there was wanted P today I was just shaking my head was kind of laughing it's like you wanted to call him a rookie first first pitch was spin hit the hack out of it to right b c's foul second one had a pretty decent swing almost exactly the same pitch third pitch seemed totally confounded by spin it was the third pitch in a row that was spin I he barely even made a pass at it was in the strike s strike three went back to the dug on I did I didn't quite understand that bad it was kind of chuckling but Dylan dingler hits the ball hard you know he hits the ball hard and I like his defense a lot you know I mean he never thought twice about him occasionally Ball's gone off his glove as a throwing arm holy smokes dude that's he's got Canon he's got a Canon ran and and and Mark Mark the thing too is like we have these young guys and it's it's dingler and it's jayon young and it's Trey Sweeney but you mentioned the injured guys coming back and how they all blend together right like Carri Carpenter you got a lot of swinging Miss in the bat right now especially coming back from the lower back injury that kept him out for two months he's got a lot of strikeouts right now but at the same time that's a middle of the order bat that's a real dude who's going to produce you know over a season you know worth of games just got to keep him healthy Riley green he was an All-Star for a reason you know it's great having him back in this lineup it really makes things so much different when Riley green is in there he was an All-Star for a reason middle the order bat Parker Meadows is like the biggest Difference Maker the biggest XA factor for me hitting 351 with two home runs four walks and 14 strikeouts in 19 games since July 5th when he returned from the list it's elite defense in center field worked his way into the leadoff spot now against right-handed pitchers six Steals and eight attempts during that 19 game stretch that I was just discussing all good things from Parker Meadows back up in the leadoff spot the Tigers love the way that he's handling his at bats both in the plate discipline and choosing the right pitches to swing at but also too when he does swing because of the the swing mechanic change that he made to you know avoid that uphill swing that he had earlier in the season to FL things out a little bit more so it wasn't as much of an uppercut swing he's mentally trying to like hit down on the ball that's the way that he thinks about it and that's caused for a lot more line drives and and just more hits in general he's not striking out as much he's not popping out as much we're seeing more hard contact and and more quality of contact from Parker Meadows he's an exactor for me it's great to see him back Matt vering Le talks about him already what he's done he's not a returner from an injury or a guy who came back from Triple A but he's been solid in the lineup spener Tolson he went four for four in the first game in Chicago against the Cubs since then he is three for 21 with two walks and seven strikeouts in his last five games he has struck out two times in each of the past three games all against the white socks can we give Colt Keith the first baseman glove please I would love to see that happen because it's about time to move on from Spencer torlon it's a lot of fun when he's going good but it's couple games of going good and then it's back to the old version of Spencer torlon that's really frustrating not only for Tigers fans but also for the Tigers so hopefully he's able to turn it around but I'm just not so sure about it but still it's a lot of young players you know mentioning all those names and kind of going through the list starting with Dylan dingler Jay Young Trey Sweeney you get into Carpenter and Riley green and Parker Meadows even Spencer Tolson obviously Colt Keith and col Keith by the way hitting 305 with eight homers 14 walks and 34 strikeouts in 44 games since July 3D not a big fan of the defense at second base but the guy hits and he's going to hit and he's going to keep hitting so a lot of young guys in this lineup there's potential here it feels good it's enjoyable to watch it's a lot of fun all right so before we move on to our guest I'll give you a couple fast data points not including today's game since July 5th because I always like to think the tigers are a different team because that was the day they originally called The Parker Meadows before today Parker was 351 385 58171 WRC plus add the defense in you know what you get out of 19 games of Parker medals including the injury you get 1.1 war and that's holy smokes okay Co Keith before today 297 355 481 since the 5th of July 137 WRC plus didn't even include the final today and his defense has been so improved in the last six weeks shockingly that he was a positive Defender and he was worth in 42 games 1.4 War third on that list is Matt verling at 283 342 455 in a 1.1 war and Zack mckinstry at 248 30345 a 102 WRC plus and 0.8 war in 33 games holy smok 0.8 War for Z kinstry of 33 G all right you know people are doing well well and they deserve to be discussed and just like when we ride them when they're playing poorly at least we could do to be fair is discuss them when they do well right all right so we're going to take a break when we come back we're going to talk to one of our favorite guests Nick poock the founder of pitch list and we're going to get into all kinds of fun data about Tiger pitchers about pitchers in general especially starting pitchers we'll be back with Nick Pac in [Music] 60 all right I'd like to welcome Nick Pollock the founder of pitcher list to the deserver podcast for the second time Nick is one of the best in the business at evaluating pitchers especially starting pitchers he is joining us primarily to break down the saong caliber season of TK scoel but also to discuss other pitching topics pertaining to the Tigers Nick thanks for coming back on the Pod it's an honor to have you again I'll stop it's so good to be here thank you so much for for welcoming back and I gotta say Mark we've had so many DMS it's about time I came back a second time yeah we're so glad you're here man and uh and also let's remind everybody you have your own podcast with Enos sarus called The Craft it's all about pitching it's a great podcast so I hope everyone will listen to that too oh thanks a lot yeah that's a I can't believe I got to do a podcast with inos arus that gu Legend all right so let's start here what are the odds ter scel wins the American League Sai Young Award and can you help put H the greatness