Will K-State Finish the Season Strong in 2024?

Intro and so it gives me confidence too is I I think there's we're hopeful that this Kansas State team's a better one than last year although last year's Kansas State team was really really good just fell apart in those ones score games but that K State team last year and under climate in general they like they've smashed when they when they beat the teams they smashed they smashed the Houston they smashed TCU um things like that and that seems like a stretch where this would be right Houston Arizona State Cincinnati yeah yeah you are correct they they took advantage of those opportunities for sure thanks for listening to KC Sports Network proudly presented by emise bank if you're thinking about starting a business or know someone who is check out EMP prise bank's SBA Loans it's always good to know your options and they can be your partner impossible hello and welcome into another edition of threea I am John Curts joined by Dereck young and Cole manbeck today as we finish our breakdown of the case day 20 24 football schedule just under two weeks away from the start of the Season we are close everybody and you are running out of time precious Breaking down the final 4 games of Kansas State's schedule precious little time left to go get some Ben holiday bottled in Bon bourbon from our friends at holiday Distillery for all of your tailgates it is never too late but you better get out there fast if you want to be ready at Bill Snider Family Stadium or just have something to watch you know week zero games coming up this week we've got that on Saturday there are no more Saturday through the rest of this year that will not have college football so you need plenty of Ben holiday bottled in Bon bourbon on hand as well as some 360 Voda holiday Distillery great K State people who support our pod so please support them gentlemen we have come to uh the most boring portion of the schedule here uh the the final third of the schedule certainly the most boring portion of the conference slate and honestly with the Tain and Arizona games uh in the noncon it's probably most boring part of the schedule here you've got at Houston Arizona State and Cincinnati back to back at home and that stretch I mean those three teams those would be I think for most people the bottom three or three of the bottom four in the Big 12 you do finish with a road trip to ases which will be a difficult one in a rivalry game and certainly something that stands out on the schedule but it is funny how this all works out you you maybe I shouldn't do this maybe I should whisper this but it's like you get you get a little bit of a repri here at the end of the schedule I'm sorry Chris Houston kimman it's it's a it's a little bit of a reprieve here at the end I would agree uh the only things I would fight back against maybe would be three of the top four worst teams probably it definitely is not the three worst in my opinion because I think BYU will be in that company pretty comfortably uh so that's where I sit on that and you already played them anyway so you do get probably the four worst which is why why people do like the Kansas State schedule in terms of um difficulty if you want to pick the wild cats to have a really good year my only thing is out of these four games if we're just going to generally speak about it at the moment and not go ahead first but we can go ahead first into the first one because I think Houston's probably going to come across on the surface as an easy one which by this point of this schedule I wonder if it's not a little bit more difficult than we're thinking it will be now uh and for me I just get like I get trapped into the Willie Fritz thing and I don't know if it's a trap because it's proberbly accurate where I think he's going to make that team probably two wins better than they should be just because he's one of the best coaches in college football in my opinion yeah I mean I I could Echo that dy I mean Kade plays them later so likewise like you said with Kate having the advantage of playing two lane and Arizona early in the season with their new coaching staffs this is an advantage for Houston that they get Kansas State in game nine of the season with Willie Fritz you know getting that team up to speed a little bit more to be the best of their abilities by that point in the season I still think they lack a substantial amount of talent to be able to to compete they actually have like if you look at Kelly Ford's uh win projections Houston is 16th out of 16 and the new look big 12 in terms of overall wins that they're projected to get at 2.1 I think the SP plus has them right around like 3.4 wins Bill Connelly so it's going to be a grind for this Houston team which comes in in the projections of the 2024 SP Plus at number 76 in the country which is 15th in the Big 12 and uh projected to win just a couple of Big 12 games according to the SP plus as well look it it'll just be a matter of like how quickly can you get that defense up to speed that was a huge struggling point for Dana hogerson over the last couple of years it's a defense last year in the SP plus that ranked 102 in the country 14th and the new look 16 team Big 12 Kelly Ford Adam 103rd the f plus of Brian Freema which merges ran freemu FEI rankings and Bill Connelly's rankings had him 105th in the country so it's going to come down to the defensive side of the ball and how much they can get better there and improve they brought in a bunch of different transfers and we all know Willie Fritz's Story look he won two new juo titles at blind College three top 20 finishes at division 2 Central Missouri reached the FCS national title game twice Sam Houston State took over Georgia Southern in 2014 when they made the jump to the FBS he won 16 of his first 21 games and then left to Lane having won 23 of the final 27 games so he's going to get that program on track and he's well first on Texas having been at Blen College Sam Houston State as I mentioned previously in his career he'll get them going but I I don't think it's this year and I don't think any of us think it's this year uh I like K State's odds here to win this game but it might be a little closer and competitive than than a lot of people think yeah he wins everywhere as you just Illustrated and but I I would say the win total stuff I think it's as bad as it looks probably a little bit because of the talent on the schedule like I understand the wind totals being low and picked to be 16th out of 16th in a lot of the advanced models some of that is also because I don't know if there is a team that plays a tougher Big 12 schedule in Houston so some of it's just putting in together the schedule difficulty they play all of KU Iowa State Arizona K State and Utah and I don't think there's another team on the schedule that plays all five of those teams and they play four of them in a row and that's part of this you know path we're on right now they play KU on October 19th Utah October 26th then K State the game we're talking about on November 2nd and