Hone Moving Away, ShanShan Western Shift for Japan

Intro General Overview all right hey guys welcome to another topical update I'm a bit late on this I should have did this yesterday but I'm lazy so doing it today so the main stuff that I want to talk about today it's not going to be anything pertaining to the Atlantic it's mainly going to be pertaining to action in the Pacific particularly we're going to be talking about H and we're going to be talking about Chun Chan which is in the West Pacific right so H right now is p is passing south of the Hawaiian islands of the Big Island Hawaii we still have onshore winds it's a bit stronger than what was initially forecast the last time I made an update it was supposed to be a tropical storm a strong tropical storm passing south of the island which is still going to do it's no longer looking to make that northward curve but it's a hurricane now of Winds of about 85 mph so it's Center is a bit stronger than what it was supposed to be gilo's also a bit stronger it's back up to Major Hur to major hurricane status even though it was supposed to weaken down and the wave behind is still trying to develop hon is Hurricane Hone still bringing Ur winds onto the Big Island Hawaii so if we scroll down here environmental conditions will allow H to remain steady over the next 12 to 24 hours as is moving away from the island so you're going to have less tropical storm force winds tropical storm force winds and conditions as the storm moves away so the Big Island I think it's I think it's still the morning over there but as the day goes on if you live in in the in Hawaii conditions to start to improve especially on the big eye and the fur into the day you go however still the tropical system because of the winds are blowing up up slope are still expected to drop an additional 6 to 12 in of rain on the windward side of the island so flooding is still is still definitely possible from that on small islands is 2 to 4 in of rain on the windward side Islands so especially on the Big Island i' still expect flooding to occur from that amount of rainfall especially if you get into a rain band that drops more rain than is a expected but tropical storm force winds or the wind damage should be relatively low it's mainly going to be a heavy rain issue which is still bad and if you live on the other Hawaiian Islands rain could lead to some isolated flooding but the main problem there will most likely be swells from the sea and rip currents so this is what H is supposed to do over the next 120 hours it's as Peak intensity now I don't know if it strengthens later and it's supposed to slowly weaken down until about five days outward degenerates into a Remnant low police are going into the National Hurricane Center you could probably see this if I look at open up Graphics the cone it slowly moves away from the island so by around Monday it's pretty much exiting the ha is pretty much exiting the area around Hawaii with rain still wrapping around and by Tuesday should be pretty far away so that's good so that's good if you live in Hawaii just make sure that you that you are looking at the rainfall that's Hurricane Gilma coming Gilma we won't talk too much about but we'll show it briefly Gilma did reintensification maintain hurricane status for longer than what was an originally forecast about 2 to 3 days ago and as it approaches the eastern coast of Hawaii it should slowly weaken and degenerate as the water cools down up here and environmental conditions should get worse over time we look at the discussion it should be like that yeah it's moving near it's moving near to 26 cus aerm so it's not going to have as much energy to really feed itself as it gets close to the islands and the increasing windshift should begin to degrade as as it gets close to Hawaii so it should degrade and not be a strong storm wind wise but it might still bring some rain in eastern Hawaii so we'll keep an eye on this the big thing that we're going to Typhoon ShanShan Advisory be talking about is typhoon chanan which is in the Western Pacific it's now on the final path to Japan over the past day or so it's been struggling a little bit due to to wind shear that's been cutting over top the system so wind shear has been cutting over top the system due to an upper level load that was situated around here I believe imparting some wind sheer over the system but that upper level low is moving out the way and that's allow and that's also allowing the storm to move farther west than what was originally intended before a landfall point the center of this cone was going right into there's a curve right into Kyoto just west of it not there going a curve right into and just west of Kyoto so the majority of storm surge would have been would have been on the southern coast on the southern coast of Japan Eastward into around into Tokyo now the Storm Center is much moving closer to kushu ion kushu it's going to move into this Bay here which which I believe this towns IUN iuni I don't know I don't think I'm saying that right but it's going to move into that Inland that Inland Bay and that's going to