of his 2024 season into perspective there are some names out there like Cole Reagan and Seth Lugo and Logan Gilbert framber Valdez George Kirby Tanner H Corbin Burns of course is the name that everybody talks about but Terk scoel like pan far is the front runner to win the American League sa young what are the chances it happens and then what do you think about 2024 yeah I mean I think it's pretty easy to say that he's going to win at this point it's kind of rare to see a pitcher who has both sides of the Sayang argument kind of on his you know in his favor of you have the old school he's got to get wins and of course he has the most wins in the American League 15 and four record then he said well he's got to go long well yeah 97th percenti on Innings at 160 so far he has all the ratios that you would want anything you want to say about FIP yeah he has that at 258 even though I'm not even a stand for for FIP and advanced metrics for the sa young because I don't know about your takes I'm very much about is he doing the two things that matter is he pitching a lot in games and is he preventing runs and for the guy that that comes up with all the advanced metrics to understand how good a player is when it comes to a performance award I don't care about all the other things your only job description is to stop runs from scoring across how many innings as possible and ter scoble does that stupid well I mean it's it's pretty obvious and it's really just an amazing story of a guy coming back from Tommy John being a different arm last year and then sustaining it if not even more so throughout the next year it's it's awesome to see him do it and yeah he should be gting that sa young so scole throws fast ball change up Sinker slider and knuckle curve all of his stuff is nasty but can you kind of explain how he's been mixing how he's been sequencing his pitches to get the most out of this Elite Arsenal this season yeah it's wild I Terk scoble to me does last year when we I think we talked about in the off season I said' look he's came back and he did two things really well he threw super hard instead of 94 and hoping it to hit 95 sitting essentially 97 last year and guess what he's held that right at 97 again with his for seamer but it was really the change up when he showed up that all of a sudden was this brand new pitch and missing so many bats and guess what this year against right-handers which I I want everyone to understand if you are a lefty even though we talk about this being a slider year uh League that is if you don't have a good slider you can't be good well really in truth you if you are a right-handed pitcher you need to have a slider why because you mostly face right-handed matters and you want to throw pitches that go away from hitters so if you're a lefty it's actually a change up League look at the other lefties who are successful you have Cole Reagan's with an elite change up as well Tyler Anderson's having a great year with an elite change up that's how you do it and DK scoble 28% swinging strike rate on his change up this year against right-handed pitch right-handed batters unreal we get excited if we see like 177% swing strike that means over a quarter of the time he throws a change up to a right-hander they are swinging and missing it's unheard of he throws it at an elite strike rate too so he just throws this it's like yeah you can't do anything with it and that's that and what's nuts too is it's a for seamer that doesn't really get the elite whiffs you would think with 97 miles hour like it it's it's 12% swing strike rate like the best ones in the game are 15 16 some are even like 18 and that's ridiculous Brian woo but this isn't that kind of for Seer it's one that works so well with the change up against the right-handers but when you go to left-handers he actually does the thing you're supposed to do which is sinkers you're supposed to go inside two same hiad and batters with sinkers and he does it better than anyone I've seen against left-handers I I have a lot of metrics and I know it can be very confusing but all they're trying to say is how good is this pitch actually and one that you might have seen a lot is Barrel rate or hard hit rate pretty much saying when batters you know they hit the ball hard that's good we know that well we have something called icr which is saying well it's not just barrels like they have the other things that are designated by savan as solid or sweet spot or hitting it on the ground really hard it's called the burner and we actually compact all of them together so instead of just saying hard hit rate we do icr rate which is ideal contact rate and when you throw a pitch if you throw a fast ball 40% is like the threshold you won't be underneath 40% be like oh hey cool this is not so bad for lefties dealing with TK scoble Sinker the pitch he throws 55% against him he has a 15% icr allowed which is ridiculous you do not see that especially when a pitchy throws over half the time to lefties they cannot do any damage against this pitch and I mean that's really all I need to say he doesn't even need to the slider being Elite it's only a 17% swing Striker against lefties it's usually a lot better than that against lefties on lefties and his is fine that's all it needs to be because those two pitches just mess them up and when he does throw the change up yeah it's only a 32% swing strike rate against Lefty because they don't expect it like it's dumb TK scoble is not only having all of the skills and doing and executing them he's doing for a full season you want we see more bumps in the road and he's just not doing that he hasn't slowed down with velocity I mean it's great enjoy it guys like and you have Jason benetti calling it oh my gosh it's a Noak hey Nobody Breaks it down better than Nick Pollock founder of pitcher list nobody calls it better than Jason benetti play byplay voice of the Detroit Tigers Nick you mentioned the change up and that you know teas things up for the next question I'm really curious about is scoel throws a seam shifted wake change up remember he had the change up in 2020 the splitter in 2021 he went back to the change up in 2022 then he had the injury then over the past two seasons coming back from the injury it's been the seam shifted wake change up in the simplest way possible can you explain what exactly is a seam shifted wake change up how is it different than like a normal change up and why does that specific pitch works so well for scoel yeah so I seam shifted wake it sounds like a you know a mathematical