then Arizona after a bye week so so their schedule is not easy and then you got the factory of the non-conference where you play two losable games probably because folks think UNLV is going to be pretty solid again and then you got Oklahoma on the road well and they lost at rice last year I mean they're playing a r they're playing a rice team rice is supposed to make a bow so rice rice made a bowl last year they lost to your beloved Texas State team D that you're high on going into this year because you mentioned Texas State hosting Arizona state in the non-con which we can hit on here in a little bit but yeah rice at Oklahoma as a non-con game have to play unlb that won nine games last year KU obviously also playing unlb and the noncom US to as the number one 41 number 41 strength of schedule in the country which is second best in the Big 12 behind only West Virginia um so yeah it's uh it's going to be a tough Hall and FanDuel they'll be tested by the time Kay gets there for sure FanDuel has Houston's wi total set at three and a half for their over under of wins which is the lowest out of the 16 teams in the Big 12 I feel like you guys are kind of all setting me up to make the point that I've been waiting to make here the whole time which is like yeah Willie Fitz will have time to have instituted things and I I am very high on him as a head coach um they also will have plenty of time to have been beaten down with a program that didn't have big 12 depth already and I mean hey he's I'm sure going to do a better job recruiting and just you I mean Dana hogerson was much more just like flashy name flashy offense but not as much of like the actual substance and I think that's what Willie Fritz really provides but I don't think this program is anywhere near the level of Big 12 depth of talent that they really need and if they're going through a stretch I guess Kay was the third game in that so they will have backtack pretty tough games there but you're getting to November I see them being pretty worn down and uh and a little beat up by the time that game comes around so I think it's it's a an instance where K State's depth will help a lot there will probably be more fan enthusiasm there this year I would think but that has been consistently well I guess just last year we had one year I mean that was that was the worst atmosphere in the Big 12 I mean that was a nobody was going to Houston games at all if you look at the crowd shots of that so I don't anticipate it being a very difficult environment to play in it all I mean I don't know I would take case date like 38 to 10 something like that well I'm going take 35 177 and and you're you you're correct on the atmosphere and and remember I said in a prior show like Kansas State for some reason has getting the benefit of playing a lot of teams just after they play Utah Houston's another example of that yeah a couple more nuggets on Houston real quick 60.5% overall production returning that's number 74 in the country offensive returning production seventh best in the Big 12 at 67% that's 47th nationally defense of returning production just 54% Number 96 nationally and number 15 in the Big 12 Kelly Ford gives K State a win probability of 84% in this game that's K State's third highest win probability odds on an individual FBS game on the season did you guys know Donovan Smith is still there I I just learned that recently as the quarterback clearly not paying attention enough looked Donovan Smith he struggled obviously against K State last year 88 yards passing in the game in Manhattan but you he had a pretty solid season other than the interceptions 64% completion percentage 2800 yards passing 22 touchdowns to 13 interceptions 428 yards rushing and they brought in a transfer quarterback for Louisiana Zeon Chris 6 fo three quarterback who can run the football as well rush for nearly 500 yards nearly seven yards a carry last year through for 1,200 plus yards 67% completion rate eight yards to pass 11 TDS to five ints I think they'll have some guys at the skill position and a quarterback I think they'll be okay I don't think the offensive Line's going to be very good they're replacing three starters including one of their best offensive linemen uh and left tackle Pauls and then they've got they brought in four transfers on the offensive line defense I mentioned starting from scratch 18 players according to mil Conelly saw at least 200 snaps last year only four returned they brought in 17 good thing well well that might be a good thing because they were so bad last year they brought in 17 Willie probably saw those dudes was like all right you guys are I gotta get some different ones here real fast I'll take case state 38 to 24 well by the way on the Donovan Smith front I I was double-checking this just a second ago because I was like I remember hearing this and I had to go fact check it for myself CBS Sports put Donovan Smith in a first round mock as pick number 25 in the first round like people are actually pretty high on Donovan Smith's NFL potential because of a a huge arm that he has so you know maybe Willie Fritz is the guy to perfectly unlock that and let him shine he obviously famously did that once upon a time with Michael Bishop at at Blen so we'll see Michael Pratt became pretty good under him at two lane I mean Donovan Smith 6 foot5 235 pounds so he's got the size that the NFL would like I I have a hard time seeing NFL Talent there but who knows I mean maybe he'll unlock something seems like people think that uh that he is going to um let's let's unlock our favorite reveal every single show what is what is dy wearing today what do we have is this it kind of looks like Michigan colors Michigan Y what it really is a Michigan shirt yeah shout out to Michigan in trouble with NCAA again and and in the midst of doing so named Jim Harbaugh an honorary Captain for week one uh okay well Ohio State fan Dy is wearing his Michigan HomeField app today that's that's that's a stunner okay but right after I sent you the jacket the the national championship home I would get that the one that says Champions or anything and I wasn't going to get a second item of gear I do have some standards come on man so dy's got the big the big I done like a thing where I just like lighted on fire during the show like yeah HomeField would have loved that too I'm sure I mean I I literally took a guy tour of Ohio stadium in Columbus last week and they did not say the word Michigan one time I heard that team up north like 17 times you know I mean they the the band had the uh the M's crossed out when it said marching band everywhere I mean boy just I can't believe this but anyway if you want to get Michigan apparel you want to get Ohio State apparel most importantly if you want to get K State apparel the best place to do it is at HomeField apparel go to HomeField apparel.com to uh browse their 100 plus schools that they have there the 50 plus Kate options that are available as well it's the best gear round it's what we're always wearing and it's what you'll see a ton of people