2024 Presidential Map SHOCKS Latest Polls in All 50 States!

hello guys welcome to the election feature today has been very interesting and with the election just around the corner we will give you our personal commendatory we live it to our host brain to bring you latest developments new polling data suggests that some states traditionally considered safe for Donald Trump will include states that were not previously seen as safe for him for instance Trump is expected to win Montana Idaho Wyoming Utah and Alaska which while not considered necess neily safe in 2020 went to Trump by over 10 points he is also expected to win North Dakota South Dakota Nebraska Nebraska's first and third districts Kansas Oklahoma Louisiana Arkansas Missouri and Iowa a state that wasn't seen as safe but where Trump still won by significant margins other states include Indiana Kentucky Tennessee Mississippi Alabama South Carolina West Virginia and Ohio although Trump may not win Ohio by over 15% he will likely win especially since his vice president pick JD Vance is from Ohio these are the safe States for Donald Trump but in terms of states that are expected to go to Trump without safe margins Texas and Florida are included Texas home to B aor and Florida will likely go to Trump with Florida expected to be slightly closer than Texas a trend seen in past elections that that will likely continue in 2024 Dave since you're from Texas and worked on Betto oor's campaign could you give us a brief synopsis of how Texan voters are leaning especially with the issues facing the Democratic party thank you Mr EC the Democratic party in Texas is facing significant challenges particularly with Harris as Latino voters are increasingly shifting to the right this was evident in the 2022 gubernatorial election where we saw that many Latino voters view the border is a critical issue they see opportunities here and are shifting to the Republican Party aligning with Trump on issues like the economy education cultural values and even immigration the Democratic party is losing support rapidly and while they may not be the party of open borders their silence on the issue has been detrimental I also believe the Democratic party could lose Arizona in the future but that's just my opinion on a broader scale Hispanic Americans have increasingly voted for the Republican party in recent years please subscribe to the channel like the video and don't forget to turn on the notification Bell you will be able to listen to all current developments from us thank you in 2020 Trump's share of the Hispanic vote Rose to 38% up from 28% in 2016 there's also been a shift among Catholics and as someone who worked on B's campaigns I see the Democratic party failing to connect with the Hispanic Community these communities tend to support more conservative values and while they may not openly identify as conservative their traditions and values often align more with conservative principles particularly in South Texas here many are breaking with the Democratic party on issues like the economy social values and immigration thank you for that insightful perspective Dave this Dynamic is why Texas and Florida are likely to lean the way they do in the 20 24 political landscape even if they were not as strongly for Trump in 2016 or 2020 however we should not Overlook that Harris also has her own safe states such as Washington Oregon California and Hawaii on the west coast she is also expected to win Colorado New Mexico by smaller margins Illinois New York Vermont Connecticut New Jersey Delaware Maryland DC Massachusetts Rhode Island and Maine's First District Harris will also likely win Minnesota similar to Trump's margin in Ohio after tallying the safe and relatively safe States Harris Trails Trump by 12 electoral votes more than the entire electoral vote count of Wisconsin which is quite significant Trump is also focusing his efforts on Pennsylvania and Georgia if Trump wins North Carolina a state he won in both 2016 and 2020 he is well POS position to win the election needing only Pennsylvania and Georgia to secure Victory if Harris wins every other state on the map Trump would still win by two electoral votes if he captures Georgia and Pennsylvania Trump's strategy relies heavily on North Carolina which though seen as a given by his campaign remains much closer than expected despite Trump's unpopularity in 2020 he still managed to win North Carolina while losing other swing States like Arizona in Georgia he also won North Carolina in 2016 despite Obama winning it in 2008 currently betting odds give Trump a 62% chance of winning North Carolina though it is not guaranteed Trump is also likely to win Georgia where demographic Trends are shifting in his favor particularly among minority voters this trend is seen in States like Texas Florida in North Carolina and we are likely to see it in Georgia as well securing the minority vote is crucial for Republicans who have historically struggled in this area but Trump appears to be making significant inroads polling shows Trump with an average lead of about two percentage points in Georgia even with RFK Jr in the race betting odds also favor Trump with about a 60% chance of winning Georgia in recent polls Trump leads by as much as four points although earlier polls showed Harris in the lead Georgia appears to be trending in Trump's favor and is if he can maintain his current momentum he is positioned to secure the 20 electoral votes needed to win whoever bet on that made a lot of money looking at the presidential margins let's check the betting odds right now more than likely oh why is it doing that okay in Arizona you see Trump is still leading the same goes for Georgia Trump is still the favorite there let's move to Michigan okay he's not the favorite there in