force a lot of water from the sea directly into iini and into the Island surrounding here believe hoshima is also right here so we're going to force a lot more water onto the Western onto these onto into the west side of Japan and then as it crosses over it may become a a flooding threat on the northern coast of Japan and might be a threat for I believe this is the island Hokkaido up here for the island hok kaido later that's five days out but it might become a threat there intensity wise at 27 the 27th which is about 2 days from now is supposed to be at 110 knots so that's roughly about category 4 intensity right before landfall but as is making landfall drops to 85 knots it's is also expected to slow down in this area so we'll take a look at that on the forecast models using tropical tidbits really quickly I'm be trying to look at and see what the storm is actually going to be doing so we can understand what's happening so we're going to look at the GFS globally and we're going to switch to the West Pacific and then we're going to look at chancha more deeply using the hurricane model tool so this just mslp and rainfall just help outside a bit okay Shon is somewhere around here supposed to be here in 6 hours so we have a pressure of 962 is already a typhoon typhoon that has I believe winds around let me check actually current storms actually I don't have to do that go back here this advisory should have it on here I think initialization is up here somewhere it's hard to figure this out but 75 knots is roughly 85 mil an hour so it's roughly 85 miles per hour In Depth Analysis here with this loow of pressure as we take it all as we keep going next 24 hours it's approach roing the Japanese island chain which is the RICO island or the first island chain as a 957 milar storm it should be strengthening PR quickly here so it should be at Category 2 almost approaching a major a major typhoon status around Category 3 hurricane intensity and turn to wind speed and then it slows down for a decent 12 hours over the Japanese island here as it's preparing to make that Northern turn and go into Southwestern Japan as we keep going here it strengthens a bit more but since it's stalled here for so long it might be up well in cooler water wind shear might also be an issue we'll check that out we'll check we'll check all the parameters here while we can 200 M there's a little bit of norly Shear from this trough starting to dig in that's starting to come over this system it's a little bit of Shear starting to starting to appear so that's prob possibly a reason why we're seeing a slight a weakening Trend as it gets closer to landfall but thenen it strengthens a little bit more and thenen it makes its landfall in kushu but as you guys can see if this is 72 hours we'll move it back onto we'll move it back 408 hours so so we'll mark the position here at 48 Hours the storm is here if we bump it up to 96 hours the storm has moved here that's not that's not a lot of time right that's not a lot of space between that long 2day period so the storm barely moves within this area so once it gets near the islands it's barely moving it it stalls just south of kushu and then it takes two days to make actual then it takes about a day to make landfall and then after makes landfall stalls over South Southwestern Japan at least according to the GFS it doesn't stall completely but it slows down a lot and then it starts getting and then it moves Eastward slowly very very slowly so this will be a worst case scenario as in this case because Japan is very mountainous you're going to be forcing a lot of heavy rain over if I can get a better color here you're going to be forcing a lot of heavy rain over the islands over the over the islands as well as you're still going to have a very strong wind coming into the bay and inlets down here in southern Japan so that's going to force storm search into the bay so that's not going to allow water to escape and then you also have and then you also have the fact that you have strong winds on top of that it's going to knock down trees and damage infrastructure this is going to this if this were to play out would be very catastrophic for Japan because you have a major typhoon that's very strong making landfall slowing down as it does so and dropping a lot of rain so you have a flooding disaster and you have strong winds on top of that making everything very hard to actually get get to these areas in Japan due to due to the storm and because it lingers here so long L here so long at at least a tropical stord and hurricane intensity or typhoon intensity ra and just lingers over Japan that's going to be a very big issue but this is just a GFS model if we look at the Euro model the Euro model this one only goes out to 9 hours but even you can see that still the storm moves a little bit more but not by much you still have a 950 mbar typhoon impacting Southwestern Japan on the Euro model in this case you still have a very strong storm and it's not moving that much it's not moving that much as you have this high this trough right over it you have a trough right over the system a trough