term scientific whatever jargon to confuse you and essentially all it's saying is that instead of just the natural spin that you know the Air drag as a ball goes through the air on the seams makes the ball move differently and instead of just actually the Revolutions of the ball and how we're spinning it we're actually making the ball stay in a certain orientation so that as the air goes against the ball as it goes through the air it's pushing it a certain direction so when it comes to a change up and I have a ball in my hand if you're throwing a typical Circle change you can do it two ways one you can throw it as if you're throwing a for seamer and that's just a four seam Circle change and that essentially means you're going to stay on top of the ball the entire time and the the Sim seams are going to continue to move in the same direction and you won't really get seam shifted wake with it because you get seam shifted wake you actually need the top of the baseball to not change where the seam orientation is so it needs to be more sideways and that would mean that the top of the seam doesn't actually move away from that spot which means it's consistent Air drag against the against the air as it goes through so what scoble does is he then throws it more like a two seam where he gets on the side of the ball and as he does that he's essentially having the Horseshoe on top of the baseball and then as it spins that seam is staying there so that allows it to get the extra drop and all of a sudden there you go you have a 30% overall swing strike rate on a change up you know the one of the other things that's so quite amazing about sco's change up is the ability that he has now mastered to repeat it the level of consistency in the quality of how he throws it almost every single pitch he makes so very few mistakes and almost all of them are either where he wants them to go or very good there's there's no floaters in the middle of the plate that I mean yeah everybody wants in a while but it's just always always always such a weapon for him almost every time he throws it now that's what makes it great yeah I would I would even push back and say yes he does make those but his stuff is good enough and the way that he mixes them together it's so hard to tell if that is the change up or the Sinker or the for seamer and that allows him to get away with it we have a we have a stat on our site called mistake rate which is something that I think everybody watching baseball would be like oh yeah of course duh but it was really hard for us to quantify for a while which essentially says when it pitch is over the plat what are the pitches that have double the chance of allowing a hit right those true meatballs those ones that when you throw every hand I remember I used to do this I would throw it in my hand and I would make like a scream of like please don't hit it because I know it was so bad in going down the middle of the plate and we have that stat it's normally 7% or so and for the for seamer of uh seven it's actually about like five in change he throws fewer mistake pitches on that four seamer so the change up is actually a little bit more average in that way however I think part of it with with our quantification of it it's more independent of everything else that he throw and that's a really good Showcase of saying look he's putting in those places that we think would be a mistake yet these guys aren't hitting it they aren't doing damage off of it because it looks just like the Sinker because he's throwing 97 with that fast ball as well and off of that it's really tough I mean we're talking over 10 miles per hour difference with ter sc's change up versus his Force seamer it's it's really good and the fact that he throws so many strikes with it it's a 73% strike rate we want a secondary pitch at like 60% this is 99th percentile among all starting pitchers in the majors for a change up strike rate it's incessant he has the highest csw on his change up in the majors no one has a higher one at 41% that is called strikes plus whiffs unreal and yeah it's it's really just the fact that he throws it 26% of the time we see other guys with great pitches like this they throw it 40% of the time they lean to it so much that they can't get away with those mistakes and he picks his spots so well it's so effective it's always in his back pocket yeah just just sit down and watch more TK scoel guys he's so good all right so let's jump into somebody that is hard to miss especially the last month considering the Tigers have really on on an official basis only been using two starters so let's talk about Peter Montero at a pretty excellent month 3 in one 353 think he's thrown 30 Innings what can you tell us is he's starting to show up on your radar and what are your thoughts about what he's bringing to the table he's he's fine I'm sorry to not be as be more encouraged about Montero I would really be surprised if he's in the rotation for the Tigers next year there are too many options coming down though coming for next year I think with the Tigers he had a great start against Mariners with eight strikeouts he hasn't had a game above five strikeouts outside of that and if you're unaware T-Mobile Park in Seattle has essentially induces 25% more strikeouts than than average Park which is a very strange thing and I still haven't quite got a good answer as to why the best answer I have is the batter's eye is kind of confusing but I so I see that a strikeout Mark against the Mariners and not to mention of course that's a terrible lineup but even that take that line up in other Parks it gets normalized for that there isn't a lot to really latch on to with Montero what I've really seen for the most part it's fast ball slider they're both fine and there are times when his command is good enough and times when his command's just kind of there I'm not I wanted to come in here be like oh man these are excellent skills that I'm really into with K Montero but as I've been covering him since he got the comfortable stop spot in the rotation there really hasn't been a lot for me to say like yeah this is Montara that I think is going to be there and be consistent he does a thing at times called dancing with the Disco which is like Anthony esani of throwing a lot of Sliders over the play for strikes there are some games I've seen that where his fast wasn't quite there he's like all right I'm just going to go to my side hopefully this works and has at times but yeah I think that come this time next year you won't see Montero in the