Nevada he's also not the favorite he lost his odds there which is interesting in Wisconsin let's check yep he's not the favorite Virginia yep okay so the odds didn't necessarily change much on betonline.com they remained relatively the same make sure to check them out using the link in the description below overall this debate felt tied Donald Trump got his points across on issues that matter to voters such as immigration and the economy these are the key issues people care about and he held up well however there were moments where he didn't handle questions well like the one about his comments on Harris's background I don't think he managed that question well at all on the other hand Harris came across as very assertive but maybe not likable enough to sway undecided voters so it's still an uncertain race and we'll see what happens however my gut feeling is that Trump is still the favorite to win the electoral college according to my prediction Trump might regress in some states and kamla Harris could pick up more voters we'll see what the next national poll shows SoCal strategies the pollster we sponsored had Harris leading by two points and we're now doing our first mixed mode poll this means we're collecting data from different sources and combining them into one survey a common practice among pollsters to achieve a more accurate sample this is the first time we're doing it and it's exciting for a deeper look let me pull up my average here quickly it's quite interesting especially after Patrick Bet David showed it on his stream today I had a great conversation with Tom Ellsworth yesterday where I shared what we're doing here at Ono politics and how we collaborated with rasos and reports they even showcased my map on the stream before the debate which was awesome currently according to my model Donald Trump is favored to win the election however when we look at the popular vote Trump is approaching 49% Which is higher than he pulled against Biden Harris is around 46.4 4% leaving about 3% undecided even if she picks up all the undecided voters it wouldn't be enough to win the electoral college she would have to flip two to 3% of current Trump voters and secure most thirdparty votes so that's another significant challenge for her even in the best case scenario where Harris wins all the undecided voters she might win the popular vote by just one point but that still wouldn't be enough to secure the Electoral College Harris would need to make States like Michigan Georgia Arizona and Nevada more competitive to have a shot however even if these states were closer it wouldn't be enough to change the map significantly in her favor if Trump picks up the undecided voters he could expand his lead to a five to Sixpoint National lead solidifying his position in the Electoral College the first 2024 presidential debate between kamla Harris and Donald Trump just concluded and I'm filming this video about 11 minutes after it ended I have about half a page of notes next to me and I'll be releasing this video immediately after filming so these are my completely unscripted thoughts on tonight's debate I'll start from the top and we'll get into the specifics later but to be very clear I view kamla Harris as the unequivocal winner of tonight's debate there are two broad reasons for this which I will break down but the first reason I think Harris won is that she got under Donald Trump's skin one of the reasons Donald Trump was so effective in 2016 particularly during the Republican primary debates was that he managed to outsmart or outtalk his opponents on the debate stage he had moments where he told Jeb Bush the former Governor of Florida who was the front runner for the party's nomination back in 2015 to be quiet while he was talking he also used nicknames like Lion Ted for Ted Cruz and Little Marco for Marco Rubio making him appear in control of those debates for years Democrats have called Trump insecure even leveling him a child or baby for caring about such things but tonight was the first time a Democrats went to Toe to Toe with Trump and managed to Rattle him while Hillary Clinton Joe Biden and aan Obama have made similar criticism none of them managed to truly get under Trump's skin in a debate the way Harris did tonight the second reason I believe Harris won this debate and perhaps the more important one is that she stayed on message in politics and in simple debates the most critical aspect of winning is staying on message and returning to your main points haris conla did this according to my notes she especially improved during the second half of the debate repeatedly emphasizing that she wants to turn on the page from Donald Trump trump can win elections he won in 2016 and came close in 2020 but he is not prodly popular he received P of 46.1 of the vot in 2016 and perent of 46 6.8 in 2020 now coming close to majority while he has a strong B the majority of Americans did not support him in either election this is a significant problem because many voters even those who may vote for him again will still prefer something other than another four years of trump har is effective exploited this issue hammering home the message that America needs to move forward if or advising haris I will tell her to emphasizing that Waters might not agree with her on every issue but that turning to the page on Trump is something many can agree on she has made this a cour team of her campaign saying for weeks that we are not going back tonight she capitalized on that message which rattled Trump early on and allow her to stay focused while Trump seemed erratic throughout the debate so if you enjoyed this quick post debate analysis of the presidential election make sure to like this and video and subscribes more content like this I will see you in next video thank you