wearing at Bill Sider Family Stadium or at bramage coliseum throughout the season we will even give you 15% off your first order just use promo code three mod24 again that is promo code threa 24 for 15% off your first order at HomeField apparel.com and we're back in just a moment we appreciate you supporting KC Sports Network by listening to our podcast you have helped us become the highest ranked Chiefs podcast Network in 2022 and 2023 and don't forget about our daily substack newsletter the best written analysis you can find on the Chiefs straight to your inbox every day kcsn dos substack tocom you know when you discover a new binge worthy show or a song that you play on repeat and you just have to share it with your friends so they can experience just how awesome it is too well that's how we felt when we discovered that mint mobile offers premium Wireless for just 15 bucks a month when you purchase a three-month plan it's such an awesome deal there's no way we could keep it to ourselves friends don't let friends overpay for wireless say bye-bye to your overpriced Wireless plan and switch to mmobile all plans come with high-speed data in unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G Network you can use your own phone with any mmobile plan and keep your own phone number and bring along all your friends did overpriced Wireless with M Mobile's deal and get 3 months of Premium wireless service for just 15 bucks a month to get this new customer offer and your new 3mon premium Wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month go to mintmobile.com threa that's mintmobile.com threa cut your wireless bill to just 15 bucks a month at mmo.it required equivalent to $15 per month new customers on first three-month plan only speed slower above 40 GB on Unlimited Plan additional taxes fees and restrictions apply see mmobile for details well boy mmobile is sure getting its money's worth l because not only are things blowing up on the the kcsn Mint Mobile questions hotline powered by mintmobile but we're getting more and more texts from our friend John Curry uh former kstate athletic director but now uh proud member of our Discord which you can join at patreon.com threa if you would like to be a part of the Discord basically a giant group chat there of Kate fans you can also uh send in your messages to the kcsn hotline 913 24 9913 47652 it is powered by mintmobile do we have that does somebody have this specific message I mean I know what the general question was here that was asked but um do we have the the specific wording for John Curry he seemed to be a stickler for the details back in his time in in Manhattan so uh I feel like maybe we should we should get that but hello official John Curry again I appreciate the shout out that I got Derek between John and Cole who would win in a 10 round boxing match so it is 10 Rounds so the easy answer would be Co or John because he does CrossFit every day Cole probably Co Cole I think would admittedly say he would refuse to go beyond one round yeah I mean by like made it sound like off air such an easy answer it was kind of insulting well now that it's 10 Rounds it is pretty easy let's be honest well what about what about knockout like you know you got Gary Danielson in the Big 12 Champion wi by a TKO if you don't knock Curts out in the first 10 seconds you're toast all right well I'm not much of a boxing or UFC guy so I I don't John probably would get me although I tried to defend myself a little I think I got the reach advantage and for those listening or watching just uh continue to text us at mintmobile yeah well no I would I would love to know people's opinions on this matter well that just actually good so yeah just uh 913 913 47652 4 thanks to our friends at mmobile um I will also say dy I didn't even tell you this before you made your choice but I I took Boxing class at Kate once upon a time for one credit hour it was like um Wednesday nights I feel like Wednesday Arizona State evenings at um was it just I'm not GNA give anyone credit for those classes I mean time I I had those classes too half the time we don't show up I get it well it was it was more boxing experience I would imagine than than Cole had you know it was that place by La Fiesta I don't I don't think it's still there but there was a little KO boxing place that was by La Fiesta so you'd walk right past all the Mexican food and that smelled awesome and then go you know get your ass kicked in boxing class it was it was hard that was very hards not a sponsor but could be so that's what that's what happened to your face oh god wow wow the great School of you all right all right uh okay well on that note the only way we can transition to a game against Arizona State hey maybe that'll be a game where by the end of it uh everyone will be looking around like Arizona State what happened to your face uh because I don't think they're gonna do very much in Manhattan I Arizona state was a little feisty last year I mean they were three and nine but they had some moments where they were feisty and I like I liked Kenny Dillingham um coming off of his time as an offensive coordinator pretty good offensive coordinator at a couple different spots he was but uh man I don't know it it's it's hard for me they don't have Jaden orash anymore and maybe there were some issues there and maybe he was going to get beat out um but that's you know that was really the the big ticket item there that they had in terms of talent and he wasn't even good yeah I don't know man I don't know what the case is really for Arizona State being too spunky this year but I guess I would seed to Florida you guys if you have anything there I have a hard time seen it as well could be the worst team in the Big 12 it doesn't help the prediction here for their sake to that the game is in Manhattan maybe you give them a little bit of the benefit of the doubt if it's in temp P it's not it's at the end of the season where they're either maybe still playing hard for them or already know their fate not being in a Bull game and kind of give in that much quicker too so yeah I don't really get there there's a CH outside UT Martin the biggest lock on the schedule for Kansas state is probably Arizona State and and by the way Derek Arizona State also plays Kansas Utah at Oklahoma State at K State at Arizona have fun and Iowa State yeah or no do they they do not have Iowa State they have the other five they have the other ones another tough schedule and three nonc cons like I you know the betting sights and I think a lot of them had the over under and Cole probably have it like a three and a half or four and a half there's no way I see that many wins I mean they could go conceivably go 0 and three in the non FanDuel has him at over and under four and a half wins but the the odds on that is plus 142 view it Underdog there there is no better bet in college football I in my opinion than under four and a half on Arizona State you know I I wonder because they they they go three and nine last year right and two and seven in the Pack 