rotation another name brand herder in the bullpen but was a starter in Triple A to lead don't know how much you've watched of him because again he's getting these bulk you know outings as opposed to traditional starts he will be starting on Tuesday though against the Los Angeles Angels so that'll be good to see him getting opportunities there in that first inning as opposed to coming out of the Bullen but Brant herder left-hander does he have any real path to being in the starting rotation longterm term or do you think he's more of a reliever type moving forward so I just want to ask here do you mean Brent herder or Brian Sammons because honestly they're the same person to me let's talk about them both what do you got I mean it's it's it's kind of funny right like they're both Lefty guys who throw fast balls that are not impressive it's about 9192 for Salmons it's 92 93 sinkers from herder what's really crazy is his strike rate is 81% right now on that Sinker which you never you never see 80% that that is not sticking around and he's allowed only 25% icr as I've mentioned before on it he has located well and I'm going to give you something really really lovely here against lefties it's a very small sample this is 48 pitches we have our own quantifier it's plv it's over six and the only time I've ever seen a pitch being over six for a season was job deg Gram's slider so it's so far been really good against lefties and deserve the success he's had I don't think that's going to stick in the slightest overall against righties it is not nearly as good it's a 4.9 which is below average with five being average and it's a sweeper cool but to be a successful starter in the majors especially as left if we're talking about this you have to have a change up it can't be a sweeper sweeper is not good against opposite-handed batters it goes into them it's a lot easier to hit it's all easier to tell that it's coming and then they can wrap the bat around it very effectively and that change up isn't doing much against right-handers so far and it's really hard to sell brand herder saying he's a sinker baller with a sweeper and a developing change up that's not quite there yet that does not speak to a sustainable starter in my view and then with Brian Salmons at least he has a nullifying pitch in the cutter for right-handers I'm a huge fan of of opposite-handed batters seeing Cutters it's essentially like the Sinker you want to be going into the bat off the plate and inducing contact that way unfortunately it's a terrible iccr 57% so far which is horrific on that cutter he's some he's a guy that executes some of them and then doesn't execute on the next one the for seamer is H it's just there's not a lot for me to really latch on to for either of these guys they've been doing enough thus far and they've also faced some weak lineups not including the Yankees for a moment there but yeah herder and Salmons are kind of like Montero as stop gaps sadly yeah they've also faced those lineups one time or two times through the order as relievers there's a reason why the Tigers didn't insert them immediately into the starting rotation so we're out on CER Montero we're out on bran herder we're out on Brian Sammons can we show some love to ree Olsen he's coming back from injury but man what did he do in 2024 to repeat his success of 2023 and maybe even take it to the next level and then again Nick like with ree Olsen what is the next step for him to get even better can he ever enter that sa young caliber conversation because it seems like he has a secondary step to do it where is he at in your mind and and what's the next step for him to truly become Elite yeah it's going to feel like the 1990s actually next year hopefully because you'll all be about the Olsen wins and if you're a Full House Fan you'll get that one so his slider and change up are great Reese Olson I'm I'm a huge fan of those two pitches and there were times this year when he went on that really nice run I believe it was in either May or June early this year here before he got hurt those two pitches were working in tandem really well the biggest concern I have is the for seamer is bad it is not a good for seamer it is not a pitch that I would be trusting and Mark I think I I think you'd agree that if you don't have a fast ball that you really trust in the zone that you're just trying to sneak by you're not going to have a ton of longterm success now with Rees what he was doing really effectively was he was commanding that sinker well leading with the slider leading with the change up at times too that can certainly work but if we're going to take res into that next level of being not just a good great sp45 saying he's going to be an sp23 for the Tigers he needs to do something with the with his for seamer Sinker I don't believe he's going to fix that for seamer which means you have to then lean into cut action on it you need to be able to say look sinkers are for right-handers against left-handers I can't go Sinker I don't trust the for seamer I need to get more more cut on this so that I can go inside properly against lefties that to me is I guess the last piece that I'd be looking for but hey maybe it's just velocity just sayy just throw harder that' be cool that' be great but the shape of this for seamer um is something that I've really been focusing on really just for every pitcher for Seer shape on making making sure I understand that fully of look is this a 97 that gets hit all the time because we see that all the time somehow nathdi got hit at like 8 why because it was bad attack angle which meant that the B path of the ball matched the path of the bat and more intersection points to make contact or they don't get extension they don't get really far out like Matt Manning does which means that that 98 actually kind of looks like 95 96 which is a little bit more palatable things like that and of course not having the vertical break up it's just falling back into a late bat which is a bad thing too so Reen has to fix those I don't think he's going to do that if he's going to keep his slider and change up which means instead of trying to play that game of the for seamer getting that vert and and trying to get the effective one upstairs that you see a lot he's got to shift it to more of the movement profile of hanging along the edges and trying to get movement in location as opposed to overpowering them with it so hopefully he can do that I'm not holding my breath I do expect a good season though R Olson as he gets more time gain comfortable