right over the system and then you have high pressure here and you have high pressure over China so you have steering flow that's going like this and this tru's trying to pick it up so it's having a very hard time actually move through now we'll look at more specific models so we'll look at the halfs a and we'll look at the half b and then we'll look at the parent models for both just see what's happening here so we're going to go to zero hours right so it's 968 right now at least scoring into halfday we have a 970 storm in about 12 hours and then it starts strengthening a lot more as we get closer to the Japanese islands around a day out from now so this will be tomorrow which local time local time for me I believe believe this is this is my time this will be Monday morning but for Japan this is entering I believe for Japan I believe this is entering about this is entering night time this entering Tuesday Morning Tuesday morning early early at night and this is at and this is in the morning the storm Shan Shan's approaching the islands of Japan here I don't know the exact names of each other one but starting to approach the islands you can see the tropical storm force wind band is pretty large especially on the Eastern side and the hurricane core the hurricane core of hurricane force winds is also pretty large as well so as we keep moving that on now over time you have a 945 system starting to see these and see these 110 knots and above pop up here on the northeast ey wall have a 945 mbar storm approaching the sovn coast to kushu that's beginning to rapidly intensify even more and then it slowly moves up and start and you're starting to see the strongest wind start getting into the Sovereign kushu here and you have a storm make landfall exactly in s hushu and strongest intensity is around 937 just as it makes just as it's about to make landfall 3 hours before and then it moves over kushu but it slowly weakens down so it takes about 9 hours about about 15 hours to move through kushu so this is approaching so this is approaching Thursday night in the middle of the night you have the storm wreaking havoc on the west coast of kushu storm slowly weakens more and then it just stalls here here so the storms winds weaken down down as you have this strong wind fetch off the see of Japan ands over land but it weakens down but it's slowing but slowly moving over kushu and Southwestern Japan dumping a ton of rain before it begins re-intensify over VI of Japan due to less land friction if we were to look at aaps a parent of chanan here and we'll take a look at this City surface temperature wise there's a decent amount of warm water that CH Chun can use but because it slows down and you can see that down here there's this isotherm below 26 CS because it's up well and cooler water for how long it's being sitting there as it moves over over kushu kushu the water around kuu begins to cool down due to how long it's been there so you have this cool trail of water here however if we look at precipitation like Ms mslp and Patt we have very high relative humidity and we have a very high prpal water count around 90 mm which I don't know the exact conversion but I think this is closer to 3 to 4 in an hour if we look at total accumulated precept you're looking at about is it 24 hours I don't see it you're looking at about over kushu alone you're looking at at least at least 6 Ines of rain over a large part of Southern kushu and then this rain just overspreads over more of Japan as the storm system just lingers and and keeps pulling up more moisture into onto the mountains here so Mountains will definitely be locally higher so that's probably why we're seeing in SN kushu around here we're seeing levels above 9 in and start to see like bright gold closer to 16 in of rain or more believe this around 300 mm I think I don't know the exact conversions but that's how much rain you're going to be getting it looks it seems that you're going to be getting at least according to this model so you're going to be having a storm that's in R that's intensifying to landfall that's very that's going to be very intense with storm surge coming with that probably not too large of storm surge at least because the Shelf at least closer to this side of kushu is shallower on the west side of kushu might be a a bit more but due to wind direction it might not be you have storm surge definitely very high waves you're going to have strong winds and you're going to have heavy rainfall all in the southwestern portion of Japan kushu if if this materializes if the truck materializes the way it is cuz the storm could go further west or it could shift back East so that's still something that we have to look out for now on the half B we'll see half B we'll see what else we have oh wait it doesn't pop up here so we'll just look at more half at least on 200 M wind shear one reason that rapid intensification probably is happening is because we have this large I'll use black instead we have this trough interaction that's rapidly evacuating air from the center of the storm like this for example right little bit of Shear on this Western