12 I I'd assume they'd get a little bit better this year I just I I watched that game against Washington last year they went to Washington and didn't give up a def or an offensive touchdown they lost 15 to seven they were yeah I now I think they have even less depth this year than they did last year because of the scholarship restrictions yeah yeah and I mean they were they lost to the USC by 14 they were down seven with about seven minutes left in that game they LED Oklahoma State 15 to 10 at half but who hasn't done that uh lost to Cal 2724 um now the last three losses they had to end the season were to Utah Oregon and Arizona by a combined 63 to 39 that's an average of 54 to 13 margin I will and I will say close losses like sometimes that's a reflection of just not having the coaching shops yet or at all to do that we saw that last year with Colorado with donon yeah for me it's a matter like I I I give Kenny Dillingham some credit because I think he's creative and inventive and was able to find ways to to keep them in games but without a lack of talent like they they hung in there in a few games but I say all this and yet her SP plus a bill Connelly it was the worst Arizona State team since 1947 so they uh they were 107th in the SP plus that's last in the new Big 12 101st on offense defense was 89th and the SP plus special teams 111 and 15th and the new Big 12 a team that's not deep and has the youngest coach in college football I just think that's a bad combo Kelly Ford has the win probability for Kansas State at 90% so to your point Dy it is uh the best win probability among all FBS opponents on kstate schedule UT Martin FCS the only one Higher at number 99 Kelly Ford projects this Arizona State team to actually improve a decent amount to finish 72nd and his overall power rating projects him to win 3.8 games overall still has their special teams 117th offense 84th defense uh 76 defense last year 2.95 points per Drive allowed that was 15th in the new Big 12 and number 123 in the production they're top 50 in the country in overall returning production uh they brought in 31 transfers in 2023 they brought in 29 this last year heading into the 2024 season and also to your point guys they play seven top 50 SP plus opponents number three strength the schedule out of the 16 teams in the Big 12 and you already outlined the games they have to play in League Play plus a game against Mississippi State and the noncon and a road trip to a solid Texas State team I'll take k a 41 Arizona State 13 I'll take it 45 10 and going back to my prior Point like even the winnable games in the league for Arizona State and they have a really tough League schedule are like on the Rope the only one that's like on at home is BYU but they got to go to Texas Tech they got to go to Cincinnati you would like those types of games to be at home they're not if they're going to hit their win total don't they have to go two and one against Wyoming Mississippi State and Texas State I don't think they do Cincinnati that yeah I mean I guess I would I would pick it about 4217 something like that I mean I think they can win at Cincinnati they'll if if last year's schedule tells you anything like they'll probably jump up and be some that surprises you a little bit and they'll probably uh be right there with somebody that surprises you a little bit I mean they beat Washington state that was kind of in that stretch that Cole was talking about last year when they were uh playing a lot of teams close so you know I would I would throw that out there they had Washington on the ropes last year so it's not completely out of the realm of possibility but I I feel pretty good about K State Cruis in here uh okay so at this point what do we all have K State's record at n Dy I9 and one u8 and2 John okay they will go into one final test before farmageddon at the end of the year that is a home game with Cincinnati um look I I thought the Scott saterfield higher was a curious one from the jump he to be to be completely honest with you I find him to be me just fact check this in my head real quick I I find Scott saterfield to be the least inspiring coach in the Big 12 like you know I maybe if you want to argue like aanda or sataki with me I guess at this point I just I don't get it at all I don't see it with Cincinnati this is a place where you could absolutely win as multiple coaches have shown uh everything is there for you to do that I have heard a little bit of like people trying to make the case for a you know little wonky last year but safield can turn this around I I don't but I think Cincinnati might be the worst team plus the Dante Corleone stuff does not help oh either probably one of their best players uh especially on the defense is he not going to it was sounding like in Big 12 media days there was Buzz that maybe he would ah I can't keep up but the drama itself is not necessarily A flattering situation for them look I think there's if you want to make bold predictions on the B12 it's maybe the Dave Arena keeps his job and maybe Scott safield loses it there's a chance that Cincinnati's impling so much that they just you know know can this whole thing by around this time of the year which makes me think that Cincinnati will have probably be a a lot weaker version once they make it to Manhattan I I think it's a blowout I'll say 386 I mean Cincinnati was in the college football playoff three years ago like that was not that long ago y um it's crazy I do think we have to remember that Scott saterfield and AED a Cincinnati team that was out and 26th in returning production oh overall heading into last season so he had quite the rebuild ahead of him uh there's probably a reason fickle left as well obviously Wisconson being an attractive job but he knew he had to replace a lot in that Cincinnati program so not much coming back and so the struggles aren't surprising they went three- n overall 1-8 in the Big 12 lost eight of their last nine games finished the SP plus ranking number 87 in the country and number 13 in the new Big 12 offense Number 96 Defense number 83 similar numbers across the board by alde analytics Kelly Ford gives K State a win probability of 86% in this game that's K State's second best odds against an FBS opponent for KSU so remember what we just said at the beginning of this show that the schedule lightens up for K State when you look at FBS opponents for Kansas State on the entire schedule 11 FBS opponents they play the one two and three best odds in terms of win percentage in those games occurred in this three- game stretch that we just outlined between Houston Arizona State and this one against Cincinnati so you do get a break in the schedule uh 2024 SP plus ranking projection actually thinks that uh Cincinnati will make a jump number 62 in the country and number 12 in the new Big 12 with the offense jumping to number 64 and the defense number 65 Kelly Ford projects him to make a jump all the way to number 53 in his power ratings um at Cincinnati when you look at him defensive points per Drive last year 2.75 