with the slider in change up yeah reson I think the biggest difference in 2024 resen you know mid August to end of 2023 resuls and anything else is he just doesn't make terrible mistakes with his fast ball on the plate so I'm not saying his fast Ball's super effective but he does not put it in places that are going to get him in deep deep trouble and he's really hard to hit when he's throw throwing sliders and change UPS you know 60% of the time so an sp3 that's pretty good sp3 if re sson your sp3 all right let's dub tail into two guys that have now sort of become kind of enigmas one really an enigma to me doesn't seem quite nearly as terrible as it feels like he is the other one I just think that he just doesn't have the aptitude to be good and I'm curious if you think he should be converted to be a reliever so let's jump into the Casey M Matt Manning discussion and tell me what you saw earlier you know Casey is that thrown in almost 60 days and man Manning is probably not going to be seen again this year and Franklin was just terrible this year so tell me tell me give us some thoughts man man Mark you know I remember talking to you over the offseason we're like okay you compared Manning to Wheeler and first I was like what this is that's ridiculous and then I actually I started to buy it because when you I I'm getting into fastball shape and what is it for Matt Mannings last year well he's an extension guy he he has seven feet of extension that's the big thing with uh wheeler that's excellent and he was also flirting at times with 95 the vert on the pitch is fine it's 15 inches at least it was last year and the attack angle really good flat so if you're telling me you get a lot of extension and a flat attack angle and you're sitting 95 plus that is the Wheeler Way also you have a slider that you were comfortable throwing strikes smack Manning and all of a sudden felt okay I can understand this the problem is that he didn't grow is that the things that we got excited about that even in the spring we were seeing 95 plus we were seeing more vert this year being closer to 17 Ines of induced vertical break with that velocity with that flat angle oh my gosh I was so excited I couldn't believe it and then what happens he doesn't make the rotation out of camp and I I couldn't I I couldn't believe it I I I know he was I was just a shocked too I was just as shocked that's a situation that drives me up the wall because I think teams at times think well he just didn't have this one small sample that was good enough and he allowed a few extra home runs or something like that instead of saying okay wait hold on you're executing four seers upstairs really well and it's the best that's ever looked and your slider still really good and this should work and instead now you send them into a whole Loop of trying to get back into it trying to do too much not being no one wants to go back to the minors after establishing yourself in the majors for as long as Matt Manning did and I think that just completely messed them up he hasn't got the velocity back we haven't seen him sharp when he's been up here it's it's been rough for him and I'm excited for him to get the reset button when it comes to next year I mean you guys know better than I do but I'm I'm just trying to rck through it right now TK scoel Flare's gone unfortunately I mean good job good job with FL by the way guys I'm really proud of you whatever you did you got him to get sliders down beautifully was a peak flarity and has been since thank you for that game against the Cardinals I don't know what it was hey that wasn't us that was all Scott Harris president of baseball operations you got to give him a credit there uh well you know on behalf of him thank you guys so I no representing him and so Flare's gone right so you have Olen you have I mean Sor Gibson Longs out until the midsummer or so right I TGs I believe so that's unfortunate but you're got you got to see Manning fighting again in the rotation you should probably see Casey M and with m m was very similar to Manning of fast was looking even better and I was really hoping that the slider would be the thing when I first saw Casey Meers show up in the majors I was like I don't really like the Sinker much and the splitter okay there's a couple that's what everyone talked about but like what is this cutter slider it was beautiful it was the golden pitch for him he could execute it any moment he used it as a whiff he used it to get cult strikes perfectly it was everything and then when he came back and he was starting this year no that slider was just not good he needed something else and the for seamer wasn't enough batters were just sitting on the for seamer and they didn't really care about anything else he didn't have a splitter in nullif fight either and that's that so I see M and I go all right just find your slider like that could happen he could all of a sudden show up with a brand new slider and that's that's that's exactly what the Tigers sent him to Triple A Toledo to do he went down there on an extended rehab assignment four starts and the entire objective was find your slider right figure out the slider come back up and if you can come with a better slider you're going to have better results speaking of our pitcher we talked about him in the offseason Kent MAA signed a two-year $24 million deal $14 million in 2024 $10 million in 2025 is there any hope for a better version of Kent MAA in 2025 it's hard to expect it the fast Ball's not getting better we've seen some moments in this relief stretch he had about six games relief the first four where he was prop open for or better with this slider and then he saw this game against the Cubs and good and it's really hard to buy into Kenta Maya getting you so many quality Innings with the slider and the splitter that are not Elite anymore because the fast ball C certainly are not doing it so I think you're going to be in a situation that Ma is gonna be out of the pen uh in 2025 so MAA and the pen and you were rattling off the names of some guys who could be in the starting rotation in 2025 so Jackson job top pitching Prospect in all of baseball just make the 2025 opening day roster based on Talent alone walking some guys recently but like is it Jackson job time can you keep yes we we said yes too last week we talked about this we said yes can you add to that and and kind of you know do the slam dunk thing yeah so what really bothers me I wish I could slam dunk harder and I can't but I don't have the data that I need for Jackson