The Edge but this trough interaction is helping evacuate a lot more air from the center of shanan that combined with the fact that sea surface temperatures underneath the storm are very warm that's allowing the storm to converge more air at the surface so I'll do a little diagram over here so I'm St to converge more air at the surface um yeah uh do do that a little bit better more at the surface and that and then because of that because of that due to a lot more air being rushed away from the center that's allowing more Rising air down here so this storm is able to rapidly intensify cuz it's getting more convection and due to the hot water underneath it's able to do that more effic efficiently so that is allowing the storm to intensify so quickly before landfall right so I'll leave that graphic up if we look at relative humidity the storm doesn't have an issue with relative humidity that much use an eraser here we get rid of this it doesn't have that much of issue with relative humidity it seems but there might be slight issues with some dry air trying to get in at least according to the half Z Model which is based off the GFS might have some issues but it's able to lock off its Center of circulation from that negative from that negative from that dry air which is a negative impact on the Storm due to due due to it creating down drafts that cut off the warm air coming up into it so it keeps that moisture bubble and that increases as it gets closer to landfall as we have more dry air streaming off the continent of a off Mainland Asia like this as the cold front is also coming down so you have the factor of you have a cold front here a cold front in addition to a tropical system that has a close Center circulation moving over very warm water having the trough interaction be favorable to get all that air out the center and it's making landfall making landfall in a mountainous region which could enhance the sto which could which will enhance the storm's rainfall and might help it a little bit more before landfall this this will be very bad for Japan if this comes to fruition now now things can still change this isn't gospel but things can still definitely change for what Shan Chan can do things could still definitely change we can still definitely see changes to the system pick up the Euro model now we'll look uh no we'll just do it the way we're supposed to come on now fix it all right so if we look at moisture on the European model Johnson still maintain has a dry air problem as the dry air surrounding the north side of the system early as it approaches the island however as it gets closer to kushu the next two days approaching Wednesday and Thursday in Japan that rapidly goes away and that's replaced by this large plume large plume of moisture so the only real dry air getting in is on this western side and I bet even as we keep going that eventually wraps out so then the entire circulation centered circulation it has high moisture relative imunity so the main limiting factor I I think I can see for Shon right now is how much the windsh still affecting it and how much of this dry air does get into the center if the dry air gets flushed out as easily as all the models are as all the models are saying this storm will rapidly intensify will intensify much quicker on its path to Japan if the dry air does get into circulation the overall strength of the system will be weaker but the rainfall the rainfall will still be intense and the storm will still probably be strong enough to be a to be a major issue for Japan you just might not see a strong a category for a stronger type typhoon come into come into Japan but we'll still see very very high impacts these from what I've seeing so far anyway guys I hope this video was 26:01 - Recap and Outro informative I was supposed to get this out yesterday but we got all the information we we have for hon H is moving away from Hawaiian island which is good Gma should weaken as it approaches Hawaiian island which is also good but for Shan Shan the big the big two factors that we have to look at is dry are dry air and the jet stream interaction if the jet if the trough dips down a little bit more and more wind shears over shanan directly that will weaken the storm and allow dry air to get in if the trough interaction becomes more favorable and allows more air to come out the center more outflow to reach out from the center and allowing the storm to pull out to pull out more air and converge at the surface and pull it up into the storm itself then the storm could be a lot Str could be a lot stronger based on the sea surface entance underneath it it also matters how long it stalls if it stalls too long near the islands it might weaken a little bit due to the cooler water underneath If It Moves just a little bit faster that will be less of a problem for the storm but anyway guys I hope this this update was informative I'm going to try and get this out as soon as possible I won't be doing any editing for this video this will just be uploaded as is just with a thumbnail just so you guys can understand hope you guys have a good day and take care