number 116 in the country number 12 in the new Big 12 uh they return 51% of their defensive production that's 107th in the na nation and that is last in the new Big 12 though their defense struggled so much last year I'm not sure if that that matters they do have Corey ker really good running back back he rushed for over a thousand yards five and a half yards for carry last year um they bring in Brendan sorby a transfer quarterback from Indiana 6 foot3 235 pounds and look I mean 6.7 yards per pass last year to Indiana 15 CDs five interceptions that's fine but only 1587 yards through the air 57 completion percentage um emry Jones according to Bill Connelly put up pretty similar numbers so have they really upgraded there I don't think so I I've got K St winning this game 42 to 17 I will say Cincinnati got a you know a favor of a of a schedule here too they don't play Utah they don't play KU they don't play Arizona they don't play Oklahoma State oh boy okay well they got the West Virginia 2023 schedule and sounds like they're on that plan so that I mean that'll help and and if they were to beat pit in the noncon which is impossible especially since it's at home they can start four or0 because they open up Big 12 play at home against Houston maybe that's why FanDuel as Cincinnati's wi over under at 5 and a half with minus 120 OD so actually that it's a slight Lane to going over yeah because they got a shot going a 4 and0 to start the year and like I said they avoid Utah KU Arizona Oklahoma State yeah the back-to-back road trips at Tech and UCF that'll be tough but then they they've got Arizona State at home I mean they could be like five- two going into that final stretch honestly what this reminds me of Cincinnati could very much be like B last year where BYU started like five- two and then finished 0 and five do I have that right they were at least five and three but but you'll give them fighting chances even in the last half just because they'll be underdogs but West Virg TCU are home games the schedule's going to help out all right so like my statement was really all about like saterfield what I think of the actual program but they they've got an opportunity here and I do love I mean the contrast of this show it's like me and Dy are just raking in the Cincinnati Vibes our thoughts are all about The Vibes with Cincinnati which are not very good and Cole brings like the actual statistics uh to the fight then we go back and examine a schedule like okay that's why yeah I don't know I mean I still I mean in case they wins no 38 to 20 I'll say 38 to 20 I willon change mine just based off of their schedule like I I think there's still a chance that they underachieve so I still 386 387 Iowa State yeah did Cole predicts I think so right big blowout yeah it took him 42 to 17 you you were the 427 and so it gives me confidence too is I I think there's we're hopeful that this Kansas State team's a better one than last year although last year's Kansas State team was really really good just fell apart in those one- score games but that K State team last year and under climate in general they like they've smashed when they when they beat the teams they smashed they smashed the Houston they smashed TCU um things like that and that seems like a stretch where this would be right Houston Arizona State Cincinnati yeah yeah you are correct they they took advantage of those opportunities for sure all right well this is really the um this is the part that draws the attention on this episode you go two AES at the end of the year November 30th God forbid there's snow on the ground for this game uh let's let's hope that that do not happen well there could be Ames Iowa on November 30th I know I know um boy and I still have nightmares of the last trip to Ames that case they did win but Malik NES almost broke my spirit completely by fumbling he justor he just scored a NFL touchdown the preseason by the way yeah he did and kind of dropped the ball at the end which is exactly what he did in names anyway uh love you Malik but our top storyline here is the Iowa State game it is brought to you by Al Linko for all your home improvement needs uh local company based out of KC case k Staters who support us on the Pod so make sure you go support them uh look this game makes me very nervous you guys know I predicted a nine and three season I've got stay at 9 and two heading into this game so you can you can start to do the math there um I mean it's it's it's winnable and my thoughts on Iowa State in general are that they're going to be a similar type of team to what they were last year I think Matt Campbell's whole Mo has been a guy with a pretty high floor and not as high a ceiling as people then get really excited and want to make him out to be and especially the years when Iowa state has has had the high expectations I mean 2021 they brought all that Talent back the entire Team all these guys that are balling out in the NFL right now and they went seven and six I I'm going to have to see Matt Campbell really break through before I'm going to absolutely trust that so I don't think that this is you know some Battle of two teams that will both be playing for a big 12 Championship spot or something like that um but Iowa State I think would be in position here to play spoiler to keep K State out potentially by the end of the year and it's I mean it's a to go play there it's not fun to play there especially in November their fans are as geeked up about playing K State now as ever and basketball has probably done a little bit of something to that um I don't know this will be a really really difficult task I agree uh I think it actually could be a similar game in terms of how it unfolds unfortunately for John to 2022 I think you're going to have a tight nailbiter game hopefully no one drops the ball or fumbles the ball to one yard line and breaks John Spirit but I think it's going to be quite like that I think a big 12 tile birth is appearance is probably on the line here obviously due to my record at least for Kansas State not for Iowa State do you have to win it to get in maybe not it depends how the league shaked out but you could still obviously as well two losses can maybe still get you out if there's a an eight- one team and a couple seven and two teams right so this is an important game for Kansas State I like the fact that it's a Revenge spot and a lot of those guys have the last year's game kind of stuck in their crawl so there's a little bit of that and to John's point and I was going to say this and he kind of beat me to it IA stay especially or I would stay under Matt Campbell not especially under Matt Campbell because they weren't good before him but I would stay under Matt Campbell a lot worse when they see daav a Target on their back yeah I I think I saw a stat the other day D they're three and 13 in their last one 16 one score games sound right so IA State yeah well one of the was against K State right so yeah yeah one of the wins um yeah you know it's interesting because uh I I was thinking about this last night