Joe because he hasn't pitched the Triple A yet and the Tigers have been very adamant to say we are not going to get him to the majors until he pitches in Triple A which is annoying and it also tells me okay he's not up next week fine but Jackson job is he is better than Paul skines that was my assessment of him watching him because Paul skin has three pitches he has a more he has a similar velocity fast that just is a better shape to it yeah Jackson job is so legit and I'm just so excited for the Tigers to give some excuse that he doesn't start out of camp that he needs to be held back for you know for another service time year or something stupid like that he's probably going to start like April 15th or something give that extra two weeks and I really really hate that because job should be here in September I am a major believer that you give a guy a taste before the off season show them what it's like to be in The Bigs that is in their mind so much more than the entire offseason spring training having a taste of that to understand what to prep for is is massive and showcase that they can have success in it I know give job just don't put job against like the Yankees put job against like you know I don't know your white socks or your even your twins fine okay just give them something that's like not the worst and he'll soar he'll be great get that out of the way so then when he shows up in the spring he's just confident as anything he is very legit you're going to be loving scoble and job next year one to it's going to be great and all you can really hope for is a cool then you got Resa a three m m and Manning at least one of those hit and you should be good for four and then you'll figure out the five you'll get some some starter some random guy or maybe Tai man Madden works it won't I'm sad to say I have no expectations for this tomorrow but uh I I wish I did I do not but yeah you'll find something else for that fifth Nick I can say to you about what you said about Jackson job it's like you listen to the podcast because all we can say is yes yes this is what we've been saying for probably six weeks I mean let him come up here let him figure out what he can't do and what he can do let him learn I just didn't understand how many pitches they have now wasted in Eerie it's the stupidest thing I've ever seen in my life I have a good friend of mine stepen Lyman who comes on every year to talk about injured p players he works at ahss in New York physical therapist and everything and he knows so much about all of us and he has a fantastic phrase pitching is attrition it's bullets being wasted and if a guy is ready you know you might know someone on on Atlanta named Spencer schwellenbach who had like four minor league starts it didn't matter you just shut down the Phillies with nine strikeouts like bring them up and especially in a situation for the Tigers like you guys want to compete next year so so what are you doing get the the The Growing Pains out of the way get this guy prepared for it I I hate it I hate it so much I don't think any fan out there is saying that they don't want to compete so I'm I'm we're all right there with you I think everybody want to see the Tigers compete and Jackson job would help them get there yeah other thing too Nick before we before let you go is Tigers fix Jack flarity okay how impressed are you the Tigers did that and then also you mentioned needing to find a fifth starter how about finding another version of Jack flairty who out there in the free agent Market could the Tigers go get on a one-year deal and try to sign in the upcoming offseason even if it's just for a trade and a flip again and they want to find a good starter that they can hang their hat on try to fix what are you thinking man like who's out there that might work and then how impressed are you the fact that they were able to fix Jack flarity well okay so first of all yeah Jack Flair able to fix him I I always struggle with this I I want to give the Tigers as much credit as possible so like you guys fixed it a lot of times it's just going through the motions sometimes it's someone in the offseason that they worked with I think Jack flairy looked instantly better in the spring uh when we saw him in the spring we started to like actually get pumped for him and I don't know how much the Tigers were influencing him before then you know if it was something more of a month in a two a two months in all of a sudden like no the skills are changing and new then I'd buy it I I was him a massive csw darling in all of April being like no we're going to stick with us we're going to stick with us and then all of a sudden he just needed the anger against his former St Louis crowd with his mom in the audience for him to go nuts but I mean I hope that you can find something like that again I thought that deal was great in general just like yeah what the heck and you got you got stuff back at the deadline for this it was it was beautiful when you're looking at free agents for next year there are different ways that you can go and I think I want to ask you guys do you what what kind of bucket of a starter do you want are you looking for your guy that can get me Innings next year like your I don't know your Jose canana type your Shawn manah those guys are both gonna be free agents right those are decent fifth uh sp5 guys sham manai Mor of them canana next year are you looking for something that is one two with ter scoble that would be are you going to be in on Blake Snell train or are you trying to find something in the middle there to maybe take a chance on hope that there's going to be something to jump on that then they be able to maybe sell the deadline something along those lines because that might be Lucas G Leo who is going to be free agents and not going to be returning until about July or so you might be able to get a two-year deal with him and then that would mean you'd see an impact with him for probably 2026 which would be a bigger window I would imagine than 2025 give a year for your guys to develop properly and then if that's not going well then you'll be able to sell them in 2026 but there aren't too many like mid-tier ones I mean you say Kikuchi I'm so in I I don't know how many teams how aggressive teams are going to be but when you have big names like Blake Snell on the market and Robbie Ray and and Corbin Burns and Max freed you might be able to get Kikuchi at somewhat of a discount because everyone else is gonna be propped up so much and they're going to be like no I don't want go to