Trump will lose according to crucial '13 keys' predictor | Allan Lichtman

the keys predict that kamla Harris will be the next president of the United States and Donald Trump will fail in his bid to regain the White House Professor Alan lickman is the distinguished professor of history in American University author of the keys to the White House and has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential race since 1984 using his 13 Keys system I'm going to let him explain a little bit more I'm delighted to be joined by Professor lickman now Professor welcome to the show thank you so much uh can we start before we get your prediction which everybody is keenly waiting to hear can you just describe your system for us you call it the 13 Keys what are the 13 Keys yes my system uh doesn't pay any attention to the pundits who have no scientific basis for their opinions it ignores the polls which are snapshots not predictors the 13 Keys tap into the structure of how American presidential elections really work as votes up or down on the strength and performance of The White House party so they look at things like midterm elections incumbency internal party contest third parties policy change social unrest Scandal foreign slm military failures and successes and only two keys have anything to do with the candidates and they have very high threshold keys they ask whether the incumbent Party candidate is one of those once in a generation broadly inspirational transformational candidates and they ask whether the challenging Party candidate does not fulfill that because all the keys are phrased so an answer of true favors the reelection of the White House Party and if six or more keys are false they are predicted losers otherwise they are predicted winners are Keys centered on economic issues as well I mean a big predictor sometimes can be people look at their lives today or the day they're about to vote and think am I better off than I was last time I voted do do things like that play a key part in your system of my 13 Keys two of them pertain to the economy and they don't deal with Emeral polls or public sentiment and remember these Keys have been right for 40 years and they're very quantitative uh the shortterm economic key says the economy is not in recession during the election year and the National Bureau of economic research examines all kinds of Statistics to inform us about that the long-term economy key asks whether the growth per capita real GDP during the term equals or exceeds the average of the previous two terms purely statistical I know we're keeping people waiting for your prediction but I'm thinking we're going to keep them just a little more because I want to find out whether your keys take into account things like for example the polarization that we see in politics certainly politics has changed um than 40 years ago when you started getting uh putting these Keys into practice and correctly predicting the presidential elections do the keys account for or are they not affected by the polarization you see in American politics you know my favorite comedian is the late great Gilda radna whose character Rosanne rosan Dana once said there's always something there's always something unique about every election in 2008 I was told oh my gosh we have an African-American running never had that ready for that then we had a woman running then we had social media I have two answers one you can't change a model on the Fly that's a re recipe for disasters too although I've been predicting since I predicted Ronald Reagan's re-election in April 1982 developmentally the keys go all the way back to the election of another Republican Abraham Lincoln in 1860 when women didn't vote African-Americans were enslaved we had no radio no television no automobiles no planes or an agricultural economy so the keys have survived much greater changes in our politics our society our demography and our economics than anything that's happened recently that's why they are the unchanging North Star prediction okay well I think I'm going to get into trouble if we keep uh your prediction uh back for any longer so Professor lickman who do your 13 Keys predict to take the White House on November 5th my 13 Keys predict we are going to have an unprecedented President we are going to have our first woman president and our first president of African an East Indian descent in other words the keys predict that kamla Harris will be the next president of the United States and Donald Trump will fail in his bid to regain the White House and how many of your keys did KLA Harris wins so to speak well it works the other way how many did she lose remember it takes six or more to count her out I have her down four Keys a two key cushion now couple of my keys are relate to foreign and military policy two Wars are raging they're fluid I did give Biden a success for being the critical person in putting together the Coalition of the West that stop Putin from conquering Ukraine and threatening our NATO allies now that could conceivably change very unlikely but that would still be five Keys down one key short of predicting Harris's defeat so even under the the worst case scenario my prediction Remains the Same could I be wrong even though I haven't been for 40 years of course you know I'm not speaker Mike Johnson who claims the almighty talks to him my system is based on history there could be cataclysmic unprecedented changes that change the pattern of History very unlikely but the point is you never know until afterwards that's why you got to stick to the tried andrue system look at uh something that we saw not too long ago changed the entire race which was that first debate between uh President Biden and Donald Trump I'm assuming that you think your your key system is going to be unaffected by the upcoming debate between KLA Harris and Donald Trump exactly that's why I issued my prediction advisedly before the debate because the big message of the keys it's governing not campaigning that counts and although the Biden Trump debate did change the complexion of the democratic ticket the keys took that into account but generally campaign events including debates do not predict elections and no one has ever successfully predicted a string of Elections by looking at campaigns including debates Hillary Clinton won all the debates and still lost in 2016 John carry won the debates against a very bad debater George W bush and still lost to Bush in 2004 now what your um system perhaps doesn't do it spits out who might win but it won't tell us the margin Professor um if it's a very closely fought debate does that worry you in terms of what we saw last time when Donald Trump lost the election debates don't worry me at all as I explained uh they are not predictions my system is roughly correlated with margins of vote but I don't report that I tell you who's going to win and who's going to lose therefore I put myself out on a limb every four years and I have a lot of butterflies in my stomach having done this for four years because my calls are falsifiable take for example the compilers of polls like that clerk Nate silver he tells you in 2016 you know something like a 75 to 80% chance that Hillary Clinton would win and then when she loses he says see I told you there was more than a 20% chance that she would lose so he can never be right and he can never be wrong I am either right or wrong and everybody knows it what are you like on Election night are you the worst person to sit next to to watch the results come in I am absolutely the worst person although I have done a lot of te television coverage including for the BBC couple times uh in in England but I have to say on Election night 2016 I'm not a sardonic person as you can see but I took a little bit of sardonic pleasure in watching the pundits and the posters twist themselves into pretzels trying to explain why something happened that they assured us could not possibly happen Trump's win I predicted Trump's win uh which you can imagine did not make me very popular in 90 % plus Democratic Washington DC where I teach at American University but my calls are predictions not indorsements they're totally nonpartisan I predicted about as many republican as Democratic wins I called wins for the two most conservative Republicans of our time Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump as well as uh like Barack Obama and now uh kamla Harris Professor thank you so much uh for giving us your time I look forward to see whether your prediction uh has another record breaking here Professor lickman thank you for giving us your time take care and can I say one more thing catch my live show for my analysis every Tuesday and Thursday at 900 PM Eastern us at Allen lickman YouTube there you go uh alen lickman YouTube is where you can find the professor to look at his further analysis well look