as I was looking into this game more and I was thinking well you know going there in November if I've got K State at 10 and one you got him at 10 and one Dy that's K State's probably a top 10 team in the country they're gonna have a huge Target on their back going to as and then I'm thinking in my head I was State knocks off a lot of top 10 teams top 25 teams and aims and then when I looked into the Matt Campbell era it's probably not as high of a frequency as I expected from 2016 to 2023 I even heck I for the hell of it I included the co season yeah it it's kind of like a little bit like Kansas State where Kansas state has a chunk that don't include Oklahoma but Oklahoma is really powering a lot of those top 10 wins um because kimman owned Oklahoma so well and IA State I think Matt Campbell got them twice early on in his career as well he got him once in the co season in 2020 and he beat him at o you in uh I think 20 without a quarterback he play Joel laning at quarterback he had a quarterback playing linebacker some John John and I were watching that game down on six Street before the K stay at Texas game that night in 2019 when they they won that game it's actually funny when you go through all their losses to top 25 teams guys every year Iowa is ranked in the top 25 when they play them and they they lose um regardless of where it is at Iowa State seems to lose to Iowa frequently Matt Campbell 4- 10 at home versus top 25 teams but three and three versus top 10 teams so uh in Aim so they've had some success and home before and 10 versus top 25 teams surprised me a little bit I expected that number to be better uh granted some of those games were pretty close so it'll be a very competitive game 2023 SP plus ranking for the Cyclones number six number 37 in the country six best in the Big 12 offense though guys number 67 in the country in the SP plus defense was number 27 we can get into that that offense here in just a moment as to why it was Kelly Ford Adam is the number 34 team in the country offense 59 Defense number 30 at similar things from Brian Freema and the f plus Kelly Ford gives K State a win probability of 58% in this game honestly a little higher than I expected uh it's K State's second lowest odds on the season to win a game behind West Virginia at 52% but keep in mind K State is the only team out of the 16 Big 12 teams that has a better than 50% chance in each of their 12 games in terms of Kelly for win probability and that doesn't mean he expects them to win every game you know his numbers really would project out to probably nine to 10 wins but it gives you an idea of how kstate will be looked upon and favored or or not favored in each game Iowa State and the SP plus projects to be the number 30 team in 2024 in the country and the offense number 61 which is number 12 in the Big 12 and BYU and Houston are just right behind them at 62 and 63 in the SP plus projects the defense to be 17 and number two in the Big 12 behind Utah um net points per Drive last year 45th in the country offensive points per Drive 47th in the nation seventh in the Big 12 and defensive points per Drive number 42 and number four in the Big 12 behind Utah K State and Arizona D you a chime in you got something to say no I just IA State offense last year obviously more explosive than anything so so that's kind of well here's like okay here's here are a couple points I will make one of the things that does you know give me a lot of pause about this game is like I mean Matt Campbell has gotten the better of Chris kimman and he's three and2 against Chris kimman and I think you know there have been a couple spots like last year you think like man that probably I mean that should have been a a climate win certainly the 2021 game I know that Iowa State team had a bunch of talent but the way that started and just getting behind the eightball early that was a really disappoint winning one too you know so I don't I don't love The Vibes in general in this matchup right now that's that's kind of the deal well I don't think that Iowa state is is some World beater this year I think they're probably like a seven and five type team again I don't know I just I can't shake the feeling that I feel this is going to be like a you know was tend to n last time in Ames I can't shake the feeling that this is going to be a tend to nine flip it the other way who was who was the receiver who was their stud receiver that dropped the ball in uh Hinson 2022 Hutchinson okay yeah um you know maybe you got a flip-flop at this time uh and that won't happen and yeah that's what I'll do we 12 to 10 Iowa stay 12 to 10 there Xavier Hutchinson does not drop the ball that puts him into field goal range this time and we'll go 12 to 10 Iowa State I do think we'll probably this thing is the pendulum's going to keep swinging we had a 10-9 game and then we had last year's shootout and a blizzard right so I do see the pendulum swing it back and and it being a low-scoring game because there should be at least frigid temperatures maybe a night game as well to make it even more cold just based off the implications that this game could have so you know I'll say can't stay wins because I think they are the better team and I you know they've kind of been back and forth here climbing a Campell and I think it'll continue to go that way and I don't know that Iowa St was score enough this time to help themselves out I I'll say Kansas State wins like I said I I see it similar to 20122 I'll say 17713 Iowa State number one nationally according to Bill Connelly and ESPN and returning production in the country at 85.7% offensive returning production nearly 90% number three in the nation defensive returning production 81.5% number seven in America Rocco back back at quarterback they pretty much return all their guys Abu Sama is back at running back as well though if you look at Abu Sama like he averaged 16 yards per carry against K State and BYU uh in those two games and then the other games that he played in he had 60 carries and average 3.8 yards per carry last year the only reason why he played as much as he did against K is they didn't bring their top two running backs well and and and that that kind of underscores the the point that I would make about Iowa State as an overall team I know we've talked about this before can't remember if it was on here or the patreon podcast patreon.com threa if you want access to those bonus episodes but I think Kate did a lot to accelerate the hype that we're seeing for Iowa State this year and it's look they're not a preseason top 25 team but you do have a lot of people feeling like you know they're a Darkhorse legitimate Contender for the for the Big 12 title and I think so much of that just came because like a lot of people were watching that game at the end of the year because it was a Snow Game and there was novelty to it and you just get I mean fluky bad horrendous defensive performance and it it it Juiced the numbers big time for Iowa State so now everybody this year is looking at their explosive play rate and all