kuchi I want to go after Mex 3 if you jump early and secure something with us that might actually work with well otherwise you have Walker berer and buer oh I think the Tigers could fix buer because I think the Dodgers are doing stupid things uh I I it drives me up the wall I think the approach of a lot of Dodgers pitchers is weird I've certainly questioned the Dodgers before and I know it seems crazy to do that but seeing Bobby Miller seeing Walker berer seeing Ryan pepio being used kind of wrong with their for seamers blows my mind these guys have Elite for seamers that should live upstairs and these guys actually have been living low a lot with those for seamers Ryan pepio didn't start throwing High until he went to Tampa Bay that's why they got him in that deal because they were like low fast so see Walker beer and I think um get him to the Tigers the Tigers understand this that might be something really fun I'm curious what it'll be on the market but that might be a guy of circle for next year I've already mentioned Walker beer on previous podcast I think it'd be awesome we'll see if that actually happens but all right Nick that's all we have for you today we really appreciate your time and your insight into all things pitching hopefully we can have you back on the podcast in the offseason maybe once the Tigers make a couple of additions in free agency we can start to project what the rotation looks like I think that could be a lot of fun oh I would absolutely love to thank you awesome yeah we're already looking forward to it man thanks again for joining absolutely my pleasure thanks a lot Nick everyone that was Nick Pollock the founder of pitcher list it's always a treat to have them on the days of Roar podcast there's more to discuss about this past week for the Tigers but first let's take [Music] break all right that was Nick poock from pitchers list just a wealth of information and just the guest they both have and I love just talk so much stuff with them and so much interesting stuff so thanks a lot Nick so good he's so good all right so let's try to get out of here we got a few topics to disc discuss and we'll call it a night time mden he of the 850 ER in Toledo is going to start tomorrow I'll find it difficult to believe he throws more than 35 pitches he may throw 35 pitches in the first inning had a slightly better month of August than the previous three months which would have gotten a normal pitcher released but he's got an insane whiff rate he is struck out I think 47 hitters in I don't know how many innings they're have 30 35 Innings it's something maybe even less than that but give us the fast down of dirty on time Madden and you know explain to people exactly the real reason why he's starting them yeah well Alex VTO going down with an injury doesn't help it would have been great to have him back he's been used in that opener role the tigers are going to rely on Tai Madden and they're going to give him a go Monday night against the Chicago White Sox you're guaranteed rate field yes he's coming off the best stretch um in Triple A Toledo with a 5.63 ER five walks and 37 strikeouts and 24 innings in four starts yes his best stretch in Toledo is a 5.63 erra it's been a really rough go for Matt Manning in Triple A this season it's it's really been a problem like it hasn't been good is the guy who has a 6.98 erra in 22 starts in the minor leagues that's four starts in AA year 18 starts in AAA Toledo at the AAA level it's a 7.97 erra with 40 walks and 102 strikeouts in 79 Innings allowing 17 home runs so it's a 10.8% walk rate a 27.6% strikeout rate the tigers are calling him up and it's not really surprising because he is eligible for the rule five draft this off season had he not been called up the Tigers would have needed to add him to the 40-man roster by mid November to protect him from being selected by another organization in early December in the rule five draft so instead of waiting the Tigers took care of that decision now at the very least I think Ty Madden is is an interesting arm out of the bullpen because of how nasty the slider is and how many swings and misses the slider gets the big question for him is is he going to be able to really hone in the splitter which is the offs speed pitch that he has he's going to need that pitch to help him against left-handers if he doesn't have that I'm not so sure that he's going to be able to survive as a starter in the big leagues in in Toledo his fastb was the only pitch that he consistently located in the strike zone and even then he had some struggles you know leaking the ball out arms side but it was his primary pitch in the zone which led to hard contact because teams just they lay off the slider they lay off the splitter and when they weren't chasing those pitches out of the zone and they were just hunting in the zone it was pretty much all fast ball and so it led to a lot of hard contact and a lot of damage in the minor leagues we'll see if he's able to make adjustments working with Chris feder and Robin L and wanes you'd have to think that those guys are at least going to maybe give him a little bit of a maybe a couple of superpowers I don't know if it's going to supercharge him all the way up and and turn him into a Reon caliber pitcher but yeah the slider is is insane it's really really good the fast ball sits around 94 I'm just not so sure that he's going to really be able to put it all together to me it's reliever risk I think he probably ends up as a reliever but the tigers are going to give him some Runway as a starter I don't know if he's going to be up here for the rest of the season but at least in the short short term he'll be making some starts for the Tigers and we're going to find out really quick if Tai man has it or if he doesn't have it all right so I'm going to make this really short time Madden I have three words to say about him you know from a future standpoint reliever reliever reliever okay that's one two he has been up to 97 98 many many times I think the P the purpose of tomorrow and I'm going to speculate he gets three or four outings is how hard can you throw in 25 pitch bursts that's what we need to see are you 96 to 99 and then add the slider and maybe get some swing and miss and be a reliever yeah that's pretty interesting exactly what they did with Bo brisky by the way so it's time to figure out if that's what he can be I think the chances of him being a starter zero the other thing AJ was really good about setting the table about and I'm not sure if he was just being nice or he was using it as a precursor for time M and to understand what the what the job is for the next three weeks which is hey come up here we're g to tweak you and figure out how to optimize you and you've been really good about accepting instruction in the last month that's kind of what he said or he was telling them that that's what he needs to do all right let's not talk about time heading anymore because it's a terrible thing to have to discuss a guy with an eight or run average in multi innings in Toledo it's just insane all right jav bayz on the DL again seems like it's his back now causing you know issues with other parts of his body specifically the hip chance that we see him again this year and you know we can discuss the postseason jav bayaz in the postseason but you think we see him again this year yeah I'm not so sure we see hobby byas again the Tigers haven't ruled him out for the remainder of the season but again when you talk about it a lumbar spine and hip inflammation and the fact that he has been on the injur list before for the lower back the hip issue is somewhat new but it's believed to be related to the recurring back issue so like when you combine all those things it just doesn't sound great for ABI bayz he went on the 10day injur list with again like I said lumbar spine and hip inflammation before Friday's opener of the four game series against the Chicago White Socks he was able to have his moment at Wrigley Field he had his first game back since the Cubs traded him to the New York Mets at the 2021 trade deadline in his first game back at Wrigley Field he went 0 for four with strikeouts it was not a great return to Wrigley Field for jav bayz and then before the series against the white socks he goes on the injured list and so I don't know we we'll see if he comes back or not but I just it just doesn't seem likely when you consider that it's it's the same back issue that he's been dealing with over and over and over again and now it's impacting the hi and it just seems like the body in its entirety is is breaking down so they haven't ruled him out for the rest of the season but I don't think he's going to be coming back we'll see what happens I'm not ruling him out either but it just doesn't seem likely as for hobby bayz hitting 184 with six home runs 12 walk 69 strikeouts across 80 games in 2024 all well making $25 million in his third season with the Tigers he's had the back issues before he's owed $73 million from 2025 to 2027 to complete the sixe $140 million contract Ops has gotten worse in each season do the tigers cut ties with jav bayas in the offseason I don't think so but that's a conversation we can have in the offseason because it's not happening right now and if it's gonna happen it's gonna happen at some point in the offseason I just don't think it's happening now I think if there is surgery like if that does happen if he has back surgery I'm sure that Tigers will be interested to see what they can get from Hobby bayas post surgery if there needs to be a surgical procedure if not and it's rest in rehab I'm sure the tigers are going to be at least a little bit curious at can he come back and can he be healthy or is he going to have more back issues you know down the road you'd have to think that if it's just rest and Recovery there's going to be more back issues if it's a surgery maybe something different happens may maybe he can heal from the back issues that he's been dealing with for now several years we'll see what happens there's a lot that remains to be seen including his status for the rest of the 2024 season because we don't know yet but it's a lot of money on the table we'll see what the Tigers you know end up do doing but right now I think hob bayas sticks as a tiger I don't think we see him back again in 2024 but I do think we see him again in 2025 I'll bring one business aspect to this decision and that is very curious the Tigers have an insurance policy and hobby bias's contract because if they do he'll be back he may never play another game but they're not going to DFA him because back injuries are very very very difficult to come back back from especially when you play shortstop back surgeries really strangely don't work very often take my word for it and if the Tigers can get a huge part of that contract paid for by an insurance company after a 60 or 90day elimination period you can bet that's on their mind right now so little something inside baseball kind of in thinking about Hobby buas I'll be curious what the answer is all right re Olson's gonna throw another Bullpen and then probably have a rehab start hopefully within the next 10 days is that the short version of where we're at with Reese sson yeah two bullpens down we'll see how many more he needs if he needs a live BP what that kind of looks like but ree Olsen should be getting out in rehab assignment at some point soon he believes and he fully expects that he will return in September with hopefully multiple starts in September so if that's truly the case he's going to have to get on a rehab assignment pretty soon in order to get back to the Tigers in time to make more than one MLB start for the end of the 2024 season but the Tigers expect Reese Olsen to be back ree olssen expects to be back he's going to have to do a rehab assignment of some type this is a right shoulder strain you got to be careful you don't want to reinjure the shoulder that that's something you just don't want to mess with so they're going to play it safe but Reese Olen believes he'll be back he's got two bullpens down we'll see where it goes from there and how quickly he's going to be able to make a start for Toledo probably multiple starts for Toledo and then hopefully finish out with the Tigers here in the big leagues before the 2024 season ends yeah wouldn't be shocked that they actually saw him throw well and then said okay go home now you see him fine all right this has now been the longest days of Roar in history and you know I love talking to you but it's time for us to get out of here so please like rate share and subscribe wherever you listen to podcast Apple Spotify Amazon your mom's basement I don't care where but listen to it you can always find us embedded in every single EV pets all article at freep.com I'm sure they're giving away great digital subscriptions this week I'd like to thank the Free Press editor Nicole Avery Nichols our producer the man the magic one Robin Chan love to my grandson raen Michael gorash and of course the spectacular Savannah petel till next week peace [Music]