that stuff like man wow I mean if K State just shows if Will Lee is just you know in Manhattan Kansas that night you know if Austin Moore is not he had to play on the sideline that I think was one of the worst plays that he's had and look love the guy but I think you would admit that that was if you're not doing those sorts of things in kind of a fluky atmosphere you take care of business and win the game what like what are we saying about Iowa State especially if they go play the bowl game the same way they did and they're a six and seven team that got you know manhandled there in the bulll game by Memphis so I I do feel like K State went a long way toward accelerating the way people think about this team absolutely I don't think I would disagree with that although again I will say this is a team they could get like they never beat Iowa I get it that's been covered let's say they do five and0 not off the table with with their schedule because the other games in the nonc Conor against North Dakota and Arkansas State and they begin the year with Houston and Baylor in a big 12 and Baylor is at home so five and0 is if they were to somehow do the unthinkable under Matt Campbell and beat Iowa especially since it's a roog game they could start five and 0 the problem their schedule is very backloaded three of their last four games are against KU Utah and K State part of me wonders how sustainable Iowa State's model was from last year though because when you look at it was all relying on explosives as you mentioned earlier Dy offensive success rate overall 123rd in the country number 15 and the new look big 12 out of 133 FBS teams they were 123rd in offensive success rate but they were number one in the country in offensive explosiveness now people will say well that must have been K State that completely inflated the numbers and as our friend KSU fan Jimmy pointed out recently Iowa State coming into manhatton with Senate and the country in offensive explosiveness so yes they took a after the game of K State but it wasn't all influenced by that um offensive power rate 29th in the country 15th in the new look big 12 rushing success rate 132 out of 133 FBS teams points per opportunity 92nd number 12 in the new lick Big 12 um I don't know they're gonna have really good I I I would just say that these people that you're pulling numbers from the Kelly Fords of the world and all those people they would say that it's more sustainable to be explosive than to have an excellent success rate because it's easier to have one great play than to do 20 good ones in a row to score a touchdown FanDuel has them at a seven and a half win total minus 115 odds another another team that Kansas State plays that had Utah the week before by the way yeah doesn't hurt um but I'll uh I'll take IA State to win this one 20 to 17 and K State finishes 10-2 and overall and s-2 in the Big 12 and I still have him in the Big 12 championship guys so I know you're going to push back and wonder how that comes to be and who the hell knows how these big 12 tiebreakers are going to work I I was a little concerned I think John when you interviewed Jee Taylor six eight weeks ago and and he mentioned that Brett ymark and the Big 12 still hadn't really figured out the tiebreakers and might just do so during the season if I recall correctly so yeah I it's gonna be a problem for all leagues now that they're so freaking big I've heard some I heard some grumbling in the SEC the other day from some SEC media member uh about all of that they're they're gonna probably yeah I mean the SEC with the way that goes out and they only play Eight Games making it a little bit even harder yeah yeah they're only doing eight League games so um yeah you're it's a little bit of a shot in the dark there oh I did Cole I wanted to just for uh Corrections sake here a couple things I need to tidy up here one it was 2017 when Iowa State beat Oklahoma in ases 2019 2019 they lost by one 42 to 41 uh in AES so couple of pretty good performances there but it was 2017 when uh when I was they won that and I also need to give you a little bit more info about Al Linko our sponsor as always at the top story line of the week again local home improvement company out of KC owned by K Staters uh they approached us just because they're awesome Kate fans who listen to us here on the show they are locally owned since 1986 that's in Final thoughts and conference championship picks an industry where most have been bought out by national so if you need new windows you need a bathroom remodel they have premium window replacements Coler Luxstone Shower systems they can do new sighting on your home and you don't have to be in Kansas City or Manhattan either if you're in Western Missouri northeast Kansas the entire casc metro Manhattan Emporia Topeka widg rosville anywhere above they can they can get you taken care of you just need to go to Al Linko home.com that's Al NC home.com alen C home.com to check out their services that includes free estimates you can call Sam at 913 96121 65 yeah all right so Cole stay the Big 12 Championship I've got three conference losses here just three Road conference game so I don't think it's um nine and three overall with three League losses you're getting into the Big 12 title game are you still projecting them there D yeah I have them 11 and one so oh yeah you had them winning the game okay okay well yeah that's right all right so you got your Mike Gundy K State ultimate Cole Manick bull in the Big 12 championship game I'm sure here but this is good news John because in uh in 2022 the year Kay won the Big 12 you and I both picked K to lose and aims and Dy picked him to win from what I recall and Dy had them accurately predicted to lose at TCU that year so this is good that Dy is being contrary to us again and that we both have K State losing and aims if it takes a 10 n Win whatever the hell it takes win that game that's great but I've got him 10 and two I think it would be similar to 10 n to be quite honest yeah and and part of the reason guys like I still think again who the hell knows how these tiebreakers are going to work but if you look at like the two losses I have case they losing to I losing to West Virginia and Iowa State okay well West Virginia plays the toughest schedule in the Big 12 39th in the country SV plus projects them to win just under five Big 12 games okay so I'm looking at them I've got K beating KU in Oklahoma state which will be Big 12 title contenders in all likelihood so they'll have the head-to-head tiebreaker over those teams they'll have the head-to-head losses against West and Iowa State if you look at Iowa State they have under a 40% win probability per Kelly Ford in three of their nine Big 12 games that's at West Virginia they got to play that Mountaineers on the road they go to KU and they go to Utah uh they have a 70% win probability in three of the nine Big 12 games they play and 57% chance or less and six of their nine Le with the Finish to their big 12 schedule Iowa State's got to do a lot of heavy lifting early to get them yeah yeah so what I'm what I'm thinking is Iowa State I I don't see them winning more than six big 12 games I don't see West Virginia winning more than six K st's got seven they got the head-to-head on KU and Oklahoma State handing them each a loss how tough is it for you to admit that KU and Oklahoma State are Big 12 tile contenders considering what you've pulled CTS and I throughout this entire offseason well I feel like I've railed more on Oklahoma State than I have Kansas have I not oh not even yeah not even close yeah I feel like that's a little bit of a troll you're just boiling it up for KU at some point oh not at all I would never do anything like that guys I'm I'm definitely not um Oklahoma State yeah I mean can seven and five get you into the Big 12 Championship uh you know Mike Gandhi 11 and 22 versus top 10 teams in his his career Chris five and four lately when they've had a tet on their back Oklahoma state has disappointed I will say here's something guys I would I can I just I'm not going to let that stat just totally and love love Chris kinman but oh God there's three there's three times the sample size for Mike cundy there that's 33 games compared to nine that's more than three times as much I thought you were going to say like I thought you were going to do what some people would say and be like well who finished in the top 10 at the end of the year the problem there is percentages also still favor climbing but the the how how does this work the more you do it if you have 30 it's a better sample size if we give kimman 33 bytes at the Apple the percentage is probably going to go down a little bit give him 33 btes out the Apple he's going to lose like every other game left he almost has as many as Gundy already John I saw you retweet my Tweet now you're hating on it you know when I numbers I'm just not going to let you sideswipe it in this context like it's some authoritative thing it's great it's a great number for Chris kman and that's a part of why he's built a reputation he has the difference the difference between the two is the Oklahoma game climb and beat Oklahoma Gundy never does did you get a side gig as Mike gundy's PR professional like are you doing some hustle on the side Contracting for Mike Gundy uh you know I'm just curious you running running actually I had another viral moment in front of the microphone a few days ago that he's getting dragged for that I actually think he's correct on I don't know that he's really getting dragged for it I was looking into that last night I don't you know I don't there weren't a ton of people like super upset about it my only thing with that is I was whatever I just thought I don't know that's a little if I were him I would just he was already kind of branded as somebody who wasn't quick to turn over on nil and hasn't always been the most player friendly guy I would maybe just cool it a little bit on some of that talk but it's Gundy he's not going to do it so there yes Cole as his PR person I would have advised him probably not to say that which you know he was just saying tell your agent to chill out because the season started so you can't negotiate for more money anymore right now he probably shouldn't have said it for his own good but I'm just saying what he said isn't wrong yeah I think that's a pretty accurate take on the whole situation Cole I wouldn't have to do it I don't even like I don't particularly I mean G Gundy I think is great from a Content standpoint don't really have a particular affinity for him outside of that but you've gone so over the top with your uh Oklahoma State um slander that I've had to I just felt the need to stand on the other side so that's that's it you pulled me into it yeah no all right well couple other scheduling things for Kansas State overall um that I think are important to call out so you look at the you've heard me py the FanDuel over under win totals and the Big 12 look I I don't think a point being made enough that we're talking about is K State schedule we've talked about it some but look K stain and the SP plus their schedule ranked 71st in the country only at 73 and Utah at 81 have weaker strengths of schedule K States Falls 14th out of the new 16 Big 12 teams if you look at the win total over unders outside of K State in the Big 12 there are eight teams that have an over under to win seven and a half games or more Kate only plays three of those teams there are six teams with an over under win total of five and a half or less K State plays five of those teams so I mean that's that's a big Factor as well and then if you look at the final SP plus rankings um over the last few seasons so look at last year 2023 K State played nine top 50 SP plus teams including two top 10 teams in Missouri and Texas seven in the top 40 2022 K State played four games in the SP plus top 10 in the nation and 10 against top 40 teams and yet in 2024 in the projection model of the SP plus he state will only play one top 25 team and five top 40 teams including t five in the top 50 so you're talking about far less teams um as far as you know SP plus top 25 teams Etc you look at the strength of schedule Kansas State played in 20122 ESPN had it number 11 in the country number two in the Big 12 2023 number 35 uh nationally and this year we're talking about 71st and Chris kimman has averaged nine and a half wins over the last two years playing a far more difficult schedule so that's why I'd lean toward the over on the nine and a half win total for Kansas State and than 10 and two potentially 11 and one we'll see well it's it's very possible I mean I think we're none of us are very far apart here you know and that's it's kind of the point about like I think a point that's not being made enough is just what the how Wild of a big 12 year it could be because of the tiebreaker thing because of all the unbalanced schedules and because of how many teams are capable of of being in contention like I think you will have a lot of teams really close and you'll have a lot of arguing and bickering about who's played the tougher schedule and who got the you know the nice kiss from the schedu makers this year I think this very much opens itself uh for for all of that this year so I think it could be pretty wild Oklahoma State over K State in Arlington okay Cole K State over Utah in Arlington all right well then I've got Oklahoma State over Utah uh in in AR if I'm going to stick to it and be consistent so ridiculous that's what we got that's what we got um all right well let us know what you think uh Nick can I have the the number again for the yeah there we go the kcsn hotline powered by mmobile 9913 407 6524 913 407- 6524 you can uh you can let us know your prediction what you think uh thanks to our friends at mmobile for that thanks to our friends at Al Linko holiday Distillery home field apparel uh for all supporting us here on the show it's going to wrap it up for us for Nick Springer behind the scenes for Derrick young and Cole manbeck I am John Curts thanks for listening to another edition of three Mall